vlad

Growth in World Per-Capita Real GDP to Continue

What kind of comment is that? I travel the world a lot and I agree with Mark Perry. His argument is not that the world is a perfect place - he just says that world per capita income is much higher in 2008 than in 2002. And for the 2 particular regions where I have been extensively over this period - Eastern Europe and Latin America - I can tell you that this is definitely true. And one other thing - I would always take the "rotten democracies" of Latin America and India over the Chinese totalitarianism. The problem with heavy handed government control of economy and politics is that it creates the illusion of stability over short-term periods but long term is prone to huge blow-ups. I come from Eastern Europe and remember some Western leftists coming to communist countries in the 80's and marveling at the stability of daily life there as opposed to the "corrupt" western democracies. Like Nassim Talbe from "Black Swan" says: The more stable something appears, the more prone to a sudden collapse. Actually India is more stable than China politically exactly for this reason: I can tell you with certainty what the Indian poilitical system will be in 20 years - it will be some sort of democracy that it is today. But I am less certain what the Chinese political system will be in 20 years. Therefore India is more stable politically.



On Nov 30 09:42 PM thecadean wrote:

> What are you smoking??
> We will be lucky to go back to a flat line economy. I have traveled
> the world over three times in the last 5 years and continue to hold
> hope on the china econ. However, the rest of the world will simply
> rot. India and Latin America are dysfunctional democracies, US is
> still living in a Disney like economy (they still believe the dollar
> has some value, and Russia's oil bubble has popped (can you say Iceland.)
>
>
> With all respect... Dr. Perry, How long have you been working for
> the Bush administration?? Please step outside the office and take
> a walk with some of the real people. Like 20% of the Europeans that
> are seeking employment. We built and artificial economy based on
> a false belief that assets can substitute for manufacturing. Now
> that the real estate mark has returned to normal, we now must return
> to true growth not financially engineered growth. Aisa is the only
> market prepard to take the next step.