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irongate

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  • Cadiz: Strong Sell On Project Failure, Insider Enrichment, And Bankruptcy, Price Target $0 [View article]
    I think the issue to debate here is not bickering about whether the EIR is correct or not. For the time being that EIR is the "science" of the project. It has stood up in a court of law. So unless the opposition throws down $3 million crackers to commission their own hydrology study I think we need to go with that.

    I think that the math of this project pretty much speaks for itself. There are already contracts and MOI's struck for $960/AF for water sales & $1500/AF for water storage. When you back that into a model one can justify a much higher stock price, perhaps with a MLP structure? or even private equity involvement from a Maquarie type player.

    Assuming (and its a BIG assumption) the BLM rules that no Fed permit is required, then I believe most of the other issues work themselves out:
    C6 water treatment is a negligible expense, and nobody knows how the ICS credits are going to work out considering they've never been used before. (ie; who gets them, MWD?). And as far as MWD goes.. I believe their charter says they must wheel water. so how will they justify their refusal to transport water in the court of public opinion during a drought? Me thinks that at some price an agreement is struck.

    There are many MANY moving parts to this story which is why it is so easy for bears as well as bulls to write convincing rhetoric to support their position. I don't much mind the shorts involved in the story b/c they provide valuable insight to the other side of the story keeping all the risks front and center. Either the investment works, or it doesn't.. we shall see soon enough.
    Apr 28, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vicor: Continued Growth Expected With Their New CHIP And SIP Products [View article]
    Not sure if you noticed john but Intel's Data Center Revenue is up a scorching 25% YoY comprised of 15% volume and 10% price. This might be a good read thru into VICR's quarter. Hopefully a sloppy open in coming days will afford us laymen an opportunity to add (hopefully the last time in the sub-teen area)
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Strong Buy On This Ridiculous And Short-Sighted Sell-Off [View article]
    Have you seen the term structure of crude several years out?? I wouldn't be so sure as you are that oil prices will shoot back up.
    Nov 17, 2014. 10:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vicor: Planned Revenue Growth Of 3X In 5 Years, Powered By New Products [View article]
    yes... across the board sequential growth across several metrics, backlog, gr margins, revenues..... As revenue ramps leverage kicks in. a year from now we will all be kicking ourselves that we didn't load up at sub $10 levels.
    Oct 21, 2014. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vicor: Planned Revenue Growth Of 3X In 5 Years, Powered By New Products [View article]
    Looks like INTC reported some nice server sales. I wonder if this translated into "Vicor Inside". Do you know John, if INTC rev matters that much (eps) to VICR at this point?

    Not that I expect this to be the fulcrum quarter, but we are awfully close... I am thinking I need to round out my position to what I want to own before Q4 eps announced. it's remarkable how well they've held up in this tape. Loos like they are still hiring for jobs too.
    Oct 17, 2014. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vicor: Planned Revenue Growth Of 3X In 5 Years, Powered By New Products [View article]
    Agree... this is a classic buy-side set-up. as the leverage in the business model becomes apparent (perhaps this or next earnings report) we should see a multi-day bid develop. If I recall correctly back during the tech boom the co really got screwed from the sell side analyst community... Thus we may never see analyst reports on the name which is fine and will provide more time to accumulate. Furthermore.. they are EXTREMELY protective of their IP. I recall on a plant tour a few years ago that there were certain areas that you were not allowed into. Frankly I wouldn't mind if it traded with a $7 handle between now and next earnings report so that I can add.
    Sep 8, 2014. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vicor: Planned Revenue Growth Of 3X In 5 Years, Powered By New Products [View article]
    I sure hope you are right. I am a long suffering VICR shareholder... have met mgt, been to the facility in MA, and their IP is fantastic. The problem has always been that the co needs to be run as a business.. not a neat science project. Your write up is spot on... lets start making some money on this!!
    Aug 25, 2014. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vicor Is Turning The Corner [View article]
    One of the most frustrating stocks I have ever owned. their IP is great but they just need to learn how to sell it better. I am tired of owning well funded science projects. Here's hoping tht their new sales team and distribution channel efforts will bear fruit.
    Mar 23, 2014. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forest Labs, Behind The Numbers [View article]
    at least FRX is not as blatant as IBM's smoke and mirrors earnings reports
    Jan 22, 2014. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira's Shorter Path To Profitability [View article]
    sounds quite interesting... like a picks and shovels play on the biotech space.
    Jan 17, 2014. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Facts About Plug Power [View article]
    I frankly can't believe they haven't banged out a secondary yet. I think management should be shown the door for that reason alone!!!!
    Jan 8, 2014. 05:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oversold Target Could Be A Winner This Holiday Season [View article]
    just curious on your take on JCP vs KSS. I think they serve the same demographic... JCP just reported 10% SSS comps for Nov. I don't care if JCP is giving stuff away... when one co is doing 4x more sales than their peers... well.. they are taking share. no?
    Dec 3, 2013. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA (BAC) and Societe Generale (SCGLF.PK) have appealed a judge's denial of a lawsuit in which they sought to reverse regulatory approval of MBIA's (MBI) restructuring in 2009. The bank's argue that overhaul harmed them as policy holders, and that the authorization "was arbitrary and capricious and an abuse of discretion." [View news story]
    no merit? BofA presented fraudulent mortgages to MBIA to insure. This is a FACT. And BofA's defense is that MBIA (as an institution) should have known that they were fraudulent. you say the smell of greed? how about the greed of BofA to collect mortgage fees by giving out mortgages to people that could never pay them back.... and then try to obtain insurance on them so that they could off-load them
    Mar 29, 2013. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nationstar Mortgage (NSM +3%) continues to fly higher, suggesting speculation it may not win the bidding for ResCap's servicing assets (or be forced to pay too high of a price) is just that. Nationstar has quickly raised $400M in two separate offerings over the past two weeks, apparently believing it is about to make a big acquisition. If it doesn't win, look out below. [View news story]
    agree on the look out below comment... but any drop with a 20 handle on it will be a good buy. rescap or no rescap.. the secular trend is in place and the few names in this space will prosper.. HLSS OCN NCT NSM WAC
    Oct 1, 2012. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: The Next Victim Of Political Change [View article]
    with all due respect.. i think the author has a basic misunderstanding of Agency mReits like NLY. the feds recent actions are bad for agency names like NLY.. as it could cause MORE refinancings. If berrnnanke was out... Qe would end.. the yield curve would steepen.. and that is nirvana for agency mREits
    Sep 19, 2012. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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