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  • Apple Market Share: Slip, Slipping Away [View article]
    @User 26717943

    I will be careful to use sarcasm font more explicitly next time.

    I was trying to point out that as the author only uses one dimension to assess this company, his assessment is of very limited value.
    Jul 11 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Will Push Apple To $105 By Year-End [View article]
    This is a shame for the bulls. There is nothing better than a large short interest to present opportunity for the shorts to capitulate. A low short interest is at best neutral or not bullish.

    As an AAPL long and experienced trader I would be much happier with a really large short interest....
    Jul 11 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could A Bear Market Kickstart Apple? [View article]
    yes seriously. The things you mentioned were iterations. They may yet prove to be hugely important iterations when the big new invention that uses them is finally revealed....
    Jul 5 08:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Biggest Threat - Declining Prices Of Computing Devices [View article]
    I love the article but as usual it is only half or one third of a story. It really isn't relevant to talk about ASP's without talking about cost of production and margins. Are we supposed to assume the MAC is unprofitable because it is 5 times cheaper than it was 30 years ago? Everyone is taking a bath because purchase price is lower but cost to produce is the same?

    *Please* combine an article on ASP's with coverage of cost of production and margin. Please compare AAPL's ability to manage cost and preserve pricing power versus the competition.

    THEN we will have really an article.
    Jun 29 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Market Share: Slip, Slipping Away [View article]
    There is only one metric to measure a company and it is market share. No other metrics matter. They don't even really exist.

    When choosing a "market" one can choose any market that suits the argument, and having chosen it the argument is automatically compelling.

    The metric is market share and the market is things that people buy when they want something oblong that lights up in the dark. Therefore AAPL is doomed.

    I hope I just saved someone from reading 57 paragraphs and 23 graphs in the article.
    Jun 23 10:33 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Q2 Review And Q3 Outlook [View article]
    It's in there. Open the link. Look for the second link "download" top right-ish on the web page.

    Click this link which opens a PDF which contains the content described by Mr. Blair, including the 17% yoy revenue drop in Rest of Asia Pacific.
    Apr 26 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Q2 Review And Q3 Outlook [View article]
    There are a limited number of stocks that are very poor candidates for shorting calls on and AAPL is one of them. The risk adjusted premium in the calls is demonstrably far too low due to the distribution of the realised vol spikes and put/call parity constraints.

    Numerous tomes on option pricing cover this ground well.

    I hope you make your loss back very quickly and may your other trades all be profitable.
    Apr 25 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple's Stock Split Impact Its Shareholders? [View article]
    Maybe it just means they have a new CFO who wants to make a splash?
    Apr 25 06:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple's Stock Split Impact Its Shareholders? [View article]

    Beta is supposed to tell us about the stock's response to general market volatility, but how much is beta expected to tell us about response to an individual quarterly earnings report which is clearly distinct from the general market?

    AAPL moved $40 this report which in the context of a quarterly calculation taken over 60 trading days represents a daily move of $0.67 which is just 0.13% of the $530 or so it was trading at prior - is this so astronomical?

    There are some papers floating around on Earnings Response Coefficient for this stock but they definitely look too dense for inclusion here.
    Apr 25 06:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Best, Apple Is Trading At Fair Value [View article]

    I found the article informative and introduced new elements for me. I liked the statistical distribution of P/E (although I find the secondary peak at 10.75 an alarming counterpoint to the one at 12.25 especially in the second graph!)

    You got some good rational comments too!

    Thankyou again for writing
    Mar 23 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow Up: Will Apple Ever Reach $700 Again? [View article]
    "$1.4 trillion is needed to fund all the purchases over a 12-month period"

    I don't think the author understands the mechanics of how price discovery takes place on an exchange. If AAPL needed to spend $1.4 trillion over a 12 month period to hold $500, it implies that every single participant (on both sides of each trade) is actually a committed seller at any price over $500. This can't be the case or the stock would definitely be trading under $500. It isn't.

    As others have pointed out, to spend more than its market cap AAPL would also have to issue new shares at $500 in order to buy them back for less.

    To make an equally absurd argument in the other direction, let me point out that on friday I saw AAPL's price increase $0.15 when somebody bought 10 shares for $5,300. Assuming this rate continues and AAPL spend $20 billion on buy backs, AAPL's share price should increase to approximately $566567.74.

    While I would love this to happen for all the longs, unfortunately it is simply an analysis that is equally absurd and simplistic as the one in the article.
    Mar 23 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Introduces Cheaper iPhone 5C Targeting LTE Growth In International Markets [View article]
    @yawn @ Michael Blair - I am right so everything that happens supports my hypothesis yawn

    A bazillion phone users who, you know, IM and browse the web and use simple apps and store a modest number of photo's couldn't give a damn about the difference between 8GB and 16GB

    And another bazillion users who use cloud storage and couldn't give a damn about the difference between 8GB and 16GB, I suppose they don't exist either.

    None of these users exist because that doesn't support your thesis, and something as simple and boring as giving consumers a choice they didn't have before is clearly negative in any plausible interpretation.....
    Mar 20 11:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Struggles In China, But New Product Could Bring Added Growth Domestically [View article]
    "revenue continues to grow"

    Revenue does not continue to grow. Can you please look at AAPL's own forecasts for next Q versus same Q last year.

    If you are going to share a long impassioned rant, can you at least please get your basic simple facts straight.

    For most people all high end smartphones *are* the same. My LG G2 lets me browse the web, install common apps, use GPS navigation and make phone calls. This is what most people use most smartphones for. For most of the people most of the time, my LG is functionally identical to an iPhone5S except it has a bigger screen, much longer battery life and lower price.

    I am long AAPL and love the company, but without new product segments, they do have a problem.
    Mar 8 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For A Dividend Raise [View article]
    I must admit I too wonder if they could list on a few more bourses and pay local dividends out of local cash. Tokyo and London could be good places to start.

    FWIW I think the daily chart is painting a highly positive picture at the moment, main pivot bounce, inverted head and shoulders pattern, support from EMA50 and stochastics rolling up in multiple timeframes. This points to an exciting "announcement" coming soon, with "news" that should propel the stock up to 580-583.
    Mar 5 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Building A Mobile Payments Platform To Rival PayPal [View article]
    It takes 9 months to make a baby no matter how much money you spend
    Feb 28 06:53 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment