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boisterousbob

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  • Why Apple's Recent 'Analyst Downgrade' Is A Farce [View article]
    He has probably never been to China. It probably has 100 million people richer than he is. That's almost as large as the working population in the USA.

    But hey. What's not to like about a stereotype?
    Jan 6, 2014. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Recent 'Analyst Downgrade' Is A Farce [View article]
    You want to put the SIM in the watch?

    The radio is one of the most power hungry parts of the device.

    Two things will happen if you put the SIM in the watch

    (1) it will get so hot it will be really uncomfortable to wear
    (2) the battery will last about four minutes

    Nice idea though!
    Jan 6, 2014. 09:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    Yes, but let's not be distracted. This gain is trading, not investing.

    While the short investing premise may yet be proven sound, or otherwise - this isn't it.

    AAPL has bounced technically from a moving average and has retaken both a trendline and a support pivot. The coming days are important from a trading perspective, but nothing is important at least until next earnings from an investment perspective....
    Jan 6, 2014. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Prediction #2: Apple Hits $650 A Share [View article]
    Krames, I guess not knowing your circumstances it's impossible to answer, so you cannot take this as advice etc.

    There is an old adage "no one ever made a loss by taking a profit", personally when I don't have a strong view I simply follow this and sell.

    Furthermore shortdated options are always a gamble, no one knows what will happen.

    If you roll the options now and earnings disappoint (stock trades down), you will regret it.

    If you roll the options now and earnings are inline with expectations (stock trades flat) the options will likely lose around 10% of their value overnight as the premium drops out due to reduced uncertainty (earnings known).

    If you sell the options now and earnings are notably above expectations (stock trades up), you can look for a new entry on a reasonable assumption that the resulting stock rally will last significantly more than a single day.

    There are some thoughts. YMMV.

    Good luck and happy 2014!
    Dec 31, 2013. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    He isn't betting the price will fall below $500. He is betting the price will fall faster than his long options will decay, consistent with rising implied volatility due to a falling stock.

    Please learn how options are priced and recognise that they can be sold before expiration before making such comments.
    Dec 30, 2013. 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    that comment was meant to be @flux8
    Dec 30, 2013. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    And if you disagree with him you are betting that those items are not already baked into the share price. Why would you believe this - do you think you are the only person who can see them?

    Does anyone else see a rising wedge pattern with declining momentum and more attraction to the lower line than the upper line.

    Technically AAPL is looking to move dramatically one way or the other, upside or down. It is currently showing more attraction to down than up.
    Dec 30, 2013. 10:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Next Big Innovation Might Be iBeacons And Mobile Payment Processing [View article]
    It's a beautiful story. We are stock investors. How do AAPL make money saving you 15 minutes finding the toilet?
    Dec 30, 2013. 10:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Roars Into A Chinese New Year [View article]
    Sam - if you move carriers in China and keep your existing phone number? From memory there is no way to take your number with you?

    I think this is true and if so represents a notable impediment to mobile carrier mobility in China.
    Dec 30, 2013. 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Next Big Innovation Might Be iBeacons And Mobile Payment Processing [View article]
    Interesting point!

    The Costco strategy has people randomly walking past things they may or may not buy as a result of seeing them.

    The iBeacon strategy (especially when combined with Google Glass!) has the advantage of walking people past things the store thinks they will buy :)

    Want a bar of soap? Trust my directions and I will take you the other way around past the iPad Air we think you really want! Special offer just for you - one day only - buy an Ipad Air and get a bar of soap FOR FREE!!!!
    Dec 11, 2013. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Next Big Innovation Might Be iBeacons And Mobile Payment Processing [View article]
    Can't help the slightly naughty thought how powerfully iBeacons would integrate with Google Glass!

    Think AAPL will do it?

    Thanks for a great article.
    Dec 11, 2013. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]
    Michael, with respect I think you need to separate fundamental from technical analysis. Both disciplines add value.

    I agree the fundamental case needs watching.

    Near term the technicals demand consolidation but this does not mean a retrenchment unless the market demands it through a notable capitulation.

    Technically the market here is very highly uncertain and anyone with a short term concrete up/down call either has so much magic they wouldn't share it or simply doesn't know.

    Bears are best advised to wait until January and form a view around next earnings.

    Bulls will be bulls and won't listen to anything anyway because AAPL has more magic than anything in the history of the world. The stock is just "special" and confusing the stock with the products is of key importance.

    I like my iPhone therefore the stock will go up.

    Whatever.
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • December Surprise: Apple Trounces Dell And More [View article]
    We bulls have to be careful. There is a bear case, although we don't have to subscribe to it now. The biggest problem with the bear case is timing. If iPhone is in the same place in two years that iPod was two years ago, without new breakthrough products, this stock is toast. Choose your own timeframe but don't deny inevitability.

    I am tired of the jingoistic one sided arguments.

    To anyone who has run a 6 person or 1600 person IT shop, with all due respect when you are running a 16,000 person shop the economics are rather different.

    I spent 18 years at a corporate with 20,000 desktops, sunOS and then windows NT and so on. I never called "IT" once to diagnose wintel problems. They had that stuff locked up so tight it just didn't break. My current 140,000 person corporate is the same. In a large corporate, Wintel just works and the economics work because they employ a very small percentage of people to make it work and the equipment costs nothing. None of these guys would ever let you "download an OS upgrade from the appStore". Hell no.

    I am long AAPL, think it is stupid time to short, but equally tired of bulls who can see no threats and no possible future in which AAPL is ever challenged.

    And yes Apple products are easy to use. Except the maps fiasco. Except the pandora competitor which isn't nearly as intuitive. Except iTunes, possibly the worst piece of software in the history of the world ever. Apple stumbles too.

    Stay long and strong until you see sufficient weakness then reconsider. This is a stock, not a marriage.

    Disclosure. Very long AAPL. For as long as it makes sense and no longer. I hope it is a long time, but ALL parties end. Don't be the last one to leave.
    Dec 9, 2013. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    I believe there's a fundamental problem with selling naked calls on AAPL.

    Options typically price off the put side/down side, notice how implied volatility (option "richness") typically recedes in a rising market and increases in a falling market.

    The trouble with AAPL is that this stock, more so than the vast majority, can move up as aggressively, or more aggressively than it moves down. However puts and calls have to be priced the same and carry the same implied volatility. This can leave the calls far too cheap and hence not adequately rewarding the seller for the risk they are taking.

    This is a comment not an article - don't take my word for it - but here is a voice saying that shorting AAPL through the sale of naked calls is riskier/less rewarding than it is with almost any other stock and is not an advisable investment strategy.

    Not only do I think shorting AAPL now shows terrible timing (even though the bears make many good points as to risks that Apple face medium term), I also think anyone selling naked calls on AAPL is trading the short side in an inadvisable way.
    Nov 27, 2013. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Keep Calm And Watch Others Flop [View article]
    I agree with this. While it may sound odd I am both an AAPL bull and an AAPL bear.

    The bulls ignore maturing markets, compressing margins, competitors breaking into the premium sector from underneath. They quote cars and mention "AAPL is a Lexus or BMW" without recognising that a Lexus is a Toyota that went from being a rubbish product that only competed on price and wouldn't worry a Chevy or a Ford, to competing effectively with the soft premium market such as Volvo, to competing head on with the hard premium market such as BMW.

    This will happen to the smartphone market as well, all markets mature and maturity brings these effects, and anyone who tells you "ah yes but AAPL is different" is simply a lunatic.

    The Bulls point out appropriately that the Bears make unfair comparisons today, comparing quarters without a product refresh with quarters with, ignoring upside catalysts such as China deals, new product announcements, buybacks, dividends, an underperforming stock in a frothy market etc. They are right, but these are short term effects.

    A neutral observer would probably expect a blow out quarter ahead (Bull case) but would be watching out for medium term implications beyond (Bear case).

    The Bears are right, but their timing is awful and far too early. The Bulls are right, but they claim invincibility which cannot last indefinitely because it simply never does.

    Be long and strong until the next earnings report, but be prepared to switch sides depending upon what we see.....

    And be prepared to switch again if and when AAPL finally announce a new sector that they will simply blow the doors off.

    Be happilly married to your wife or your husband or your significant other, but not your stock!
    Nov 26, 2013. 06:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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