davidbdc's Comments davidbdc's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/314687/comments Strategic Default: A Soldier Seeks the 'Right' Thing to Do http://seekingalpha.com/article/179009-strategic-default-a-soldier-seeks-the-right-thing-to-do?source=feed#comment-814829 814829
How can the individual be held accountable when the large institutions that were involved in these same transactions weren't held to account....and to top it off its our children's and grandchildren's future earnings that will pay for these bankers million dollar bonusses.

Everyone needs to think about how to secure their basic future living for themselves and their families. Buy land that can grow/raise food and put up a home that you can afford to pay off totally. The idea that we should give half of our money to the government and then a big chunk of the rest to these financial institutions is ridiculous. Banks chose to employ greedy mortgage brokers that approved loan money to anyone......what goes around comes around and now its coming around. You'll see a big media blitz about how people "need" to pay their mortgages because otherwise there are impacts to other people.........Well what the hell were the bailouts??? Impacts to my children and grandchildren for the benefit of a bunch of millionaires (many times over).

There is no illusion anymore that people are making it based on their own hard work........its based only on whether or not your a member of the "elite"...government bureaucrats, financial executives, government contractors, etc. If your an executive of a Wall Street firm that wrote off $40 billion last year?? No problem, here is your million dollar bonus, we can't afford to lose such talented people. If your a steel mill worker, well we just agreed to send $100 billion a year to China/India so that they can (wink, wink) produce cleaner emissions and we'll tax your output by enough to basically put you out of work.......

We've been sold out by our supposed leaders in Washington (Dem and Rep alike), and people need to take whatever measures they can to do the best for their families......including dumping their mortgage.]]>
Sun, 20 Dec 2009 16:23:22 -0500
How can the individual be held accountable when the large institutions that were involved in these same transactions weren't held to account....and to top it off its our children's and grandchildren's future earnings that will pay for these bankers million dollar bonusses.

Everyone needs to think about how to secure their basic future living for themselves and their families. Buy land that can grow/raise food and put up a home that you can afford to pay off totally. The idea that we should give half of our money to the government and then a big chunk of the rest to these financial institutions is ridiculous. Banks chose to employ greedy mortgage brokers that approved loan money to anyone......what goes around comes around and now its coming around. You'll see a big media blitz about how people "need" to pay their mortgages because otherwise there are impacts to other people.........Well what the hell were the bailouts??? Impacts to my children and grandchildren for the benefit of a bunch of millionaires (many times over).

There is no illusion anymore that people are making it based on their own hard work........its based only on whether or not your a member of the "elite"...government bureaucrats, financial executives, government contractors, etc. If your an executive of a Wall Street firm that wrote off $40 billion last year?? No problem, here is your million dollar bonus, we can't afford to lose such talented people. If your a steel mill worker, well we just agreed to send $100 billion a year to China/India so that they can (wink, wink) produce cleaner emissions and we'll tax your output by enough to basically put you out of work.......

We've been sold out by our supposed leaders in Washington (Dem and Rep alike), and people need to take whatever measures they can to do the best for their families......including dumping their mortgage.]]>
One way to thin out fat cat banks: replicate the Brits' windfall bonus tax. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38580?source=feed#comment-814655 814655

On Dec 20 01:14 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> Like them or not, these individuals spin gold from straw for their
> masters.
>
> If we want to tax them out of the country, we need to be aware that
> they are all able to afford to relocate to Singapore or Zurich where
> we can make zero from their efforts.]]>
Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:44:05 -0500

On Dec 20 01:14 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> Like them or not, these individuals spin gold from straw for their
> masters.
>
> If we want to tax them out of the country, we need to be aware that
> they are all able to afford to relocate to Singapore or Zurich where
> we can make zero from their efforts.]]>
It's All About Deleveraging http://seekingalpha.com/article/179004-it-s-all-about-deleveraging?source=feed#comment-814649 814649
I don't think the market is particularly overvalued, nor is it undervalued. On a stock by stock basis you can find many in each category......pick those that are undervalued and you'll win....pick the former and you'll lose money.

And for the most part CRE is going to do just fine....with nothing being built last year and this coming year rents should do ok and those loans will get extended by the banks. Why wait for the next column when you can buy PEI on Monday for $8. Thats my pick for 2010 and beyond....we'll see what the author has to offer.]]>
Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:41:18 -0500
I don't think the market is particularly overvalued, nor is it undervalued. On a stock by stock basis you can find many in each category......pick those that are undervalued and you'll win....pick the former and you'll lose money.

And for the most part CRE is going to do just fine....with nothing being built last year and this coming year rents should do ok and those loans will get extended by the banks. Why wait for the next column when you can buy PEI on Monday for $8. Thats my pick for 2010 and beyond....we'll see what the author has to offer.]]>
According to John Mauldin, we're still in a long-term secular bear. "I want to see valuations come way down before I suggest that the index-investing waters are once again safe. That day will come. Just not for a while." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38578?source=feed#comment-814639 814639
Like it or not that is the reality.......which is why high unemployment will stick with us for a good while.]]>
Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:28:45 -0500
Like it or not that is the reality.......which is why high unemployment will stick with us for a good while.]]>
One way to thin out fat cat banks: replicate the Brits' windfall bonus tax. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38580?source=feed#comment-814637 814637
You can be against government interference (which I am also), but lets not play pretend.....there has already been massive government interference....and frankly my kids and grandkids owe just as much as the banker's kids and grandkids......the only difference is that their mother/father is going to take home a million or two of government money as their bonus this year.

And frankly I'm against that. I would support massive taxes this year on banker's bonusses - to the tune of 90%. And next year I'd support something around 67%.

There has to be some common sense applied to the financial industry. Put all the gamblers on one side of the room (hedge funds, stock pickers, etc) and put the main street commercial folks on the other side. Hedge funds can do whatever they'd like......including failing....to zero (and that includes bond holders also). Commercial banks get the government guarantees and pay themselves on par with utility companies.

So much of this supposed talent is merely guys who make a 50/50 bet on heads and it comes up heads.....and we hear "we'll lose all our talent if there are pay restrictions".....to that I say good. Government guarantees shouldn't be extended to those that want to play at the casino.

And finally I'll just say my preference is to see good executives acting in the best interests of their shareholders instead of themselves and their buddies......think it was in the best interests of shareholders of C and WF that $40 Billion of equity was issued between the two to get out of TARP......what was the rush???? Oh yeah, need to pay ourselves (management) more money......]]>
Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:25:24 -0500
You can be against government interference (which I am also), but lets not play pretend.....there has already been massive government interference....and frankly my kids and grandkids owe just as much as the banker's kids and grandkids......the only difference is that their mother/father is going to take home a million or two of government money as their bonus this year.

And frankly I'm against that. I would support massive taxes this year on banker's bonusses - to the tune of 90%. And next year I'd support something around 67%.

There has to be some common sense applied to the financial industry. Put all the gamblers on one side of the room (hedge funds, stock pickers, etc) and put the main street commercial folks on the other side. Hedge funds can do whatever they'd like......including failing....to zero (and that includes bond holders also). Commercial banks get the government guarantees and pay themselves on par with utility companies.

So much of this supposed talent is merely guys who make a 50/50 bet on heads and it comes up heads.....and we hear "we'll lose all our talent if there are pay restrictions".....to that I say good. Government guarantees shouldn't be extended to those that want to play at the casino.

And finally I'll just say my preference is to see good executives acting in the best interests of their shareholders instead of themselves and their buddies......think it was in the best interests of shareholders of C and WF that $40 Billion of equity was issued between the two to get out of TARP......what was the rush???? Oh yeah, need to pay ourselves (management) more money......]]>
Not a single bear in Barron's 2010 survey. (via Roger Nusbaum, whose 2010 S&P target is 1,000) http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38573?source=feed#comment-813796 813796
Stick to the stocks you know well and base valuation on earnings and cash flow.........and spend all the time you used to spend watching TV going to the gym.....you'll feel much better and end up much wealthier!!]]>
Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:40:04 -0500
Stick to the stocks you know well and base valuation on earnings and cash flow.........and spend all the time you used to spend watching TV going to the gym.....you'll feel much better and end up much wealthier!!]]>
Another gem from Time's Bernanke features: The man who has done his part to keep mortgage rates low refinanced his own house in the past few months, to around 5% fixed: "We had to do it because we had an adjustable-rate mortgage and it exploded." And if loans are blowing up on Bernanke while the Fed is actively intervening in the MBS market ... http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38566?source=feed#comment-813386 813386
It is a nice human interest story and shows that some common sense regulations are needed to protect those that might not have the intelligence of a Fed leader.......imagine what chance 74 year old widows had when faced with smooth talking salepeople telling her that she can refinance to lower payment to help out with her grandchildren's tuition bills..........]]>
Sat, 19 Dec 2009 09:40:25 -0500
It is a nice human interest story and shows that some common sense regulations are needed to protect those that might not have the intelligence of a Fed leader.......imagine what chance 74 year old widows had when faced with smooth talking salepeople telling her that she can refinance to lower payment to help out with her grandchildren's tuition bills..........]]>
Why stop at reinstating Glass-Steagall? To really get at the problem, some are saying regulation has to go further - with proposals that would break the likes of Goldman Sachs into multiple pieces. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38569?source=feed#comment-813348 813348
Lets just stick with the easy things like fixing social security and medicare and the health system.]]>
Sat, 19 Dec 2009 09:35:38 -0500
Lets just stick with the easy things like fixing social security and medicare and the health system.]]>
More signs of housing confidence, as lenders are easing down-payment standards for some applicants, who can borrow 95% of a home's value instead of 90%. Changes are happening on a market-by-market basis, but indicate some companies think the worst is over for price declines. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38567?source=feed#comment-813341 813341
What we need is less reliance on credit reports and more reliance on bank to customer relationships. It amazes me that loans can be granted over the internet.....all that means is that if you know how to play the credit rating system then you can get a big mortgage.

And lets stop with the non-recourse nonsense in some of these states.....We need something that is partially non-recourse....you lose your job, death of a breadwinner, or serious medical problem and then you can make a penalty payment and leave if you choose to do that (I'm not saying its right)....otherwise its your debt same as every other debt you have.

What would that do? It might actually accomplish a few socially good things. 1. People would buy smaller homes since they have to have 10% cash down. That would lead to less energy consumption. 2. People would be less likely to own homes in the first place. Less urban sprawl and less traffic congestion/emissions. 3. People would be much more likely to view housing as well just housing.....not an investment vehicle.]]>
Sat, 19 Dec 2009 09:34:20 -0500
What we need is less reliance on credit reports and more reliance on bank to customer relationships. It amazes me that loans can be granted over the internet.....all that means is that if you know how to play the credit rating system then you can get a big mortgage.

And lets stop with the non-recourse nonsense in some of these states.....We need something that is partially non-recourse....you lose your job, death of a breadwinner, or serious medical problem and then you can make a penalty payment and leave if you choose to do that (I'm not saying its right)....otherwise its your debt same as every other debt you have.

What would that do? It might actually accomplish a few socially good things. 1. People would buy smaller homes since they have to have 10% cash down. That would lead to less energy consumption. 2. People would be less likely to own homes in the first place. Less urban sprawl and less traffic congestion/emissions. 3. People would be much more likely to view housing as well just housing.....not an investment vehicle.]]>
A look (through three charts) past the finger-pointing to figure out what's driving the deficit. Hint: If you declare 70% of the budget off limits, there's little you can do. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38496?source=feed#comment-812915 812915 ----------------------...

so we've gone from "I regret I have but one life...." to I can't possibly do whats right because I might lose my House/Senate seat????

and perhaps those 75 million baby boomers might actually care about their children and grandchildren and their country's future???

Whats more important? the financial stability of our country for our children or a dozen house seats for a political party.........if this is what leadership has become in our country then God help us.]]>
Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:13:40 -0500 ----------------------...

so we've gone from "I regret I have but one life...." to I can't possibly do whats right because I might lose my House/Senate seat????

and perhaps those 75 million baby boomers might actually care about their children and grandchildren and their country's future???

Whats more important? the financial stability of our country for our children or a dozen house seats for a political party.........if this is what leadership has become in our country then God help us.]]>
General Growth Properties: Two Sides to the Story http://seekingalpha.com/article/178941-general-growth-properties-two-sides-to-the-story?source=feed#comment-812909 812909
To assume that GGP will get the same cap rates as a company not in BK is overly optimistic. Additionally, I think the Prime acquisition by Simon means that they won't try to take all of GGP.....but rather perhaps bid on a package of the crown jewels........and even there I would expect to see something close to 8. There is still a long way to go to emerge from BK and the "easy" creditors have already reached agreeements...the next round will be the "proof in the pudding".

However the beauty of this is that time will tell and for your sake hope you are correct......because if you are it means that retail has really bounced back and the economy is humming along.]]>
Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:02:30 -0500
To assume that GGP will get the same cap rates as a company not in BK is overly optimistic. Additionally, I think the Prime acquisition by Simon means that they won't try to take all of GGP.....but rather perhaps bid on a package of the crown jewels........and even there I would expect to see something close to 8. There is still a long way to go to emerge from BK and the "easy" creditors have already reached agreeements...the next round will be the "proof in the pudding".

However the beauty of this is that time will tell and for your sake hope you are correct......because if you are it means that retail has really bounced back and the economy is humming along.]]>
Sources say Citigroup (C) is irate with the Treasury for letting Wells Fargo (WFC) sell shares to back its TARP exit at the same time Citi planned to sell $17B in stock to pay for its own bailout exit, which it believes crimped demand for the sale. Meanwhile, Fed regulators are also reportedly unhappy with Treasury for pushing them to let banks leave TARP too quickly. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38505?source=feed#comment-812014 812014
Nothing like Monday morning quarterbacking and fingerpointing about "its not me to blame".........shows just what is wrong with our regulatory system.]]>
Fri, 18 Dec 2009 09:08:54 -0500
Nothing like Monday morning quarterbacking and fingerpointing about "its not me to blame".........shows just what is wrong with our regulatory system.]]>
A look (through three charts) past the finger-pointing to figure out what's driving the deficit. Hint: If you declare 70% of the budget off limits, there's little you can do. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38496?source=feed#comment-811753 811753
Social security is the easiest to solve and we should....its a math problem that any 7th grader could come up with a solution to. Raise the minimum age, cut back modestly benefits, and means test.

The military is the next easiest. We have to admit that all our expenditures hasn't really gotten us what we desired post 9/11. And we need to have the hard conversation with our NATO allies about the free ride they have had over the past 30+ years in terms of their expenditures being very low while we make up the difference. Bring home some troops from all over the world, cut back some weapons programs, keep the research, and you can probably take out 150 Billion a year while still having a robust force.

Health care requires some straight talk. Too much is spent on dieing. Too much is spent on things we ourselves cause. Fraud is out of control. Lawyers suck too much money from the system. Insurance only benefits the insurance companies and their employees. Unfortunately health care isn't free, and not everyone is going to have the best care. That said we need a program to provide basic medical care and make people aware they are responsible for keeping their health. Get a broken arm, it gets fixed.....get bone cancer for some reason, it gets treated......but you get diabetes because you sit on your ass and are obese then you will have to find the money to pay for treatments....period..... hard fact of life.]]>
Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:49:13 -0500
Social security is the easiest to solve and we should....its a math problem that any 7th grader could come up with a solution to. Raise the minimum age, cut back modestly benefits, and means test.

The military is the next easiest. We have to admit that all our expenditures hasn't really gotten us what we desired post 9/11. And we need to have the hard conversation with our NATO allies about the free ride they have had over the past 30+ years in terms of their expenditures being very low while we make up the difference. Bring home some troops from all over the world, cut back some weapons programs, keep the research, and you can probably take out 150 Billion a year while still having a robust force.

Health care requires some straight talk. Too much is spent on dieing. Too much is spent on things we ourselves cause. Fraud is out of control. Lawyers suck too much money from the system. Insurance only benefits the insurance companies and their employees. Unfortunately health care isn't free, and not everyone is going to have the best care. That said we need a program to provide basic medical care and make people aware they are responsible for keeping their health. Get a broken arm, it gets fixed.....get bone cancer for some reason, it gets treated......but you get diabetes because you sit on your ass and are obese then you will have to find the money to pay for treatments....period..... hard fact of life.]]>
Southern Co. (SO -1.1%), America's top power producer, is reportedly set to win approval for a loan guarantee to build a nuclear plant. The company - one of four on a short list for jump-start financing from the government - wants to build two 1,150-megawatt reactors near Augusta, Ga., though no new plants have been licensed in the U.S. since the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38474?source=feed#comment-811088 811088 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:27:00 -0500 FedEx (FDX): FQ2 EPS of $1.10 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $8.6B (-9.9%) vs. $8.46B. Sees FQ3 EPS of $0.50-0.70 vs. $0.84. Shares -3.1% premarket. (PR) http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38422?source=feed#comment-810032 810032
What I like is that they beat on revenue, which indicates that there is more economic activity going on.]]>
Thu, 17 Dec 2009 08:13:35 -0500
What I like is that they beat on revenue, which indicates that there is more economic activity going on.]]>
Analysts say Citi's (C) disappointing showing casts doubt on the wisdom of Citi's rush to exit TARP. Dick Bove called it "a terrible deal for shareholders," and said it proves the interests of Citi's management team (removing pay restrictions) are not aligned with those of shareholders. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38413?source=feed#comment-809838 809838
Lets see....we could have our top 25 executives earn "only" a million or so dollars for the next two years while we earn enough money to pay back the government and keep our capital ratios strong................or we could issue several billion shares of stock at $3, guaranteeing that it will probably never see double digits again, BUT we can pay ourselves billions in bonusses!!!!! Yeah that the ticket....start the printing presses...we need those shares issued tomorrow!!! Honey, start making those vacation plans for next year!!! and look for another house while your at it!!!

Pathetic leadership.]]>
Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:40:55 -0500
Lets see....we could have our top 25 executives earn "only" a million or so dollars for the next two years while we earn enough money to pay back the government and keep our capital ratios strong................or we could issue several billion shares of stock at $3, guaranteeing that it will probably never see double digits again, BUT we can pay ourselves billions in bonusses!!!!! Yeah that the ticket....start the printing presses...we need those shares issued tomorrow!!! Honey, start making those vacation plans for next year!!! and look for another house while your at it!!!

Pathetic leadership.]]>
Volcker's Wake Up Call: Spread the Word http://seekingalpha.com/article/178257-volcker-s-wake-up-call-spread-the-word?source=feed#comment-809781 809781
He's just saying what we all know....men passing around pieces of paper add nothing to this country and in fact they are stealing from the "real" economy.

And he's right that despite all the best minds going to Wall Street, there has been nothing of any social benefit produced. Securitization??? please, that just is more paper being produced and cut up and sold off....to create a commission for someone.

Volker might win come November 2010 when the American people finally rise up and throw out all congressional incumbents.....you can only steal from a man for so long before he will fight back....and you have to believe that America has enough fighting spirit left to start hitting back soon.]]>
Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:32:13 -0500
He's just saying what we all know....men passing around pieces of paper add nothing to this country and in fact they are stealing from the "real" economy.

And he's right that despite all the best minds going to Wall Street, there has been nothing of any social benefit produced. Securitization??? please, that just is more paper being produced and cut up and sold off....to create a commission for someone.

Volker might win come November 2010 when the American people finally rise up and throw out all congressional incumbents.....you can only steal from a man for so long before he will fight back....and you have to believe that America has enough fighting spirit left to start hitting back soon.]]>
General Growth Properties: Rebutting the Bears http://seekingalpha.com/article/178502-general-growth-properties-rebutting-the-bears?source=feed#comment-809773 809773
Minus senior debt service* $1.1 billion

Minus cap ex $0.3 billion

Equals cash flow of $1.0 billion
----------------------...
This is very very optimistic IMO.....I think you have to expect a further drop in NOI in the short term, and don't expect the second round of negotiations to be as advantageous as the first - which means the senior debt service might further erode NOI through the forced sale of assets. At the very least I'd expect the second round to be 20% worse to GGP than the first (you do the easy stuff first in BK to try to set precendent). That would mean another $200 million or so....and cap ex needs to increase to attract new retailers into empty space. I think that optimistically over the next few years GGP has cash flow of $200-$500 million. Then you can apply whatever multiple you'd like on that. And I believe thats the optimistic scenario - I believe that the remaining creditors will dig in and force either the whole thing to be sold or for a large chunk of GGP to be sold.

And I've never seen David Simon overpay for assets out of the kindness of his heart..........I think the money has been made in GGP. For those that bought it was a good ride and congrats, but remember a bird in the hand.........]]>
Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:11:45 -0500
Minus senior debt service* $1.1 billion

Minus cap ex $0.3 billion

Equals cash flow of $1.0 billion
----------------------...
This is very very optimistic IMO.....I think you have to expect a further drop in NOI in the short term, and don't expect the second round of negotiations to be as advantageous as the first - which means the senior debt service might further erode NOI through the forced sale of assets. At the very least I'd expect the second round to be 20% worse to GGP than the first (you do the easy stuff first in BK to try to set precendent). That would mean another $200 million or so....and cap ex needs to increase to attract new retailers into empty space. I think that optimistically over the next few years GGP has cash flow of $200-$500 million. Then you can apply whatever multiple you'd like on that. And I believe thats the optimistic scenario - I believe that the remaining creditors will dig in and force either the whole thing to be sold or for a large chunk of GGP to be sold.

And I've never seen David Simon overpay for assets out of the kindness of his heart..........I think the money has been made in GGP. For those that bought it was a good ride and congrats, but remember a bird in the hand.........]]>
General Growth Properties Short Thesis Lacks Accuracy http://seekingalpha.com/article/178381-general-growth-properties-short-thesis-lacks-accuracy?source=feed#comment-809762 809762
They have made good progress, but now I think the tough part comes and we might see things get fairly ugly with the remaining properties.

Ultimately though a REIT is valued on its sustained dividend payouts. I haven't seen any type of projection on what the dividend might look like in say 2011 or 2012 and beyond.....

The mall will survive, but I think that PEI is a much better play on refinancing than GGP at these levels. The reason I say that is that PEI has over $2 FFO and you can project refinancing to cost it 10%-20% of that FFO, leaving the potential for dividends around $1 - $1.25.....a 12-15% payout today with potential for growth. I wonder if GGP will be paying dividends before say 2013?

To those that bought sub-$1 congratulations as you have profited immensely. Personally, had I bought at $.70 or .80 I'd be taking some profits here and letting the rest ride. BK agreements are tricky things and nothing is "final" until the very end...... Good luck]]>
Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:56:17 -0500
They have made good progress, but now I think the tough part comes and we might see things get fairly ugly with the remaining properties.

Ultimately though a REIT is valued on its sustained dividend payouts. I haven't seen any type of projection on what the dividend might look like in say 2011 or 2012 and beyond.....

The mall will survive, but I think that PEI is a much better play on refinancing than GGP at these levels. The reason I say that is that PEI has over $2 FFO and you can project refinancing to cost it 10%-20% of that FFO, leaving the potential for dividends around $1 - $1.25.....a 12-15% payout today with potential for growth. I wonder if GGP will be paying dividends before say 2013?

To those that bought sub-$1 congratulations as you have profited immensely. Personally, had I bought at $.70 or .80 I'd be taking some profits here and letting the rest ride. BK agreements are tricky things and nothing is "final" until the very end...... Good luck]]>
Hovde's Short Case for General Growth Properties http://seekingalpha.com/article/178372-hovde-s-short-case-for-general-growth-properties?source=feed#comment-809759 809759
I don't see how GGP can get out of BK intact. There has to be some sort of large scale sale of assets as I can't see all creditors agreeing to simply extend their debts......some will (rightly) demand assets be sold and their claims paid. Others will probably agree to exchange their debt for equity, but on their terms.......

I believe there is some value to existing shareholder in GGP, they have many good assets that can be sold. But I find it hard to believe that the shares are worth $10+ per share. One would have to believe that they will begin paying out dividends to the tune of $1/year to justify that type of valuation.

I do agree with Ackerman that mall REITs are going to do better than people think. Retail is far from dead, shopping is a social activity for most - tell me when women are going to stop liking to go to the mall and looking for clothes??? Not in this lifetime. When you consider that there won't be any new malls built for probably at least the next two years that leaves current owners with some upside (not huge) as the economy improves. New retailers will emerge to replace some of those in the presentation above and they will need retail space. And I don't buy the big box arguement that stand alones hurt malls - 70% of them are located next to a mall and they help each other IMO.

I actually think that MAC and PEI will benefit if a large chunk of GGP assets are sold to SPG. Retailers will be very aware that they need some counterbalance to SPG in the marketplace and will be more likely to keep stores in PEI and MAC malls open to avoid all their eggs being in SPG's basket. PEI is the long term "home run" in the mall REIT sector.]]>
Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:40:25 -0500
I don't see how GGP can get out of BK intact. There has to be some sort of large scale sale of assets as I can't see all creditors agreeing to simply extend their debts......some will (rightly) demand assets be sold and their claims paid. Others will probably agree to exchange their debt for equity, but on their terms.......

I believe there is some value to existing shareholder in GGP, they have many good assets that can be sold. But I find it hard to believe that the shares are worth $10+ per share. One would have to believe that they will begin paying out dividends to the tune of $1/year to justify that type of valuation.

I do agree with Ackerman that mall REITs are going to do better than people think. Retail is far from dead, shopping is a social activity for most - tell me when women are going to stop liking to go to the mall and looking for clothes??? Not in this lifetime. When you consider that there won't be any new malls built for probably at least the next two years that leaves current owners with some upside (not huge) as the economy improves. New retailers will emerge to replace some of those in the presentation above and they will need retail space. And I don't buy the big box arguement that stand alones hurt malls - 70% of them are located next to a mall and they help each other IMO.

I actually think that MAC and PEI will benefit if a large chunk of GGP assets are sold to SPG. Retailers will be very aware that they need some counterbalance to SPG in the marketplace and will be more likely to keep stores in PEI and MAC malls open to avoid all their eggs being in SPG's basket. PEI is the long term "home run" in the mall REIT sector.]]>
Former Fed chief Paul Volcker has taken to wandering the world warning that reforms aren't happening with the "necessary vigor," but there's little evidence that he's having any impact. A table shows the progress - or lack thereof - of global finance overhauls. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38406?source=feed#comment-809197 809197
He is the only man that could truly fix this mess - he's got backbone and the intelligence to get it done.......but Obama has gone with Summers, Geithner, and Shapiro. Its like picking the three stooges over John Wayne.]]>
Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:11:51 -0500
He is the only man that could truly fix this mess - he's got backbone and the intelligence to get it done.......but Obama has gone with Summers, Geithner, and Shapiro. Its like picking the three stooges over John Wayne.]]>
Patricia Cohen says her ex-husband, SAC Capital Advisors' Steven Cohen, hid millions from her in her divorce. A common enough claim in divorce proceedings, except she says some of the millions came from 1980s insider trading, which is likely to put another uncomfortable spotlight on SAC's dealings. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38407?source=feed#comment-809194 809194
Yep, sounds like the norm for much of Wall Street........

And the lawsuit? Just run of the mill gold-digging........

Have to think that the slimy lawyers, gold-digging ex-wife and 5th admendment taking stock pumper probably deserve each other's company over the next few years!!]]>
Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:08:15 -0500
Yep, sounds like the norm for much of Wall Street........

And the lawsuit? Just run of the mill gold-digging........

Have to think that the slimy lawyers, gold-digging ex-wife and 5th admendment taking stock pumper probably deserve each other's company over the next few years!!]]>
U.S. Forfeiting Billions in Future Taxes So Citi Can Exit TARP http://seekingalpha.com/article/178401-u-s-forfeiting-billions-in-future-taxes-so-citi-can-exit-tarp?source=feed#comment-808276 808276
Heck the payouts will probably be so big that they will need to reduce lending to small businesses even more!!]]>
Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:19:05 -0500
Heck the payouts will probably be so big that they will need to reduce lending to small businesses even more!!]]>
The FDIC votes to raise its 2010 operating budget to $4B, $2.5B of which is to be used for managing bank shutdowns - nearly double the $1.3B for that purpose this year. The agency will use funds to add more than 1,600 staffers to help unwind failed banks. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38294?source=feed#comment-806750 806750
If they handled the 100+ failures so far this year including Indy why exactly do they need to double their budget and add 1600 people to the dole???

How about they suck it up like everyone else and do their job. This is exactly why government run health care will be a disaster....the folks running it will keep giving benefits to themselves and everyone else pays for it.]]>
Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:01:47 -0500
If they handled the 100+ failures so far this year including Indy why exactly do they need to double their budget and add 1600 people to the dole???

How about they suck it up like everyone else and do their job. This is exactly why government run health care will be a disaster....the folks running it will keep giving benefits to themselves and everyone else pays for it.]]>
Big banks and other lenders are facing opposition on the rates they charge from a newly unifying front: various faith-based organizations, coming together under the idea "10% is enough" to call for the return of anti-usury laws, saying that the system is off-kilter if banks profit by destroying borrowers. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38147?source=feed#comment-802617 802617
We got into this crisis because those that made stupid sub-prime loans and the like weren't allowed to FAIL!! Their management should have been swept out and their assets sold to competant people. We have thousands of banks who would gladly expand their responsible operations to take the place of those that were irresponsible.

We've created a class of government supported elites now.......too big to fail is code for "I'm one of the chosen ones"......and am entitled to my millions every year at the cost of those peons.]]>
Sat, 12 Dec 2009 02:29:28 -0500
We got into this crisis because those that made stupid sub-prime loans and the like weren't allowed to FAIL!! Their management should have been swept out and their assets sold to competant people. We have thousands of banks who would gladly expand their responsible operations to take the place of those that were irresponsible.

We've created a class of government supported elites now.......too big to fail is code for "I'm one of the chosen ones"......and am entitled to my millions every year at the cost of those peons.]]>
Sources say U.S. pay czar Kenneth Feinberg will exempt some AIG (AIG) executives from a $500,000 salary cap after at least five employees threatened to quit. Feinberg said in October (.pdf) base salaries wouldn't exceed $500K except in cases where there was "good cause" to pay more. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37844?source=feed#comment-795890 795890
Perhaps I should threaten to quit being a taxpayer unless my taxes are reduced by 50%.

What a load of BS]]>
Tue, 08 Dec 2009 08:05:21 -0500
Perhaps I should threaten to quit being a taxpayer unless my taxes are reduced by 50%.

What a load of BS]]>
California cut pay by 18% today for lawmakers and elected officials for the first time since establishing a full-time legislature more than 40 years ago. The cuts reach from top to bottom, though Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger hasn't taken a salary since taking office. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37827?source=feed#comment-795196 795196 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:17:32 -0500 Dubai ring-fences Dubai World's prized assets, further eroding investor sentiment ahead of talks between the struggling conglomerate and key creditors. Dubai's finance chief said Monday the state-controlled firm might sell assets to finance its commitments, but not ones tied to the emirate's government, sending Dubai shares down 6% to a 20-week low. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37760?source=feed#comment-793876 793876
Shows you why folks still buy US Treasury bonds.]]>
Mon, 07 Dec 2009 08:31:32 -0500
Shows you why folks still buy US Treasury bonds.]]>
Five top AIG (AIG) executives are reportedly ready to quit over worries about the government clipping their pay packages. The uprising was apparently initiated by AIG general counsel, Anastasia Kelly; she's joined by the heads of one of AIG's international life-insurance businesses, its financial-services division, its international property-casualty insurance businesses, and its U.S. property-casualty business. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37755?source=feed#comment-793866 793866
And every year they can get their bonus......and have an IRS agent right next to them to say "Thanks".]]>
Mon, 07 Dec 2009 08:23:19 -0500
And every year they can get their bonus......and have an IRS agent right next to them to say "Thanks".]]>
From The $700B Man, which chronicles how managing TARP almost destroyed Neel Kashkari's life: "$700B was a number out of the air," Kashkari recalls. "It was a political calculus. I said, 'We don't know how much is enough. We need as much as we can get. What about $1T?' 'No way,' Hank shook his head. I said, 'Okay, what about $700B?' We didn't know if it would work. We had to project confidence, hold up the world. We couldn't admit how scared we were, or how uncertain." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37742?source=feed#comment-793389 793389
What it also shows for folks is how little performance actually means in terms of advancement in big organizations. This isn't a knock on him personally, but do you think he was the best person for the job? Or that he had the type of performance that warranted getting this job ahead of others? Shareholders would be shocked if they knew how the leaders in their business are often selected.]]>
Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:31:36 -0500
What it also shows for folks is how little performance actually means in terms of advancement in big organizations. This isn't a knock on him personally, but do you think he was the best person for the job? Or that he had the type of performance that warranted getting this job ahead of others? Shareholders would be shocked if they knew how the leaders in their business are often selected.]]>