Trinitymaster's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/314923/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/115509-again-with-the-bank-blame-game?source=feed#comment-362187 362187
Throw them in jail, seize all of their assets, and then have the smaller yet more stable banks take control.

It will truly be amazing to see big banks being taken over by much smaller banks.]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 14:30:23 -0500
Throw them in jail, seize all of their assets, and then have the smaller yet more stable banks take control.

It will truly be amazing to see big banks being taken over by much smaller banks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115153-best-buy-bounces-on-circuit-city-closure?source=feed#comment-358686 358686
Best Buy should be renamed "Better be high". Which you have to be when you pay 10% more for a product than if you drove down the road to Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart will price match anyone, they have their own credit card, and they usually have a comparable selection to Best Buy.

Best Buy will only gain market share if they can convince a couple of major brands to sell exclusively to them.

Me? I'd like to see Wal-Mart lose market share so that I could open up a general store in my small town. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen.

Best Buy is history. Many times I've said buy puts and wait. However that strategy has almost destroyed me as people tend to do everything they can to pump Best Buy's stock price to artificially high levels.

They will file bankruptcy, but they'll be sneaky about it. The stock will be in the 20's, all of their executives will exercise their options (and then sell the stock), and then they'll "unexpectedly" file for bankruptcy protection.]]> Sat, 17 Jan 2009 21:25:36 -0500
Best Buy should be renamed "Better be high". Which you have to be when you pay 10% more for a product than if you drove down the road to Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart will price match anyone, they have their own credit card, and they usually have a comparable selection to Best Buy.

Best Buy will only gain market share if they can convince a couple of major brands to sell exclusively to them.

Me? I'd like to see Wal-Mart lose market share so that I could open up a general store in my small town. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen.

Best Buy is history. Many times I've said buy puts and wait. However that strategy has almost destroyed me as people tend to do everything they can to pump Best Buy's stock price to artificially high levels.

They will file bankruptcy, but they'll be sneaky about it. The stock will be in the 20's, all of their executives will exercise their options (and then sell the stock), and then they'll "unexpectedly" file for bankruptcy protection.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115138-why-the-housing-stats-are-lumpy?source=feed#comment-358668 358668
This is what you call a "NO SHIT, SHERLOCK!" conclusion.

When I lived in California (about 6 years ago) there was a trend for several middle-income families to "go in" on an ungodly expensive house, live there for a couple of years, and then sell it for a huge profit. I wonder how many multiple-family households, now that the market has nose-dived, had their credit detroyed using this technique.]]> Sat, 17 Jan 2009 20:44:11 -0500
This is what you call a "NO SHIT, SHERLOCK!" conclusion.

When I lived in California (about 6 years ago) there was a trend for several middle-income families to "go in" on an ungodly expensive house, live there for a couple of years, and then sell it for a huge profit. I wonder how many multiple-family households, now that the market has nose-dived, had their credit detroyed using this technique.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114898-massive-inflationary-pressures-will-lead-to-uptrend-in-gold?source=feed#comment-357269 357269
1) People who invest in Gold securities have the mistaken impression that they actually own that much gold. That's like buying Ford stock under the impression that you now own part of their factories.

2) Gold (usually) goes up during periods of inflation-
BIG FREAKING DEAL! Everything else goes up as well.

3) Rich people who admire Gold are the ones that give gold its highly subjective value. Case in point: Amber and aluminum were once considered more valuable then gold. A quick glance at the history books should also remind people of how valuable spices once were.

]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 02:25:52 -0500
1) People who invest in Gold securities have the mistaken impression that they actually own that much gold. That's like buying Ford stock under the impression that you now own part of their factories.

2) Gold (usually) goes up during periods of inflation-
BIG FREAKING DEAL! Everything else goes up as well.

3) Rich people who admire Gold are the ones that give gold its highly subjective value. Case in point: Amber and aluminum were once considered more valuable then gold. A quick glance at the history books should also remind people of how valuable spices once were.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114941-bofa-following-citigroup-to-5-or-lower?source=feed#comment-357261 357261
1) Healthcare: Tele-nursing and remote surgeries are already happening. How long before we have dirt cheap Indian nurses and doctors working in American hospitals from their remote sites in Delhi?

2) Government: They outsource a butt-load of jobs to foreign lands. Everything from call centers to document preparation.

3) Industry- Ha, Ha! Made you laugh- Didn't I]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 02:10:32 -0500
1) Healthcare: Tele-nursing and remote surgeries are already happening. How long before we have dirt cheap Indian nurses and doctors working in American hospitals from their remote sites in Delhi?

2) Government: They outsource a butt-load of jobs to foreign lands. Everything from call centers to document preparation.

3) Industry- Ha, Ha! Made you laugh- Didn't I]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114210-real-unemployment-closer-to-18-watch-those-long-positions?source=feed#comment-354073 354073
And how about PROTECTIONISM? I say go for it. Hell, it helped turn a small depression into a Great Depression.

GD two is here. Can anyone show me where the nearest soup-line is?]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 03:01:29 -0500
And how about PROTECTIONISM? I say go for it. Hell, it helped turn a small depression into a Great Depression.

GD two is here. Can anyone show me where the nearest soup-line is?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114055-yet-another-gruesome-employment-report?source=feed#comment-350827 350827
I still contend that real under/unemployment is 25%.

I'm a little nervous that we are moving dangerously close to the "Greater" Depression and World War III.

We will HAVE to go to war with China to resolve our debtor status (if we don't pull out of our economic slump within the next ten years). This war will most likely play out in other countries, but it will still be China vs USA.]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 11:51:12 -0500
I still contend that real under/unemployment is 25%.

I'm a little nervous that we are moving dangerously close to the "Greater" Depression and World War III.

We will HAVE to go to war with China to resolve our debtor status (if we don't pull out of our economic slump within the next ten years). This war will most likely play out in other countries, but it will still be China vs USA.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113817-what-is-going-on-with-gold?source=feed#comment-350420 350420
Gold only has real value when it is converted into currency.

Besides- we don't really know if the gold we invest in actually exists. What is to prevent a company from buying $100 million worth of gold, sell securities tied to it, and then sell the gold out the back door?

]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:18:05 -0500
Gold only has real value when it is converted into currency.

Besides- we don't really know if the gold we invest in actually exists. What is to prevent a company from buying $100 million worth of gold, sell securities tied to it, and then sell the gold out the back door?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113511-best-buy-gains-market-share-starts-selling-refurbished-iphones?source=feed#comment-350371 350371 Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:13:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113511-best-buy-gains-market-share-starts-selling-refurbished-iphones?source=feed#comment-350367 350367
biz.yahoo.com/e/090108...

Does anyone else smell a Ponzi Chef at work?]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:08:53 -0500
biz.yahoo.com/e/090108...

Does anyone else smell a Ponzi Chef at work?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111692-another-reason-not-to-trust-so-called-economic-experts?source=feed#comment-349308 349308
25,000 after Obama's first term (2014 I would imagine)

Crashing like a meteorite sometime around 2017

We are in the second year of a SEVERE ten year downturn.
However, if we have a major war involving 8 or 9 countries, then we might only go down to 11,000 after we hit the modified high-point of only 16,000.



On Dec 21 01:53 PM babycondor wrote:

> "The DJIA is headed to 7500 or lower, and then up to 25,000. And
> then back down to 14,000. " -- Trinitymaster
>
> Over what time frame?]]> Thu, 08 Jan 2009 00:40:32 -0500
25,000 after Obama's first term (2014 I would imagine)

Crashing like a meteorite sometime around 2017

We are in the second year of a SEVERE ten year downturn.
However, if we have a major war involving 8 or 9 countries, then we might only go down to 11,000 after we hit the modified high-point of only 16,000.



On Dec 21 01:53 PM babycondor wrote:

> "The DJIA is headed to 7500 or lower, and then up to 25,000. And
> then back down to 14,000. " -- Trinitymaster
>
> Over what time frame?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113270-the-danger-in-financial-stocks-in-2009?source=feed#comment-349303 349303 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 00:30:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113198-manufacturing-collapse-reminiscent-of-great-depression-s-beginning?source=feed#comment-347161 347161
96% of 401k's are about to be wiped out when people get back into the market and realize (way too late) that the Market is being manipulated.

The DOW should be at 5000 and not a penny higher.]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 05:11:35 -0500
96% of 401k's are about to be wiped out when people get back into the market and realize (way too late) that the Market is being manipulated.

The DOW should be at 5000 and not a penny higher.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112895-market-and-economy-predictions-for-2009?source=feed#comment-343952 343952
He's on the right track. Everyone says to buy now because everything is "half-off."

Consider this:
Housing values had quadrupled in the last 20 years before the current CRASH. What if housing values were inflated before they started on their exponential journey?

We may have to correct to 1985 prices before the bottom is reached.

Now, look at the Stock Market- It more than tripled from October of 1993 (around 3300) to August of 2000 (around 11,000). Since then, the market has been correcting.

Sure- we had a huge "Sucker's Rally" that peaked near the end of 2007.

It is possible that we will correct to 1993 levels.

Keep cash on hand. Don't put any extra money into the Stock Market.

What we are going through now is only the beginning.]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 04:04:02 -0500
He's on the right track. Everyone says to buy now because everything is "half-off."

Consider this:
Housing values had quadrupled in the last 20 years before the current CRASH. What if housing values were inflated before they started on their exponential journey?

We may have to correct to 1985 prices before the bottom is reached.

Now, look at the Stock Market- It more than tripled from October of 1993 (around 3300) to August of 2000 (around 11,000). Since then, the market has been correcting.

Sure- we had a huge "Sucker's Rally" that peaked near the end of 2007.

It is possible that we will correct to 1993 levels.

Keep cash on hand. Don't put any extra money into the Stock Market.

What we are going through now is only the beginning.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112844-can-deflation-be-avoided?source=feed#comment-343569 343569

On Jan 01 12:21 PM AlexR wrote:

> If there is severe deflation in rich countries, what would keep emerging
> markets, which historically have no qualms about printing money,
> from buying up the world?]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 14:39:47 -0500

On Jan 01 12:21 PM AlexR wrote:

> If there is severe deflation in rich countries, what would keep emerging
> markets, which historically have no qualms about printing money,
> from buying up the world?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112897-unemployment-s-surprisingly-large-drop?source=feed#comment-343551 343551
When hard-working people, who are willing to break their backs for less than minimum wage, can't find jobs- then you know how truly screwed we really are

The numbers (once again) are being manipulated by those who are totally embarassed by their handling of our fragile economy.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 14:18:47 -0500
When hard-working people, who are willing to break their backs for less than minimum wage, can't find jobs- then you know how truly screwed we really are

The numbers (once again) are being manipulated by those who are totally embarassed by their handling of our fragile economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111882-u-s-economy-sinking-in-an-ocean-of-newly-minted-money?source=feed#comment-336343 336343

On Dec 22 02:28 PM constructe wrote:

> The velocity of money they are talking about is where the money supply
> was turned into CDS and CDO contracts and then spun around about
> 100 times from $400 billion to $40 trillion dollars over a course
> of 3 or 4 years. The reason you don't see it is called Base 1 which
> allowed banks to hide all their gambles off their balance sheet because
> basically they aren't really an investment. Duh.
>
> This was done to help banks leverage themselves out of the dot com
> mess. So you are 100% correct in your analysis. That's why there
> is no velocity of money now. Actually, there should be no money at
> all if you cleared all this ficticious accounting. It accounts for
> about the same as the net worth of all Americans.
>
> Now you know how hoplessly stupid the banking system got under Alan
> Greenspan and Bush Jr's administration that asked every regulator
> to take a 8 year nap.
>
> So now the Fed has been adding trillions to it's balance sheet to
> remake money to try to get some velocity going again. Unfortunately,
> since no one knows the total liability of the CDS and CDO contracts
> still, nor who owns them or owes them, no one feels very confident
> doing any loans. Would you?
>
> So the real question is, when will the banks, Fed, Treasury, and
> government own up to this derivatives mess and clean it up. Otherwise,
> we are in limbo no matter how much the fed inflates. There is a big
> hole in the baloon and it's going CDSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS...]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 03:12:06 -0500

On Dec 22 02:28 PM constructe wrote:

> The velocity of money they are talking about is where the money supply
> was turned into CDS and CDO contracts and then spun around about
> 100 times from $400 billion to $40 trillion dollars over a course
> of 3 or 4 years. The reason you don't see it is called Base 1 which
> allowed banks to hide all their gambles off their balance sheet because
> basically they aren't really an investment. Duh.
>
> This was done to help banks leverage themselves out of the dot com
> mess. So you are 100% correct in your analysis. That's why there
> is no velocity of money now. Actually, there should be no money at
> all if you cleared all this ficticious accounting. It accounts for
> about the same as the net worth of all Americans.
>
> Now you know how hoplessly stupid the banking system got under Alan
> Greenspan and Bush Jr's administration that asked every regulator
> to take a 8 year nap.
>
> So now the Fed has been adding trillions to it's balance sheet to
> remake money to try to get some velocity going again. Unfortunately,
> since no one knows the total liability of the CDS and CDO contracts
> still, nor who owns them or owes them, no one feels very confident
> doing any loans. Would you?
>
> So the real question is, when will the banks, Fed, Treasury, and
> government own up to this derivatives mess and clean it up. Otherwise,
> we are in limbo no matter how much the fed inflates. There is a big
> hole in the baloon and it's going CDSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111673-could-it-be-a-happy-new-year-for-chrysler?source=feed#comment-335176 335176 It can be done. Whichever one of the big three brings out an SUV that gets 35 miles/gallon, and costs less than $25,000- will dominate the market.

BTW- it costs about the same amount to produce a large vehicle as it does a small vehicle.

P.S.: People are truly misinformed when they say that Legacy Costs are the root of Detroit's problems.]]> Sun, 21 Dec 2008 16:35:31 -0500 It can be done. Whichever one of the big three brings out an SUV that gets 35 miles/gallon, and costs less than $25,000- will dominate the market.

BTW- it costs about the same amount to produce a large vehicle as it does a small vehicle.

P.S.: People are truly misinformed when they say that Legacy Costs are the root of Detroit's problems.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111697-despite-everything-capitalism-is-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-335083 335083
The Stock Market is not an example of Capitalism at work.
Free Market Capitalism is about as real as the tooth fairy, and it's true location is Never-Never Land.

Second:
Ford's CEO receives (not earns) roughly $28 million/year.

Typical Assembly-line worker: $80,000/year (lots and lots of overtime figured in here).

CEO loses billions each year. Assembly-line worker produces $800,000.00 worth of product.

Now, tell me how the worker is the problem

Third:
The Author looks like a KGB Agent. Thank God he doesn't know how to find me.

]]> Sun, 21 Dec 2008 13:17:05 -0500
The Stock Market is not an example of Capitalism at work.
Free Market Capitalism is about as real as the tooth fairy, and it's true location is Never-Never Land.

Second:
Ford's CEO receives (not earns) roughly $28 million/year.

Typical Assembly-line worker: $80,000/year (lots and lots of overtime figured in here).

CEO loses billions each year. Assembly-line worker produces $800,000.00 worth of product.

Now, tell me how the worker is the problem

Third:
The Author looks like a KGB Agent. Thank God he doesn't know how to find me.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111692-another-reason-not-to-trust-so-called-economic-experts?source=feed#comment-335063 335063
1. Real Estate prices went up for no good reason whatsoever.
Anyone remember the late 1980's when California Real Estate dropped 50% in one year? Maybe you can ask a farmer who lost his land when he borrowed $3000/acre against ground that was actually worth $500/acre.

2. Let's talk about 1973: The stock market collapsed in January (predicted by every poor adult that I knew at the tender age of 6), OPEC imposed the Oil Embargo in October of that same year and oil went through the roof. However, it skyrocketed because of perceived shortages- not actual ones (The USA imported less than 15% of its oil from the Middle East).

And what was the Central Banks' response? You guessed it- They cut interest rates which only made things worse.

My Predictions:

1. This Mortgage Crisis is nothing compared to the coming one. With new homeowners buying at artificially higher prices, caused by artificially lower interest rates, house values will crash when mortgage rates increase.
The only solution is to raise interest rates up to 3.5% (compared to 0-.25%) causing mortgage rates to rise to 7%. It'll hurt many in the short term, but save all of us in the long term.

2. The DJIA is headed to 7500 or lower, and then up to 25,000. And then back down to 14,000.

And these, my friends, are my optimistic projections.]]> Sun, 21 Dec 2008 12:44:29 -0500
1. Real Estate prices went up for no good reason whatsoever.
Anyone remember the late 1980's when California Real Estate dropped 50% in one year? Maybe you can ask a farmer who lost his land when he borrowed $3000/acre against ground that was actually worth $500/acre.

2. Let's talk about 1973: The stock market collapsed in January (predicted by every poor adult that I knew at the tender age of 6), OPEC imposed the Oil Embargo in October of that same year and oil went through the roof. However, it skyrocketed because of perceived shortages- not actual ones (The USA imported less than 15% of its oil from the Middle East).

And what was the Central Banks' response? You guessed it- They cut interest rates which only made things worse.

My Predictions:

1. This Mortgage Crisis is nothing compared to the coming one. With new homeowners buying at artificially higher prices, caused by artificially lower interest rates, house values will crash when mortgage rates increase.
The only solution is to raise interest rates up to 3.5% (compared to 0-.25%) causing mortgage rates to rise to 7%. It'll hurt many in the short term, but save all of us in the long term.

2. The DJIA is headed to 7500 or lower, and then up to 25,000. And then back down to 14,000.

And these, my friends, are my optimistic projections.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111672-federal-commitments-now-total-5-trillion?source=feed#comment-334986 334986 Sun, 21 Dec 2008 10:55:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111634-35-oil-steve-forbes-was-off-by-two-years?source=feed#comment-334712 334712



On Dec 19 01:14 PM Tesa wrote:

> My mother who has never touched stocks in her life can easily make
> predictions like that too. If its up then one can predict that it
> will do down and 2 years is a long time. But did he predict the housing
> market collapse and credit market collapse.
>
> My prediction is that oil will go up to 100$ again. Let me know when
> I end up right. I may in fact be an oracle.
>
> What I do know is that break even for XOM extracting oil is about
> 35$ and that is a cheap one for north America and if it oil prices
> go bellow then expect major shutting of oil wells and with credit
> market being poor expect the same scenario for them as auto sector.
> You can also remind me if end up to be an oracle predicting that.]]> Sat, 20 Dec 2008 16:06:25 -0500



On Dec 19 01:14 PM Tesa wrote:

> My mother who has never touched stocks in her life can easily make
> predictions like that too. If its up then one can predict that it
> will do down and 2 years is a long time. But did he predict the housing
> market collapse and credit market collapse.
>
> My prediction is that oil will go up to 100$ again. Let me know when
> I end up right. I may in fact be an oracle.
>
> What I do know is that break even for XOM extracting oil is about
> 35$ and that is a cheap one for north America and if it oil prices
> go bellow then expect major shutting of oil wells and with credit
> market being poor expect the same scenario for them as auto sector.
> You can also remind me if end up to be an oracle predicting that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111655-the-deflation-scam?source=feed#comment-334651 334651
The only safe haven for cash (besides cash) is your spare change stored in coffee cans. Hoard every penny that you can.

I only invest in options. I'm in and out in one day (two at the max).

BTW, anyone remember gold being $900+ many many years ago, then it went down to $300?

]]> Sat, 20 Dec 2008 13:48:56 -0500
The only safe haven for cash (besides cash) is your spare change stored in coffee cans. Hoard every penny that you can.

I only invest in options. I'm in and out in one day (two at the max).

BTW, anyone remember gold being $900+ many many years ago, then it went down to $300?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110980-tuesday-options-update-bby-gs-pot-mos-aapl?source=feed#comment-331415 331415
GS is going to nosedive, eventually (again). The US Treasury does not have enough money to buy all of the toxic mortgages.

Buy PUTS at rock-bottom prices, and wait.]]> Tue, 16 Dec 2008 18:02:00 -0500
GS is going to nosedive, eventually (again). The US Treasury does not have enough money to buy all of the toxic mortgages.

Buy PUTS at rock-bottom prices, and wait.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110171-auto-industry-can-we-get-a-twofer?source=feed#comment-326107 326107 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 03:58:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109449-s-p-set-for-50-gains-not-so-fast-ubs?source=feed#comment-323419 323419
Until then, take advantage of stocks that refuse to die- like Target (horrible fundamentals, bleeding money). DAYTRADE in and out only. "BUY and HOLD" is now renamed "ANTE and FOLD". There is no long term strategy anymore. In and out, that's the only way nowadays.]]> Sun, 07 Dec 2008 22:19:55 -0500
Until then, take advantage of stocks that refuse to die- like Target (horrible fundamentals, bleeding money). DAYTRADE in and out only. "BUY and HOLD" is now renamed "ANTE and FOLD". There is no long term strategy anymore. In and out, that's the only way nowadays.]]>