U.S. Dollar: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood? [View article]
On Mar 31 07:46 AM Lilguy wrote: The German Mark ????????? > Yep, I agree that right now, we're ugly, but everyone else is uglier. > Unfortunately, that doesn't help US exports, which are desperately > needed in this global economic crunch, and conversely encourages > US companies with capital to invest abroad (largely in the context > of outsourcing US jobs--another negative economic factor for the > US). > > That said, at some time the global economy will stabilize (my guess: > maybe next year) and then the markets will be somewhat more focused > on the longer term value of the dollar vs. other currencies. In general, > my expectation is that the US dollar will then return to its historic--steady, > but slow--decline among the world's major currencies. > > I think the longer term deterioration in the US dollar will be most > evident in relation to Asian currencies, especially the Yen. What > China decides to do with its currency will also be interesting--to > peg or not to the dollar at artificially high levels. > > In Europe, the relative weakening of the dollar will be most evident > against the German Mark. I suspect the British Pound will sink with > us, maybe even at a faster rate. > > Still, because of the multiple global dimensions of forex, its short-term > direction at any one time can be affected by really obscure forces--not > the kind an ordinary investor (like myself) can easily identify on > a timely basis. So it's unlikely I will invest much in forex markets > and, if I do so, it's likely to be through a mutual fund or ETF (if > one exists).
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U.S. Dollar: Best House in a Bad Neighborhood? [View article]
On Mar 31 07:46 AM Lilguy wrote:
The German Mark ?????????
> Yep, I agree that right now, we're ugly, but everyone else is uglier.
> Unfortunately, that doesn't help US exports, which are desperately
> needed in this global economic crunch, and conversely encourages
> US companies with capital to invest abroad (largely in the context
> of outsourcing US jobs--another negative economic factor for the
> US).
>
> That said, at some time the global economy will stabilize (my guess:
> maybe next year) and then the markets will be somewhat more focused
> on the longer term value of the dollar vs. other currencies. In general,
> my expectation is that the US dollar will then return to its historic--steady,
> but slow--decline among the world's major currencies.
>
> I think the longer term deterioration in the US dollar will be most
> evident in relation to Asian currencies, especially the Yen. What
> China decides to do with its currency will also be interesting--to
> peg or not to the dollar at artificially high levels.
>
> In Europe, the relative weakening of the dollar will be most evident
> against the German Mark. I suspect the British Pound will sink with
> us, maybe even at a faster rate.
>
> Still, because of the multiple global dimensions of forex, its short-term
> direction at any one time can be affected by really obscure forces--not
> the kind an ordinary investor (like myself) can easily identify on
> a timely basis. So it's unlikely I will invest much in forex markets
> and, if I do so, it's likely to be through a mutual fund or ETF (if
> one exists).
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