boisterousbob

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

On Nov 06 01:27 PM JamesApple wrote:
>
> What makes you think Apple cannot make a new iron clad
> secure corporate smartphone

Nothing. You completely missed the point. I didn't suggest AAPL "couldn't do this". I suggested that they are not trying to.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

I would have thought this list is testimony to AAPL's abject lack of interest in corporates so far. Kraft is the only notable large multinational that I see. Can you imagine what this list would look like for RIMM?

AAPL has no history of great success with corporates in any of its product lines. Maybe this is about to change, but I just don't see the focus on it.

iPhone is a nightmare to deploy in a corporate environment compared with a Blackberry. For a start you have to disable most of its features such as access to appStore, integration with non corporate email systems etc in order to make it safe enough to use. And, I'm sorry, what exactly IS an iphone without these features? Then you are missing features you need which are antiethical to AAPL, such as native ability to read MSFT format documents.

I am sure AAPL could crack this market, I just don't see them trying.


On Nov 06 09:09 AM pk de cville wrote:

> Here's the business argument for iPhone.
>
> Highly competitive creative businesses are using it in very innovative
> ways. How long will it take for testimonials like these to open the
> doors to large enterprise environments?
>
> www.apple.com/iphone/b...
>

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

We do see that VZ has positioned RIMM against other phones for some time. Of concern to me, though, is VZ seemingly positioning the new MOT phone as its new flagship product. If we believe marketing can make a difference, and as VZ is pouring money into Droid as its "biggest marketing campaign ever", then this has to concern RIMM stock holders.

Long RIMM and not bashing, but RIMM do rely on network operators to market their product and so I do have concerns in this area. Let's watch how splashy and successful this marketing campaign really is.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It's about time I added a thankyou thankyou thankyou for sharing your views with us - Brilliant!

Advance Q3 GDP: +3.5% vs. +3.2% consensus and prior -0.7% - the best growth in two years. GDP price index +0.8% vs. +1.3% consensus and prior flat.

Although you are thumbs down by other commentors I have to agree.

We are seeing cash for clunkers annualized, as well as the homebuyers tax credit. Clunkers is done and with rates inching up and mortgage applications falling off a cliff, maybe homebuyers tax credit is done too.

Backing out the effect of these two programs leaves this Q GDP probably closer to 1%.

I agree your comments on employment as well, sustainable GDP growth is going to be very difficult with no sign in sight YET of a notable upturn.

While we can expect to rally off the back of these numbers, backing out these programs from next Q and assuming the employment picture doesn't change, the early estimates for NEXT quarters GDP could be a nasty reality check.


>"Not truly "the best growth in two years". Eliminate cost cutting and
>"tax dollars for clunkers" and you've got a very dire situation.
> Oh, and more ugly unemployment data just came out as well.
> I trust no market pump off any of this "smoke-n-mirror" GDP data. "

How Hard Is It to Transfer Credit Card Debt?

That depends on who has increased rates. If they have increased rates correctly for those customers who were ultimately going to default anyway, then they will drive some of them to other banks.

So I would suggest it depends on how successfully the rate increases have been targetted.


On Oct 27 09:51 AM Smalltownbanker wrote:

> Good customers go away, those who are struggling now can't move and
> will now default. Citi loses, customer loses. Taxpayer loses because
> we bailed out these morons.

How Hard Is It to Transfer Credit Card Debt?

They are following amex who did this 12 months ago. Amex even paid some customers to successfully close their accounts.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

I have to endorse this comment wholeheartedly.

I did enjoy this article, but if the models used are hopeless at predicting the share price of AAPL (which I think they are) then the author should discover and acknowledge this, even privately.


On Oct 25 01:22 PM Mikael wrote:

> First of all, thanks for a fun to read article. I have some questions
> and thoughts.
>
> Over the last 5-10 years, when would your models have told you to
> buy and sell Apple? Could you add some charts for that?
>
> You see, I would like to see if any of the models you use in your
> article can predict the Apple stockprice with any accuracy (greater
> than 50% of the time). Only then will you know if you can actually
> rely on any of them. Same thing goes for Cramer's model. When during
> the last 5-10 years did it predict when to buy or sell AAPL correctly?
>
>
> Throwing numbers around is like you said: entertainment or a commercial.
> And that's why I really would like to see you go the extra mile on
> this one, to figure out which model would have made the most money
> predicting Apple's stock price.

Research in Motion: A Long-Term Play

One further item to muse on LaChic

"Gross margin for the second quarter was 44.1%, in line with the guidance we provided in April and higher than the 43.6% in the first quarter [due to reductions in raw material costs] as well as the shifts in the product mix, as we discussed in the last earnings call."

Research in Motion: A Long-Term Play

LaChic, do you have any information on who is paying for those phones? I would question whether this should be a hit on RIMM or a hit on the network operator? Maybe this is a reason to be a little shy on purchasing Verizon stock.....

Q2 Average selling price was $357
Q3 Average selling price was $345
Q4 projected selling price is $320

While this is clearly trending down, it is to be expected given the push into consumer space, and is not really the sort of price collapse implied by a buy 1 get two free promotion?

Congratulations on your near term exit price btw.


On Oct 26 08:11 AM LaChic wrote:

> when a company is practically giving away their phones that cannot
> be a good sign for now....I sold a while back, part of my research
> on a stock is visiting stores and asking questions.....buy 1 get
> two free, told me to get out of the stock, so I did at 80.75...I
> have no plans on getting back in until i see a correction in this
> market.

A Dow Double in 10 years? Easy

Inflation will help the dow doubling case. Stocks are commodities priced in dollars. If the value of a dollar falls (inflation) the price of a stock expressed in dollars will go up more quickly.


On Oct 07 02:13 PM Larry House wrote:

> It may sound easy enough, but don't underestimate the long-term economic
> problems we face. Other "experts" who manage billions of dollars
> are predicting growth of 1-3% for the next few years--a good-sized
> chunk of the 10 years. Beyond that, we may face high inflation.
> On top of all, we have growing budget deficits. Stocks will have
> a hard time averaging 7.2% per year with that backdrop. I hope it
> happens, but I don't expect it.

On Goldman and CIT: No Free Lunches

"The article is about risk concentration so whether the CDS is a hedge or not, there is still a counterparty on the other side of the transaction. 5 banks hold 97% of the notional value of derivatives"

Good point!

Just as there is very little transparency in price discovery, the clearing arrangements are totally opaque and net off potential is completely masked. How do you know the 5 banks with 97% notional aren't individually net flat? I'm sorry if you think this is a ridiculous question, but it has to be asked.

On Goldman and CIT: No Free Lunches

"everyone that dealt with them was overcollaterized and thrice hedged, who the hell is the last guy in line ultimately responsible for payment if and when CIT goes bust?"

Out of interest, why does there have to be a last guy? Couldn't there be 50 or 100 institutions collectively on the hook for this?

The meltdown scenario is interesting, but I would think the impact has to depend on the shape of the interconnections? Sure, if bank A guarantees CIT 100% and bank B guarantees bank A 100% there will be a quick domino. But if this quickly resolves into the entire market being on the hook, then what's another $30 billion?

Microsoft: Can the Zune HD Take Down the King?

Not wishing to be anti AAPL I am long the stock, but I do think this Zune does something iphone/touch don't even try.

I will leave aside the irrelevance of HD media on a 3.5" screen, you REALLY can't see the content any better because of HD on a screen that small.

My iphone/touch (yes I own both) will not play 90% of the media in my library without conversion which is time consuming and error prone. This is part of AAPL's intention to fully control the user experience, by only natively supporting formats they are comfortable with. It is also in my view a serious drawback that prevents me from using the devices more fully.

If MSFT do the job properly with Zune, it will be trivial to get it to play anything in my library and I will then have the option to watch the same media on my windows PC, my television via XBox, or take it with me to watch on the Zune.

With its closed formats and tightly controlled environment, AAPL isn't even trying to provide me this convenience with iphone/touch.

While recognising the success and power of iTunes, I think there is room in the market for portable media players that simpy just play the darned media.

United States Natural Gas Fund: A Contrarian Perspective

A lot of people seem to need that warning even if you don't, because many people are surprised and dissappointed to lose money with this fund when gas doesn't move, or even rises a few
per cent.

Added missing word "rises".

On Sep 15 08:58 AM boisterousbob wrote:

> Apppro, I think you miss the point. Well maybe you don't need the
> warning but plenty of other people do. It isn't the fact that you
> aren't buying actual gas that is the issue. It is the monthly roll
> cost of a fund based on futures which show a deep contango. It would
> not be unreasonable for this fund to lose 10% a month if the price
> of gas does not move at all. A lot of people seem to need that warning
> even if you don't, because many people are surprised and dissappointed
> to lose money with this fund when gas doesn't move, or even a few
> per cent.