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frosty

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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    FIFO is the rule for most things. Why not check processing?
    Aug 11, 2010. 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Nonfarm Payrolls Estimate: -65k; Change in Private Payrolls Estimates: +90k [View article]
    Or it could be she wanted her teaching job back before school starts.
    Aug 6, 2010. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dilbert creator Scott Adams gets most of his stock exposure via two ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM). Adams calls actively managed mutual funds "a scam" and equates trying to beat the market with "junk science and astrology." In Adams' view, only index funds "make sense."  [View news story]
    And yet, when you look at the annual scorecard for the mutual funds, they are typically compared to the S&P 500 and, on average, over many years perform lower, net of fees. Buy SPY and you'll be a little better off in the long run.

    Incidently, Sir John Templeton was not quite accurate ("If you buy the same securities as everyone else, you'll have the same returns as everyone else".) because timing is crucial.
    Aug 4, 2010. 03:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM Index: 'New Normal' Is a No Show [View article]
    Take away government spending back to 1932 and you have less than zilch. But you can't do that because government 'spending' is an integral part of GDP. What is government spending? Many people see it as 'welfare' and 'transfer payments' to people less worthy than they. However much government spending go to R&D at universities and businesses. Where did the internet have its origins? In DARPA funded research. Where did all those satellites come from that enabled universal communications and cable tv (even ESPN). How many jobs have been created in all the businesses and industry spawned by these government INVESTMENTS. Where did all those brilliant researchers get the money from to go to college and become brilliant.

    The point is, while there is spending and some of is wasteful and some indeed goes to unworthy people, there is also a lot of government INVESTMENT. We need to be wise enough to distinguish between the two, eliminating the former and channeling to the latter.
    Aug 3, 2010. 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM Index: 'New Normal' Is a No Show [View article]
    And, if you think it's a rigged game, no investment is safe. Put your money under the matress and buy a gun to protect it.
    Aug 3, 2010. 07:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Big Decline in Equities Ahead? [View article]
    Short on rationale, this author is.
    Aug 3, 2010. 07:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Likely Market Movers to Watch This Week: August 2 - 6, 2010 [View article]
    After today's spx gap up, perhaps it has completed an inverse head and shoulders and is now on its way to 1225?
    Aug 2, 2010. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. GDP: The World Hasn't Changed Much [View article]
    A couple more charts: Supply side fans note that your heroes are at the bottom of job creation list and and rise to the top of deficit creation list. The idea that cutting taxes creates jobs and reduces deficits (due to more people paying taxes thus increasing revenues) is not born out by these charts. There are moments in time when this might work, however as a long term economic policy it does not. The curve must be U-shaped, otherwise zero taxes would be best. Where the inflection points are, or even that they exist, seem to be a total mystery to everyone.

    zfacts.com/p/318.html

    President Party Term of Office Beginning Jobs Ending Jobs Annual % Change
    Franklin Roosevelt D 1933-1945 25,700 41,903 4.37%
    Kennedy/Johnson D 1961-1969 53,683 69,438 3.25%
    Jimmy Carter D 1977-1981 80,692 91,031 3.10%
    Bill Clinton D 1993-2001 109,725 132,469 2.45%
    Harry Truman D 1945-1953 41,903 50,145 2.40%
    Nixon/Ford R 1969-1977 69,438 80,692 1.95%
    Ronald Reagan R 1981-1989 91,031 107,133 1.85%
    Dwight Eisenhower R 1953-1961 50,145 53,683 0.90%
    George H. W. Bush R 1989-1993 107,133 109,725 0.60%
    George W. Bush R 2001-2008 132,469 133,549 0.20%
    Herbert Hoover R 1929-1933 32,100 25,700 -9.00%

    Derived from BLS data.
    Jul 31, 2010. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The billionaire Wyly brothers hid $550M in trading profits by using an "elaborate sham system" of offshore entities, the SEC accuses. The Wylys are big Republican contributors, and the charges may hurt donations in an election year.  [View news story]
    Tax evasion = stealing tax money. Stealing from you and me. And then give it to the people who want to cut taxes more? No irony there.

    And secretly trading on inside information, parking the proceeds in offshore accounts and entities. The accountants and lawyers who helped construct this facade are accomplices, by definition, and should also be prosecuted.

    The more of these billionaire revelations we read about, the more ordinary investors lose faith in stock markets and the free enterprise system. The deregulation mania launched by Bush could not have served crooks better - get rid of as many rules as possible, put foxes in each hen house you can't get rid of, and turn a blind eye every time a hen gets eaten and toward anything revealed - that was the Bush vision of free enterprise. If convicted, I hope they get a cell next to Madoff. They'll have a lot to reminisce about. Perhaps they even did business together.
    Jul 31, 2010. 08:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Market Ready to Make a Massive Move [View article]
    This is a good article. Most contributors base their analysis on either political or economic propaganda. This author has an analytical method and provides a rationale for his conclusion. You may not agree with his methodology or believe technical analysis has any validity, but from my perspective, it's constructive to see a presentation of the facts as he sees them.
    Jul 28, 2010. 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far Can This Rally Go? Here's How to Play It [View article]
    Hmmm . . . DJIA, NASDAQ, RUT have all broken through, first the 50 day ma, then the 200. SPX will do so today. Why is this? Could it be earnings? Maybe investment pros (mutual and hedge funds) accumulating? Will it continue? If you believe that prices follow earnings and in momentum then it should. Too many people get locked into a negative mentality and only change when the evidence is overwhelming. Then they say, "I shoulda bought when it was low." It is low now, shorts are being squeezed - go long.
    Jul 27, 2010. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Momentum Quickly Shifts Back to Bulls, But... [View article]
    Many, many stocks are showing an inverted head-and-shoulders or double-bottom formations, yet I haven't seen any references to it. If this is truly widespread, and follows its classical expectation, the indexes will soon show a nice rallly.

    My own speculation - the major indexes appear to have broken through the 50 day ma which had been resistence. We'll see if they hold this week. If the 50 now becomes support, the 200 should offer some resistence, but not much because it is so close (actually NASDAQ is there now). Then, for awhile, the 200 will be support as the indexes chase new technical resistence/support levels.
    Jul 26, 2010. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 17 Reasons to Be Bullish About the Markets [View article]
    When to buy is most important. I've lost money on great companies and made money on not so great companies. You left out number 3 - luck!
    Jul 26, 2010. 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 17 Reasons to Be Bullish About the Markets [View article]
    It seems 17 things happened.
    Jul 26, 2010. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Economic Chart That Really Matters [View article]
    And who was responsible for recent increases? Reagan-Bush and Bush 2.
    Jul 24, 2010. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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