Bad Dog

Where the Market Sees the Economy Moving in 2009

The talk of recovery in 2009 is really just good old-fashioned denial. We are shedding in excess of 500,000 jobs per month. Retail sales have been falling worse than expected. Wages are falling too. There is a deflationary tsunami building now, and we haven't seen a crest yet. Look for the next month's job loss number. I expect it to remain at 500,000. If that rate is maintained to mid-year, it will finally break through the denial mentality in the US and people will at last accept that we are in the midst of a huge deflationary depression. This can be ameliorated by government action but not prevented.


On Jan 14 10:13 AM know nothing wrote:

> It appears they are ignoring the oil production cuts,which should
> raise oil prices in 2009,taking a good share of any potential future
> profits that could assist the recovery process,and they are ignoring
> all the other struggling countries who are in bail out mode just
> for survival! Theres not much room for growth when the world seems
> to be in survival mode! When december retail sales fall as much as
> they did, (Dec typically being the strongest retail sales) What is
> Jan, Feb, March, going to look like? Did everyone forget about the
> unemployment numbers from Dec? Don't forget the new scam called
> "CRAMDOWN" if this takes effect,look out!! What lending institution
> will lend to any consumer, when a bankruptcy court can wipe out
> a portion the original mortgage? This would be a banking disaster
> of unprecidented proportions! I'll believe a recovery in "09" when
> I see it! We have a long road to hoe.