andy93109

Semiconductors: Seeing the Light at the End of the Tunnel?

I've been in Semi for 15 yrs. I think I might offer some advice for investors here:

Stop worrying about BTB ratios being so low. The explanation isn't a 50% drop in demand! No recession could slow real chip demand to half. In late spring of 08' with demand slowing, manufacturers (cars, computer, aerospace, instruments, consumer electronics, etc.) looked at chip inventory and decided to reduce their exposure and stopped ordering from their supply chain for a quarter or so. The distributors then saw their orders drop and cut back orders to the Semi Mfgs. Each of the suppliers in the chain (mfg, distributor, OEM) reduced their pricing to move inventory and those two things together created the abysmal BTB ratio.

Within another quarter, the chip glut will have moved itself through the slow-but-not-dead chip sale supply chain and the whole thing will turn right back on. When it turns on, it will be fast too, because it hasn't been this artificially slow, ever. By the end of the year there will be irrational investor exuberance again...ahh.

Super Tankers and Super Volatile Oil Prices

It seems that removing tankers from service for storage is the a very effective way of removing supply to market. I am reminded of the electricity deregulation in California's 'spot' market. Several Power plants went offline for 'repair' (similar to production cuts but faster) but then the remaining plants had sufficient capacity to produce the state's required capacity however the power transmission lines those plants had access to did not have sufficient capacity to get the power into the state. The spot market spiked and the state lost billions.

How many tankers are there worldwide? Does 50mln bb represent a large number? 5% or more?

Crude's excursion above $50 was brief. Now -9.3% to $44.

Yes, I anticipated nicely the supply report and sold my OIL shares at 26 this morning. Should I buy back a bit now?

Government's Panicked Response to This Economic Crisis

Can someone explain the transition from deflation to hyperinflation? Somehow it seems you snap from one to the other via stimulus and low interest rates.