satyr

RIP: Retail Stores Closed in 2009

As mentioned by others, the figures are suspect. Are these gross closings, or net of openings? What about relocations? Closings can be a sign of trouble, or effective management that knows when it is time to move the store to a better part of town, abandon a dying region, or prune for growth. You have to be very careful how you interpret this data.

Intrinsic Value Investing: Recognizing Potentially Mispriced Stocks

Pretty charts, but not too meaningful in the real world. The fact that they indicate some companies to be worthless when they still have market caps that exceed $100's of millions is pretty good evidence of this.

15 Companies That Might Not Survive 2009

I agree that all of these companies are troubled. That said, just about every company not on the list is troubled, as well. In other words, one could compile just about any list and get agreement that there is agony on the horizon.

The Rite Aid case is rather interesting. They have about $6 billion in debt, which is a huge albatross at the moment. However, there are not any significant principal payments due for a couple of years. So, I have a hard time envisioning what could happen in 2009 to take them down the tubes. It certainly won't be for lack of sales, as they are currently hovering around flat. True, that is a sad state of affairs. But how many retailers would love to be even with last year right now?

think what we may see is some asset sales (e.g.: sale of about 1200 west coast stores). Depending on the mix, these could net anywhere between $1 and $6 million per store, effectively halving the corporate debt while only decreasing the base by 25%. Other possibilities include a capital infusion from Jean Coutu Group, which owns about 1/3 of the common shares. Or, we could see more of what CVS and Caremark created last year. ExpressScripts or Medco could pick up RAD and create some synergies.