jerrydd

The Slippery Truth About Oil Price

A real progressive energy policy.

Put the real, full cost of fossil fuel in them, not in our income taxes, etc. The revenue from this goes 1/3 to tax cuts, help switching to alt fuels, transportation, eff, conservation and home/building eff/conservation and 1/3 to balance the budget the fossil fuel have caused.

Next remove all subsidies except low cost loans for RE, EV's, PHEVs, Eff ICEs and NG truck conversions and business start ups.

They have no problem with safe, cost effective nukes. They are just too costly. Most RE is 1/3 the price.

The above will cause 10 million direct and indirect jobs costing the gov little, even make a profit to pay down the deficit. The great thing is most of the money will be paid for by OPEC, etc as the price of oil would drop, paying most of it.

Drilling won't do much good as demand would far outstrip it. Better to leave some for the kids.

This will make a stable, long term lower energy cost for a good economy vs what repubs have done, dig us deeper while supporting Iran, Russia, oil dictators and terrorists with more oil money.

To me the above is patriotic, punishing our enemies while we get richer, stronger. And it's fiscally conservative.

Vs the repubs which make us broke, make oil wars and cause high oil prices that help our enemies. What would you call someone like that? Traitor?

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

> Nov 20 10:56 AM John Petersen wrote:

> Jerrydd, I typically try to ignore you but this time you've carried
> the distortions a bit too far. So I will clarify a couple of points:
>>
>
> 1. Nissan is going to sell the Leaf the same way Mattel sells toys
> - BATTERIES NOT INCLUDED. It is then going to lease the batteries> for a supplemental monthly charge that approximates the cost a user would pay to buy gasoline. Unless they have kick-ass financing terms,

JD I've not heard that from them and do not expect that pricing. Sounds like another oil company PR stunt.
But the battery costs them nothing as the battery tax credit pays for it as the credit goes to the battery owner. So I expect the lease price will be well under gasoline prices. As an EV goes 3x's as far on the same energy vs an ICE, this really isn't hard. It also cut the battery risk to the EV owner and the company if one battery doesn't work out, not uncommon in EV's and new tech.

I'm sure too they will let you buy your own if you insist. And as I said, Nissan does have 15 yrs lithium battery/EV experience.

> they may well lose money on the battery leasing. Their principal
> perceived market is Europe where gas prices are typically well over
> $5.

JD Yet I don't think so with a $7500 battery tax credit. They could charge $.02-.03/mile for it and make a good profit. Far below ICE costs. And once the interstates have battery swap stations, they will have unlimited range. I just don't see the costs you do.

>
> 2. The Roadmap talks about two PUBLIC charging stations per GEV
> that the proponents want included in the utility rate base. It says
> those public charging stations will cost up to $5,000 each. The cost
> of a box you can hang on the wall of your garage has no bearing on
> the cost of running cables to the curb and installing an all-weather
> electrical device that can stand up to the vandalism, abuse and neglect
> that all public installations suffer.

I use to be an electrician and they cost no where near that. A 4 unit one costing under $2k or under $500/EV is far more likely. I have seen the various companies doing them and most quoted less than $500/EV.


>
> 3. Everybody wants to argue about the availability of lithium and
> whether new mines can be developed somewhere in the world. There
> is no question in my mind that they can. There is also no question
> in my mind that they have not been. The real issues are all of the
> other high purity commodities and the cost of special purpose manufacturing
> equipment. There is a reason that lithium-ion battery factories have
> capital costs of 1x anticipated sales while lead-acid factories have
> capital costs of 0.2x anticipated sales.

Why would they open mines fast when it will be 3 yrs at least before that many batteries will be made, lithium needed.
And Lithium cost is minor as it is what, .5-1lb/kwhr of lithium? Just not that much needed and many mines already working already to supply what we need.

> 4. The shortage of orders comes from the inescapable fact that GEVs
> are basically science fair projects and nobody on the planet has
> any relevant experience with them. You may think spending $40,000
> to finance somebody else's dream is a good idea. I'd rather spend
> $20,000 to get back and forth from work.

There is no shortage of orders. Tesla's production was gobbled up in 4 days at $100k each!! The only shortage is EV's on the market. As soon as any decent ones are announced, the order book fills. The Nissan Leaf already has 100k EV orders, is that enough for you?

Chevy Volt, Ford Focus EV's already have filled order books and still not coming out for a yr!!. They are no lack of orders, only EV's.

>
> I'm not entirely sure why you bother to read and comment on my articles
> since our views are diametrically opposed, but I know my life would
> be more pleasant if you would stop.

JD Everyone needs someone to keep them honest. You like to cherry pick elites, papers, others who have agendas that are similar to your own vs me who lives, uses EV's in real time. You know that EV experience you talk about people need.

I've been watching, using EV's, batteries for 20 yrs now and seen it all from hype battery companies to lying car, oil companies who hire PR firms to put out lies about them because it changes their business model. But that changed last yr with $147 oil and next yr EV's will finally be available at reasonable prices.
> .

Invest in Clean Energy Transmission

While technically correct, in real life the grid will go to low cost. And low cost is home size RE from wind, solar, CHP, CSP, etc and industrial waste heat/cogen.

What these have in common is they save so much to utility customers who pay 2x's what the utility's pay to cover profit, expenses.

This works out to a 2-3x's as little payback time.


Also many small units average out nicely in output so no big crash when the solar/wind farm loses wind or sun. Home storage is not that expensive and can pay it's way by selling high and charging low at night. It's under $100/kw for lead batteries. These last 10 yrs so $10kw/yr, just not that much.

But EV's will do a lot of grid leveling in about 10 yrs as each has a 50-200kw inverter ready to supply peak power. 100kw's is good enough for 50-100 homes, so it won't take that many EV's to make a big difference.

Charged off peak/nighttime, programed to be full whenever needed by timer or cellphone, EV's are the key to a solid, stable low cost grid combining RE, other electric sources.

For the money, material the big grid, which mostly is just so big money investors can get rich on RE, could instead be used for home size RE, eff/conservation, it would be far less expensive, increase homeowners wealth, spending power far better than distant solar, wind farms.

But investors don't make money off of small RE so we get proposals like this..

4 Cheap Japanese Stocks

Nissan is about to do extremely well as they bring out Electric cars the same price as a regular car next yr just as gas hits $4-5'gal. They have lots of EV experience already in Japan and 10 yrs ago with a US lithium battery EV fleet in Cal.

Ford too will be ready with 6 EV's and PHEV's that can ramp up, something the other companies can't, over 2 yrs starting with the Focus EV and the Transit small commercial van EV next yr.

Sadly other car companies are only doing experiment/pilot programs that can't be increased fast for at least 3 yrs.

As far as I know, every decent built EV has sold before they were built because there is so much demand.

Which Sector Will Be the Next Decade's Home Run?

But John Galt, wasn't Carter right about energy?

Didn't Clinton increase CAFE standards, balance the budget? Just what did repubs do?

Hasn't oil caused 3 recessions since him he warned about? If we had listened to him and become energy independent, we wouldn't be in this mess, not in 2 oil wars, not losing $500B/yr in imported oil costs and deeply in debt to pay oil subsidies to big oil, Iran, Russia, oil dictators?

Oil and energy is the next big thing though oil only for about 5-7 yrs until the world switches to less expensive RE, flattening out it's price, before dropping in constant $.

I'd invest in Ford, Nissan as both are going to hit the market with EV's, PHEV's just as oil hits $4-5/gal late next yr.

FPL is deep in RE and down now because of the recession hitting it's utility part. But it has a large upside in both utility and RE profits.

Investing in ETF's on RE is not good as too many will go down. Best to pick good companies and ride them up.

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

A twisted interpretation of the report.

Considering Nissan has just announced that they are going to sell their Leaf 5 seat EV for the same price of an ICE version!! Kind of kicks your economic argument in the pants. There are no reason for EV's to cost more than ICE's do. Soon in fact because they are more simple, will cost less.

How Nissan is doing it is leasing the batteries on a per mile basis with battery swapping for unlimited range. As the CEO said on Charlie Rose, PBS the other day, they are going that way so to incorporate new battery tech as it comes online and cut customer's risk to Zero.

And he said that lithium is the battery and they have tested it on the road for many yrs. They did a fleet of them in the 90's.

As for subsidies, that is already there. All they seem to be saying in the report is charging stations, regs, laws to make it work. For instance in many places only utilities can sell electricity.

I noticed that you didn't include subsidies for oil, fossil fuels which are many times greater.

Your statement that charging stations cost $ $6-10k/vehicle is a joke. The new SAE standard 70 amp/240vac boxes only cost at most $500 each. All it is is a power drop and a stove/dryer size cord, plug. Just not a big deal.

There is plenty of lithium for now and before we need more new sources already found in the US, many other places. As for why no viable recycling of Lithium is not being done is it's too cheap!!! There is so much supply it's just not worth it yet. If it ever does become in short supply or the price goes up, then it will be done.

Your premise that building EV's, PHEV's will keep hybrids from being built is also wrong. There is no shortage of batteries, the only shortage is battery orders, No? There are over 100 lithium, other battery companies just waiting for orders. Not a shortage to me.

Now add Ford over the next 2 yrs will bring out large numbers of EV's like their Focus, Transit Van and plug in hybrid versions of the Escape, Fusion, ect that with Nissan, will hit just as oil will hit $4-5/gal again makes them great investments vs others who can't ramp up fast to take advantage of that spike.

Obama's Incorrect Thinking on the Deficit

Tax cuts for the rich who pay 33% lower tax % vs a middle class who pay 33% more.

Tax cuts have never worked well and Bush's ones were a lot to get us in this mess, cutting taxes while running 2 wars!!

Obama wants a far more simple income tax. He'd, I'd put a tax on fossil fuels so they pay their full cost. Then with the revenue, a tax cut to offset the cost to lower income people, help switching to more eff, EV's, PHEV cars, NG trucks. This makes a fair market so other fuels can be profitable without subsidies either like oil, coal have.

Next make $100k start up loans for RE, MC size cabin EV's, NG truck conversion shops and other good business plans through the SBA, not banks.

Next loans to buy such equipment and home repairs, eff upgrades with them paid off from the energy savings.

The loans would mostly be paid back, interests, income taxes from the ones that made it plus lower repair, war, trade deficit, pollution, unemployment as these would make 10 million direct and indirect jobs. So no net cost to the deficit. But that's not what can be got through congress because of repubs and oil, coal state dems.

Oil: Ready to Break Higher?

If oil breaks higher then the economy will go down, cutting oil prices. OPEC would be smart to lower oil prices so the economy recovers or their $ won't be worth much.

Anyone who thinks oil will go up for more than 6-7 yrs is in for a surprise as that will just make the switch to alt fuels faster.

I drive my EV's everyday and once they become common, and they will because small ones cost less than a bus to run.

Nissan just said their coming next yr 5 seat EV won't cost more than an ICE version. Ford too will be ready to ramp up EV's quickly vs other car companies that can't for 2-3 more yrs.

Energy Watch: Solve for California

Other than more, better rail, this article was bad.

First on RE, they have a great program paid for in a minor utility tax. Oil is rarely used to generate power.

Cal has about the most eff fleet in the US. Switching over trucks to NG and cars to Hybrids, PHEV's and EV's are the future surface fleet fuels. And Cal is the leader in them now.

The fiscal problems are political with republicans doing the worst by not letting anything get done raising taxes where needed. I don't disagree much of Cal needs reform in the public sector like health, education, but it's repubs that are not allowing it.

Chinese Wind Power Plant Coming to U.S. Soil

Davewmart and All,

You use the price of these units but most are going for 40% of their costs. Most large windgens are only $1.2k/kw vs these at $2.5k/kw. So use the lower number of average US wind farms.

I believe this high price is a scheme to defraud the Gov from more grant money and guaranty their massive profits.

And it's home wind that is far more profitable since costs are far less and save 2x's more as the utility doubles it's costs of it's energy sources to sell to you.

So at $1.5k/kw wind even at 30% capacity beats nuke by 2'x easily vs home/small local wind and they last 50 yrs.

Chinese Wind Power Maker A-Power to Set Up Factory in U.S.

I can see it now, Chinese bosses making Mexican workers in the US be like slaves!! They will have to completely change the way they handle workers or they are doomed to fail.

What is needed is a worldwide tariff on Chinese goods of 30% until they raise they currency by that much. It is killing anyone from unfair competition and not allowing their people lower costs from outside China.

Is the U.S. Headed Down the Same Path as Japan?

Several details. The banks have or will receive 2 yrs of mortgage payments making their losses much lower and RE prices have come back up in most markets.

Now add we can now let banks fail as we are no longer on the edge of a depression and things are not as bad as thought by the author.

What is needed now is a good job program by lending small business the money needed for start ups, etc would increase market values by making the economy better.

Here is mine.


Here is how to do this better for jobs. We can have a stimulus that costs almost nothing to the taxpayer, in fact paid a lot by Iran, Russia, oil dictators!!

How is start up loans for RE companies and energy eff ones. Let most anyone with a good business plan through the SBA get start up loans to build or install homes. small business size windgenerators, solar CSP unit, CHP, small lightweight, aero 3 wheel EV's, etc. Then loans to buy, install, etc these.

Loans for home, building eff upgrades from windows, insulation, etc are next. This would put construction, material workers back to work.

Banks have shown they won't loan so other methods may be needed.

All these can be paid for in energy savings in 5 yrs so no new income costs either. This will create about 3 million jobs directly and probably 6 million indirectly of people supporting them.

Next is a fossil fuel tax to pay their full cost of the direct, indirect subsidies we already pay in our income tax, health care, etc. it's time those who make, benefit from those costs to pay them It should be a $1.50/gal on oil and about double the price of coal.

But you say a tax will kill the economy. Not if it's put in over 2 yrs at 4% each month and loans given to buy more eff cars, etc to cut people's costs. Switching trucks, semi's to NG is very cost effective now being under 50% of the cost of diesel/gasoline. This can in 5 yrs cut imported oil needs.

The beauty of this is oil, coal will drop in price making Iran, Russia, oil dictators pay most of the oil tax, coal is only 25% of your electric bill so it won't go up much.

But new, more eff cars, trucks, EV's, PHEV's and mass transit will create more new jobs too.

The fossil fuel tax revenue, 1/3 would go to a tax cut so those people paying it have the extra money needed if they continue to use the same amount or better, use less and have extra income, the more likely outcome. 1/3 to to help switching to more eff cars, trucks, homes, buildings and 1/3 to balance the budget fossil fuels have been a large part in making.

So this program would have a net increase of about 8-10 million jobs of both direct and supporting those who have the new jobs, solve our imported oil problem, let us leave the Persian gulf between the 2 are about $1T/yr in a few yrs if we don't, stop subsidizing our enemies, oil/coal corporations and balance the budget.. All at little cost to the gov, in fact get rid of our debt on our children and make our country strong again.

Or we will be broke, at war, our enemies strong and we will be weak. To me it's the only real patriotic way to go

Cooper: Turnaround Coming for Natural Gas

Report spammers like Ecup and financeopinionss.blogs and others as abuse under the report abuse link and we can drive them away. Don't bother just asking them to stop as they won't.

Cooper: Turnaround Coming for Natural Gas

I've seen evidence NG is being sold under production costs in most of the NG shale plays which would make them not a good investment. They took the financial statements and compared them to output and production costs were $5-8/mmbtu and now selling for $4/mmbtu by overstating reserves vs actual historical output. Not good!

Other details is the old rigs were dropped because the new ones produced far more NG than the old ones/$. Obviously production has increased.

With the getting stronger El Nino the winter is likely to be warm. Lucky for us in Fla, Gulf it cuts hurricanes too.

Oil sands production costs is close to $30/bbl according to the producers, not $80. But they are limited to what they can produce so not a market mover.

Recovery Indicators: Finding Hope in Energy Trends

The EIA report is a joke. Just where is this increased oil going to come from?

China will get little oil from the Iraq deal as it's only 2% which is why no one else bid on it or others there.

As the oil is close to the surface little steel is needed.

The Iraqi gov isn't going to give anything away as that would be less for them to steal themselves!!

The Author needs to dig a little deeper than the headlines.