Joe in Chicago's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/315320/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/129500-banking-on-energy-rather-than-currency-or-gold?source=feed#comment-452483 452483 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:52:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126449-why-do-people-make-market-forecasts?source=feed#comment-430084 430084
The fact that a career academic and policymaker like Roubini doesn't know how worthless his opinions are speaks volumes. Who cares if the market is going to 5,000 ... 6,000? What's it going to tomorrow and when will it change course? That's what I need to know. Unless you can predict movements with 100% accuracy, I don't see the value.

If you were to take Roubini literally, you would have been short and missed an incredible run these past six trading days. In fact, shorting the Dow would have lost you 13% PLUS the 13% gain you would have made if you were long (opportunity cost). That's a 26% swing. If you were trading 2X ETF's, the difference would've been 52%!

Ignore the predictions and don't fight the tape.]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 23:44:21 -0400
The fact that a career academic and policymaker like Roubini doesn't know how worthless his opinions are speaks volumes. Who cares if the market is going to 5,000 ... 6,000? What's it going to tomorrow and when will it change course? That's what I need to know. Unless you can predict movements with 100% accuracy, I don't see the value.

If you were to take Roubini literally, you would have been short and missed an incredible run these past six trading days. In fact, shorting the Dow would have lost you 13% PLUS the 13% gain you would have made if you were long (opportunity cost). That's a 26% swing. If you were trading 2X ETF's, the difference would've been 52%!

Ignore the predictions and don't fight the tape.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109772-elizabeth-warren-the-wrong-person-to-oversee-tarp?source=feed#comment-326691 326691
www.youtube.com/watch?...]]> Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:24:10 -0500
www.youtube.com/watch?...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109772-elizabeth-warren-the-wrong-person-to-oversee-tarp?source=feed#comment-326606 326606
In a CNBC interview, yesterday, she made a few points clear: There is NO overarching strategy regarding TARP activity and that the primary challenge, troubled mortgages, has yet to be addressed. According to Prof Warren, 1 in 6 mortgages will be in foreclosure, shortly.

And today, Jamie Dimon went on CNBC and explained how JP Morgan/Chase did not need $25B of TARP funds but would not be writing down mortgage principal. Of course, he sees future losses with WaMu's portfolio (which they recently acquired) but they won't be the first to blink.

It's pretty clear that TARP has major shortcomings and having Prof Warren watchig over the banks is clearly the best news coming out of Washington in recent weeks.]]> Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:49:10 -0500
In a CNBC interview, yesterday, she made a few points clear: There is NO overarching strategy regarding TARP activity and that the primary challenge, troubled mortgages, has yet to be addressed. According to Prof Warren, 1 in 6 mortgages will be in foreclosure, shortly.

And today, Jamie Dimon went on CNBC and explained how JP Morgan/Chase did not need $25B of TARP funds but would not be writing down mortgage principal. Of course, he sees future losses with WaMu's portfolio (which they recently acquired) but they won't be the first to blink.

It's pretty clear that TARP has major shortcomings and having Prof Warren watchig over the banks is clearly the best news coming out of Washington in recent weeks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109701-the-case-for-making-bigger-cars?source=feed#comment-323936 323936 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 12:50:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109701-the-case-for-making-bigger-cars?source=feed#comment-323931 323931
All he's saying is that the income generated by the F series trucks is the key to Ford's financial health. Chevy and GMC trucks may be better built and outsell Fords but, unlike the F series, they do not generate enough income to offset many of GM's shortcomings.]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 12:46:40 -0500
All he's saying is that the income generated by the F series trucks is the key to Ford's financial health. Chevy and GMC trucks may be better built and outsell Fords but, unlike the F series, they do not generate enough income to offset many of GM's shortcomings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109701-the-case-for-making-bigger-cars?source=feed#comment-323909 323909 > but I'm going to take on your assertion that the F-150 is the best pick
> up on the market.

Where in the article did the author state this?]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 12:34:05 -0500 > but I'm going to take on your assertion that the F-150 is the best pick
> up on the market.

Where in the article did the author state this?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109613-are-we-seeing-housing-market-manipulation?source=feed#comment-323891 323891
The majority of people in a position to buy are first-time home owners. And how many of them have down payment money or outstanding credit scores? How much of a dent would they really make?

No the real answer is market forces: foreclosures, a MAJOR correction in real estate values and a long, slow recovery period. Given the recessionary economy and increasing unemployment, the chance we'll see a recovery in real estate before 2010 seems slim to none.]]> Mon, 08 Dec 2008 12:19:49 -0500
The majority of people in a position to buy are first-time home owners. And how many of them have down payment money or outstanding credit scores? How much of a dent would they really make?

No the real answer is market forces: foreclosures, a MAJOR correction in real estate values and a long, slow recovery period. Given the recessionary economy and increasing unemployment, the chance we'll see a recovery in real estate before 2010 seems slim to none.]]>