Kartikey

The Forces of Deflation Are Stronger Than People Realize

I agree with both of you. I have initiated one short position in TLT. so far I am wrong in timing it. However I believe with Deflation being the primary concern TLT run can go longer. As and when SNP bottoms, I think around 600.. Inflation will start taking the center stage and then TLT will be start fading... That may start as early as third quarter of 2009.

By no means I am an expert nor I do I claim to be one. I am a infant on the block and appreciate an opportunity share my views.

Thank you!

A New Bull Market Is Born

In short term market is boucing back from oversooooold situation. However if you look at all time graph of S&P, you will notice that it got some support at 777 (50% retracement from all time high). Any major trend setter has 2 points of support/resistance (50% and 61.8% retracement). 50% as first line of defence and 61.8% as final chance to change the trend. SNP is yet to touch 61.8%, which is 600. Make or break of 600 will decide how SNP will be shaped. Also learned from MV that all BEARS have gave up around 60% retracement from all time high... in case of SNP it is 600 (60% of all time high- 1500)

my 2 cents...