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  • Tesla Signature Model X Pricing: Why It's Good News For Investors [View article]
    You pose an interesting question in a roundabout way: Is there any price sensitivity for potential buyers of the Model X?

    In the short-run, which is where it probably matters for now, I would say no so this is a smart strategy from a financial point of view. In the long run, if it stays at this level it will be a problem for longer term demand - price and demand tend be correlated. It depends on whether the goal is to sell more units or a higher profit per unit.

    I am not sure TSLA is set up to be a lower volume, break-even producer.
    Sep 2, 2015. 10:03 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]

    I don't think we should ignore it at all in the same way your info is older and the one above is newer.

    The short-term ingrained "Buy The Dip" mentality is still in the market psychology. I would look for a sustained and meaningful super-bearish trend in any of the major indicators (AAII, this BAML thing, Investors Intelligence) before declaring a bottom is in. The extremes matter - your link also proves it.

    When you get in at extreme bearish readings there is a good chance you are buying in at a near-term bottom - strong outflows are a contrarian indicator and vice-versa. The problem right now is that it looks like the trend has turned short-term bearish which means we are all swimming against the tide if we get in too early and many, many participants are still very bullish which means a downward spiral can escalate quickly.

    Ed Yardeni produces a weekly technical indicators doc that I really like for stuff like this:

    I wouldn't recommend doing anything if you don't have to but if it makes you (the generic "you") nervous then you probably shouldn't be in the market.

    Good luck!
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 2015 Plan Turns To 2016 [View article]
    $132,000 starting price for the Model X? Is that serious? Can you say bad-a*s Aztrek?

    Thanks to OutForNow for the link:
    "Tesla Model X Signature Series: 240 Miles Range, 60 in 3.8 seconds, $132,000"
    A new Signature series Model X will set owners back anywhere from $132,000 (+1,200 DOC) to $144,000. A Signature Model X required a $40,000 deposit, as opposed to a $5,000 security for a ‘regular’ X.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]

    Panic? Really?

    This is a measure you have quoted previously, more like greed. This is not the makings of a bottom yet in my opinion.

    "Everyone just piled into stocks at their fastest pace in years"

    Myles Udland

    3h 2,076 2
    Read more:

    Investors piled into stocks at a record pace last week.

    According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the firm's equity clients moved money into stocks at the fastest pace since at least 2008 during a week that saw markets crater to start the week but ultimately finish in the green.

    The firm's clients were net buyers of $5.6 billion of US stocks from August 24 to August 28. Though BAML noted that no single client group — which covers hedge funds, institutional investors, private investors, and corporations — saw a record flow relative to its own history.

    Read more:
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Netflix's original content plug the gap between Epix and Disney? [View news story]
    This is gonna piss a lot of people off - just read the comments on the blog.

    As a subscriber that loves Netflix it really annoys me - what they should be doing is both maintaining and expanding content not reducing it and then trying to spin it as something good for the customer.

    Admit the obvious instead of lying that this is somehow an improvement over the prior experience - that drives people insane all out of proportion to the reality of the actual change.

    Arrogance and taking your customers for granted is usually the sign of impending problems.
    Aug 31, 2015. 03:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelez International initiates start-up program [View news story]
    Peak bubble moment!
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times downgrades Adam Jonas [View news story]

    I think there is a basic misconception about brokers that people keep missing: they own stock and other assets that they trade for profit. In other words they are trying to sell you stuff at a higher price that they bought at a lower price whether or not it's any good. Think used car salesmen and you won't get too upset :) They are just doing their jobs.

    Is it any wonder they promote the heck out of anything they own in addition to anything they underwrite?

    Follow the money!
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:57 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Entering Ugly Recession, Not Just A 'Hard Landing?' [View article]
    Can you export Deflation?
    Aug 30, 2015. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Peripheral Colds Caused A U.S. Recession Flu? [View article]
    "When the yield curve flattens meaningfully, I will become much more cautious."

    How is it possible for this to happen with ZIRP?

    No academic forecasting model on earth could or would ever predict a recession with ZIRP, so what real value do they have in telling us that according to the model one plus one equals one?

    It's a tautology!

    What you are saying is that no recession could possibly occur without inversion so why not just leave ZIRP in place forever?

    Presto, no more recessions!

    And I am not predicting recession just commenting upon the absurdity of relying upon a model that can't be invalidated until it is. That's the essence of complacency.
    Aug 30, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "The Chinese threat has been examined and the effects analyzed. The impact is limited."

    "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency. We will continue to monitor this situation closely."
    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
    The economic outlook
    Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress
    March 28, 2007

    Seriously, how could we possibly know the impact of China on the world economy this early in the process?

    The deflationary impact of a rapidly slowing China could be massive and we are already facing big deflationary forces worldwide. The opening quote above certainly suggests a level of complacency all out of proportion to the risks in my opinion.
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting This Bull Market Rally To Continue? Don't Hold Your Breadth [View article]

    It's funny but people forget that originally reported GDP was revised UP (2.5%) in August 2008 while in hindsight we were already in recession and that number ended up going down, down, down!

    The recession in the reported numbers only shows up after it has happened - the history of so-called real time data is pretty mixed at best for an economy as complex as ours.

    It's like the parable of the blind men and the elephant.

    I am always interested in the divergence between GDI and GDP because it was posited that GDI is more predictive of the state of the economy at turning points whereas GDP is far less reliable and subject to far more revision. The recent GDI numbers did not confirm the recent GDP figures but are certainly not suggesting a recession just very weak growth.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Speaks - We Learn Irrationality Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria' [View article]

    I think you are generally right on the comments but you can find evidence of malinvestment in the stock market right now because of ZIRP which could be the catalyst for the next decline. The reach for yield and the "FED Put" is fomenting the same greedy behavior you are describing in the past with the exception that it is being led by the professionals and the "smart money" this time around.

    A bust in the market won't hurt mainstreet as much so the implications aren't as far reaching as a housing bust but I do think there are elements of reckless behavior occurring now.

    The only caveat is that maybe some of the air will be let of out of the enthusiasm bubble by recent events and we just have a go nowhere market for a few years. I doubt it though!

    “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

    ― Yogi Berra
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S.'s Debt 'Supercycle' Ended In 2007... [View article]

    Awesome comment. Essentially the FED seems to have shifted its mandate to include Fiscal policy in addition to monetary policy to try to counteract the forces you are describing here.

    The FED was never intended to be a political animal but it certainly has become one!
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Felix Zulauf: Bottom isn't in yet [View news story]

    The level of bullishness still left in this market and based upon commentary above suggests that optimism is still way too high for a bottom to have formed but only time will tell.

    You can always find a quote from any guru that contradicts or undermines their position bullish or bearish - that's the nature of making predictions. No one is 100% accurate.

    Trotting out all the dumb things that were said by pundits in the last down cycle ("subprime will be contained") only goes to affirmation bias one way or another. Attacking the messenger can be useful if it makes sense but the correlation between past commentary and current conditions are probably spurious at best.

    To be a good investor you only have to be right most of the time and put your money where your conviction is. Felix has had a tremendous track record of performance even while he has been wrong.

    When it comes to investing, I think you are better served by attacking the argument and ignoring the messenger.

    “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

    ― Yogi Berra
    Aug 29, 2015. 11:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sky Seems To Be Falling. What Now? [View article]

    Great comment. Like so many people who have an alarm system in their house I bought mine after I was robbed :)
    Aug 27, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment