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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Syrian Crisis Mean For Stocks? [View article]

    It's sad that this true:

    "However, when you look at historical equity returns following the outbreak of a war, you'll find the wars seem to have a slightly positive impact on the equity markets."

    As investors we have to be cold and calculating but it sure doesn't change the fact that is a morally bankrupt proposition to benefit from death and destruction.

    I wish it weren't so!
    Sep 8, 2013. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Syrian Crisis Mean For Stocks? [View article]

    Obama. Barack Obama.

    The only* Nobel Peace Prize Winner in history with a license to kill!


    * I guess with the exception of Yasser Arafat which only goes to show how stupid this entire idea of a Peace Prize is.
    Sep 8, 2013. 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kerry: International support growing for action against Syria [View news story]
    This is the same group that said the murder of our Ambassador in Benghazi on September 11, 2012 was the result of a spontaneous protest for a YouTube video that no one has actually seen. According to them it was a coincidence that it happened on that date. Yet here we are a full year later and we still don't know what happened even though there was real-time observation of the entire event.

    Yet somehow we have "iron-clad" evidence that the intelligence on this issue is perfect (even though no one on our end saw it happen) in almost no time at all. Really?

    Why should we believe them?
    Sep 8, 2013. 10:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Tesla Motor's Gargantuan Battery Supply Problem Into Perspective [View article]
    All John has done is expanded upon and explained Elon's broad comments on the issue which is why all the negative vitriol is truly extraordinary. He is actually providing all of the Tesla investors a very valuable service.

    The video is less than 2 minutes and it is quite amazing.

    I love this quote: "This problem will be solved one way or another."

    This is truly a faith-based cult stock!
    Musk: 'Truly gargantuan battery factory'
    Thu 22 Aug 13 | 03:00 PM ET
    Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk discusses the need to create what he calls a "truly gargantuan battery factory of mind boggling size." With CNBC's Phil LeBeau.
    Sep 7, 2013. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls misses estimates [View news story]
    Uncle B,

    No one apparently noticed that Q1 2011 was revised to NEGATIVE 1.3%!

    The third revision at the time was positive 1.9%. The total slowdown in growth rate from Q4 2010 was over 4% which is frickin freaky outside of a recession. I am not aware of that kind of negative rate of change occurring outside of a recession at a prior time.

    So we won't really know what's happening at this moment until a couple of years from now given the standard deviations on these numbers we could be way higher or way lower than we are today.

    Jobless claims suggest strengthening but the massive misses in durables, new home sales, and IP suggest weakness. Add the slowdown in corporate profit growth and revenues to the mix and it suggests weakness not strength but we'll know the full truth of it at some point in the future.
    Sep 7, 2013. 01:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Harper to accept emissions reduction targets to win Keystone approval [View news story]

    "...makes you wonder what their agenda really is"

    It's actually quite simple: first population control and second population reduction. To hardcore environmentalists humans are a "cancer" upon the earth. Making energy abundant, cheap, and affordable would only serve to spread the "cancer" so they are entirely opposed to any breakthrough that would accomplish this. As you may know, nuclear energy has no carbon emissions. Even hydro-electric is not considered "clean" because of the dams used to generate the water necessary to make it cost-effective.

    There is literally no way to appease them so why even bother trying.

    Unsurprisingly they refuse to do the honorable thing and kill themselves which would be the most effective way in which they themselves could reduce the "carbon footprint" of humankind.

    Sep 7, 2013. 01:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls misses estimates [View news story]

    "By and large, the balance sheets have been rebuilt. "

    For whom?

    " A Tale of Two Recoveries: Wealth Inequality After the Great Recession"

    Blog Post by: Benjamin Landy, on August 28, 2013
    "The inequality of the economic recovery has been even worse. According to a Pew Research Center analysis, every dollar and more of aggregate gains in household wealth between 2009 and 2011 went to the richest 7 percent of households. Aggregate net worth among this top group rose 28 percent during the first two years of the recovery, from $19.8 trillion to $25.4 trillion. The bottom 93 percent, meanwhile, saw their aggregate net worth fall 4 percent, from $15.4 trillion to $14.8 trillion. As a result, wealth inequality increased substantially over the 2009–2011 period, with the wealthiest 7 percent of U.S. households increasing their aggregate share of the nation’s overall wealth from 56 percent to 63 percent. (See Figure 1.)"

    This is an economy that is currently benefiting the rich disproportionately.

    Are you a proponent of trickle down economics?
    Sep 6, 2013. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls misses estimates [View news story]

    Just FYI, statistics are generally misleading in isolation which is why it is helpful to have a compendium of confirming facts.

    I don't read the HuffPo but this was the first link on google dated August 22nd, 2013:
    "Median Household Income Dropped 4 Percent Since The End Of The Great Recession: Report "
    WASHINGTON — The average American household is earning less than when the Great Recession ended four years ago, according to a report released Wednesday.

    U.S. median household income, once adjusted for inflation, has fallen 4.4 percent in that time, according to the report from Sentier Research. The report is based on an analysis of Census Bureau data."

    It appears that all of the income gains you reference have gone to the top 1% in this country which is ironic given who the President happens to be.
    Sep 6, 2013. 04:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls misses estimates [View news story]
    These are some bizarre numbers. Revised lower for previous months?

    U6 did drop a lot from June so that definitely is a positive.

    Weird given the noticeable drop in jobless claims.
    Sep 6, 2013. 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Bulletin: Acampora Looking For 23% Correction [View article]
    Here's the link to the WSJ blog that tom_t mentioned:
    Godfather of Charts Turns Bearish; Targets Dow 12000
    “I’ve been bullish for over four years, so for me making this call, it’s important,” said Mr. Acampora, director of technical research at Altaira, Ltd.
    Mr. Acampora adds that the bear market he is anticipating is a “cyclical” one, meaning it’s likely to last just two or three months. Over the much longer term, he’s still as bullish as he’s ever been.

    “I’m still a long-term bull. We’re in an environment of a long-term secular bull market, that could last two decades,” Mr. Acampora said. “I’m just worried about the next few months.

    “If the Dow does drop to his 12000 target, it could create a “great buying opportunity,” he said. “But I’ll make that call when we get there. There’s no guarantee 12000 will hold.”
    Sep 4, 2013. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Bulletin: Acampora Looking For 23% Correction [View article]

    Doesn't that change in position make it notable?

    Couldn't get more bullish than he was two months ago so it would be pretty bad if he didn't make his change in opinion broadly known especially if people were following his advice.

    Wouldn't it actually be worse for him to believe this privately and keep silent publicly?

    Whether you believe him or not it does take a certain amount of courage to change your opinion so dramatically whether you agree with him or not.

    He uses technical analysis so from his standpoint the tea leaves and the planetary alignment or sunspots are now out of favor.

    When a perma-bull like him turns bearish perhaps it is a good sign.

    Sep 4, 2013. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hindenburg Omen Market Crash Ahead... Ahoy! [View article]

    Of the two points the second one makes sense.

    The "," before an "and" is called the "Serial or Oxford" comma:
    "In punctuation, a serial comma or series comma (also called Oxford comma and Harvard comma) is a comma placed immediately before the coordinating conjunction (usually and, or, or nor) in a series of three or more terms. For example, a list of three countries might be punctuated either as "Portugal, Spain, and France" (with the serial comma), or as "Portugal, Spain and France" (without the serial comma).[1]"

    In my Jesuit highschool this was the comma form we were taught to use.

    I didn't know it was controversial until I started reading about it.

    Sep 4, 2013. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hindenburg Omen Market Crash Ahead... Ahoy! [View article]

    You should have read it - it's about why its bunk for the average investor.
    Sep 3, 2013. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Secular Bull And Bear Markets [View article]

    The definition of Secular is meant to define the long term trend over an extended period of time usually 10 or more years (up/down) and then the label is put on it. According to Doug's chart above, stocks were worth less in 1950 then they were in 1930 which defines Secular Bear. The bottom was reached and then the bull took over driving the price above the 1930 level finally in around 1960 which indicated a Secular Bull.

    To your point, in practical terms, we have no clue where we are in an episode within the broader trend. Some of the best bull market episodes have occurred within Secular Bear Markets which is why market timing has always been such an intriguing concept :)
    "Definition of 'Secular Market'
    A market driven by forces that could be in place for many years, causing the price of a particular investment or asset class to rise or fall over a long period of time. In a secular bull market, strong investor sentiment drives prices higher, as there are more net buyers than sellers. In a secular bear market, weak sentiment causes selling pressure over an extended period of time.
    Investopedia Says
    Investopedia explains 'Secular Market'
    Secular markets are typically driven by large-scale national and worldwide events, which occur in combination. For example, wars, demographic/population shifts and governmental/political policies are all events that could drive secular markets.

    A secular bull market will have bear market periods within it, but it will not reverse the overlying trend of upward asset values. For example, most economists agree that U.S. equities were in a secular bull market from about 1980 to 2000, even though the stock market crash of 1987 occurred within the same time period. The losses from that bear market period were quickly recovered, and the market indexes continued to rise over the next 13 years. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) rose from 120 to nearly 1,500 during this secular bull market.
    Sep 2, 2013. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Expect Volatility, Not Clarity [View article]

    I was not referring to the current period or 2012. My comments were focused on the slowdown in Q1 2011 as I stated above when the rate of growth slowed to negative 4.1%.

    No expert at that time even came close to forecasting that horrible a print and in fact the overwhelming consensus was that growth had accelerated so my point is how could so many experts have been so wrong?

    The contemporaneous data at the time was fairly robust as reported which completely contradicts the final result.

    What was about that period, which in my mind is fairly recent, that everyone missed?
    Sep 2, 2013. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment