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  • Treasury prices cruise along as China dumps stash  [View news story]
    Funny what's been lost during this period is the availability of high quality liquid bonds despite all the "money printing". Demand for treasuries is high.
    Jan 11, 2016. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Drops 6% This Week - 'Irrationality' Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria'  [View article]

    Like that analysis. Could be a Kondratieff winter ahead ;)
    Jan 10, 2016. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Drops 6% This Week - 'Irrationality' Isn't Always Associated With 'Exuberance' And 'Euphoria'  [View article]
    Something I always find amusing about market analysis can be summarized by this truism of my own making:

    "When markets move up they are being rational but when they move down it is irrational!"

    The corollary is:

    "Markets are a future indicator of the direction of the economy when they are moving up but the converse is not true."

    Maybe the "Market" alternates between periods of rationality and irrationality but the idea that you can place any type of label on the move strikes me as being subjective, bordering on biased.

    You can sum up the overall market analysis by saying:

    "US Markets have shown an upward bias over a long period of time alternating with periods that include very large declines."

    How you choose to handle those declines is what defines a buy and holder or a market timer.

    Which one are you?
    Jan 10, 2016. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Buy The Dip?  [View article]
    " Of the various explanations for group polarization, the most relevant involves a potentially insidious effect of confirmation itself. Once people discover that others agree with them, they become more confident -- and then more extreme.

    In that sense, confirmation bias is self-reinforcing, producing a vicious spiral. If people begin with a certain belief, and find information that confirms it, they will intensify their commitment to that very belief, thus strengthening their bias."

    I believe that describes the thinking of those who believe in man-made global warming or any other faith driven venture.

    Jan 10, 2016. 01:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #91  [View instapost]
    Hi, just saw this today and for those of you who follow Ralph Acampora you might find it useful:
    "Ralph Acampora: Raise Cash and Sit on the Sidelines for Now
    Jim welcomes back legendary technician Ralph Acampora, Director Tactical Investments at Altaira Wealth Management. Ralph is concerned about a number of technical indicators, including the narrowness of the market, as well as serious geopolitical factors that could have negative effects on the markets. “The stock market doesn’t like uncertainty” notes Ralph, “and we now have a long list of uncertainties.” He also sees too much complacency in the market. Ralph says you can park some of your assets in traditional safe havens like consumer staples and utilities, but it could still be a little bumpy. Ralph sees this as a wait-and-see period, and believes raising cash and waiting it out would be a wise choice, at least for now. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up of a very volatile week in the markets and Marc Chandler from Brown Brothers Harriman discusses currencies and oil with Cris Sheridan. "
    Jan 10, 2016. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Correction Developing  [View article]

    It all depends upon whether you agree with this statement and his definition of "longer term":

    "Please note that I don't think that a break of this lower trend channel would indicate a break in the longer-term bull market cycle. However, I do think it would indicate an end to the current phase of the bull market (a phase identified by this trend channel). A trend change and end of a phase may be followed by entry into a corrective and/or consolidation phase. After completion of the corrective/consolidation phase, I believe the next step is likely to be the beginning of a new phase in the longer-term bull market advance."

    When is the "longer term market advance" supposed to recommence? Will it?

    Tack, according to an earlier post you rightfully pointed out that the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already entered bear market territory which is considered to be 20% and the typical definition of correction is 10%. We have already had the correction/consolidation that James was forecasting above.

    So James are you saying we will be going back to all time highs and beyond in 2016?

    Jan 9, 2016. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #90  [View instapost]

    I remember that article and I think you are being unfair as to the intent. It was a not a sell all your holdings it was more of a warning to be defensive and remain with a risk profile that meets your long term goals. Don't go overboard buying stocks!

    Truly not all that different than what you are advocating and treasuries have done well since 2013.

    It's never all or nothing - it's finding the right portfolio mix to live with and proper rebalancing to meet the target so that you can ride through these times without panicking (60% stocks/40% bonds) as an example.
    Jan 8, 2016. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #90  [View instapost]

    Well mainly because inflation/deflation is based upon a basket of items and services and it is the total rate of change of all of those items that is measured over time.

    You can have increasing prices in some areas and decreases in others. It is the overall rate of change that matters.

    As an FYI, as a meat eater I was pleasantly surprised to see that the price of top sirloin at Costco has dropped by over $3/lb in the last 2 months! From $8.99/lb to $5.69/lb.

    With the commodity bust and especially the drop in energy prices I expect that food costs will start to go down especially for packaged goods. We may be seeing the end of the stealth inflation you described and we have all experienced in the past few years.

    For a consumer, mild deflation doesn't seem to be all that bad but it certainly terrifies the Central Banks.
    Jan 8, 2016. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #90  [View instapost]

    Although overwhelmingly a bond guy Doubleline is offering a couple of equity funds and some unconstrained total investment funds as well.

    I have been a DBLTX/DBLFX holder since 2011 and it's been a pretty good ride as far as intermediate bond funds go. I have watched almost every webcast since then and he is fundamentally an objective but opinionated investor. He has been very good verging on excellent when it comes to calling the 10 year during the entire period.
    Jan 8, 2016. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Decline Just Getting Started?  [View article]
    According to Money Chimp - a very good calculator - the total return (gains plus dividends) from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2015
    Average Return 5.78%
    CAGR (the one that matters) 4.02%
    $1 grew to $1.88

    As a footnote, you would have done almost equally as well with 10 year treasuries during that time period - around 3.9% with much less stress!

    That's the importance of bonds in any portfolio.
    Jan 8, 2016. 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CES Put It To Rest: GM Is Coming For Tesla  [View article]
    What Model 3?

    Where is the link to the picture of it?
    Jan 8, 2016. 01:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CES Put It To Rest: GM Is Coming For Tesla  [View article]

    Did you read the promises TSLA made on the Model X that didn't happen?

    GM can get away with it but over time TSLA's brand value will be eroded by the tendency to lie or at the very least over-promise and under-deliver.
    Jan 8, 2016. 01:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CES Put It To Rest: GM Is Coming For Tesla  [View article]
    Well it's certainly way better looking than the Model 3 at this point in time!

    Jan 8, 2016. 01:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big jobs beat in December  [View news story]

    The news for the markets could be bad simply because the probability of more rate increases will likely rise after this type of report - so good for the economy, maybe bad for markets.

    That assumes of course that rate increases are bad for the markets and I don't know that for sure.
    Jan 8, 2016. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: December Denmark Deliveries Provide An Object Lesson For The Bears  [View article]
    The recent stock price action which would be considered an objective review of the facts does indeed suggest that the Danish situation and overall delivery volume does matter.
    Jan 7, 2016. 04:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment