nostatistics's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/314908/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/113621-why-i-m-selling-apple-and-google-today-and-holding-amazon?source=feed#comment-373920 373920 Mon, 02 Feb 2009 19:22:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115264-amazon-could-benefit-from-circuit-city-s-demise?source=feed#comment-359278 359278 The reality is that Amazon is vastly overvalued at its current price. Why are analysts theorizing and issuing upgrades based on speculation and potential while ignoring demand-side realities now. If Amazon makes it lowered forecast the stock price is still too high. The issue with Amazon is its position in the S&P and Nasdaq - when Amazon breaks down and it will in February 2009 - expect the market to be at a new low. When sales drop 25% you don't need analysts - their models simply don't work. I note that Barnes and Nobles on-line sales were relatively flat for the Christmas period when at the same time their store sales are down 17% - so, it's going to be interesting results time for Amazon in their core market - If you are going to take the speculative approach there is more upside potential in many other stocks in the market and they provide dividends.
]]> Sun, 18 Jan 2009 17:02:17 -0500 The reality is that Amazon is vastly overvalued at its current price. Why are analysts theorizing and issuing upgrades based on speculation and potential while ignoring demand-side realities now. If Amazon makes it lowered forecast the stock price is still too high. The issue with Amazon is its position in the S&P and Nasdaq - when Amazon breaks down and it will in February 2009 - expect the market to be at a new low. When sales drop 25% you don't need analysts - their models simply don't work. I note that Barnes and Nobles on-line sales were relatively flat for the Christmas period when at the same time their store sales are down 17% - so, it's going to be interesting results time for Amazon in their core market - If you are going to take the speculative approach there is more upside potential in many other stocks in the market and they provide dividends.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113621-why-i-m-selling-apple-and-google-today-and-holding-amazon?source=feed#comment-349150 349150
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]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111627-amazon-shares-could-appreciate-by-20?source=feed#comment-334356 334356 1. Credit card limits to be culled (already announced) in January
2. An increase of 7% in carrier shipping prices (announced) in January
2. A leveling off in MP3 player sales in core markets - less downloads
2. A rapidly maturing digital camera market
2. A rapidly maturing LCD TV market
5. Internet e-commerce model mature - amazon no longer ahead of competition
6. Increased off line sales competition through liquidation sales - only seeing the tip of the iceberg
7. Deflationary pressures postponing sales
6. Cloud computing is not the holy grail and amazon is struggling to explain benefits
9. Internet tax
8. New competition from social networks - I know amzn is working through linked-in
9. Over estimating Amazons sales based on increased visitor traffic - When I download a CD to the computer I check the song list - this is particularly important for Apple Users believe it or not as the folders don't carry
10. lack of demand for everything that they sell - all discretionary purchases.

Let's face it the only reason Amzn has held up is because it is extremely tightly held and traded stock - you have to wonder sometimes - it defies logic - e-commerce has never seen a recession so we do not know what will follow. I believe that amazon will see single digit growth at best in 2009. I think second quarter will be particularly interesting - I would like to see amzn back at 28 before buying. It is vastly overpriced at current levels and at an extremely risky valuation. Yes it could rise 20% due to short interest in the coming days but I would be shocked if it was above 40 come Feb 09. ]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 20:30:49 -0500 1. Credit card limits to be culled (already announced) in January
2. An increase of 7% in carrier shipping prices (announced) in January
2. A leveling off in MP3 player sales in core markets - less downloads
2. A rapidly maturing digital camera market
2. A rapidly maturing LCD TV market
5. Internet e-commerce model mature - amazon no longer ahead of competition
6. Increased off line sales competition through liquidation sales - only seeing the tip of the iceberg
7. Deflationary pressures postponing sales
6. Cloud computing is not the holy grail and amazon is struggling to explain benefits
9. Internet tax
8. New competition from social networks - I know amzn is working through linked-in
9. Over estimating Amazons sales based on increased visitor traffic - When I download a CD to the computer I check the song list - this is particularly important for Apple Users believe it or not as the folders don't carry
10. lack of demand for everything that they sell - all discretionary purchases.

Let's face it the only reason Amzn has held up is because it is extremely tightly held and traded stock - you have to wonder sometimes - it defies logic - e-commerce has never seen a recession so we do not know what will follow. I believe that amazon will see single digit growth at best in 2009. I think second quarter will be particularly interesting - I would like to see amzn back at 28 before buying. It is vastly overpriced at current levels and at an extremely risky valuation. Yes it could rise 20% due to short interest in the coming days but I would be shocked if it was above 40 come Feb 09. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109544-cyber-monday-second-best-day-ever-for-online-retail?source=feed#comment-323407 323407
Simple Question: is Comscore comparing this year's TG/CM weekend to last years a week earlier or not? If yes, then expect e-commerce sales to drop 7% for the period to December 8th 2008. There is no hidding beyond next Monday.

]]> Sun, 07 Dec 2008 21:48:46 -0500
Simple Question: is Comscore comparing this year's TG/CM weekend to last years a week earlier or not? If yes, then expect e-commerce sales to drop 7% for the period to December 8th 2008. There is no hidding beyond next Monday.

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