boisterousbob's Comments

3 Reasons to Be Bullish on Natural Gas

Wed, 23 Dec 2009 19:06:35 -0500

Jylkka, he is saying he expects UNG to go up before it has to roll to the next month future. Contango (later delivery months priced higher than earlier ones) should not be an issue for holding UNG if you exit the position before the fund rolls out a month.

On Dec 23 05:18 PM Joe Red wrote:

> If Jylkka is bullish on the front month, why would you favor UNG
> if contango affects it?

The Winner-Takes-All Smartphone

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 23:36:59 -0500

Essence I think you have to look at value for money not just price. Games on PSP, DS etc. typically cost many millions of dollars to produce, with everyone from graphic artists to music producers involved in the overall production. Games on the iPhone are typically very inexpensive and produced by one or two people. This may change over time as individuals and small companies drop out of iPhone app production. As the ecosystem matures and peoples' willingness to pay for novelty crap subsides, only professional software developers will remain, and both prices and quality will increase.

Some of this also comes down to capabilities, there really is no competition between an iPhone and a PSP in terms of the quality of game that can be produced. Appstore will still sell games for sure, iPhone has the convenience factor. But comparing a leading PSP game with a leading iPhone game is rather like comparing a Cadillac (or at least a Chevrolet) with a children's bicycle.

No I don't hate AAPL I am long the stock, own several of their products and love the company. I just think that comparing a wonderful phone with a wonderful gaming console is a tiny bit silly.

On Dec 22 12:47 PM Essence wrote:

> I keep hearing - and getting confused - with references to the iPhone
> being expensive. For a smart phone, you cannot get more bang for
> your buck than you can with the iPhone. Everyone else is MORE expensive.
> (iPhone 3G for $99???) And Apple invented the concept of free or
> almost free apps - equivalent games on the PSP or the DS are 4 -
> 10 times more expensive!
>
> This doesn't sound like the Apple of yesteryear. They ARE competitive
> on price. VERY competitive. That, I suspect, changes everything.
>
>
> I suspect RIMM is going to find it very challenging to transfer their
> operating system into the new world quickly enough and to truly capture
> the consumer market. Android will be a significant challenge to the
> iPhone as the hardware choices multiply but why will there not be
> room for all of them? The mobile handset market is world's larger
> than the PC market ever was and compatibility isn't the same issue
> with phones that it was in the early PC days.

Corporate IT Spending to Continue Rising in 2010

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:10:17 -0500

Paul thankyou for sharing this with us.

The changewave data is really interesting and very encouraging for AAPL longs on adoption by the corporate sector which really looks to be picking up strength.

The Winner-Takes-All Smartphone

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 17:54:48 -0500

Going right against the trend I am going to suggest that the appStore (for iPhone as a target at least) will be a truly spectacular flash in the pan.

People have short attention spans and it is only so long that people will find applications like this amusing www.mobilecrunch.com/2...

So much of the stuff on appstore is duplicate and/or utter garbage, and cannot possibly be making a profit for the application writers. You only have to look at the distribution of downloads to see that.

To be honest, I expect that appStore as an incubator will find many new uses for software on a phone. However, of the 100K or 500K or how ever many apps end up on there only a tiny percentage will turn out to have any longevity. These profitable apps will naturally appear on other successful platforms in time anyway.

Disclosure. Long AAPL.

Research in Motion Finally Gets Moving

Fri, 18 Dec 2009 08:56:30 -0500

Lenny I started commenting and then I got concerned people might just think I am your alter ego.

I agree with everything you wrote. I am long both AAPL and RIMM because I think they both have wonderful prospects although for quite different reasons.

I would agree that the appstore is both brilliant and irrelevant for a large tranche of consumers all at the same time.

It is also quite possible that the world will tire the novelty of watching movies and managing their finances on a 3" screen, and of the 100K apps the 7 (or 32 or whatever) that are "must have" will appear on every platform anyway. This evolution will take time, like when the world went gaga for 50 function digital watches for a couple years before returning to buying watches that tell the time and look good. Don't get me wrong, AAPL can make a ton of money meantime.

In any case, I have no idea why people insist on pitching AAPL against RIMM, when there is plenty of room for both at the expense of Samsung, Nokia, Motorola et al.

Can RIM Keep Up with Apple and Android?

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:27:54 -0500

"Average selling prices. RIM has been using “buy one, get one free” promotions in recent quarters. "

This seems to be a common misconception. RIM has NOT been using these promotions, the network operators have.

RIM's ASP came in exactly on forecast at $317 per unit, and is projected at $320 for next Q.

What you are seeing is network operators (who are raising their monthly charges) subsidizing the purchase of the phone more heavily.

Dreamliner Flies: Report from the Scene

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:20:20 -0500

That's not a real plane, it's made of plastic!

Just kidding. She's beautiful!

Can RIM Keep Up with Apple and Android?

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:17:06 -0500

One differentiator RIMM point to is their partnering with the network operators, and providing technologies to maximize use of network capacity, for example BBM.

We have seen how iPhone was able to crush the AT&T network, leading to frustrated customers and higher monthly data charges now and on the horizon.

I think this is an area to watch because, if it becomes markedly cheaper to use a Blackberry than a competing device, that could give RIMM a useful edge.

Disclosure long RIMM and AAPL.

The REAL Unemployment Rate

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:15:31 -0500

Paco this is interesting, but we have to compare apples with apples. If unemployment is 16% today, what was it a year ago or two years ago?

Obviously if we compare an adjusted employment number of today with an unadjusted number from yesterday we will succeed in making things look as weak as possible, but how useful is it? The answer for me at least, is, it is impossible to say without being able to compare it directly with history...

RIM: Sentiment Drops Ahead of Earnings

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:42:06 -0500

It would be useful to know how many people voted on this site. I looked and can't see, it it seems they don't want you to know that. If this is the opinion of 4 million people it's really interesting. If it's the opinion of 4 people it's kinda useless.

Sentiment seems very poor around RIMM at the moment, look at all the media coverage. If anything I would suspect this is a contrary indicator.

RIM: Sentiment Drops Ahead of Earnings

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:32:12 -0500

"proprietary factors to calculate sentiment", come on, can any overpaid financial "expert" really think we believe this trash?"

No, people don't expect you to "believe it". No one knows for sure what will happen to the share price do they really need to say that every single time they present any information?

People expect you to weigh this in with all your other information. If you believe that sentiment is important, then here is something to consider. If you don't believe that sentiment is important then you can safely pass - but do ask yourself what you think is more important than peoples' psychology and mindset in driving stock prices.

Thankyou to the author for opening my eyes to another way of looking at sentiment.

Several Ways to Play RIM

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:16:28 -0500

QWERTY keyboards are a problem in China? This is curious. I would assume that most people considering an iphone can use a computer.

Guess what type of keyboard computers have, even in China? Hint: It begins with Q and ends in WERTY.

Private-Jet Divas Miss Their Meeting with Obama

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 23:56:51 -0500

So some men were delayed at an airport because of fog. A different man at a different airport was not delayed. OK!

Given the squawking by this administration on saving the planet, maybe this should have been a video conference anyway.....

Citi to exit TARP: • Citigroup (C) to sell $17B in shares and $3.5B of tangible equity units to repay the $20B in TARP funds it owes. • Treasury to sell up to $5B of its Citi shares concurrently, and will exit its entire 34% stake over the next 6-12 months. • Citi to terminate its loss-sharing agreement with the government, and will no longer be considered a beneficiary of "exceptional financial assistance" under TARP beginning in 2010.

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 07:53:56 -0500

Maybe. But it is mark to unending catastrophe really better than mark to optimistic expectation? I don't think so.

On Dec 14 07:24 AM MarketGuy wrote:

> All this is smoke and mirrors without Mark to Market. Their "real
> book" is flat out ugly.

Apple vs. Amazon: An iTablet Would Redefine the Ebook Market

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:25:18 -0500

The tablet will require a data connection. As voice becomes free once you have data (and as everyone will ultimately buy data), this seems a very sensible evolution for carrier subsidy.

Well, it seems sensible to me at least :)

On Dec 09 05:31 PM Apple Investor wrote:

> A subsidized Mac Tablet, iSlate, whatever? I don't know. A tablet
> is a cool device for sure, but it's not something you'll be carrying
> with you everywhere you go, not like a cell phone. I just don't see
> the value proposition there for the carrier.
>
> I do agree with you on the margin. It would be hard to believe that
> Apple would enter into any product line without seeing at least a
> 30% profit margin.
>
> On Dec 09 05:23 PM Paul Zimbardo wrote:

The Google Phone, Unlocked (Confirmed and More Details)

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:11:03 -0500

Unlocking an iphone is free. A quick search on google (see, I am with the program), coupled with the ability to follow a few simple plain english instructions is all that is required.

Or as you say, a trip to the nearest china town and a $10 bill.

On Dec 13 04:22 PM M-P wrote:

> You can already jailbreak or crack the iPhone + others (at least
> for TDMA/GSM variant vs. CDMA) ... at least it's available to do
> for a reasonable price ... I agree that it's better to be the "arms
> dealer" here vs. alienating the channel ... we'll see.

The Google Phone, Unlocked (Confirmed and More Details)

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:09:34 -0500

I think this concept is a bit silly. Maybe I am being naive.

People don't like paying for their phones they want them subsidized. This leads to two consequences:

People with contracts almost always buy a new phone when their contract expires, so who cares if it is unlocked or not?

People with pay as you go are looking for lowest price, and will almost always choose an inexpensive handset. So who cares if it is unlocked or not?

I suppose this could open up the market for second hand handsets, for people who want to spend even less money on portable communicators. But new phones are so cheap, who cares if old ones are unlocked or not?

The Unlocked Phone Movement Gets a Big Boost

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:58:18 -0500

I am struggling with the idea that the tablet kills smartphones. Assuming the most common forecasts are in the right ballpark, do I really want to try stuffing a $1000, 10" tablet into my pocket instead of a phone? Personally, I wouldn't bet on it.

For me the most obvious target market is currently satisfied by netbooks and smaller laptops. AAPL would presumably make a product which is less open and significantly less expandable than current offerings, but does have that slick AAPL appeal. An interesting competition!

On Dec 13 02:05 PM JamesApple wrote:

> Apple tablet is making every smartphone, cellphone, notebook and
> netbook, e-readers obosolete. Apple tablet is the game changer that
> makes even unlocked smartphones obsolete.
>
> Apple tablet can run Apple OSX, Microsoft Windows, iPhone OS concurrently
> in up to 7 concurrent Apple tablet windows. The Apple tablet runs
> on a Intel I7 975 CPU, 32 gigabytes of Ram, 2 terabytes of RAID 0
> harddisks, the 10.1" HD screen has a resolution of 4096 x 8192, battery
> life is 6 months, 0.2" thick, 8 USB3 ports, 2 Bluetooths, satellite
> modem capable of dynamic CDMA, GSM, WiMax, LTE, all the radio technologies
> available, 12 megapixel camera with 36x zoom Niki lens with 2x natural
> sunlight flash torch, the entire Apple tablet weights only 0.8 pound,
> has NSA tripleDES hardware encryption top secret level security,
> 52 card slot readers, made of space shuttle alloy capable of taking
> meteor impacts, submerge up to 6000' under water, and yes, free if
> charge if you subscribe to a 1 year contract with China Unicom.

>
> Merry Christmas, and sleep well. Zzzzzz

Nokia Look-Ahead to December 2009 Quarterly Results

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:44:48 -0500

I can't help feeling that the last three comments mistake making the coolest products first from running a profitable enterprise. First mover advantage is expensive and risky. Updating and cleaning up on other people's innovations less so. A reminder for the AAPL officianado's, the massive innovation of Sony's Walkman coupled with buying music studios was updated into a massive success by AAPL with ipod. The much bigger innovation was by Sony, mobile personal music was a whole concept which did not previously exist. Turning it into mp3 equivalent, and updating the distribution mechanism was an incremental innovation of Sony's model, and look at that success!

Don't count Nokia out in areas where they aren't first, unless you are day/swing trading rather than investing. They still have 40% of the worlds handset market. And we can bash RIMM all we like, but they still sell the most popular smartphone in america and in case you missed it that means AAPL doesn't.

Nokia isn't dead, and still worth watching if not investing in now, to see what they can do with their billions.

Disclosure, long AAPL and RIMM.

All Eyes on Employment

Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:45:35 -0500

I have never seen any support for the notion that BLS statistics are manipulated. Inaccurate, sometimes wildly so? Yes. Need deep care in interpretation? Yes. Get revised too frequently, and sometimes enormously? Yes. None of this is evidence of manipulation.

In any event the whole point seems to me moot. When media can create a frenzy with Dubai having a massive amount of failed debt, then only 2 days later cut the problem to one tenth, trading desks with free money can drive the market any way they like.

In my opinion you conspiracy theorists are looking in entirely the wrong place.

Bye, Bye iPhone - Not So Fast!

Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:46:59 -0500

I can only agree with the author, as a long time iphone user I have to say that while it totally rocks as a highly portable computer and entertainment centre, it really is very average as a telephone, and that's being kind to it.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 19:16:43 -0500

You completely miss the point. There is absolutely no need to go to all the trouble and expense of actually producing oil, in order to benefit from the schemes the author outlines.

On Nov 19 03:47 PM GhostOfSpec wrote:

> There is a bit of paranoia going on here. If oil prices really were
> massively manipulated to much higher than they "should" be then new
> companies would enter the market, produce oil, and collect big profits.
> Granted, this takes time but it would happen.
>
> The oil markets do have strange nonlinearities. However, as the
> first post pointed out, oil prices will continue to go up, up, and
> up in the long term since there is a finite quantity of oil and the
> demand for oil increases almost every year. (Oil demand has dropped
> but that is only because of massive recession and an oil price that
> hit $140/barrel).
>
> Most of the easy to extract oil has been found and is being pumped
> out. Newer oil discoveries tend to cost much more to extract since
> they are deep underwater or in difficult forms such as tar sands.
>
>
> So, a paranoid conspiracy theory cannot account for high oil prices.
> It can merely account for temporary bubbles & nonlinearities.

Playing the Options Game in RIM; Cel Sci Not Yet Trading to Its Potential

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:55:16 -0500

RIMM isn't "giving it's phones away", the network operators are subsidizing them more heavily. RIMM's gross margin on each phone sold increased over the last Q, with guidance for this to increase further in the current Q.

Do you believe AAPL is worried because a new iPhone "fell" from $399 to $99? I sure don't.

If you want to look at the price of a phone you have to look at the money recieved by the manufacturer, not the price "paid" upfront by the consumer.

Disclosure. Long both. Short Nokia.

On Nov 16 12:35 PM JamesApple wrote:

> Don't know much behind Rim's giving away blackberrys like free candies,
> they are lousy phones that belong in junkyards anyway. But it's
> common sense that companies that keep on giving away their products
> will go bankrupt quite soon. HTC, Samsung, Nokia, LG all make phones
> that look much more like phones than the blackberrys, and these phones
> are much higher quality and cost less than Rim blackberrys. Rim should
> be squeezed out by these competitors and go bankrupt by year 2013.

Stock Prices and Unemployment Peaks

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:15:41 -0500

I find this a curious distinction. The reason "employment" matters is that it dictates how confident consumers feel, and how much cash they have to spend.

Returning furloughed workers, increasing the hours of hourly paid workers, and having others feel more secure in their employment are all big positives for economic activity, and should not be dismissed just because they do not result in the same reduction in unemployment statistics.

"naturally they will begin to boost the workweek and just getting back to pre-recession levels would be the same as hiring more than two million people. Then there are the record number of people who got furloughed into part-time work and again, they total over nine million, and these folks are not counted as unemployed even if they are working considerably fewer days than they were before the credit crunch began."

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:47:07 -0500

On Nov 06 01:27 PM JamesApple wrote:
>
> What makes you think Apple cannot make a new iron clad
> secure corporate smartphone

Nothing. You completely missed the point. I didn't suggest AAPL "couldn't do this". I suggested that they are not trying to.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:34:16 -0500

I would have thought this list is testimony to AAPL's abject lack of interest in corporates so far. Kraft is the only notable large multinational that I see. Can you imagine what this list would look like for RIMM?

AAPL has no history of great success with corporates in any of its product lines. Maybe this is about to change, but I just don't see the focus on it.

iPhone is a nightmare to deploy in a corporate environment compared with a Blackberry. For a start you have to disable most of its features such as access to appStore, integration with non corporate email systems etc in order to make it safe enough to use. And, I'm sorry, what exactly IS an iphone without these features? Then you are missing features you need which are antiethical to AAPL, such as native ability to read MSFT format documents.

I am sure AAPL could crack this market, I just don't see them trying.

On Nov 06 09:09 AM pk de cville wrote:

> Here's the business argument for iPhone.
>
> Highly competitive creative businesses are using it in very innovative
> ways. How long will it take for testimonials like these to open the
> doors to large enterprise environments?
>
> www.apple.com/iphone/b...
>

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:19:59 -0500

We do see that VZ has positioned RIMM against other phones for some time. Of concern to me, though, is VZ seemingly positioning the new MOT phone as its new flagship product. If we believe marketing can make a difference, and as VZ is pouring money into Droid as its "biggest marketing campaign ever", then this has to concern RIMM stock holders.

Long RIMM and not bashing, but RIMM do rely on network operators to market their product and so I do have concerns in this area. Let's watch how splashy and successful this marketing campaign really is.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 06:39:35 -0400

It's about time I added a thankyou thankyou thankyou for sharing your views with us - Brilliant!

Advance Q3 GDP: +3.5% vs. +3.2% consensus and prior -0.7% - the best growth in two years. GDP price index +0.8% vs. +1.3% consensus and prior flat.

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:52:21 -0400

Although you are thumbs down by other commentors I have to agree.

We are seeing cash for clunkers annualized, as well as the homebuyers tax credit. Clunkers is done and with rates inching up and mortgage applications falling off a cliff, maybe homebuyers tax credit is done too.

Backing out the effect of these two programs leaves this Q GDP probably closer to 1%.

I agree your comments on employment as well, sustainable GDP growth is going to be very difficult with no sign in sight YET of a notable upturn.

While we can expect to rally off the back of these numbers, backing out these programs from next Q and assuming the employment picture doesn't change, the early estimates for NEXT quarters GDP could be a nasty reality check.

>"Not truly "the best growth in two years". Eliminate cost cutting and
>"tax dollars for clunkers" and you've got a very dire situation.
> Oh, and more ugly unemployment data just came out as well.
> I trust no market pump off any of this "smoke-n-mirror" GDP data. "

How Hard Is It to Transfer Credit Card Debt?

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:29:06 -0400

That depends on who has increased rates. If they have increased rates correctly for those customers who were ultimately going to default anyway, then they will drive some of them to other banks.

So I would suggest it depends on how successfully the rate increases have been targetted.

On Oct 27 09:51 AM Smalltownbanker wrote:

> Good customers go away, those who are struggling now can't move and
> will now default. Citi loses, customer loses. Taxpayer loses because
> we bailed out these morons.