Spudster's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/315175/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/117014/comments?source=feed#comment-368517 368517
It is so well disguised that I can't see it.

'Take my wife, please!']]> Wed, 28 Jan 2009 10:02:40 -0500
It is so well disguised that I can't see it.

'Take my wife, please!']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116262/comments?source=feed#comment-365443 365443
Yes, public debt has been higher in the past.

But both the UK and the US previous spikes were due to major wars: Napoleon on the former and WW II for the latter.

But either way, the other major missing salient point is private debt.

In the past private debt didn't matter that much because it never amounted to a major percentage of GDP.

But that isn't true anymore. The advent of the FIRE (Financial, Insurance, Real Estate) economy has catapulted private debt to levels over even public debt.

Thus while public debt today is not as high as it has been in the past, the combination of public and private debt is as high as ever seen in history. As the massive public spending in both the UK and US continues, the aggregate sum of public and private will easily surpass all previous efforts.

And while in the 2 wars - the populace of each respective nation were willing to undergo major sacrifices in order to 'fight for freedom', I for one have zero eagerness to sacrifice to fight for my neighbor's Alt-A loan, or a big 5 bank's bonus pool, or Joe Blow's $10,000 credit card debt incurred buying a 52" LCD TV which I myself prudently have not yet bought.

Before it was 'God Save the Queen' and 'Uncle Sam Wants You'.

Somehow 'Bailout for Banksters' and 'Help for Debtor Dan' doesn't have the same ring.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 08:57:59 -0500
Yes, public debt has been higher in the past.

But both the UK and the US previous spikes were due to major wars: Napoleon on the former and WW II for the latter.

But either way, the other major missing salient point is private debt.

In the past private debt didn't matter that much because it never amounted to a major percentage of GDP.

But that isn't true anymore. The advent of the FIRE (Financial, Insurance, Real Estate) economy has catapulted private debt to levels over even public debt.

Thus while public debt today is not as high as it has been in the past, the combination of public and private debt is as high as ever seen in history. As the massive public spending in both the UK and US continues, the aggregate sum of public and private will easily surpass all previous efforts.

And while in the 2 wars - the populace of each respective nation were willing to undergo major sacrifices in order to 'fight for freedom', I for one have zero eagerness to sacrifice to fight for my neighbor's Alt-A loan, or a big 5 bank's bonus pool, or Joe Blow's $10,000 credit card debt incurred buying a 52" LCD TV which I myself prudently have not yet bought.

Before it was 'God Save the Queen' and 'Uncle Sam Wants You'.

Somehow 'Bailout for Banksters' and 'Help for Debtor Dan' doesn't have the same ring.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112391/comments?source=feed#comment-339686 339686
Oversupply of polysilicon due to almost a dozen new entrants into the market is going to lead to a halving of solar cell prices. That, plus cyclical lack of demand due to both saturation in Europe and a collapse of new housing in the US bodes very poorly for any maker of solar cells - especially a new one.

How can LDK as a solar cell provider AND a polysilicon maker hope to have any type of decent earnings in this environment?

With overall overall solar market sales set to decline plus unit prices collapsing - sometimes a catastrophic stock price drop is deserved.]]> Sun, 28 Dec 2008 10:01:34 -0500
Oversupply of polysilicon due to almost a dozen new entrants into the market is going to lead to a halving of solar cell prices. That, plus cyclical lack of demand due to both saturation in Europe and a collapse of new housing in the US bodes very poorly for any maker of solar cells - especially a new one.

How can LDK as a solar cell provider AND a polysilicon maker hope to have any type of decent earnings in this environment?

With overall overall solar market sales set to decline plus unit prices collapsing - sometimes a catastrophic stock price drop is deserved.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109521/comments?source=feed#comment-323714 323714
The theory could be as follows:

Wave 1: Marginal buyers originally forced into outlying areas by affordability are the first to fall, driving down prices in these areas

Wave 2: Volume of sales in 'prime' areas falls as price falls in nearby outlying areas promotes uncertainty in buyers. Buyers in inland areas start migrating outward.

Wave 3: Job losses across the board act as a forcing function to cause those losing jobs (and not able to find new ones) to sell - either to relocate to another part of the country or to a more affordable area. Prices in interior areas start to exhibit greater price reductions. In turn this starts putting more pressure on outlying areas as their relative affordability in Wave 2 drops.

Rinse. Repeat.]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 10:02:39 -0500
The theory could be as follows:

Wave 1: Marginal buyers originally forced into outlying areas by affordability are the first to fall, driving down prices in these areas

Wave 2: Volume of sales in 'prime' areas falls as price falls in nearby outlying areas promotes uncertainty in buyers. Buyers in inland areas start migrating outward.

Wave 3: Job losses across the board act as a forcing function to cause those losing jobs (and not able to find new ones) to sell - either to relocate to another part of the country or to a more affordable area. Prices in interior areas start to exhibit greater price reductions. In turn this starts putting more pressure on outlying areas as their relative affordability in Wave 2 drops.

Rinse. Repeat.]]>