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  • The Long Play On Apple Pay [View article]
    His point is he doesn't think they should open a bank as they don't know the first thing about running a bank, and running a bank has nothing to do with designing fashionable digital accessories.
    Sep 21 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Play On Apple Pay [View article]
    Nice article, kudos to the author.

    So nice to see an analysis that doesn't have the premise "nothing will change and therefore everything will stay the same and therefore the most they can make is X"

    May I suggest a halfway house before AAPL launches a bank - a JV or co-branded credit account possibly with AMEX.

    This would have the following benefits for the issuing bank
    - first choice position in the iPhone for apple pay purchases
    - virtual elimination of fraud costs
    - no need for a physical credit card removing those costs
    - no need to go to the expense of offering paper statements
    - access to a client base with superior income and spend profile

    For AAPL this would have the following benefits
    - access to more of the available fees
    - ability to incentivise account holders for further apple purchases
    - not seen as a competitor to other parts of the banking chain

    Just a thought, thanks for the article.
    Sep 16 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Collect Fees On Apple Payments, Back Of The Napkin: Could Add Billions To Bottom Line [View article]
    I think this is the most insightful comment on here. The cost savings for the banks could easily outweigh the transaction fees being discussed here.

    Maybe ultimately some of the issuers could start to issue Apple Pay only accounts. No need for pesky plastic. No physical mailed statements. No Fraud. Customers presenting a lower risk of delinquency. What's not to love?

    Possibly not in the next couple quarters though :)
    Sep 10 10:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay: The Only Wallet With Potential To Gain Widespread Adoption [View article]
    "Also Apple's current market share is 40% in the US and about 10% or less worldwide."

    That's true and I like the thought process but think it can be expanded.

    Business Insider in January (sorry I don't know how to put links) quotes IBM and other sources that US holiday purchases on iOS averaged $80 versus $40 on Android. If that holds through, US merchants could be cutting themselves off from 40% of spend by not accepting Apple Pay.

    It might even be more extreme in other parts of the world. I posit that in China the average iOS user may have 5x the disposable income of the average Android user. If we believe IDC's smartphone market share for Apple at about 10%, merchants without Apple could be refusing 50% of spend.

    While the numbers can of course be disputed, I hope you will agree with me the principle that counting the size of wallet can be more helpful than counting potentially empty wallets.
    Sep 10 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 Market Impacts [View article]
    Agreed a 64 bit processor is like a car limited to 155mph, to most people completely irrelevant.

    I am impressed with the announcements, but there are many open questions. Will an iWatch compete with established watches as a fashion statement. How important is fashion versus wizardry. Will iPayments be more successful than all the competing offerings that frankly do the same thing. Touch payment is long established in Europe. Do they really benefit from an iPhone offering? Do we?

    Lot's of announcements and progress, but as many questions as answers. Long AAPL stock for the next quarter, but beyond is TBD. Fingers crossed.
    Sep 9 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Market Share: Slip, Slipping Away [View article]
    @User 26717943

    I will be careful to use sarcasm font more explicitly next time.

    I was trying to point out that as the author only uses one dimension to assess this company, his assessment is of very limited value.
    Jul 11 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Will Push Apple To $105 By Year-End [View article]
    This is a shame for the bulls. There is nothing better than a large short interest to present opportunity for the shorts to capitulate. A low short interest is at best neutral or not bullish.

    As an AAPL long and experienced trader I would be much happier with a really large short interest....
    Jul 11 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could A Bear Market Kickstart Apple? [View article]
    yes seriously. The things you mentioned were iterations. They may yet prove to be hugely important iterations when the big new invention that uses them is finally revealed....
    Jul 5 08:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Biggest Threat - Declining Prices Of Computing Devices [View article]
    I love the article but as usual it is only half or one third of a story. It really isn't relevant to talk about ASP's without talking about cost of production and margins. Are we supposed to assume the MAC is unprofitable because it is 5 times cheaper than it was 30 years ago? Everyone is taking a bath because purchase price is lower but cost to produce is the same?

    *Please* combine an article on ASP's with coverage of cost of production and margin. Please compare AAPL's ability to manage cost and preserve pricing power versus the competition.

    THEN we will have really an article.
    Jun 29 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Market Share: Slip, Slipping Away [View article]
    There is only one metric to measure a company and it is market share. No other metrics matter. They don't even really exist.

    When choosing a "market" one can choose any market that suits the argument, and having chosen it the argument is automatically compelling.

    The metric is market share and the market is things that people buy when they want something oblong that lights up in the dark. Therefore AAPL is doomed.

    I hope I just saved someone from reading 57 paragraphs and 23 graphs in the article.
    Jun 23 10:33 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Q2 Review And Q3 Outlook [View article]
    It's in there. Open the link. Look for the second link "download" top right-ish on the web page.

    Click this link which opens a PDF which contains the content described by Mr. Blair, including the 17% yoy revenue drop in Rest of Asia Pacific.
    Apr 26 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Q2 Review And Q3 Outlook [View article]
    There are a limited number of stocks that are very poor candidates for shorting calls on and AAPL is one of them. The risk adjusted premium in the calls is demonstrably far too low due to the distribution of the realised vol spikes and put/call parity constraints.

    Numerous tomes on option pricing cover this ground well.

    I hope you make your loss back very quickly and may your other trades all be profitable.
    Apr 25 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple's Stock Split Impact Its Shareholders? [View article]
    Maybe it just means they have a new CFO who wants to make a splash?
    Apr 25 06:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple's Stock Split Impact Its Shareholders? [View article]

    Beta is supposed to tell us about the stock's response to general market volatility, but how much is beta expected to tell us about response to an individual quarterly earnings report which is clearly distinct from the general market?

    AAPL moved $40 this report which in the context of a quarterly calculation taken over 60 trading days represents a daily move of $0.67 which is just 0.13% of the $530 or so it was trading at prior - is this so astronomical?

    There are some papers floating around on Earnings Response Coefficient for this stock but they definitely look too dense for inclusion here.
    Apr 25 06:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Best, Apple Is Trading At Fair Value [View article]

    I found the article informative and introduced new elements for me. I liked the statistical distribution of P/E (although I find the secondary peak at 10.75 an alarming counterpoint to the one at 12.25 especially in the second graph!)

    You got some good rational comments too!

    Thankyou again for writing
    Mar 23 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment