frosty

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

This is the third quarter in a row that the great preponderance of companies 'beat' analysts estimates. In my opinion this says more about the quality of analysts than the quality of results. Statistical expectations would be that the 'average analyst expectation' would be high half the time and low half the time but on the average, across all companies analyzed, would be close to right. Analysts consistently underestimating earnings for the vast majority of companies tells me that they just don't know much about the companies they are supposedly following. Our economy is shrinking, most companies' sales growth is negative as is their profit growth, yet to read through the list above with 80% green and 20% red (59 to 15, a few in-line) one might easily conclude that results are on a tear. I think you do a disservice to readers by making the principal highlight comparison to analysts erroneous expectations rather than making the principal highlighti comparison to companies' last quarter/last year.

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

The volume is not you and me buying 100 or a 1000 shares but computer trading against computer. Only they can command such volumes. And they might be in and out of some issues several times a day, exaggerating volume even more. The author is right when he says he's not exactly sure what to make of this.

Are we beginning to witness the demise of TRIN and other technical indicators that many analysts have relied on?

Goldman's Success: Put Down Those Pitchforks

The profits are fine. The bonuses should go to the taxpayers, however since we provided the opportunity to turn the business around.

Bank Earnings: Why I Don't Trust Analyst Reports

"Even more astonishing is that despite the obvious fact that the average analyst estimates are rarely even close to actual results, the market still reacts with shock when a company fails to match the consensus view" -- espcially true of banks but true across the board. The great rally has been fed by results "exceeding analysts expectations" without noting that many, many, many were LOSSES and without noting that many, many, many companies had sales in the range of -15% to -20%.

But banks! You can't really expect anyone to predict earnings when they can make 'em up, at least the big banks with lots of those illiquid assets that they no longer have to mark to market.

Andrew Butter - I like your bank picking strategy!

The Case for Allowing TARP Repayments

How about your aunt????? Don't you feel sorry for her????? Wow!


On Jun 10 12:39 AM mac123449 wrote:

> My aunts house is being auctioned off next thursday hasn't made a
> mortgage payment in 10 months but they still let her live there that
> whole time i'm not a big fan of the banks but i almost feel sorry
> for them in this situation there going to take a huge loss.

The Case for Allowing TARP Repayments

TARP funds should be immediately recycled to taxpayers, SS recipients and the unemployed. Hopefully, then, these funds will quickly trickle up as people pay off their mortgage arrears, credit card debt, etc., thus enabling bank executives to maintain their bonuses and lifestyle.

Monday's Closing Update: Housing, Financials Rally Broader Market

Hard to believe people are bullish because they think we need more new houses.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

I read that 2/3 of companies reporting so far have beat estimates. And yet a vast majority of these reported losses or lower earnings and significantly reduced revenue. Beating estimates in this climate seems to me to be more a critique of they analysts' estimates (they were excessively pessimistic) than the positive spin it implies, that companies are doing better than expected.