Seeking Alpha

boisterousbob

boisterousbob
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View boisterousbob's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Apple Is Worth $80 [View article]
    I have to endorse this comment wholeheartedly.

    I did enjoy this article, but if the models used are hopeless at predicting the share price of AAPL (which I think they are) then the author should discover and acknowledge this, even privately.


    On Oct 25 01:22 PM Mikael wrote:

    > First of all, thanks for a fun to read article. I have some questions
    > and thoughts.
    >
    > Over the last 5-10 years, when would your models have told you to
    > buy and sell Apple? Could you add some charts for that?
    >
    > You see, I would like to see if any of the models you use in your
    > article can predict the Apple stockprice with any accuracy (greater
    > than 50% of the time). Only then will you know if you can actually
    > rely on any of them. Same thing goes for Cramer's model. When during
    > the last 5-10 years did it predict when to buy or sell AAPL correctly?
    >
    >
    > Throwing numbers around is like you said: entertainment or a commercial.
    > And that's why I really would like to see you go the extra mile on
    > this one, to figure out which model would have made the most money
    > predicting Apple's stock price.
    Oct 26, 2009. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research in Motion: A Long-Term Play [View article]
    One further item to muse on LaChic

    "Gross margin for the second quarter was 44.1%, in line with the guidance we provided in April and higher than the 43.6% in the first quarter [due to reductions in raw material costs] as well as the shifts in the product mix, as we discussed in the last earnings call."
    Oct 26, 2009. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research in Motion: A Long-Term Play [View article]
    LaChic, do you have any information on who is paying for those phones? I would question whether this should be a hit on RIMM or a hit on the network operator? Maybe this is a reason to be a little shy on purchasing Verizon stock.....

    Q2 Average selling price was $357
    Q3 Average selling price was $345
    Q4 projected selling price is $320

    While this is clearly trending down, it is to be expected given the push into consumer space, and is not really the sort of price collapse implied by a buy 1 get two free promotion?

    Congratulations on your near term exit price btw.


    On Oct 26 08:11 AM LaChic wrote:

    > when a company is practically giving away their phones that cannot
    > be a good sign for now....I sold a while back, part of my research
    > on a stock is visiting stores and asking questions.....buy 1 get
    > two free, told me to get out of the stock, so I did at 80.75...I
    > have no plans on getting back in until i see a correction in this
    > market.
    Oct 26, 2009. 08:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dow Double in 10 years? Easy [View article]
    Inflation will help the dow doubling case. Stocks are commodities priced in dollars. If the value of a dollar falls (inflation) the price of a stock expressed in dollars will go up more quickly.


    On Oct 07 02:13 PM Larry House wrote:

    > It may sound easy enough, but don't underestimate the long-term economic
    > problems we face. Other "experts" who manage billions of dollars
    > are predicting growth of 1-3% for the next few years--a good-sized
    > chunk of the 10 years. Beyond that, we may face high inflation.
    > On top of all, we have growing budget deficits. Stocks will have
    > a hard time averaging 7.2% per year with that backdrop. I hope it
    > happens, but I don't expect it.
    Oct 7, 2009. 07:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Goldman and CIT: No Free Lunches [View article]
    "The article is about risk concentration so whether the CDS is a hedge or not, there is still a counterparty on the other side of the transaction. 5 banks hold 97% of the notional value of derivatives"

    Good point!

    Just as there is very little transparency in price discovery, the clearing arrangements are totally opaque and net off potential is completely masked. How do you know the 5 banks with 97% notional aren't individually net flat? I'm sorry if you think this is a ridiculous question, but it has to be asked.
    Oct 6, 2009. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On Goldman and CIT: No Free Lunches [View article]
    "everyone that dealt with them was overcollaterized and thrice hedged, who the hell is the last guy in line ultimately responsible for payment if and when CIT goes bust?"

    Out of interest, why does there have to be a last guy? Couldn't there be 50 or 100 institutions collectively on the hook for this?

    The meltdown scenario is interesting, but I would think the impact has to depend on the shape of the interconnections? Sure, if bank A guarantees CIT 100% and bank B guarantees bank A 100% there will be a quick domino. But if this quickly resolves into the entire market being on the hook, then what's another $30 billion?
    Oct 6, 2009. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Can the Zune HD Take Down the King? [View article]
    Not wishing to be anti AAPL I am long the stock, but I do think this Zune does something iphone/touch don't even try.

    I will leave aside the irrelevance of HD media on a 3.5" screen, you REALLY can't see the content any better because of HD on a screen that small.

    My iphone/touch (yes I own both) will not play 90% of the media in my library without conversion which is time consuming and error prone. This is part of AAPL's intention to fully control the user experience, by only natively supporting formats they are comfortable with. It is also in my view a serious drawback that prevents me from using the devices more fully.

    If MSFT do the job properly with Zune, it will be trivial to get it to play anything in my library and I will then have the option to watch the same media on my windows PC, my television via XBox, or take it with me to watch on the Zune.

    With its closed formats and tightly controlled environment, AAPL isn't even trying to provide me this convenience with iphone/touch.

    While recognising the success and power of iTunes, I think there is room in the market for portable media players that simpy just play the darned media.
    Sep 15, 2009. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Natural Gas Fund: A Contrarian Perspective [View article]
    A lot of people seem to need that warning even if you don't, because many people are surprised and dissappointed to lose money with this fund when gas doesn't move, or even rises a few
    per cent.

    Added missing word "rises".

    On Sep 15 08:58 AM boisterousbob wrote:

    > Apppro, I think you miss the point. Well maybe you don't need the
    > warning but plenty of other people do. It isn't the fact that you
    > aren't buying actual gas that is the issue. It is the monthly roll
    > cost of a fund based on futures which show a deep contango. It would
    > not be unreasonable for this fund to lose 10% a month if the price
    > of gas does not move at all. A lot of people seem to need that warning
    > even if you don't, because many people are surprised and dissappointed
    > to lose money with this fund when gas doesn't move, or even a few
    > per cent.
    Sep 15, 2009. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Natural Gas Fund: A Contrarian Perspective [View article]
    Apppro, I think you miss the point. Well maybe you don't need the warning but plenty of other people do. It isn't the fact that you aren't buying actual gas that is the issue. It is the monthly roll cost of a fund based on futures which show a deep contango. It would not be unreasonable for this fund to lose 10% a month if the price of gas does not move at all. A lot of people seem to need that warning even if you don't, because many people are surprised and dissappointed to lose money with this fund when gas doesn't move, or even a few per cent.


    On Sep 13 02:49 PM apppro wrote:

    > What I do find offensive are all these pundits who keep telling the
    > rest of us what the real issues are and what we should or should
    > not be investing in! I quote, "Unfortunately, buyers of UNG think
    > they are buying Natural Gas,". Well, I'm a buyer and know damn well
    > that I am not buying the actual gaseous substance. I realize that
    > I have no room to store it in my apartment!
    > Who died and left all these so-called experts in charge of our well-being?
    >
    >
    > What I would like them to state is that they are short a financial
    > instrument, and that anything they say will be in defense of destroying
    > said instrument to promote their own financial gain.
    Sep 15, 2009. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United States Natural Gas Fund: A Contrarian Perspective [View article]
    Can the author, or anyone, please comment on how the price of natural gas is driven by the price of oil?

    From a laymans perspective, and a beginning potential investor, the products seem to me to be non fungible. I can't burn oil in my kitchen to cook dinner. I can't put natural gas in my car. Why would a change in the price of one product affect the price of the other, when the products are not interchangeable or able to replace each other?
    Sep 13, 2009. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998? [View article]
    "The author mentions: "5. Led by hardware but followed by software" - the author could not be more wrong!!! It is the Apple software (in Macs and iPhones/Touches) that define and give Apple the competitive advantage. "

    I respectfully suggest the truth is right in the middle. Apple software "just works" and one of the main reasons is that it only runs on Apple hardware. Eliminating commodity hardware not specifically tested extensively TOGETHER with the software is what gives apple products a deserved reputation for being solid and reliable.

    I concur that suggesting apple license it's OS to run on other's hardware is anti-ethical to their entire business model and would be a starkly retrograde step. Owning the entire platform is what allow's AAPL to concentrate on giving users exactly the experience that they designed.

    I would also suggest there is a substantial potential stumbling block for AAPL in the future. If they become too large in any one segment, for example portable music, we can imagine a regulator insisting that aaple open up itunes to competitor hardware.

    I agree with the author's sentiment. AAPL's share price is partly based on it's ability to continue producing innovative blockbuster products like iPhone. Mere competence will not cut it. Investors need decide how frequently AAPL must do this, and exit the stock timely if AAPL looks like it is not going to continue to amaze at the same pace.

    AAPL can milk its current product set for sometime to come, but the competition will catch up with all the current offerings. Consider comparing ipod/iphone to Sony's lead in inventing portable music with Walkman, and look where Sony are now in this field. I also add my standard warning that windows 7 is the most (and perhaps only) simply brilliant product that MSFT has introduced.
    Sep 12, 2009. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Is Gaining Momentum: Will the U.S. Be Left in the Dark? [View article]
    Alsodig deep and notice that STP is busy selling solar panels to itself....


    On Sep 10 02:27 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

    > mmnd. The solar industry is suffering some 19th century Darwinian
    > style competition, with Chinese manufacturers Suntech (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > and Yingli Green Energy Holding (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > clearly dumping panels below cost to gain market share. You may laugh,
    > but I watched the Japanese pursue the same strategy in the seventies
    > and eighties to devastating success. They now control half the US
    > automobile market, and the most profitable half at that. As a solar
    > consumer I shouldn’t care, as the 50% price drop has, with Obama’s
    > generous tax subsidies, made new installations cheaper than obtaining
    > electricity from my local power company (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
    > at 12 cents a kilowatt. It’s just a matter of booking the profit
    > in China instead of Phoenix. But the predatory pricing has also kicked
    > my beloved First Solar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) in the
    > shins, which has dropped from 44% from $205 to $115 since May. Use
    > the move to pick up FSLR on the cheap. The company is using advanced
    > cadmium telluride based thin film semiconductor technology, which
    > has enabled it to match the Chinese price cuts dollar for dollar,
    > and the engineering will allow them to continue to do so. The Chinese,
    > wedded to an older polysilicon product, can’t keep playing this game,
    > unless they want to hemorrhage cash, or face US anti-dumping enforcement.
    > To see more on the current fundamentals of solar, please click here.
    Sep 10, 2009. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asia's Solar Industry Warms Up [View article]
    Sorry for multiple posts. This is so curiuous.

    He says their poly costs are below $25/KG, but he doesn't say they are making it themselves!

    BTW they haven't depreciated any of the capex on that plant yet...

    :)


    On Sep 10 09:10 PM boisterousbob wrote:

    > Wow that is interesting. It's not what he said on the last Q conference
    > call...
    Sep 10, 2009. 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asia's Solar Industry Warms Up [View article]
    Wow that is interesting. It's not what he said on the last Q conference call...


    On Sep 10 02:46 PM ldker wrote:

    > Ming/Wei, what is the deal with the rumor that LDK is producing Poly
    > at $25 KG? look at link:
    >
    > www.jlmpacificepoch.co...
    >
    > the above link is by a news company that is often referred to by
    > Briefing.com. Could it be a misquote? If it is true it wld be huge
    > for LDK.
    Sep 10, 2009. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asia's Solar Industry Warms Up [View article]
    Sorry I meant $100 and $50. If polysilicon prices don't recover LDK will be left with a $250billion white elephant. If you are investing watch out carefully for the rate at which they are diluting their shares to pay for this....

    LDK is heading down the value chain into the lower margin areas while it's competitors are heading up the value chain more aggressively into higher margin system level work.

    For what it's worth (maybe not much :) TSL is much stronger IMHO.


    On Sep 10 09:04 PM boisterousbob wrote:

    > Really? LDK are able to make polysilicon at $1/kg but at spot price
    > on the open market it is under $.50/kg.
    >
    > LDK will be able to control their costs if polysilicon recovers notably
    > in price, but they have to wait for that to happen before they can
    > hope to gain any efficiencies from their own planty
    Sep 10, 2009. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
270 Comments
344 Likes