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2whiteroses

2whiteroses
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  • A HCM Strategy That Has Outperformed The S&P 500 By 300% TTM [View article]
    I think your performance chart understates ADP's performance over the past 12 months, doesn't it? CDK Global [CDK] was spun out from ADP in October and I don't think your chart takes that into account.... And to top it off, CDK is up over 50% since it was split out. ADP's the only one of your 5 I happen to own.
    Feb 22, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Significantly Transforming, Alleghany Remains An Attractive Long-Term Investment Opportunity - Position Yourself For After Year-End Results [View article]
    Alright, it's confession time, Deep. I read SA because I personally am unwilling to do the same amount of DD that guys like you do, so I thank you for your contributions. Sure I do some, and have my personal beliefs and theories, but overall, I am a lazy investor, and a psychotically conservative one to boot. So for all practical purposes, I do not have a large stake in any 1 security I have convinced myself to buy and I have chosen what I buy based primarily on long term track records of steady performance and basically conservative fundamental characteristics, though I have been known to take flyers on some wildly speculative ideas as well. Slow and steady always beats stop and go for me, even if the slow and steady's performance doesn't match the short term performance of the stop and go because I know myself well enough to know I will stop when I should go with a herky jerky performer. Having said that, prior SA articles grouped Y, MKL and WTM together as similar companies with similar track records with long term performance and investing approaches similar to Buffett, so I checked them all out with my typically fluffy DD procedures.... I found WTM seemed to be the steadiest performer of the 3 and that appealed to me even though it was not the best performer of the three. I also have a background in the muni bond industry where WTM has a presence (I was around when muni bond insurance was introduced in 1971 and worked with one of its creators) and ties to Hanover, NH, which WTM uses as a home United States, address, so I ended up investing in WTM over the other two... It's as simple as that...... I realize that's pretty lame rationale, certainly no reason to guide others to WTM vs. Y or MKL, but there you have it....
    Feb 18, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Significantly Transforming, Alleghany Remains An Attractive Long-Term Investment Opportunity - Position Yourself For After Year-End Results [View article]
    Oh sure, I mention MKL and WTM along with Y and naturally, I actually own the only one you don't like.... LOL. Seriously, I appreciate your taking the time for such a detailed response.... you've mentioned a couple of valuable points such as info from the 10q on interest rate sensitivity and the purposeful reduction in duration.... Thanks... I really should own all three, but right now, it seems as though MKL has reacted way too dramatically to its quarter's beat, so guess I'll have to wait to enter there....
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Significantly Transforming, Alleghany Remains An Attractive Long-Term Investment Opportunity - Position Yourself For After Year-End Results [View article]
    Thanks.... I've been following Y, MKL, and WTM closely, so your breakdown on Y has been very helpful.... One question, though: any look at Y's performance and rate of increasing book value even over the last 10 year period encompasses Y operating in a generally declining interest rate environment. It does seem as though the better bet on future direction for interest rates over the next ten years is for higher rates. With 14.8 bil in debt obligations, how much will rising interest rates negatively impact their book value growth potential? Granted, an increase of 1 percentage point increases interest rate income by 148 mill, but won't that come at the expense of ability to grow book value?
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVRs - The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
    Chris - What am I missing? You start by saying CVRs convey additional benefit if a specified event occurs. That would imply to me that your example of the Casa Ley CVR ought to detail some info as to the terms of the specified future event that needs to occur for the CVR to pay off as projected. Am I just a lousy reader not figuring out the details or did you not spell that out? Maybe it's moot because the CVR is not publicly traded? I know your GCVRZ articles were very specific about future events for future dates. I also would be curious as AlwaysLearning has asked as to where one can look for upcoming CVRs..
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stocks With A Pop [View article]
    Tack - More as a comment on me than you, I wish I believed I could sleep well at night with a collection of preferreds such as yours, but what I would really like to do is ask you, as an experienced high yield investor a question. Perhaps you can help. This may be a bit off topic, but since SA is such a great resource of expertise, I thought maybe I could open the door here. Recently I have been looking into what's described as "senior notes" for companies such as Triangle Capital Corp [TCAP]. As an example, their senior note issue is TCC. What these all have in common is they are described as "senior notes," but they are senior notes of holding companies. They are all described as unsecured but also unsubordinated, HOWEVER they are also described as structurally subordinated to all existing and future indebtedness and other obligations of any subsidiaries. So what I'm trying to figure out is, as a credit, what does one actually get when one buys a "senior note" of a holding company where all the assets are in the subs? You don't have any "senior notes" on your list, but as an experienced fixed income guy, maybe you can help. Another question for you, though, why have you shown DBLEP as one of your holdings? Quantumonline shows it as having changed to ESCRP ON 4/1/14.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Addressing The Abrupt Resignation Of Annaly Capital's Chief Portfolio Officer [View article]
    For the record, I exited NLY in October at 11.21 after having owned it for 12 years, so I did a similar calculation throughout my years of ownership just to keep my sanity.... My reason for exiting had more to do with an overall change in my own strategy than anything specific to NLY. Quite honestly, I couldn't figure out what the market was saying about it First it was penalized with the start of QE because of the increased competition in the market from the Feds and then it was penalized again when the market felt QE was going to end, the Fed was going to exit NLY's mkt and interest rates were to go up.... Didn't seem to make sense... How can they be penalized in both directions? So actually, there's probably opportunity being spelled out here somewhere, but I just decided to readjust my entire approach to risk, so I just bailed on a bunch of things, NLY included... I wish you luck and really have no opinion either way on NLY.
    Feb 4, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Addressing The Abrupt Resignation Of Annaly Capital's Chief Portfolio Officer [View article]
    Roy - Just doing a quick calculation, you've collected $9.14 in dividends over that same period of time, or approx 50% of your original investment. So even after taking into account the present share price of 10.47, have you really experienced losses? Ignoring taxes, hasn't NLY made you 8%? Granted that's far from thrilling over the time period, but it sure beats losses....
    Feb 3, 2015. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stocks With A Pop [View article]
    Ooops... I thought I was reading new comments.. yours obviously pre-dated the call date...... sorry
    Feb 3, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stocks With A Pop [View article]
    buffet - Is Quantumonline wrong? They have CWHN as having been called on 11/17/14.
    Feb 3, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial National Financial Corporation: A High-Quality Bank Selling At Discount Valuation [View article]
    Well, potential acquirers for one. Don't misunderstand, I'm not negatively commenting on the idea or the fundamentals, but having spent time reading histories of how individual bids are derived by acquiring companies' Boards and investment bankers' rationales when determining fair value for a bid, I know past stock performance is a definite consideration when establishing what price to pay... My completely inexperienced bet would be that when an acquirer comes acallin', and I don't disagree one will, the price offered will be substantially less than 31.80 because of past share price history and that 31.80 will not be reached unless more than one bidder shows up.... Having said that, I still love the idea and am doing more DD.... buyout or not, the author's argument stands on its own merit.
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial National Financial Corporation: A High-Quality Bank Selling At Discount Valuation [View article]
    Thanks for the article.... nothing better than under the radar stuff like this, but I do have one question: your acquisition price target of 31.80 is so far above historical trading range for this bank I would think an acquirer wouldn't think it necessary to pay anywhere near that price... It looks as though it's never traded above $29 in 19 years according to a quickie glance on Yahoo. Is there precedence for similar community bank acquisitions at such a large premium when shares have never been that high? It hit 28.82 once ten years ago and that seems to be the all time high.
    Jan 23, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mo' Money, Mo' Cash Deals With Attractive Spreads [View article]
    For the sake of accuracy TVE's coupon now is actually 3.955% NOT 3.995%. That means the 30 yr Treas. CMT must not exceed 3.115%, NOT 3.155% average for the week ending March 27 for TVE coupon to reset. My apologies.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mo' Money, Mo' Cash Deals With Attractive Spreads [View article]
    Chris - I'd be curious about your thoughts on an idea. What do you think the odds are of the 30 year Treasury's yield being higher by 70 basis points or more by March 27? If you think they're slim, then you can make a 7.50% annualized yield for an investment assumed to mature on 5/1/15. Tennessee Valley Authority, Reset Rate Series A PARRS, $25 Par Power Bonds due 5/1/2029 [TVE] currently have a 3.995% coupon, pay quarterly and trade flat, no accrued interest. If the 30 Yr Treas is less than 3.155% for the week ending March 27, the coupon rate will be reset to a lower rate equal to the then CMT for the 30 Year Treasury PLUS 84 basis points. If it does reset to a lower coupon, the owner has the right to put the bonds back to the TVA at the par of $25 on 5/1/15. Trading currently at $24 3/4, the owner is entitled to 2 quarterly payments of .2496 each plus the 25 cent appreciation achieved by putting the bond. If you don't put the bond, you will own a 15 year TVA bond repriced at an 84 basis point spread to the then current 30 year Treas. That's pretty darned wide and I'd expect the bond would have a good chance of naturally trading above par. Of course the risk is that it doesn't reset because the 30 yr Treas is higher than 3.155%. In that case, TVE remains as a 3.995% bond for at least the next year when the reset/put option comes into play again. If it doesn't reset, then today, you have bought a 15 year AAA/AA+ TVA bond, essentially considered a US Govt bond, at a spread of almost 200 basis points or about twice the yield of today's 15 year Treasury bond itself. That sounds pretty good to me... I think this opportunity is probably available primarily because it trades thinly, about 13k shares per day, with not enough volume for institutions to care .... Incidentally, there's also another TVA issue, [TVC], with similar characteristics with a tripoff date a month later and maturity 6/1/28, but I think TVE represents a better risk/reward situation for a short term play. Both bonds are non-callable.... Am I missing anything? More details at quantumonline.
    Jan 18, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We've Now Approached 'Stupid' Levels For Prospect Capital [View article]
    Can someone espouse a theory why BDCs as a group have been such poor performers recently? It seems to me that if the economy is supposedly gaining added traction on its own as I suppose is the prevailing theory, then shouldn't that benefit BDCs, not make them poorer investments? And aren't many of the loans they generate structured to be floating rate therefore providing BDCs as a good haven for rising interest rates? I don't profess to know anything about BDCs and am just beginning to learn, but it seems as though either the market's got it wrong on BDCs as a group or on the prospects for the overall economy. I own shares in a tiny little BDC, Saratoga Investment Corp [SAR] which reports tomorrow, but got to looking at Prospect via InCapital's listing of callable, NR/BBB "internotes" from Prospect looking to be underwritten as 4 3/4% due 7/15/20 with a one year call.
    Jan 13, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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