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davidbdc

davidbdc
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  • The Security I Like Best: Atlas Energy, LP [View article]
    Yep, doesn't matter how the stub is currently priced. To get it you have to buy TRGP at a low yield.

    Plus, the market is pricing in a large distribution cut at ARP - and basically the stub represents ARP IDR's.

    ARP should have already announced lower distributions. With current oil/NG/NGL pricing it will run up against its debt covenants later this year.

    The only reason they continue to pay distributions is so that they can get the sale closed and continue to claim the stub expects to distribute $1.10 (note it was $1.25 when the deal announced). I expect that shortly after the deal closes you'll magically see new guidance from ARP and therefore the stub expected distribution will decline as well.

    If you really believe in the stub - buy ARP - its currently yield is over 20%.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The Broad-Based Weakness In Retail Sales [View article]
    Its called mandatory Obamacare payments and debt. That's where most of the savings have gone.
    Jan 14, 2015. 08:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    The Saudis aren't so stupid. They aren't having an oil sale just so they can say they pumped all their oil.

    They realize that massive amounts of oil are being extracted in the US/Canada - by private firms. If they act now they may be able to curtail future investment and protect their long term market share - and long term generate the MOST REVENUE from their oil. Now, it obvious that they didn't expect this much of a price decline - but now that its happened they have to show some backbone and ther are some political advantages to allowing the situation to worsen before the help it get better.

    S.A. traditionally has been the country to cut. This time around they may be able to force Iran and other OPEC countries - along with non-OPEC countries to cut along with them. If its in 6 months that's fine with them - if its in a year that's fine with them.
    Jan 13, 2015. 04:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Turnaround At Southern Copper Cannot Be Ruled Out [View article]
    Well I'm glad it can't be ruled out!!

    Its been a disappointing few years. I'm doubtful about increasing demand but time will tell.
    Jan 8, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC Action Forces RAIT Financial Book Value To Plummet [View article]
    Brad, with all due respect to your work, this is totally misleading article.

    RAS has reported Adjusted Book Value for a good while with the anticipation of this SEC business concluding. So any owner that spends the least bit of time is aware of the situation and its been fully disclosed and accounted for.

    RAS is both a commercial mortgage lending REIT and a traditional real estate ownership REIT. The reporting is messy and complicated. But nothing changed on December 29th. The change happened a long time ago and has been accounted for ever since.

    The only cash difference I can find is the small management fee that will no longer exist. Otherwise this is old news. And this article seems a deliberate attempt to scare and mislead.

    RAS is a somewhat risky investment with a yield that represents that risk. They also have a CEO that did a good job when he was in charge previously and has done a decent job since he returned. If anything having this SEC stuff over and done should allow them to focus solely on continuing to grow the business.
    Jan 6, 2015. 05:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activist: Time for PREIT to rip the band-aid off [View news story]
    They shouldn't be selling any more malls!

    All these malls provide POSTIVE cash flow. He is only interested in a one time gain - sell his shares and move on. Long time holders just want to see continued sustainable growth and a rising dividend. Selling assets that produce positive cash flow will NOT lead to a healthier stronger company.
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Prospect Capital Is Set To Rebound In 2015 [View article]
    ASAPCO - If I'm taking in $15 million a year from a single source. And if spending $1 million a year makes the optics look much better and increase the likelihood that I continue to take in $15 million - then I'll absolutely buy that $1 million each and every year.

    The main reason I invested is that Barry is a very smart financial guy and has the business savvy to evaluate opportunities (IMO). That also means he's smart enough to keep buying back shares to appease the masses.
    Dec 31, 2014. 03:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Prospect Capital Is Set To Rebound In 2015 [View article]
    I'm not a short - I'm a long time holder. And I have to agree. Take a look at the external management fees being generated - look at the number of employees - do some back of the envelope calculations - and you have a pretty big number left over. Then look at the size of the buybacks.

    The external management structure needs to be changed. Either it gets taken internal or the fee structure is drastically changed to account for the substantial size of PSEC now compared to when the fee structure was initiated. This is our second distribution cut in the past couple of years - but the external managers are raking in even more!
    Dec 31, 2014. 03:27 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Prospect Capital Is Set To Rebound In 2015 [View article]
    As a long time holder I'm of the opinion that PSEC will rebound when the management fee structure is changed.

    Frankly, keeping fees linear is a disgrace. Shareholders are getting no benefit for the growth in the size of the company. The only people benefiting are the external managers.

    The external fees should either be drastically restructured or simply eliminated and taken internal.

    Currently the only thing management cares about is increasing AUM. Everything else is a distant second. The shift to real estate greatly increases AUM while we are still paying top dollar to management as if these are investments yielding double digits - when they clearly won't.

    No change in management fees - and in two years we'll see another dividend cut. Keep in mind that the distribution was cut about two-three years ago when they went to monthly distributions.
    Dec 31, 2014. 03:24 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: BNCCORP [View article]
    Mike,
    I don't think that my ideas are the be all end all of ideas and I also believe that there are a lot of people with great ideas.

    To the author's credit he recommended GPT when it was 3 or 4 bucks and I believe at the time I favored RAS. While RAS has done well GPT has done much better.

    IMO the author does good research and I've rarely read anything he publishes that makes me shake my head or feel I've wasted my time. So yes, on occasion I trust that others have ideas or insights that I don't and I act on them.

    Regards,
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: BNCCORP [View article]
    Thanks for the reply.

    If I picked something then I'd think the proper measurement would be from the time I picked it. As I said, not trying to be disparaging.

    Anyway, its too bad there aren't options. Since a sale is somewhat speculative I think there that my speculative $'s will go directly to E&P. But I do appreciate that you publish your articles here.

    Regards
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: BNCCORP [View article]
    Chris - thank you for the idea.

    Two things - 1. I have to take some issue with your claim of being up 120% with last year's idea. I didn't fully understand the idea but I bought a small amount. I can plainly state that I'm not up 120%. Not saying that to be disparaging but from when your article was published - I bought a day or few days after - I believe things are basically the same in terms of price.

    2. How likely is a sale this coming year? The reason I ask is that perhaps options are the better way to invest in this likely event? It seems to me that absent a sale this is really an investment in the continued growth in oil/gas in the region. Given the shellacking that many E&P firms have taken I'd rather put money into them directly if I'm betting on a turn around in oil prices. So to invest in the bank is really a bet on an event (sale) taking place.

    Thanks
    Dec 17, 2014. 02:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital suspends ATM stock issuance program as dividend is cut [View news story]
    Its a good move. I have no issues with it. The one thing missing is a revise agreement with the external management company.

    Nothing should be paid on the cash carried. And any spinoff that doesn't include shares to current shareholders should NOT be part of assets under management calculation. Fees are excessive currently and need to be reined in.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fundamental Analysis Of American Realty Capital's Likely Dividend Cut [View article]
    Brad, I agree with much of what you've written, but I don't follow how you think Cole Capital is worthless?

    If/when they issue their updated financials and there are no other accounting issues I would believe some of the firms that dumped Cole at the mention of accounting scandal will reverse. Certainly not all but some will. IMO that would leave Cole as being diminished and worth less - but that is a space with plenty of big dreamers and have to believe there is another deal to be had should ARCP still want to sell.

    I expect there will be a dividend reduction - say from 8 cents down to 6. And that would be fine and sustainable from what I've been able to dissect. Also, it seems to me that the biggest overhand is that the Chairman needs to go. The new CEO has a decent reputation and if he were elevated to chairman/CEO that would put to rest concerns he will leave and also kill off the elephant in the room.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:41 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia follows OPEC decision, keeps output unchanged [View news story]
    Russia is not a USA territory and so does not use US dollar as currency
    ----------------------

    Uh, I have many Russian friends that would beg to differ.

    They use dollars when they travel. They "save" part of their money in the form of US dollars. And you can buy just about any personal service in Russia with greenbacks.

    Inflation has accelerated the past couple of months and the average Russian is beginning to see/feel the impact - from less choices in the supermarket to higher prices in general.
    Nov 30, 2014. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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