boisterousbob

Bye, Bye iPhone - Not So Fast!

I can only agree with the author, as a long time iphone user I have to say that while it totally rocks as a highly portable computer and entertainment centre, it really is very average as a telephone, and that's being kind to it.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

You completely miss the point. There is absolutely no need to go to all the trouble and expense of actually producing oil, in order to benefit from the schemes the author outlines.


On Nov 19 03:47 PM GhostOfSpec wrote:

> There is a bit of paranoia going on here. If oil prices really were
> massively manipulated to much higher than they "should" be then new
> companies would enter the market, produce oil, and collect big profits.
> Granted, this takes time but it would happen.
>
> The oil markets do have strange nonlinearities. However, as the
> first post pointed out, oil prices will continue to go up, up, and
> up in the long term since there is a finite quantity of oil and the
> demand for oil increases almost every year. (Oil demand has dropped
> but that is only because of massive recession and an oil price that
> hit $140/barrel).
>
> Most of the easy to extract oil has been found and is being pumped
> out. Newer oil discoveries tend to cost much more to extract since
> they are deep underwater or in difficult forms such as tar sands.
>
>
> So, a paranoid conspiracy theory cannot account for high oil prices.
> It can merely account for temporary bubbles & nonlinearities.

Playing the Options Game in RIM; Cel Sci Not Yet Trading to Its Potential

RIMM isn't "giving it's phones away", the network operators are subsidizing them more heavily. RIMM's gross margin on each phone sold increased over the last Q, with guidance for this to increase further in the current Q.

Do you believe AAPL is worried because a new iPhone "fell" from $399 to $99? I sure don't.

If you want to look at the price of a phone you have to look at the money recieved by the manufacturer, not the price "paid" upfront by the consumer.

Disclosure. Long both. Short Nokia.

On Nov 16 12:35 PM JamesApple wrote:

> Don't know much behind Rim's giving away blackberrys like free candies,
> they are lousy phones that belong in junkyards anyway. But it's
> common sense that companies that keep on giving away their products
> will go bankrupt quite soon. HTC, Samsung, Nokia, LG all make phones
> that look much more like phones than the blackberrys, and these phones
> are much higher quality and cost less than Rim blackberrys. Rim should
> be squeezed out by these competitors and go bankrupt by year 2013.

Stock Prices and Unemployment Peaks

I find this a curious distinction. The reason "employment" matters is that it dictates how confident consumers feel, and how much cash they have to spend.

Returning furloughed workers, increasing the hours of hourly paid workers, and having others feel more secure in their employment are all big positives for economic activity, and should not be dismissed just because they do not result in the same reduction in unemployment statistics.


"naturally they will begin to boost the workweek and just getting back to pre-recession levels would be the same as hiring more than two million people. Then there are the record number of people who got furloughed into part-time work and again, they total over nine million, and these folks are not counted as unemployed even if they are working considerably fewer days than they were before the credit crunch began."

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

On Nov 06 01:27 PM JamesApple wrote:
>
> What makes you think Apple cannot make a new iron clad
> secure corporate smartphone

Nothing. You completely missed the point. I didn't suggest AAPL "couldn't do this". I suggested that they are not trying to.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

I would have thought this list is testimony to AAPL's abject lack of interest in corporates so far. Kraft is the only notable large multinational that I see. Can you imagine what this list would look like for RIMM?

AAPL has no history of great success with corporates in any of its product lines. Maybe this is about to change, but I just don't see the focus on it.

iPhone is a nightmare to deploy in a corporate environment compared with a Blackberry. For a start you have to disable most of its features such as access to appStore, integration with non corporate email systems etc in order to make it safe enough to use. And, I'm sorry, what exactly IS an iphone without these features? Then you are missing features you need which are antiethical to AAPL, such as native ability to read MSFT format documents.

I am sure AAPL could crack this market, I just don't see them trying.


On Nov 06 09:09 AM pk de cville wrote:

> Here's the business argument for iPhone.
>
> Highly competitive creative businesses are using it in very innovative
> ways. How long will it take for testimonials like these to open the
> doors to large enterprise environments?
>
> www.apple.com/iphone/b...
>

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

We do see that VZ has positioned RIMM against other phones for some time. Of concern to me, though, is VZ seemingly positioning the new MOT phone as its new flagship product. If we believe marketing can make a difference, and as VZ is pouring money into Droid as its "biggest marketing campaign ever", then this has to concern RIMM stock holders.

Long RIMM and not bashing, but RIMM do rely on network operators to market their product and so I do have concerns in this area. Let's watch how splashy and successful this marketing campaign really is.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It's about time I added a thankyou thankyou thankyou for sharing your views with us - Brilliant!

Advance Q3 GDP: +3.5% vs. +3.2% consensus and prior -0.7% - the best growth in two years. GDP price index +0.8% vs. +1.3% consensus and prior flat.

Although you are thumbs down by other commentors I have to agree.

We are seeing cash for clunkers annualized, as well as the homebuyers tax credit. Clunkers is done and with rates inching up and mortgage applications falling off a cliff, maybe homebuyers tax credit is done too.

Backing out the effect of these two programs leaves this Q GDP probably closer to 1%.

I agree your comments on employment as well, sustainable GDP growth is going to be very difficult with no sign in sight YET of a notable upturn.

While we can expect to rally off the back of these numbers, backing out these programs from next Q and assuming the employment picture doesn't change, the early estimates for NEXT quarters GDP could be a nasty reality check.


>"Not truly "the best growth in two years". Eliminate cost cutting and
>"tax dollars for clunkers" and you've got a very dire situation.
> Oh, and more ugly unemployment data just came out as well.
> I trust no market pump off any of this "smoke-n-mirror" GDP data. "

How Hard Is It to Transfer Credit Card Debt?

That depends on who has increased rates. If they have increased rates correctly for those customers who were ultimately going to default anyway, then they will drive some of them to other banks.

So I would suggest it depends on how successfully the rate increases have been targetted.


On Oct 27 09:51 AM Smalltownbanker wrote:

> Good customers go away, those who are struggling now can't move and
> will now default. Citi loses, customer loses. Taxpayer loses because
> we bailed out these morons.

How Hard Is It to Transfer Credit Card Debt?

They are following amex who did this 12 months ago. Amex even paid some customers to successfully close their accounts.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

I have to endorse this comment wholeheartedly.

I did enjoy this article, but if the models used are hopeless at predicting the share price of AAPL (which I think they are) then the author should discover and acknowledge this, even privately.


On Oct 25 01:22 PM Mikael wrote:

> First of all, thanks for a fun to read article. I have some questions
> and thoughts.
>
> Over the last 5-10 years, when would your models have told you to
> buy and sell Apple? Could you add some charts for that?
>
> You see, I would like to see if any of the models you use in your
> article can predict the Apple stockprice with any accuracy (greater
> than 50% of the time). Only then will you know if you can actually
> rely on any of them. Same thing goes for Cramer's model. When during
> the last 5-10 years did it predict when to buy or sell AAPL correctly?
>
>
> Throwing numbers around is like you said: entertainment or a commercial.
> And that's why I really would like to see you go the extra mile on
> this one, to figure out which model would have made the most money
> predicting Apple's stock price.

Research in Motion: A Long-Term Play

One further item to muse on LaChic

"Gross margin for the second quarter was 44.1%, in line with the guidance we provided in April and higher than the 43.6% in the first quarter [due to reductions in raw material costs] as well as the shifts in the product mix, as we discussed in the last earnings call."

Research in Motion: A Long-Term Play

LaChic, do you have any information on who is paying for those phones? I would question whether this should be a hit on RIMM or a hit on the network operator? Maybe this is a reason to be a little shy on purchasing Verizon stock.....

Q2 Average selling price was $357
Q3 Average selling price was $345
Q4 projected selling price is $320

While this is clearly trending down, it is to be expected given the push into consumer space, and is not really the sort of price collapse implied by a buy 1 get two free promotion?

Congratulations on your near term exit price btw.


On Oct 26 08:11 AM LaChic wrote:

> when a company is practically giving away their phones that cannot
> be a good sign for now....I sold a while back, part of my research
> on a stock is visiting stores and asking questions.....buy 1 get
> two free, told me to get out of the stock, so I did at 80.75...I
> have no plans on getting back in until i see a correction in this
> market.

A Dow Double in 10 years? Easy

Inflation will help the dow doubling case. Stocks are commodities priced in dollars. If the value of a dollar falls (inflation) the price of a stock expressed in dollars will go up more quickly.


On Oct 07 02:13 PM Larry House wrote:

> It may sound easy enough, but don't underestimate the long-term economic
> problems we face. Other "experts" who manage billions of dollars
> are predicting growth of 1-3% for the next few years--a good-sized
> chunk of the 10 years. Beyond that, we may face high inflation.
> On top of all, we have growing budget deficits. Stocks will have
> a hard time averaging 7.2% per year with that backdrop. I hope it
> happens, but I don't expect it.