frosty's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/314594/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174932-genzyme-s-very-bad-year?source=feed#comment-775449 775449 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:05:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174911-more-foreclosure-sales-please?source=feed#comment-775072 775072 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:55:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174980-did-the-january-effect-start-on-november-1st-this-year?source=feed#comment-775062 775062 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:47:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/36887?source=feed#comment-768630 768630
When the bonus payouts are made we'll see a new fleet of Acuras, BMWs, Mercedes, Ferraris . . . These traitors think so little of America they won't even buy American cars. ]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:22:27 -0500
When the bonus payouts are made we'll see a new fleet of Acuras, BMWs, Mercedes, Ferraris . . . These traitors think so little of America they won't even buy American cars. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/36459?source=feed#comment-758432 758432
Such banks (like his) should be made so that such a consequence cannot happen again as happened in the early 30's and again in '08-'09. This can be accomplished either by breaking them apart into smaller pieces or by much more restrictive regulation - preferably both so that bank meltdowns won't recur.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 09:14:27 -0500
Such banks (like his) should be made so that such a consequence cannot happen again as happened in the early 30's and again in '08-'09. This can be accomplished either by breaking them apart into smaller pieces or by much more restrictive regulation - preferably both so that bank meltdowns won't recur.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172920-clear-rules-of-the-game-for-free-market-capitalism?source=feed#comment-757713 757713
It's difficult for younger people today to imagine life without antitrust, however I remember when Bell ruled: you could only lease your phone from Bell and couldn't buy it, only Bell could install phones and jacks and wiring, all the equipment was manufactured by Western Electric (a Bell company), and Bell controlled both local and long distance rates. Teddy Roosevelt saw these types of difficulties 100 years ago in many industries and thankfully developed some controls against such monopolists.

Tax policy is another way in which "free market capitalism" is compromised. At the federal and state levels there are times when certain industries or businesses might be favored to encourage oil exploration or develop an 'enterprise zone' for example. Even at the local level, property taxes might be waived to attract a business. Political intervention in the marketplace is not 'free'.

And how about 'defense spending'? Will anyone stand up and say this is a 'free market' system? Or are there favored and out-of-favor contractors? And does congress have a say in any of this? Enough said about that.

Publicly traded companies also have to comply with many financial reporting requirements, all companies have tax reporting requirements, and there are all kinds of fair trade laws, interstate commerce laws, and . . . I could probably go on much longer. But I hope I have made the point.

I like the Sowell quote above as it provides for adaptation where regulation causes the private sector to adjust, which then causes further regulation and further adaptation. What is more fitting in an evolutionary world than an evolutionary market system.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:38:05 -0500
It's difficult for younger people today to imagine life without antitrust, however I remember when Bell ruled: you could only lease your phone from Bell and couldn't buy it, only Bell could install phones and jacks and wiring, all the equipment was manufactured by Western Electric (a Bell company), and Bell controlled both local and long distance rates. Teddy Roosevelt saw these types of difficulties 100 years ago in many industries and thankfully developed some controls against such monopolists.

Tax policy is another way in which "free market capitalism" is compromised. At the federal and state levels there are times when certain industries or businesses might be favored to encourage oil exploration or develop an 'enterprise zone' for example. Even at the local level, property taxes might be waived to attract a business. Political intervention in the marketplace is not 'free'.

And how about 'defense spending'? Will anyone stand up and say this is a 'free market' system? Or are there favored and out-of-favor contractors? And does congress have a say in any of this? Enough said about that.

Publicly traded companies also have to comply with many financial reporting requirements, all companies have tax reporting requirements, and there are all kinds of fair trade laws, interstate commerce laws, and . . . I could probably go on much longer. But I hope I have made the point.

I like the Sowell quote above as it provides for adaptation where regulation causes the private sector to adjust, which then causes further regulation and further adaptation. What is more fitting in an evolutionary world than an evolutionary market system.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171848-report-from-europe-non-farm-payrolls-to-bring-the-bears-out?source=feed#comment-752293 752293
www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/.../]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 09:55:41 -0500
www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171848-report-from-europe-non-farm-payrolls-to-bring-the-bears-out?source=feed#comment-749729 749729
I really enjoy reading your articles . . . and the "and finally's". This one concerning the charity of our bankers is just ok for its sarcasm and/or irony or perhaps I'm reading too much into it. But it did bring to mind that Goldman bonus number ($20B by year-end est.) which I have been trying to put into perspective. So I divided by $50,000, roughly the average American salary, and I get 400,000 average American jobs. I've done this over and over thinking my Intel chip is going whacky, but it alway comes up the same. Am I in error - do you have a chip that gives a different answer? Then I went to the state of Connecticut's web site (I live here) and discovered that our state's budget is $17.5B! Wow! I thought of searching out other states' budgets and nations' budgets to help put that number in perspective - it would be interesting.

Anyone who reads or listens to any of the press is now jaded by talk of billions and even trillions of dollars and no longer has a perspective of what a billion or $20B represents. We're sort of innoculated against understanding it or appropriately reacting to it.

So I was hoping that you, or one of your readers, with more research tools and expertise than I, might do an expose in terms that most people can put in perspective, of what these bonus amounts are worth (in terms other than cars and yachts). It would make for a very interesting article.]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 09:14:37 -0500
I really enjoy reading your articles . . . and the "and finally's". This one concerning the charity of our bankers is just ok for its sarcasm and/or irony or perhaps I'm reading too much into it. But it did bring to mind that Goldman bonus number ($20B by year-end est.) which I have been trying to put into perspective. So I divided by $50,000, roughly the average American salary, and I get 400,000 average American jobs. I've done this over and over thinking my Intel chip is going whacky, but it alway comes up the same. Am I in error - do you have a chip that gives a different answer? Then I went to the state of Connecticut's web site (I live here) and discovered that our state's budget is $17.5B! Wow! I thought of searching out other states' budgets and nations' budgets to help put that number in perspective - it would be interesting.

Anyone who reads or listens to any of the press is now jaded by talk of billions and even trillions of dollars and no longer has a perspective of what a billion or $20B represents. We're sort of innoculated against understanding it or appropriately reacting to it.

So I was hoping that you, or one of your readers, with more research tools and expertise than I, might do an expose in terms that most people can put in perspective, of what these bonus amounts are worth (in terms other than cars and yachts). It would make for a very interesting article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/35622?source=feed#comment-741277 741277 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:30:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169710-why-too-big-to-fail-shouldn-t-be-codified?source=feed#comment-735482 735482

On Oct 29 10:52 AM frosty wrote:

> Glass-Steagall worked well for 60 years and look what]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:55:09 -0400

On Oct 29 10:52 AM frosty wrote:

> Glass-Steagall worked well for 60 years and look what]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169710-why-too-big-to-fail-shouldn-t-be-codified?source=feed#comment-735468 735468 Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:52:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168697-why-apple-is-worth-80?source=feed#comment-731500 731500 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 19:36:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168697-why-apple-is-worth-80?source=feed#comment-731499 731499 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 19:35:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/34946?source=feed#comment-728291 728291
Greed and opulence at the expense of others, especially coupled indifference, bring down dynasties. It can't go on forever.]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 11:00:19 -0400
Greed and opulence at the expense of others, especially coupled indifference, bring down dynasties. It can't go on forever.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/34924?source=feed#comment-727491 727491 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:58:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168081-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-725024 725024 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:23:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/34565?source=feed#comment-722444 722444 Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:01:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33804?source=feed#comment-707399 707399
Buy Ford/Chevy!]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 15:12:30 -0400
Buy Ford/Chevy!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165229-us-dollar-i-m-not-dead-yet?source=feed#comment-706938 706938
So, is devaluation bad? It depends on what you have to sell. If you want sell Chevys to foreigners, it's good. If you're selling BMW imports to Americans, it's not good. As the author suggests, consider all the world's currencies structured in a matrix. For periods of time you will see some currencies relative to others with + trends and during other periods with - trends. Recently the dollar has been in a minus trend against some currencies. It has happened before - during the 70's oil crisis when news reports feared that the Saudi's were going to buy everything of value in America (dollar cheap compared to riad), and in the 80's when the Japanese business model threatened to conquer the commercial (they even bought Rockerfeller Center!).

So once again we're in a pretty deep funk. However, there is still no economically significant country on earth with a political system that fosters freedom of intellect, invention, and enterprise and with an educational outreach system that reaches the vast majority of its residents. In the end, when people decide to hold dollars, they're betting on the future of America relative to others and that it's safer to hold dollars than holding bolivars, or pesos, or Euros. You may want to bet on the euro or yen in the short run, but in the long run the dollar will still prove a safer bet. ]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:10:30 -0400
So, is devaluation bad? It depends on what you have to sell. If you want sell Chevys to foreigners, it's good. If you're selling BMW imports to Americans, it's not good. As the author suggests, consider all the world's currencies structured in a matrix. For periods of time you will see some currencies relative to others with + trends and during other periods with - trends. Recently the dollar has been in a minus trend against some currencies. It has happened before - during the 70's oil crisis when news reports feared that the Saudi's were going to buy everything of value in America (dollar cheap compared to riad), and in the 80's when the Japanese business model threatened to conquer the commercial (they even bought Rockerfeller Center!).

So once again we're in a pretty deep funk. However, there is still no economically significant country on earth with a political system that fosters freedom of intellect, invention, and enterprise and with an educational outreach system that reaches the vast majority of its residents. In the end, when people decide to hold dollars, they're betting on the future of America relative to others and that it's safer to hold dollars than holding bolivars, or pesos, or Euros. You may want to bet on the euro or yen in the short run, but in the long run the dollar will still prove a safer bet. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164528-jobs-report-early-analyst-responses?source=feed#comment-700586 700586
Also, "“We are probably still underestimating job losses,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “There could be another 30,000 to 40,000” that the data isn’t picking up."

Both from a Bloomberg article found at bloomberg.com/apps...

Try to find good news in the bad and others find even worse news in the bad. The labor department model for job losses has likely led to a serious understatement of the unemployment figures for the last year and a half.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:25:28 -0400
Also, "“We are probably still underestimating job losses,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “There could be another 30,000 to 40,000” that the data isn’t picking up."

Both from a Bloomberg article found at bloomberg.com/apps...

Try to find good news in the bad and others find even worse news in the bad. The labor department model for job losses has likely led to a serious understatement of the unemployment figures for the last year and a half.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164517-workforce-disruption-weekly-claims-update?source=feed#comment-700575 700575
Also, "“We are probably still underestimating job losses,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “There could be another 30,000 to 40,000” that the data isn’t picking up."

Both from a Bloomberg article found at www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Unemployment is terribly high but is likely even much worse. Add to this that more severe measure which includes those forced to part-time work and those who have given up looking is nearly double the official unemployment rate, it is quite possible that the actual rate of formerly full time workers who are not now working full time is 20% of the workforce.

People who work spend money; people who work own homes; people who work drive our economy. This seems pretty simple to me. People who don't work don't spend money; people who don't work lose their homes; people who don't work are a drag on the economy. This also seems pretty simple to me.

Mr. Calafia is a great cheerleader but cheerleaders don't win games. We need to get the players back on the field for the economy to get back in the game.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:18:19 -0400
Also, "“We are probably still underestimating job losses,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “There could be another 30,000 to 40,000” that the data isn’t picking up."

Both from a Bloomberg article found at www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Unemployment is terribly high but is likely even much worse. Add to this that more severe measure which includes those forced to part-time work and those who have given up looking is nearly double the official unemployment rate, it is quite possible that the actual rate of formerly full time workers who are not now working full time is 20% of the workforce.

People who work spend money; people who work own homes; people who work drive our economy. This seems pretty simple to me. People who don't work don't spend money; people who don't work lose their homes; people who don't work are a drag on the economy. This also seems pretty simple to me.

Mr. Calafia is a great cheerleader but cheerleaders don't win games. We need to get the players back on the field for the economy to get back in the game.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164132-was-the-chicago-pmi-leaked?source=feed#comment-698531 698531 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:11:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162917-a-teflon-rally-running-on-volume-fumes?source=feed#comment-687418 687418 1. Flash trading exaggerates volume
2. Dark pools under-report volumes
3. Gamblers in C, AIG, FNMA, etc., going long, then short, then long, etc., driving enormous volumes in these stocks.

The first needs to be controlled because ordinary investors cannot compete and pay the profits that flash traders make. The second needs to be reported to make prices and volumes and visible to all. Many will find a rationale for the secrecy, however it truly flies in the face a free market where information is supposed to be equally available to all. Dark pools a private markets that significantly impact public markets secretly.

The third, gamblers, they are fine to the extent that they are not in the 1 or 2 category, above. Whether it's speculation or investment it is up to each investor to decide for him/herself.]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 09:57:27 -0400 1. Flash trading exaggerates volume
2. Dark pools under-report volumes
3. Gamblers in C, AIG, FNMA, etc., going long, then short, then long, etc., driving enormous volumes in these stocks.

The first needs to be controlled because ordinary investors cannot compete and pay the profits that flash traders make. The second needs to be reported to make prices and volumes and visible to all. Many will find a rationale for the secrecy, however it truly flies in the face a free market where information is supposed to be equally available to all. Dark pools a private markets that significantly impact public markets secretly.

The third, gamblers, they are fine to the extent that they are not in the 1 or 2 category, above. Whether it's speculation or investment it is up to each investor to decide for him/herself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159415-manufacturing-will-this-be-a-v-shaped-recovery-after-all?source=feed#comment-657165 657165
Cash for clunkers, and home purchase tax credit are responsible for the recent small rush of economic activity in autos and homes. Unfortunately, they are stealing from consumption of other goods in the present, and have stolen from auto and home purchases that would have happened in the future. With no wealth, no pay, and no credit, who's going to buy what in the quarters ahead? This seems like a major problem for a consumer economy.

Calafia Beach Pundit has been cheerleading a recovery for months and seems blinded by his own hoping and wishing. I hope everyone finds a job soon, I hope payrolls start increasing again, I hope houses regain their lost value (and all other assets for that matter). I hope lenders begin lending again, especially to small businesses who will create all the jobs that will start all the other things that are good for the economy. Unfortunately, my hoping won't make this all happen and neither will Calafia's.

There is a gloomy side beyond the one month spike in ISM. Keep hoping, Calafia, I hope it works, but in the meantime do something really good and donate generously to your local food bank. Millions of Americans need some help.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 16:43:20 -0400
Cash for clunkers, and home purchase tax credit are responsible for the recent small rush of economic activity in autos and homes. Unfortunately, they are stealing from consumption of other goods in the present, and have stolen from auto and home purchases that would have happened in the future. With no wealth, no pay, and no credit, who's going to buy what in the quarters ahead? This seems like a major problem for a consumer economy.

Calafia Beach Pundit has been cheerleading a recovery for months and seems blinded by his own hoping and wishing. I hope everyone finds a job soon, I hope payrolls start increasing again, I hope houses regain their lost value (and all other assets for that matter). I hope lenders begin lending again, especially to small businesses who will create all the jobs that will start all the other things that are good for the economy. Unfortunately, my hoping won't make this all happen and neither will Calafia's.

There is a gloomy side beyond the one month spike in ISM. Keep hoping, Calafia, I hope it works, but in the meantime do something really good and donate generously to your local food bank. Millions of Americans need some help.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159281-aig-overpriced-perhaps-not-as-much-as-barron-s-thinks?source=feed#comment-656126 656126
Sorry to say, this company does not even come up to the standard of a gamble. It's in the ICU and the doctors are studying what organs might be harvested when death INEVITABLY occurs.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:42:00 -0400
Sorry to say, this company does not even come up to the standard of a gamble. It's in the ICU and the doctors are studying what organs might be harvested when death INEVITABLY occurs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158796-economic-news-is-good-so-where-are-the-gains?source=feed#comment-652280 652280
Your conclusion is inane, 'In other words, the bond market is saying the stock market is wrong.' What does this mean? Markets are neither right nor wrong. They only reflect what investors believe. So do bond buyers believe that stock buyers are wrong? Well, what are they wrong about and who are these bond buyers? Your little article would have been meaningful if it had included a bit of this sort of analysis.]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 10:23:19 -0400
Your conclusion is inane, 'In other words, the bond market is saying the stock market is wrong.' What does this mean? Markets are neither right nor wrong. They only reflect what investors believe. So do bond buyers believe that stock buyers are wrong? Well, what are they wrong about and who are these bond buyers? Your little article would have been meaningful if it had included a bit of this sort of analysis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158928-is-the-market-correction-finally-here?source=feed#comment-652207 652207
What this implies for ARMS (and other technical indicators as well) is speculation at this point. Consider that in 2008, C averaged around 100 million shares a day volume. Over the last month, volume has averaged nearly 1 BILLION a day (diluted shares outstanding have increased about 15%). How much of this volume is due to millisecond speed software looking for pennies a share? Granted much activity is short selling and short covering (and, reputedly, Mr. Paulson taking a major position), however just consider the impact on ARMS, relative to history, when one issue advances on 10 times the volume ( => big decrease in its ARMS). Distortion relative to historical norms is certainly possible.

The same may also be true for other volume-based technical indicators since, what used to be a marketplace for individual investors, has been replaced by automatons vying with each other for a penny here and a penny there. Time will tell if noticeable distortions actuallly materialize, but my own guess is that future historical analyses of technical indicators will be suspect if they go back before 2009. ]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 09:51:01 -0400
What this implies for ARMS (and other technical indicators as well) is speculation at this point. Consider that in 2008, C averaged around 100 million shares a day volume. Over the last month, volume has averaged nearly 1 BILLION a day (diluted shares outstanding have increased about 15%). How much of this volume is due to millisecond speed software looking for pennies a share? Granted much activity is short selling and short covering (and, reputedly, Mr. Paulson taking a major position), however just consider the impact on ARMS, relative to history, when one issue advances on 10 times the volume ( => big decrease in its ARMS). Distortion relative to historical norms is certainly possible.

The same may also be true for other volume-based technical indicators since, what used to be a marketplace for individual investors, has been replaced by automatons vying with each other for a penny here and a penny there. Time will tell if noticeable distortions actuallly materialize, but my own guess is that future historical analyses of technical indicators will be suspect if they go back before 2009. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158925-sobering-stat-arms-index-indicates-market-is-at-peak-not-bottom?source=feed#comment-652131 652131
Are we beginning to witness the demise of TRIN and other technical indicators that many analysts have relied on?]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 08:21:05 -0400
Are we beginning to witness the demise of TRIN and other technical indicators that many analysts have relied on?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158794-end-of-recession-cues-recovery-blues?source=feed#comment-650641 650641 Fri, 28 Aug 2009 09:19:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158817-preview-from-europe-another-day-of-defiant-resilience?source=feed#comment-650610 650610 Fri, 28 Aug 2009 09:04:32 -0400