satyr

Torrent of Positive Developments for GPU Makers

Morningstar has it right, other than the divisions that have been sold off recently, such as wheels. They do not make semiconductors, nor have they ever.

Three Small Cap Stocks on the Verge of Breakouts

S&P upgraded ARM today to "buy", with a target of $11 on anticipated improved earnings for FY10. However, against a backdrop of today's falling market in last inning, the stock was only able to eke out a 1 cent gain. It did hit a new 52-week intraday high and I think the case can be made for further gains.

Cramer's Mad Money - It's All about Apple (10/16/09)

I don't know a thing about ARM Holdings. But, I do know that the symbol "ARM" is not theirs at all. It belongs to Arvinmeritor.

Trash Is King: Beware Being Late to the Party

All interesting. Of course, all of the "experts" have been telling us that the market is due for a tumble for about 6 months. Eventually, they will be right, and not one will mention how wrong they were leading up to that moment.

There is no doubt that there are some headwinds that should not be ignored, and no matter what the long term holds in store, there will be some down days in the markets. Maybe there will be a lot of them. But, keep in mind that there is still a lot of money sitting in cash accounts accumulating close to zero interest, and it appears that it is gradually being deployed into equities. Reasonable or not, this creates upward pressure on the markets.

Finally, if we are going to be intellectually honest about valuing equities, let's not talk in terms of percentages. How many stocks went up how many percent during what period of time is not relevant to anything other than historians. I don't remember this (or virtually) any self-appointed expert mentioning how many percent the market or individual stocks had lost heading into March of this year and posturing it as a reason why stocks absolutely had to go up. The idea 6 months ago was that stocks would go down, because that is what they had already done. Now, we are hearing that stocks will go down because that is not what they have done.

I do happen to know that most mutual funds have been lagging the S&P over the past 1/2 year. Why? Because they were betting against the individual investor. Now, they are hoping for a tumble so that they can save face, and many are trying to jawbone their way there. It's a tug of war, because the US government wants it quite the opposite, as do the governments of the G-20. If equity markets, currencies, and real estate values cannot be sustained at some reasonable level, no amount of stimulus or any other kind of intervention can salvage the world economies. Look for Ben, Tim, Barack, Govt. Sachs, and Warren to keep the messages positive until at least December.

15 Overvalued Small Caps from Russell 2000

Several of these are special situations. Applying formulas ignores fairly important company or industry dynamics that should be considered in each case. As an aside, some of the sector classifications are misleading.

26 Stocks on the Updated 'Phoenix' List

Interesting list and commentary. I fail to see, however, the relevance of McDonald's CEO's perspective on whether there are green shoots. The current state of the world economy and financial markets is not well measured by how many cheap hamburgers are being sold. Look to factory orders for durable goods, chemicals, construction, and the like if you want meaningful indicators. I am not one to get into the prediction game, because modern-day market action is more tied to psychology than it is to short-term fundamentals. That said, while a call for dip is always going to be accurate (eventually), I don't see a meaningful case around the notion of testing previous lows. Those were precipitated by panic selling and forced liquidations by funds. It would take a lot of bad news to create the same scenario.

Sputtering Auto Industry Chokes Suppliers - Barron's

As with so many articles, a little too broad brush for my taste. No doubt, some suppliers will go under, which will cause some disruption. The turmoil is going to ripple through for a long while

Keep in mind that many parts suppliers do more than make widgets for GM & Chrysler, and even go beyond passenger vehicles. They are taking a hit, too, due to a weak economy, but don't have all of their bets riding on what happens in Michigan.

In particular, I think the comment about companies whose stocks are trading under $5 being most at risk is irresponsible. What sort of analysis is that? Take a look at ARM, for example. Things would have to get much worse to drive them to the brink.

Buyer Beware: 30 Biggest Bankruptcy Risks

Looks like the same kind of CYA list that has been circulating for a few months. Few have bothered to do any follow up work to see if the situation has changed for any of these (which it has). Eh, why bother when it is easier to cut and paste? Ford has been cited by several here as a good example, and there are others. And then there is RAD, whose stock has DOUBLED since the doomsayers at Moody's came around. HIG is a similar story. No doubt, some of these companies will fail. But I would not necessarily go running with the lemmings if you want to make some money.