Trinitymaster

Manufacturing Collapse Reminiscent of Great Depression's Beginning

The sad thing is that pathetic stocks like Best Buy, Ford, and Hartford are going up when they should be tanking even further.

96% of 401k's are about to be wiped out when people get back into the market and realize (way too late) that the Market is being manipulated.

The DOW should be at 5000 and not a penny higher.

Why the Housing Stats Are Lumpy

Wow- really? People speculated in the segments of housing with the highest potential to rise exponentially in price?

This is what you call a "NO SHIT, SHERLOCK!" conclusion.

When I lived in California (about 6 years ago) there was a trend for several middle-income families to "go in" on an ungodly expensive house, live there for a couple of years, and then sell it for a huge profit. I wonder how many multiple-family households, now that the market has nose-dived, had their credit detroyed using this technique.

Massive Inflationary Pressures Will Lead to Uptrend in Gold

Even if you're 100% correct, there is still no guarantee of a positive outcome.

1) People who invest in Gold securities have the mistaken impression that they actually own that much gold. That's like buying Ford stock under the impression that you now own part of their factories.

2) Gold (usually) goes up during periods of inflation-
BIG FREAKING DEAL! Everything else goes up as well.

3) Rich people who admire Gold are the ones that give gold its highly subjective value. Case in point: Amber and aluminum were once considered more valuable then gold. A quick glance at the history books should also remind people of how valuable spices once were.

Yet Another Gruesome Employment Report

Virgil and I are on the same page. These unemployment numbers are lagging by some 8-10 percentage points.

I still contend that real under/unemployment is 25%.

I'm a little nervous that we are moving dangerously close to the "Greater" Depression and World War III.

We will HAVE to go to war with China to resolve our debtor status (if we don't pull out of our economic slump within the next ten years). This war will most likely play out in other countries, but it will still be China vs USA.

Market and Economy Predictions for 2009

MrGeneric said "Everyone wants to be a Messiah nowadays. What a cheap prediction. I'll buy that for... 50 cents on the dollar!"

He's on the right track. Everyone says to buy now because everything is "half-off."

Consider this:
Housing values had quadrupled in the last 20 years before the current CRASH. What if housing values were inflated before they started on their exponential journey?

We may have to correct to 1985 prices before the bottom is reached.

Now, look at the Stock Market- It more than tripled from October of 1993 (around 3300) to August of 2000 (around 11,000). Since then, the market has been correcting.

Sure- we had a huge "Sucker's Rally" that peaked near the end of 2007.

It is possible that we will correct to 1993 levels.

Keep cash on hand. Don't put any extra money into the Stock Market.

What we are going through now is only the beginning.

The Deflation Scam

Gold is a fool's bet. Stocks are a sucker's bet. Invest in yourself first. Get an education. I agree with investing in Campbell's soup (the soup on the shelves, not Campbell's stock) if you think financial armageddon is imminent.

The only safe haven for cash (besides cash) is your spare change stored in coffee cans. Hoard every penny that you can.

I only invest in options. I'm in and out in one day (two at the max).

BTW, anyone remember gold being $900+ many many years ago, then it went down to $300?

BofA Following Citigroup to $5 or Lower

The future is indeed bleak. We are consumers of foreign technology. The only industry we have that can't be outsourced is.... OMFG- There isn't one

1) Healthcare: Tele-nursing and remote surgeries are already happening. How long before we have dirt cheap Indian nurses and doctors working in American hospitals from their remote sites in Delhi?

2) Government: They outsource a butt-load of jobs to foreign lands. Everything from call centers to document preparation.

3) Industry- Ha, Ha! Made you laugh- Didn't I

Best Buy Gains Market Share, Starts Selling Refurbished iPhones

Their SEC form 10Q quarterly report, that is

Best Buy Gains Market Share, Starts Selling Refurbished iPhones

Did anyone notice that Best Buy's Third Quarter makes frequent reference to "Third Quarter 2009"?

biz.yahoo.com/e/090108...

Does anyone else smell a Ponzi Chef at work?

Another Reason Not to Trust So-Called Economic Experts

7500 or lower- by mid February

25,000 after Obama's first term (2014 I would imagine)

Crashing like a meteorite sometime around 2017

We are in the second year of a SEVERE ten year downturn.
However, if we have a major war involving 8 or 9 countries, then we might only go down to 11,000 after we hit the modified high-point of only 16,000.



On Dec 21 01:53 PM babycondor wrote:

> "The DJIA is headed to 7500 or lower, and then up to 25,000. And
> then back down to 14,000. " -- Trinitymaster
>
> Over what time frame?

Can Deflation Be Avoided?

Chinese investors are already buying up California real estate. This proves that their currency is worthless. Everyone wants to invest in developed countries because it is only a matter of time before the emerging markets plummet into civil unrest.


On Jan 01 12:21 PM AlexR wrote:

> If there is severe deflation in rich countries, what would keep emerging
> markets, which historically have no qualms about printing money,
> from buying up the world?

Unemployment's Surprisingly Large Drop

We will see 8% unemployment by mid-January. True unemployment/underempl... is around 30%. Did anyone notice that most of the Mexicans are going home?

When hard-working people, who are willing to break their backs for less than minimum wage, can't find jobs- then you know how truly screwed we really are

The numbers (once again) are being manipulated by those who are totally embarassed by their handling of our fragile economy.

U.S. Economy: Sinking in an Ocean of Newly-Minted Money

I said about the same thing in the comment section of another blog. Why won't people wake-up? Get out the crazy glue, people- Humpty Dumpty is teetering on the edge.


On Dec 22 02:28 PM constructe wrote:

> The velocity of money they are talking about is where the money supply
> was turned into CDS and CDO contracts and then spun around about
> 100 times from $400 billion to $40 trillion dollars over a course
> of 3 or 4 years. The reason you don't see it is called Base 1 which
> allowed banks to hide all their gambles off their balance sheet because
> basically they aren't really an investment. Duh.
>
> This was done to help banks leverage themselves out of the dot com
> mess. So you are 100% correct in your analysis. That's why there
> is no velocity of money now. Actually, there should be no money at
> all if you cleared all this ficticious accounting. It accounts for
> about the same as the net worth of all Americans.
>
> Now you know how hoplessly stupid the banking system got under Alan
> Greenspan and Bush Jr's administration that asked every regulator
> to take a 8 year nap.
>
> So now the Fed has been adding trillions to it's balance sheet to
> remake money to try to get some velocity going again. Unfortunately,
> since no one knows the total liability of the CDS and CDO contracts
> still, nor who owns them or owes them, no one feels very confident
> doing any loans. Would you?
>
> So the real question is, when will the banks, Fed, Treasury, and
> government own up to this derivatives mess and clean it up. Otherwise,
> we are in limbo no matter how much the fed inflates. There is a big
> hole in the baloon and it's going CDSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS...

Could It Be a Happy New Year for Chrysler?

The car companies need to make big vehicles that get the same mileage as smaller cars.
It can be done. Whichever one of the big three brings out an SUV that gets 35 miles/gallon, and costs less than $25,000- will dominate the market.

BTW- it costs about the same amount to produce a large vehicle as it does a small vehicle.

P.S.: People are truly misinformed when they say that Legacy Costs are the root of Detroit's problems.

Despite Everything, Capitalism Is Alive and Well

First of all:

The Stock Market is not an example of Capitalism at work.
Free Market Capitalism is about as real as the tooth fairy, and it's true location is Never-Never Land.

Second:
Ford's CEO receives (not earns) roughly $28 million/year.

Typical Assembly-line worker: $80,000/year (lots and lots of overtime figured in here).

CEO loses billions each year. Assembly-line worker produces $800,000.00 worth of product.

Now, tell me how the worker is the problem

Third:
The Author looks like a KGB Agent. Thank God he doesn't know how to find me.