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boisterousbob

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  • China's Solar Wafer Production Seems Out of Control [View article]
    Because if you are anything like LDK solar, who can produce polysilicon for about $.9/kg, it is cheaper to buy it (at $.5/kg or less) than make it.

    In other words "your own cheap supply" can be damn expensive!


    On Sep 07 09:41 AM Dave Marsh wrote:

    > I thought Renesola bought a module maker so they could supply poly
    > internally, moving it more towards a Trina vertically integrated
    > model. Kelvin: Was I misinformed? Why sell poly at a loss when
    > you can supply your other (module) half with your own cheap supply,
    > then sell the modules with some kind of positive margin.
    Sep 7 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Markets in Review: Despite Cheer, Risky Assets Look Weary [View article]
    You sir are a superhero!!!! Thankyou thankyou thankyou for sharing all of this in such a concise and compelling form....
    Aug 30 06:27 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Wrap: This Market's Running on Empty [View article]
    "I wont go into reasons why every other strategy wont work, but for people still buying the SDS or the SKF"

    I can only agree with this wholeheartedly. Be a bear, be a Bull as you choose. But for GODS SAKE don't own leveraged ETF's for more than a day. Do your homework people!
    Aug 30 06:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What’s Really Going on with Apple, Google, AT&T and the FCC [View article]
    I don't understand. Of course AAPL are trying to prevent GOOG from placing compelling voice telephony apps on their phone. As an AAPL shareholder you would expect nothing less. I don't see why this is even a story.

    That said, I am in the minority who, as am iphone and touch owner, absolutely hate the aapl user experience. I find their software counterintuitive, and difficult. Ever tried playing a random video file on either device? You have to jump through hoops to get it to play because aapl are "preseving their user experience" by only allowing very specific and limited formats to be playable and forcing you to convert the file at great and unnecessary complexity.

    AAPL take great steps to preserve ownership of their platform, frequently to the detriment of a user who is trying to get an AAPL device to do something that many other devices can accomplish quite easily.

    Again, as an AAPL shareholder you want them to do this and continue to convince people to pay for the priveledge. As an owner of an AAPL decive, you probably want quite the opposite. Just choose your posing and hope....
    Aug 24 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Solar Investing Hedge Fund List [View article]
    Fred, I agree!!! I lke solars that "verticalise" so long as they are verticalising up the value chain not down it.

    Polysilicon production, close to the bottom of the chain, is stunningly expensive to install plant for, has razor thin margins, and has left companies such as LDK massively exposed to the collapse in price of poly.
    Aug 17 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nearly Bankrupt Airlines: A Good Short [View article]
    Lol not only is the 230mpg for the Chevy Volt only good for 40 miles, but this value doesn't tell you how much your electricity bill will go up when you plug it in each night either....

    With typical electricity prices you will be paying $2.64 to charge your car up and go 40 miles. This will buy about a gallon of gas which will drive one of todays fuel efficient cars 30-40 miles anyway.

    The Volt is interesting, but it ain't necessarily gonna cut your fuel bills much....
    Aug 15 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regions Financial: Sitting on a $22.8 Billion Sink Hole? [View article]
    This article seems to be an argument in favour of FAS157.

    While I will follow this author hopefully forever for interesting content, I cannot take seriously the suggestion that following FAS157 results in more accurate valuations than the current system.

    I have 1000 loans and 900 of them are performing. The remaining 100 non performing loans will likely result in a 50% loss. So I have to mark ALL the loans at 50% because the market is not willing to buy them off me for more?

    Being able to mark assets at any value you like should be criminal. Actually it is!

    But following FAS157 is so dumb that it too should be criminal. Unless of course, it automatically follows, that if 10% of my loans fail to perform then by definition so will EVERY SINGLE ONE of the others.
    Aug 15 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Regions Financial: Sitting on a $22.8 Billion Sink Hole? [View article]
    Tom, would BoA not benefit from increasing faith and confidence in banks in general?

    Perhaps BoA's interests are best served by raising their estimates on as many financial entities as they can get away with...


    On Aug 14 08:51 AM Tom Armistead wrote:

    > Seems like Bank of America missed this article too, they raised RF
    > to a buy with a target of 7.
    Aug 15 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart of the Week: Putting Non-Farm Payrolls in Context [View article]
    I love this graph. I love the non farm payrolls section. I truly wish I could find a graph with total employment on it, not unemployment.

    The economy is driven primarily by the number of people who are employed. I could give two hoots about the seasonal adjustments and 57 ways of classifying whether someone is unemployed, marginally employed, been unemployed too long to count etc etc. I just want to know how many people are actually productively employed. How productive their employment is another analysis entirely.

    Has anyone ever seen such a graph?
    Aug 15 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elliot Wave: 'Step Aside from Long Positions' [View article]
    "When the banks rally due to eased accounting restrictions, is that good?"

    At the risk of sounding like a stuck record on this, surely the banks collapsed in large part due to a brand new accounting standard, so why wouldn't they rally when it was repealed?


    On Aug 12 01:36 PM twotraps wrote:

    > Perspective and time frame. Since March this is a decent move without
    > enough upside rejection as yet to call it over. Flat out. Look
    > at the move up since March against the larger backdrop of 15 yrs
    > or so, on a weekly basis....its just a nice bounce. Could this be
    > the top of that bounce on that larger time frame, absolutely. To
    > step away from the technical side for a second and venture where
    > its really murky and dangerous...the Fundamentals...I wonder again
    > if the market has fully priced in the larger situation. When the
    > banks rally due to eased accounting restrictions, is that good?
    > Extending unemployment benefits multiple times, is that good? No
    > one knows the exact results of the stimulus 'cause we've never seen
    > anything like it! What can the long term effects of rising defaults
    > on prime loans look like? Other than the business news channels
    > for dramatic flare....what benefit is there to assigning a level
    > of stock market with the relative health of the economy.
    >
    Aug 12 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recession Is Over: Long Live Depression [View article]
    It would be nice to see some analysis of cash for clunkers.

    The assertion is that people are being financially reckless making a typical cash for clunkers trade.

    Lets say I own an old car that is worth $5K and is likely to need $2k in repairs in the next 3 years, I do 10,000 miles/year and it does 20mpg. At $3/gallon that is $4.5K. Let's say this car would be worth $2K in 3 years.

    Let's say I replace it with a $15K car which I paid $13K for and it does 30mpg or $3K. Let's say the car is worth $7K in 3 years and has no repairs.

    My cost of ownership of the old car is $9.5K.
    My cost of ownership of the new car is $9K.

    From a cash flow perspective I think I am ahead, or about even if I finance it.

    Why is this so bad?
    Aug 11 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Nasdaq Winning Streak Coming to an End? [View article]
    A very interesting historical perspective, thankyou!
    Jul 25 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 Earnings Are Not What They Seem [View article]
    Hmmm. AIG lost what $61 billion and GM what $39 billion?

    How does the chart look if you do the S&P498 and we add $99 billion back?
    Jul 24 11:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bye Bye Apple [View article]
    " Huh? And, do you really think you know where Apple will innovate next? Did you predict the iPod? Did you predict iTunes? Did you predict the iPhone? No? Why do you think you have the ability to predict or not, the next thing Apple does?"

    Agreed - but does it not seem prudent to hold AAPL until the point where you are no longer satisfied you are seeing sufficient innovation?

    For me the iphone is enough to carry AAPL another 2-3 years along with all the other brilliant products. By perhaps half way through this time (and you're right I can't predict what it is) I will need to SEE the new product. The fact that they innovated in the past and ARE LIKELY to innovate again in the future is not enough.
    Jul 24 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bye Bye Apple [View article]
    I agree the authors view the long term prospects for AAPL (3-5 years out) are very troubling. We need to see a new large market for them to begin to exploit soon, and have heard no indication of it so far. I agree with others though I think the author's timing on counting AAPL out now is incredibly early.


    "1. Steve Job's illness heightened the strength of Apple's Management Team. I have full confidence in the direction of the company over the long term."

    AAPL announced no dramatic innovations during his absence, which was too short to expose any impact we will see should he leave the company.

    "2. The ipod market, while a driver for sales has transitioned as a growth vehicle for the company. There will always be strong steady sales of these devices"

    Never say always. Sony invented portable music with Walkman. Go look at their market share now.

    "3. Enterprise - Enterprise adoption will skyrocket with Snow Leopard. The achilles heel of the corporate market is Active Directory and Outlook/Exchange. "

    I think this is naive. I don't see AAPL having any experience in or focus on the corporate market. Think - why does iPhone not challenge Bberry in corporates? AAPL excels on aspects that consumers care about and businesses don't. When was the last time you saw an AAPL product in use in a bank, airline etc?

    "4.Changing technology - Apples investment in its own chip DNA and the arrival/adoption of new battery technology will herald Apple's continuing dominance at the upper end of the market."

    There may be differentiators here, but differentiators don't make products. Nobody will ever buy an AAPL battery for the sake of owning the battery. These things aren't products. While innovation is good, we need to see products, not technologies that go in products.


    "5. Microsoft. - Will continue to imitate Apple and disappoint customers. Cloud offerings of the Office suite will diminish the sales."

    Agreed on Office, but I don't see AAPL getting this business. In my opinion windows 7 is brilliant. It is just about as easy to use as Mac. OS's are now almost completely commoditized. MSFT will eventually fully catch up with Mac. Do you really think we will see dramatic innovation in the OS space?

    "6. China.- Apple's iphone offering and its support for languages will blow a new revenue channel. Africa.( Hey they just got high speed access to East Africa this week. LOL)."

    Yes. AAPL isn't nearly done exploiting iPhone which is the primary reason I think this author's call is early. As others have questioned, what comes after iPhone?

    "7. Areas where Apple is missing - rugged computers, Point of Sale Software, Database/Cloud Clients (Filemaker is a gem with potential), Speech/Natural Language interfaces, an imovie type of application for Animation - the areas for innovation are limitless."

    These are all commercial application areas. AAPL has shown no appetite for or ability to tailor it's product for the needs of this segment which are very different from consumer areas. You won't see a corporate IT dept. buying iphone because the screen rotates when you turn it, no matter how much it pleases a consumer.
    Jul 24 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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