Fund Insider

Ten ETF Trends for the Next Ten Years

401k using ETF is a simple matter of having firms like etrade or schwab get into the 401k plan administration market. Mutual fund firms established infrastructure to meet govt and employer needs long ago, pre-ETF days, and that infrastructure doesn't include executing stock trades, just mutual funds. If brokers make the same investment, so you can trade in your 401k, then the question will be whether employers and the govt, want to allow trading any stocks or limit to just a list of ETFs. Of course we all want flexibility, but some think the 401k is sacred and we should be protected from our own stupidity with rules and restrictions.
Hard to predict how & when govt policy based issues will be decided, could be 10 years, could be never....

Very Long-Term Asset Allocation Results

If you have an account at Vanguard, they not only give you above numbers, but will tell you exactly how your portfolio would fall into the above chart. This includes non-vanguard funds too.

Big Risks in Bonds and Bond Funds

Depends on your purpose for FI investments.
Older retirees in nearly 100% bonds should heed this warning.
If you are less than 60 years old, just using FI as part of overall
asset allocation, remember that the hedging effect of bonds is greater with longer term bonds than shorter. When equity markets decline, your short term bonds wont rally that much, maybe a bit.
Just as difficult to predict interest rates as the stock market, so
buy a mixture of long and short term bonds for diversification, and be prepared to have a bumpier ride on the longer term bonds.

Some Graham and Dodd Type Thoughts on Stocks vs. Bonds

I don't know how any professional investor can talk about dividends as having anything to do with the merits of one stock over another. Companies are not obligated to pay dividends, and when they fall on hard times, they cut the dividend. Stocks are not bonds, bond issuers have to default, a very serious step, compared to cutting a dividend. Stocks are NOT tips. If true that the real return is same as TIPS, nobody should buy any stocks at all, as you have more risk with no commensurate reward. Your entire analysis is based on the false views of dividends being like bond coupons, and pure index buy and hold equity investing returns (not even asset allocation trades).

I really want to believe you, so I can move all my stocks to TIPS
and sleep better at night, knowing I'll get the same return with less risk, but I don't think this is even close to true.

Key Asset Categories vs. Cash

So what is the conclusion from this data ?

Also, Junk behind cash ? Where did you get this data ?
My junk fund is way up.

Bond Market Outlook: Think Short Term

I own the recommended fund, but as part of a 3 piece income portfolio, including Vanguard Intermediate Investment Grade
and Vanguard Long Term Muni. All give high yields due to low expenses and great relative value for corporates and munis ever since the 2008 market turmoil. I tied up my longer dated assets in munis assuming a bit safer, credit wise. I also think a barbell approach makes sense in that you really don't know if we'll have inflation or deflation given the fragile state of the economy. Certainly the feds are doing all they can to avoid deflation, but Japan couldn't avoid it in the 90s, and there are many assets deflating here in the US. Locking up longer term rates makes sense in that scenario. It's all about diversifying risk so I'd not put all my fixed income into the recommended fund, though I do have a large portion in it.

Stewart vs. Cramer: Long-Term Asset Allocation Incorrectly Maligned

Kramer & others brought down Lou Rukeyser, the only useful TV pundit covering Wall Street. Rukeyser had self serving guests, but he made it pretty clear there are no black and white guarantees, and that the show was just as much light entertainment as it was about serious discussion of the unpredictable financial markets. Now we have screeming lunatics like Kramer, and young know-nothings like on CNBC. I'd no sooner listen to Carmen Wong Ulrich on CNBC.
Checkout her credentials : "Carmen received her bachelor's degree in psychology and art history from Fairfield University and her master's in psychology " and she writes "the money column for Glamour" per Wiki. The people that actually take Kramer or Ulrich seriously do not read Seeking Alpha, probably do not know what "Alpha" means.

Stewart vs. Cramer: Long-Term Asset Allocation Incorrectly Maligned

"Job of the financial media" ? Anyone who relies on media to make decisions is looking at the past, not the future. The BEST you can hope journalists to do is get the past right, and even that's not often the case. First, ever read a newspaper or magazine on a topic in which you are fairly expert ? Notice they usually make many mistakes ? Second, should you be surprised ? Those who can't do, write about doing...

On Mar 19 01:41 PM Bluenose wrote:

> While I completely agree with the time honored long term investing
> mantra, I have a contrary view of your critique of Stewart's show.
>
>
> The great ideal of long term investing is based on the integrity
> of financial professionals and them making decisions that enhance
> long term shareholder value. I think the job of the financial media
> "experts", and any journalist for that matter, is to act as a watchdog
> over the financial industry. When the corporate executives make short
> term decisions with the goal of enhancing their financial gain and
> the media supports them to gain access and enhance their short term
> ratings, investing for the long term becomes a losing proposition.
> Not unlike gambling in Vegas, the house wins and you lose.
>
> I think, that John Stewart was absolute correct to tie in long term
> investing in his critique. I feel that only by holding corporate
> executive's and the media's feet to the fire can we regain confidence
> in the value of long term investing.