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  • GE to expand aviation ops in Europe, citing lack of U.S. export financing [View news story]
    Somebody is paying for the subsidy, aren't they?

    A subsidy is welfare provided by taxpayers to wealthy corporations.

    Please spare me the feigned outrage on this. I have absolutely zero doubt that there is a private sector financial solution available for giant corporate welfare recipients like GE.

    You think Europe is a cheaper place to do business? Really?

    This is just an excuse to outsource high paid American jobs to reduce costs which is fine but don't make it anything other than that.
    Sep 17, 2015. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE to expand aviation ops in Europe, citing lack of U.S. export financing [View news story]
    It's a political stunt - Immelt and crony capitalism/corporate welfare a truly hideous combination.

    You trying to tell me that a company like GE can't get financing?

    Yeah right.
    Sep 17, 2015. 12:37 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst-Case Scenario For The Fed [View article]
    I have been posting on this blog since late 2008 and I have a certain sense of nostalgia for the days when we thought ZIRP would end by the end of the year and in that case it was 2009. And every year after that the same story!

    Here we are almost 7 years later and still asking the same question: When will ZIRP end?

    In hindsight, maybe ZIRP was the undiscussed Black Swan post the meltdown.
    Sep 16, 2015. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Oil Glut Is Changing Business [View article]
    "Oil is a limited resource and demand will eventually outstrip supply yet again."
    "Investors can bank on the knowledge that oil is an irreplaceable limited resource."

    You might want to check these assumptions because they could be leading you to make decisions based upon the wrong facts.

    We have been "running out of oil" ever since it was discovered! Maybe oil is actually an organic product of the earth

    People are often lead astray by the technical definition of "proven reserves" which has a very specific meaning and does not take into account the actual available oil - for example Canada's tar sands alone have enough oil to feed world demand for 60 years or more but are not considered reserves for accounting & financial purposes.

    There is no replacement for oil - it is literally a miracle product for humans.
    "A partial list of products made from Petroleum (144 of 6000 items)"

    "One 42-gallon barrel of oil creates 19.4 gallons of gasoline. The rest (over half) is used to make things like:
    Sep 14, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update - September 12th, A 'Bottoming' Process For Stocks Or A Deeper 'Correction' Looming? [View article]

    Very thoughtful, cogent commentary.

    What about the scenario that we have right now with 2% growth with no prospect of recession but just barely above stall speed continuing for years? Would that change your thoughts?

    I still think deflation is the bigger risk worldwide right now especially on the debt side as you point out things could get very serious, very quickly.

    The Alberta producers are feeling the pain and it seems the Bakken producers are feeling the same. It seems like the banks are in the "pretend and extend" game once again with these credit risks. If oil stays here or lower then the worst is definitely still to come.

    Can the credit losses and write-offs remain contained or do they leak into the broader economy?

    By the way, here is a very interesting memo from Howard Marks that I think you would appreciate:
    Sep 14, 2015. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update - September 12th, A 'Bottoming' Process For Stocks Or A Deeper 'Correction' Looming? [View article]
    There was a saying that I like from Keynes
    “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

    I like it because it covers both scenarios - bullish and bearish - and frankly captures the essence of your concept of Fear & Greed nicely.

    My gut says that we should get a bounce from here but this market has a way of confounding all expectations and that may be because the algos are anticipating and quantifying human behavior in a mathematical way that takes advantage of our weaknesses.

    What should happen doesn't always happen :)
    Sep 14, 2015. 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: To Hike, Or Not To Hike? [View article]

    That's a very interesting datapoint. Put to call ratio is at a relative high which could be contrarian and increase a short squeeze.
    Sep 13, 2015. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: To Hike, Or Not To Hike? [View article]
    Too bad there isn't a Haiku version of this ;)
    Sep 13, 2015. 12:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple unveils 12.9" iPad Pro, new Watch finishes/accessories (updated) [View news story]
    97% satisfaction is eerily similar to the voting turnout in favor of Saddam Hussein in the bad old days of Iraq or the Republic of North Korea.

    Do they shoot dissenters?

    I meant that in a joking fashion PC police ;)
    Sep 9, 2015. 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shanghai down sharply; PBOC sees end to "correction" [View news story]
    "Correction" is an odd choice of words to describe the crash that has occurred in the last few months!

    I guess he doesn't want to go to jail for treason ;)
    Sep 7, 2015. 11:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Joins The Currency Wars [View article]

    "It seems a shame to sell oil for less than it is worth to produce."

    It all depends upon what the fixed costs are versus the variable costs - if your fixed costs are reduced more by producing then you will keep producing until you can't do it anymore. That's why it can be a vicious downward spiral at the end of which there will be fewer producers and prices will rise. That's the market mechanism in action - I have no doubt we will see a lot of bankruptcies, restructurings and cheap M&A coming out of this cycle in the years ahead.

    Of course a spike in the price of oil would change that but I am not sure what the catalyst for that would be right now.

    Good luck.
    Sep 7, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Default Risk For The Financial Sector [View article]
    On a practical real-world basis the CDS spreads give you zero real-time warning on when things are about to go really bad. Just look at those charts!

    The spikes were instantaneous. They seem to act more as a coincident or lagging indicator for trading or investing purposes. They spent most of 2008 in a range similar to now.

    What warning did they give?

    The flipside is that at their maximum peak that seemed to coincide with maximum fear and an awesome investment entry point so perhaps they are useful as a contrarian indicator.
    Sep 6, 2015. 11:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Revise The Year-End Market Targets? [View article]

    "Canada economy is mainly depending on export and its trade with China is much more than USA."

    If you are going to correct someone make sure you use the right facts!

    75% of Canada's exports go to the US with a minuscule number going to China (5%) by comparison:
    Sep 6, 2015. 11:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: The Bull Market Is At Its Most Critical Juncture Since It Began [View article]

    You are welcome. Updated every week. I find it very informative. Amazingly it seems to be free!
    Sep 6, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Bubble Is Bursting [View article]
    "All of this should come as no surprise to Tesla watchers. Musk tends to promise more than he can deliver and then attempts to make up for shortcoming later on. "

    How about that we won't need to raise cash because we will be cashflow positive schtick from earlier this year?

    All those bulls who called us crazy for stating the obvious - math is math.

    How can you trust anything he says on the financial state of the company?
    Sep 5, 2015. 01:18 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment