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  • At Best, Apple Is Trading At Fair Value [View article]

    I found the article informative and introduced new elements for me. I liked the statistical distribution of P/E (although I find the secondary peak at 10.75 an alarming counterpoint to the one at 12.25 especially in the second graph!)

    You got some good rational comments too!

    Thankyou again for writing
    Mar 23 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow Up: Will Apple Ever Reach $700 Again? [View article]
    "$1.4 trillion is needed to fund all the purchases over a 12-month period"

    I don't think the author understands the mechanics of how price discovery takes place on an exchange. If AAPL needed to spend $1.4 trillion over a 12 month period to hold $500, it implies that every single participant (on both sides of each trade) is actually a committed seller at any price over $500. This can't be the case or the stock would definitely be trading under $500. It isn't.

    As others have pointed out, to spend more than its market cap AAPL would also have to issue new shares at $500 in order to buy them back for less.

    To make an equally absurd argument in the other direction, let me point out that on friday I saw AAPL's price increase $0.15 when somebody bought 10 shares for $5,300. Assuming this rate continues and AAPL spend $20 billion on buy backs, AAPL's share price should increase to approximately $566567.74.

    While I would love this to happen for all the longs, unfortunately it is simply an analysis that is equally absurd and simplistic as the one in the article.
    Mar 23 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Introduces Cheaper iPhone 5C Targeting LTE Growth In International Markets [View article]
    @yawn @ Michael Blair - I am right so everything that happens supports my hypothesis yawn

    A bazillion phone users who, you know, IM and browse the web and use simple apps and store a modest number of photo's couldn't give a damn about the difference between 8GB and 16GB

    And another bazillion users who use cloud storage and couldn't give a damn about the difference between 8GB and 16GB, I suppose they don't exist either.

    None of these users exist because that doesn't support your thesis, and something as simple and boring as giving consumers a choice they didn't have before is clearly negative in any plausible interpretation.....
    Mar 20 11:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Struggles In China, But New Product Could Bring Added Growth Domestically [View article]
    "revenue continues to grow"

    Revenue does not continue to grow. Can you please look at AAPL's own forecasts for next Q versus same Q last year.

    If you are going to share a long impassioned rant, can you at least please get your basic simple facts straight.

    For most people all high end smartphones *are* the same. My LG G2 lets me browse the web, install common apps, use GPS navigation and make phone calls. This is what most people use most smartphones for. For most of the people most of the time, my LG is functionally identical to an iPhone5S except it has a bigger screen, much longer battery life and lower price.

    I am long AAPL and love the company, but without new product segments, they do have a problem.
    Mar 8 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For A Dividend Raise [View article]
    I must admit I too wonder if they could list on a few more bourses and pay local dividends out of local cash. Tokyo and London could be good places to start.

    FWIW I think the daily chart is painting a highly positive picture at the moment, main pivot bounce, inverted head and shoulders pattern, support from EMA50 and stochastics rolling up in multiple timeframes. This points to an exciting "announcement" coming soon, with "news" that should propel the stock up to 580-583.
    Mar 5 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Building A Mobile Payments Platform To Rival PayPal [View article]
    It takes 9 months to make a baby no matter how much money you spend
    Feb 28 06:53 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Inventory: The Sum Of All Fears [View article]
    It's curious how these articles start with a premise and then attempt to prove it.

    It would be very interesting to see a balanced perspective.

    For example, what is the balance of likelihood a build up in inventory represents preparation for a more carriers, new carriers, a new product category launch versus the negatives that they are losing control of their supply chain.

    It would be nice to see authors interpret the facts in a range of meaningful ways, rather than fit them to their pre-established premise...
    Feb 25 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Mobile Payments: Part II [View article]

    Processor's don't make much more today.

    Why will they make "much more money" as a processor than existing processor's do?

    Note please I didn't ask whether their solution is superior. I asked how it will command a greater fee. Not the same question...
    Feb 25 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Net Income Growth Is The Name Of The Game [View article]
    An earlier article gave a well reasoned rationale that mobile payments could increase net income over time by up to 12.5%.

    Frankly if this is fair assessment - and it seemed rational - mobile payments are far more interesting from a user perspective than a share price perspective. Maybe multiple expansion can help if the market perceives greater impact than this forecast, or sees it as a sign of renewed innovation.
    Feb 24 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Mobile Payments: Part II [View article]
    Yes. It's very clever. We want to use it. Now, how do AAPL get paid?

    Can they charge 0.5-1% on every purchase they uncovered this way for the retailer?
    Feb 24 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Mobile Payments: Part II [View article]
    Great article.

    The product sounds really exciting.

    12.5% on net income sounds quite boring.

    Not convinced if this is one of the new great things, that this is highly constructive for the share price....
    Feb 21 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Buyback: Here Come The Critics [View article]
    I disagree that R&D spend should grow at a fixed rate to the company. It should grow at the maximum rate that dollars invested still increase worthwhile output.
    Innovation is a creative enterprise and the relationship between invested dollars and output is very complex.
    Alicia Keys is hugely successful. Should she hire songwriters to write songs for her to increase output? If she does so will she produce more songs, or fewer? The answer is we don't know. If they write songs her audience will like then great. If not she is wasting time supervising them and spending less time writing her own songs. Her output goes down. Worst case they interfere with her creative process so much that the quality of her own song writing goes down as well. Could be lose lose and output could plummet.
    Feb 10 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Buyback: Here Come The Critics [View article]
    I agree with this. At risk of repetition, author misses another feature in R&D spending that increasing it too quickly has a significant negative effect on value of the R&D. Spending more too quickly can very easily produce lower actual total results.

    If you are told to spend money now and spend it wisely or you will be fired, even the most competent can only usually guarantee the first part.

    Very few brains in a company like AAPL actually filter the right macro level investments, and it has to be so to produce a cohesive output and anyway the world only has so many hugely talented innovators. If you tax this limited leadership with poor investments they are more likely be distracted and to mess up the strong ones.

    Anyone who has actually run an R&D shop knows that too much money can be more dangerous than too little.
    Feb 10 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can't Fix Its Biggest Problem [View article]
    I must confess I read this the other way. They got supply and demand in balance surely means they are able to make as many as they can sell.

    This seems consistent with rev guidance next Q. There doesn't seem to be any significant pent up unmet demand for iPhone in the guidance, does there?
    Feb 5 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can't Fix Its Biggest Problem [View article]
    @David beach

    I read a lot of comments aapl should spend more on R&D - not convinced this is clearcut at all though

    Innovation is a creative activity and there is a very complex relationship between how much you spend and how much you get. It is quite easy to drive up R&D spend quickly and reduce useful output as a result. Counterintuitive that you can spend more and get less, but true.

    I agree that we need AAPL to get their R&D spend right, but what we need most of all is for them to identify the right things to invest in before they do it.
    Feb 5 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment