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  • What's The Story With BlackBerry's Licensing Revenue? [View article]
    Yes but the FCF is small and frankly still disputable whether it's currently just positive or just negative on a recurring basis. So you are really paying just for the option.

    The option is that software will really take off and it might, but so far it hasn't.

    The option is that hardware might somehow rebound, but so far it hasn't.

    The option is that licensing might continue to show revenues, but how could we possibly know?

    Is this a gamble or an investment?

    I for one am still trying to decide.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's The Story With BlackBerry's Licensing Revenue? [View article]
    Excellent comment. I suppose on corporate budgets we might see some uplift in Q3 as people race to spend the money they were given in 2015 or have it taken off them for 2016 because "they didn't spend it so they clearly didn't need it".

    I think this means if we don't see significant uptick from 20% yoy software growth in the next 1-2Q then this company is dead with the current strategy.

    Chen has worked wonders in the past but there are some battles that just cannot be won.
    Jun 26, 2015. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's The Story With BlackBerry's Licensing Revenue? [View article]
    For me the take away remains the same. Software is the new strategy and growth so far is anaemic.

    I think we need to see a lot more from software or a rebound in hardware.

    Neither have been forecast from CEO who is not frightened of making bullish statements when he can.

    The ongoing performance of IP is too uncertain to name into an opinion on my view.

    I don't know whether this is a hold or a sell. I cannot see it as accumulate at this point.
    Jun 26, 2015. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Keeps Hope Alive [View article]
    I have to agree this was a poor report. $600MM software became $500MM ($100MM of BBM which apparently isn't software any more), and then all of a sudden patents are "software" and a one time deal or two comes to the rescue.

    Not being able to answer the revenue contribution of core software (BES12) on the conference call? Absolutely shocking. I don't think I have ever listened to a call where the CEO and CFO can't talk to the basic numbers around a core element of their strategy.

    Chen sounds shaken and might have met his match with this one.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Bulls Still Don't Get It [View article]
    I tried this. Nobody remembered what a Pinto was.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Latest Device Is A Samsung Tablet [View article]
    I just don't understand the market for this product.

    I work for a large corporate. I have a blackberry phone. It is secure. They also give me a laptop which I can use on the road to work and have access to all corporate facilities. It is fully secure, and gives me access to everything. It also doubles as my desktop when I am working in the office, I put it on a docking station. I can do everything on it, not just the many but fewer things I could do on a tablet.

    If they gave me a $2,380 tablet, it couldn't replace my phone or my laptop, so this is a pure new cost. If they replaced my laptop with a tablet I would then need a new office desktop PC. They will never pay for it, it serves no purpose.

    I suppose they could give it to just the top 200-300 people, but given the cost of conformance testing and integration work with the existing infrastructure, each one would then cost perhaps $50,000 to $100,000. I still don't see this as attractive.

    I just don't see the market they are going after.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Surging Dollar May Take A Bite Out Of Apple's Earnings [View article]
    I don't see the fuss. It is very easy for even the simplest of derivative hedging strategies to provide good focus, low cost, and hugely inflated and totally irrelevant notional flows.

    Just think about something as simple as a series of horizontal and vertical option spreads over multiple timeframes.

    The hedging strategy isn't necessarily expected to be profitable.

    The 10K doesn't give you nearly enough information to know what is really going on and the most obvious explanations are benign.

    I would suggest relaxing on this one.
    Jan 23, 2015. 06:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And UnionPay: A Marriage Not Made In Heaven, Part II [View article]
    I don't think either the author or most commentors on this article seem to understand that much about China.

    For the most part Chinese individuals do not use cards and Chinese merchants do not accept them.

    The one area of society that does use cards more than the rest is the demographic served by Apple.
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Apple Pay [View article]
    The idea that AAPL would become a bank is pretty far fetched.

    It's like saying "iTunes works really well, let's become a record label"

    Banking brings onerous regulatory and legislative pressures that would transform the culture at AAPL, driving out creativity in a company that thrives on it.

    Opening a bank would deeply encourage the 500 other banks who signed up to support AAPL pay to withdraw from the service.

    I can think of little worse than AAPL opening a bank. It would harm the pay product considerably and could even destroy the company.

    The biggest problem pay faces is with motivating merchants to lose contact with their customers, and I would see apple developing an answer to this by offering a secure anonymised loyalty mechanism.
    Nov 8, 2014. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising My Apple PT To $131 From $120 On The Back Of Strong Outlook [View article]
    The AAPL calls are down because the earnings are out and so the uncertainty is reduced and so the option premium is reduced.

    This isn't a corrupt market, it's basic how options are priced 101.
    Oct 21, 2014. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Play On Apple Pay [View article]
    His point is he doesn't think they should open a bank as they don't know the first thing about running a bank, and running a bank has nothing to do with designing fashionable digital accessories.
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Play On Apple Pay [View article]
    Nice article, kudos to the author.

    So nice to see an analysis that doesn't have the premise "nothing will change and therefore everything will stay the same and therefore the most they can make is X"

    May I suggest a halfway house before AAPL launches a bank - a JV or co-branded credit account possibly with AMEX.

    This would have the following benefits for the issuing bank
    - first choice position in the iPhone for apple pay purchases
    - virtual elimination of fraud costs
    - no need for a physical credit card removing those costs
    - no need to go to the expense of offering paper statements
    - access to a client base with superior income and spend profile

    For AAPL this would have the following benefits
    - access to more of the available fees
    - ability to incentivise account holders for further apple purchases
    - not seen as a competitor to other parts of the banking chain

    Just a thought, thanks for the article.
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Collect Fees On Apple Payments, Back Of The Napkin: Could Add Billions To Bottom Line [View article]
    I think this is the most insightful comment on here. The cost savings for the banks could easily outweigh the transaction fees being discussed here.

    Maybe ultimately some of the issuers could start to issue Apple Pay only accounts. No need for pesky plastic. No physical mailed statements. No Fraud. Customers presenting a lower risk of delinquency. What's not to love?

    Possibly not in the next couple quarters though :)
    Sep 10, 2014. 10:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay: The Only Wallet With Potential To Gain Widespread Adoption [View article]
    "Also Apple's current market share is 40% in the US and about 10% or less worldwide."

    That's true and I like the thought process but think it can be expanded.

    Business Insider in January (sorry I don't know how to put links) quotes IBM and other sources that US holiday purchases on iOS averaged $80 versus $40 on Android. If that holds through, US merchants could be cutting themselves off from 40% of spend by not accepting Apple Pay.

    It might even be more extreme in other parts of the world. I posit that in China the average iOS user may have 5x the disposable income of the average Android user. If we believe IDC's smartphone market share for Apple at about 10%, merchants without Apple could be refusing 50% of spend.

    While the numbers can of course be disputed, I hope you will agree with me the principle that counting the size of wallet can be more helpful than counting potentially empty wallets.
    Sep 10, 2014. 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 Market Impacts [View article]
    Agreed a 64 bit processor is like a car limited to 155mph, to most people completely irrelevant.

    I am impressed with the announcements, but there are many open questions. Will an iWatch compete with established watches as a fashion statement. How important is fashion versus wizardry. Will iPayments be more successful than all the competing offerings that frankly do the same thing. Touch payment is long established in Europe. Do they really benefit from an iPhone offering? Do we?

    Lot's of announcements and progress, but as many questions as answers. Long AAPL stock for the next quarter, but beyond is TBD. Fingers crossed.
    Sep 9, 2014. 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment