St Alphonso

Citigroup: A Simple Analysis of a Terribly Complex Company

I don't know finance, but I know programming, and bigger gets more complex exponentially. There is no way to efficiently run something as large and complex as Citi, so it will be an even more colossal collapse when it finally is deemed 'Too big to Succeed'.

if(citi>huge_bank)
fnDisaster();
void fnDisaster();
{
while(US=solvent);
{
fnFeedBottomlessPit($b...
}
}

Prime Mortgages Are Also Going Sour

If massive fraud ends OK this will be fine; however, it doesn't. Massive fraud ultimately ends in disaster. Massive fraud took place, is taking place this minute, and will take place tomorrow. We are defaulting on every kind of debt and this depression may still go as badly as the last. Since we didn't learn anything from S&L except how to cheat on a much grander scale, and how to corrupt the whole system so not only no one goes to jails, Capone is rewarded with a golden parachute. Never been a better time for white collar crime.


On Aug 20 11:00 PM gabe borenstein wrote:

> So Americans are defaulting on the Prime Mortgages as well?
> What does it mean for recovery? not really much.
> Since unemployment is a lagging indicator,it is therefore quite clear
> that the initial stages of the economic recovery will have a marginal
> impact on the employment .
> Until employment picture improves(shortly) ,mortgage issues will
> exist.
> As the expansion gathers momentum the unemployment will decline geometrically
> .
> We will see a noticeable improvement in the figures by the mid of
> the fourth qtr.
> In the meantime ,carefully injected measured liquidity will continue
> to enhance economic momentum.
> The fourth qtr growth will come in at 4.5%(seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
>
> Inflation is not an issue as thisexpansion willnot be driven by demand
> pull forces.
> Let's sit back and enjoy the stock market rally.
> Periodically ,we will have to deal with market paranoia(volatility)
> driven by the gurus of the past who had failed to predict this rally.
>
> Mortgage delinquencies ? they are about to decline

Was the AIG Bailout a Goldman Bailout by Proxy?

If there was any doubt that GS is a front for organized crime at the highest level it has all been removed in the last 12 months. No one I know believes that the monster can be contained. The only questions is will there ever be enough for these guys? It's just a game anymore. How many friggin' jets, yachts, and mansions does one man really need?

On Jul 28 09:03 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:

> Take a look at the bigger picture... the actions that Paulson was
> involved in which led up to the meltdown in Fall 2008:
>
> During that same time frame from March onward, Paulson oversaw and
> participated in the virtual elimination of Bear Sterns, one of Goldman's
> biggest competitors, and at the same time Goldman got access to the
> Fed Discount window... ca-ching... billions of taxpayer "liquidity"
> which they no doubt used to trade the markets with, rather aggressively
> and I will "guess" rather successfully in the post Bear rally to
> 13K +/-.
>
> September, 2008. AIG. Enuff said.
>
> Sept 2008 - Paulson oversaw the destruction of Lehman, another of
> Goldman's biggest competitors. We know how that turned out (for Main
> Street not so hot... but for Goldman... TARP money and bonuses anyone?).
>
>
> Sept 2008 - Paulson oversees the forced marriage of Merrill to BAC,
> ANOTHER major competitor of Goldman... in a marriage that basically
> emasculates Merrill and causes a paralyzing clash of corprorate cultures
> with BAC.
>
> 3 of your biggest competitors dead or crippled in 6 months. You were
> involved right up to your eyeballs in the decisions leading up to
> these outcomes. Many of your Goldman colleagues were major players
> or at least "in the room" during these events.
>
> Now Goldman sits virtually alone at the top of the pile of survivors,
> making vast profits, handing out vast bonuses, holding total, monopolistic
> control over key pieces of the market infrastructures such as the
> NYSE Supplemental Liquidity Provider (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> program, virtually admitting that it possesses programs designed
> to front-run the markets (but of course they would never actually
> use them for that purpose, right?).
>
> You never even considered recusing yourself from these critical decisions
> despite clear conflicts of interest from a public policy standpoint.
>
>
> Does anybody besides me see a pattern of behavior, a pattern that
> led to identical outcomes time after time after time, all centered
> around one man, a man who's immediately previous position had been
> CEO of the company that has benefitted more than any other company
> in the world by this chain of events?
>
> I believe that there should be a full investigation of this entire
> period, and that it should be conducted at and by the highest levels
> of government immediately... US AG, Congress, SEC, state AG's and
> insurance regulators, I don't give a fuck who gets involved, just
> DO IT.

Goldman's Success: Put Down Those Pitchforks

You are either naive or complicit. This was no accident. If this happened in a communist or third-world country we would be howling at the obvious conflict of interest. Paulson made many millions with GS. If you cannot see the obvious crony conflict--don't forget, they didn't even use the TARP the way they said they would: Troubled Asset Relief Program. They rigged the system and stole AN ENTIRE GENERATION'S WEALTH! Killed all their competition. Most folks my age now expect to work until the day they drop dead so those bastards can drive around in helicopters. Try a little research. The blood is everywhere.

Dangerous Fallacy in GDP Measures

My favorite phrase is "Never confuse activity with progress". I couldn't agree with this more.

Are the mutual-fund investors who are pouring money back into emerging markets, junk bonds and volatile energy a) trying to make up for losses, b) chasing performance, c) headed for a big fall?

Not obvious where to invest. The new rotation fad probably makes GM the next buy because it is down so far...Of course, doing something stupid doesn't always pay off...nor does doing something brilliant...

There is no longer such a thing as investing anyway--just devising ways to steal from others.

Still Wary of Those Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction

Parabolic curves always end badly.

_/|
|

Friday Bank Failure #37

You do understand that Citibank has failed and is just on borrowed time from Uncle Sam's allowance. Wachovia? that was gone until another Treasury scheme. BOA? until Sam eats all the toxic crap in that giant cesspool, they are toast. Are you unaware of the Alt-A and Option arm recasts over the next two years? How many more banks will fain is anyone's guess, but don't count on 37 being the end of this or the end of this recession. Someone gets laid off every week at my job and we're one of the best in our business, and it ain't over yet. Wake up pal, if you really mean what you wrote...


On Jun 06 06:00 PM ebschor wrote:

> 37 bank failures is nothing compared to the number of failures during
> the S&L problems of yesteryear. I think we got out of this recession
> relatively unscathed given the fact only 37 banks (most of them small
> regional banks) failed.

Friday Bank Failure #37

All the big banks are bailed out before they fail, so there won't likely be another IndyMac or WaMu any time soon. The whole thing is such a giant disaster that we're all just in a daze...

Khazars: the rest of the story.

40,000 Jobs Lost as GM Becomes Biggest Ever U.S. Company Failure

The thing is, the world is so much more complex than adages like 'a weak dollar boosts exports, hence manufacturing'. Maybe so, maybe not.

The dollar is weak because our facade of well-armed, non-producer has been exposed. We'll never do anything more than pay interest on our debt in a likelihood. We can't buy anything except with fake money. The rest of the world is becoming more reluctant to buy our bonds. The world is in recession. Other than food, ammunition and DVD's what do we make people want? And everyone bootlegs our DVD's.


On May 31 10:11 AM Paul Killinger wrote:

> Not necessarily, Jack, but for sure the cars (except Ford). As the
> dollar weakens, we'll be doing alot more manufacturing once again.
> Just not in Detroit. Unless our govt. does something (else) stupid,
> that is, like cap and trade.

Big bank stocks will retreat, Whitney says, due to lack of earnings power - because they're not generating enough capital to grow their loan base. She repeats her call to "supercharge" healthier local banks so they can start lending.

Maybe citizens do not want to go into debt, but businesses need loans to do business. Many deal with local banks. Big banks don't make their money lending money to small businesses--they make their money in nefarious ways manipulating markets and dealing in the shadows. I think we all see that now.

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Sorry permabulls...we've been listening to your rhetoric for all these years and we're having a hard time maintaining our suspension of disbelief. It's not the end of the world, but it may be the winding down of the American Scheme. It's not that we don't want to believe, but how many times can you be completely wrong and still considered to be a reliable source of information? I'm sure the Aztecs thought they would recover from their downturn. Each crisis has been averted by going into greater debt to weather the storm. We might hobble through this too, but this is supposed to be a civilization--not just a generation.

I'm sure the golden vampires will do just fine, but for the millions of the rest of us, the golden age may be over.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

Here's some great examples of how we were all led to prosperity in the information age:

www.calculatedriskblog...

If only we had been watching QuRamer sooner...

On Mar 08 02:50 PM AJCMR wrote:

> Your right...if we had access to all of this great information...couldn't
> we have better foreseen the problem and corrected it in 2004/2005
> rather than let the problem perpetuate. I usually find SeekingAlpha
> quite helpful but this article doesn't pass the grade.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

Nice perspective, but you miss one thing: We may be approaching retirement age, but we have no delusions that we will ever be able to retire. Thanks for your thoughts.


On Mar 08 05:13 PM Chris-africa wrote:

> Who cares about the 1929 ,no time will be the same.But how do you
> get out of this small problem,this problem is the same in Europe.
> 1)A huge work force that`s about to retire.2)Real cost of manufacturing
> (without government kick backs)the highest in the world.3)Cost of
> living the highest in the world.4)The highest tax on work force in
> the world.5)The lowest production by work force size in the world.6)Government
> that is bankrupt. 7)The highest energy costs in the world...Now think
> for a minute what do we have that the world needs???What can we make
> money from???What do we have that the world can`t produce at half
> the price of us???Are you starting to see your problem!!In 1929 you
> had a lot to over the world.You people better come up with something
> good and fast because the world does not need the U.S and Europe`s
> pensioners they don`t make money they drain the Governments, sorry
> to say but you have some serious problems!!

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

Yes, we recovered from 1929 with incredible programs like the NRA and farming subsidies, along with the Hoot-Smalley tarrif Act. And confiscating all of the gold from private citizens for decades. In 1929 we hadn't learned how to manipulate statistics by dropping unemployed to the state of despair from the list and counting a skilled craftsman who becomes a Wail-mart greeter as fully employed. And seasonally adjusting inflation to make it say anything we want. And counting government spending as industrial growth. Derivatives many multiples of the GDP of this entire planet and the next three weren't around yet. Good for us, right?

I think most of the readers here have noted that we are in far more ill shape to weather the storm than we were the last time through. Internet? I would guess that for every unit of productivity gained by the Internet we lose two by employees wasting time getting side-tracked and sending each other funny e-mail attachments. Not convinced.

I have stock that I hope goes up in the future too, but that argument is so shallow, and these times so horrifying that suspension of disbelief is not invoked by the author's CNBC-like talking points.

What we can take solace in would be that if anyone stops taking dollars we can use military force to occupy their country and turn their leader over to an angry mob. How's that for a stimulus package?