zorro6204

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

"I don't know the company . . . "

AIV is NOT losing money, that's GAAP crap. Cash flow is very much positive, they've weathered the great recession as well as anyone in that industry, with a goal of selling off non-core assets to eliminate all recourse debt. The stock price has gone up almost 300% from March. Apparently the market doesn't think it's going under!

What's Driving Natural Gas?

EVEP's John Walker said in a conference yesterday that he expected gas to drop to "pennies" in the next few weeks.

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

What nonsense! Obviously this was based on some kind of stupid ratio analysis, because if you know anything at all about AIV's debt, then you would realize they are probably the LEAST likely company to go bankrupt, at least of those corporations that have any debt at all. In fact, given that virtually all of their debt is nonrecourse tied to projects, it's difficult to see how it's even possible!

Market Lessons: Buy Low, SELL High

Oh for heaven's sake, just because a chart happens to somewhat match a 1930's chart doesn't mean the same thing is going to happen in the next frame. To act based on that alone would be madness.

Personally I think the chances of a double dip are pretty high, based on the levels of personal debt and upcoming problems with bank assets, but at least I have reasons for this thesis, not moldy lines on paper. Absurd.

Not Even Close to the Worst Since the Great Depression

Aw come on, the situation at the end of WWII had nothing to do with economic activity in the same sense as other recessions. as you noted yourself. The great depression had begun to double dip in 1938 until the government started a massive defense build up, which by the end of 1945 virtually carpeted the pacific with submarines, destroyers, cruisers and aircraft carriers, never mind the thousands of airplanes, tanks and other gear deployed over both oceans. That production didn't just stall in 1945, it stopped entirely. With the exception of a few carriers, the navy lived off the WWII production into the 1970's.

Meanwhile, millions of men came home to find industry at a standstill, even domestic production like railroad locomotives virtually ceased for several years. It took years for industry to re-gear for new realities and for non-military goods. In many ways the postwar recession was the last act of the great depression, and it hardly makes the current situation less stark by comparison.

Constellation Energy: A Good Trade for a Natural Gas Rebound

The numbers are a bit confusing in their presentation of "adjusted" EBITDA. That does not equate to funds flow, because they backed out interest. If you subtract interest you get $34M - $6M for six months, or about $56M on an annual basis before capex. That is of course before whatever additions will be made from recent drilling efforts, and would be adjusted by unhedged production prices.

It's not clear what management means when they say "distributions will remain suspended until after such time that debt levels are reduced and market conditions again warrant resumption of capital spending at maintenance levels", but I think it's a safe bet their will be no distributions until the October, 2010 debt maturity is handled.

What might distributions going forward be? Difficult to say, but management initially reduced dividends after all the 2008 turmoil to match the 2009 guidance, and those numbers are pretty much on target. The distribution rate was 52 cents on an annual basis.

Constellation Energy: A Good Trade for a Natural Gas Rebound

We were just discussing CEP on the Yahoo boards, came to more or less similar conclusions, though I'm not as optimistic as this article or my friend (but we're not done with the discussion, and he may prove me wrong).

In any case, I advise you to perform this same analysis on EROC and XTEX, also natural gas related, also in the $3's, also suspended, and also screaming bargains.

Misguided Thinking on Natural Gas

Sorry, but your logic has holes as well. First, SOME MLP's are involved in transportation only. Many are producers, including LINE, VNR, LGCY, ENP and PSE. And even more combine transport with processing, including NGLS, EVEP, MWE, CPNO and many, many others. The "exceptions" are quite numerous!

And many MLP's do not conduct a fee-only business for gas transportation, they are paid in liquids removed from the gas. While NGL's do not necessarily track the price of gas, to say that MLP's are insensitive to price movements is incorrect.

Finally, even if a given MLP derives all of its income from fees for movement of gas only, their income is still very much affected by the price of gas, because price affects drilling, and drilling is what provides gas to move.

As to why the price of MLP's often seems unrelated to commodity prices, just look at PSE or LINE; hedging. If you average commodity prices over four years, try the chart again, though there is bound to be a discontinuity for the "great recession" crash.

Natural Gas Could Cure What Ails America

Solve one problem, cause another. If natural gas use is systematically ramped up, imports of LNG from the middle east could go from a trickle to a flood, burying our domestic industry. The only cost of bringing in LNG from Arabia is transportation, in the $2+ range. Nobody can drill shale for that. Our trade balance gets better with less oil imports and gets smashed by LNG. How do you solve that? Outlaw imports? Is that even feasible?

Natural Gas: Was Thursday Capitulation Day?

This guy doesn't think that was capitulation:

"I continue to believe that sometime after Labor Day, that we will see gas prices at $2 or below."

- John Walker, CEO, EV Energy Partners LP

Natural Gas: Could This Be the First Bullish Chart?

In EVEP's conference call they said the storage situation is so bad they're seeing elevated pressures on the lines they're trying to move gas through. Management predicted sub $2 gas by labor day! Those guys are on the front line.

Natural Gas: Grim Outlook Through Late 2010

"However, very few (if any) companies have hedges in place past January 2010 . . . "

Say what? Try CPNO, EVEP, LINE, MWE, NGLS and VNR for starters, all of whom are hedged beyond 2010, much less January!

Linn Energy: High Dividend, Low Valuation

I got news for you, they're hardly alone. The same comments apply to CPNO, ENP, EVEP, LCGY, MWE, NGLS, PSE, VNR and WPZ, all yielding in the 10-15% range, and all financially strong, especially with recent equity offerings.

FASB Considering Requiring All Financial Assets Be Marked at Fair Values

The mark to market system is insanity in the first place, it should have been left at impairment and the judgment of the auditors. That would have prevented automatic adjustments to prices set in nonexistent or dysfunctional markets.

Now they've got themselves into such a total mess that they have to allow writing down debts as well! How can that ever be justified? There's no circumstance in which a debt can be satisfied other than at par unless the company is able to buy there own debt in the market, and that's a limited event, typically. Even nonrecourse debts should stay at par, with the recorded value of the corresponding asset set at a floor based on the debt, the price it would be "sold" for if the company walked away from it.

GAAP managed to destroy the usefulness of income statements to the point where they are routinely ignored in many industries. Now it's screwing up balance sheets so bad there's no telling what the damn things mean.

GM Shares Just Won't Quit

So far as I am able to understand, I believe the price of old GM is related to the July options, and once those are done, the stock should fall to near nothing (plus a dime or two for random motion). I don't believe the stock price is "real".