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GaltMachine

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  • Q1 GDP revised to decline of 1% [View news story]
    Can an act of legislation be a Black Swan?

    From the USA Today:

    "Many employees hit with higher health care premiums"

    http://usat.ly/1k3ZEoj

    More employees are getting hit with higher health insurance premiums and co-payments, and many don't have the money to cover unexpected medical expenses, a new report finds.

    More than half of companies (56%) increased employees' share of health care premiums or co-payments for doctors' visits in 2013, and 59% of employers say they intend to do the same in 2014, according to the annual Aflac WorkForces Report. It's based on a survey of 1,856 employers and 5,209 employees at small, medium and large-size companies.
    May 29 10:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 GDP revised to decline of 1% [View news story]
    bbro,

    Seriously did anybody last year even consider the possibility that we would have such a negative print?

    Coming out of last year expectations were for 3% plus growth and we get a swing of 4% that's huge!

    Blaming weather on data that is already seasonally adjusted seems lame. What the heck went wrong with all the models?

    Did this surprise you?

    Thanks
    May 29 09:19 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Home Sales Report: Time To Get Short The Homebuilders [View article]
    Just saw this on WSJ, seems obvious but apparently not to everyone:

    http://on.wsj.com/1jA4Tf1

    Higher Mortgage Rates Dragged Down U.S. Home Sales: San Francisco Fed The pronounced slowdown in U.S. home sales in the second half of 2013 was primarily caused by a rise in mortgage rates that made borrowing more expensive for potential home buyers, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    May 20 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Home Sales Report: Time To Get Short The Homebuilders [View article]
    Tack,

    I don't know anything about his prior comments but his comment does say "Europe" and Germany is a subset of Europe. Without Germany Europe would be in near negative growth - Italy just slipped back into contraction.

    Germany is the strongest part of a sick EuroZone.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Eurozone slow growth continues, inflation mixed
    May 15 2014, 05:10 ET

    Eurozone GDP growth held steady at 0.2% in Q1 but missed consensus of 0.4%.
    On year, GDP rose 0.9% vs 0.5% in Q4 and fell short of expectations of +1.1%. (PR)
    CPI +0.2% on month in April vs +0.9% in March and forecasts of +0.2%.
    On year, CPI +0.7% vs +0.5% and +0.7%. Core CPI +1% vs +0.7% and +0.7%. (PR)
    See country GDP readings: Japan, Germany, France, Italy
    May 17 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 297K [View news story]
    Two points on this discussion:

    - doesn't take into account pensions/benefits which for teachers are substantial and on a cash-adjusted basis valuable.
    - $33k for a starting job that only requires about 3/4 of a year's work or less is pretty good in my book especially right out of college for someone in their early 20's.

    So I don't think they are underpaid nor overpaid but I do think competition in teaching would be a very good thing just like competition in everything else.
    May 16 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 297K [View news story]
    Maybe the answer lies in the fact that extended benefits discourage people from working. Perhaps they make more after tax income by not working which would be a horrible incentive if true.

    It certainly is a bizarre state of affairs.
    May 15 10:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 297K [View news story]
    In 1984, George Orwell wrote, "Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past."
    May 15 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago PMI shoots 7.1 pts to 63.0 [View news story]
    "Consensus" appears to be having a bad day in the forecasting department.
    Apr 30 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Concerning To Think About [View article]
    Bbro,

    Why use Feb 2010 as your starting point?

    Data is endpoint sensitive as you well know. People experience recovery as measured from peak to trough especially on jobs. On this measure we are stagnant or worse especially on the participation rate and population growth.

    You could easily argue that companies began to shed jobs in earnest once they knew the President was elected and they began to fear his political and economic policies especially on taxes.

    So many statistics depends upon your viewpoint and your political leanings when it comes to this issue. I believe it is best to use standardized measures like a peak to trough and go from there.
    Apr 29 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pending Home Sales rise 3.4%, [View news story]
    Interesting. I had no idea the y/y trend was so weak.
    Apr 28 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales at 384K [View news story]
    Yes inventory of new homes.

    http://bit.ly/QFv1J5
    "Even with the increase in sales over the last two years, new home sales are still near the bottom for previous recessions.

    The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

    The months of supply increased in March to 6.0 months from 5.0 months in February.

    The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

    New Home Sales, Months of Supply This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

    "The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 193,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate."

    On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

    "A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."


    Read more at http://bit.ly/QFv1Zi
    Apr 23 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales at 384K [View news story]
    "The months of supply increased in March to 6.0 months from 5.0 months in February."
    Read more at http://bit.ly/QEVeYa
    Apr 23 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales at 384K [View news story]
    Is the effect of good weather on sales?
    Apr 23 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks waver in choppy session, Nasdaq falls again [View news story]
    "The week-long trend of selling shorter-end Treasurys in favor of longer maturities continued, as the yield on the benchmark 30-year bond sank as low as 2.668%, a nine-month low."

    I believe you are referring to the 10 yr yield here.
    Mar 27 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summary Of My Post CPI Comments [View article]
    TIT,

    That's a very interesting response. How do you get a hedonic measure for a colonoscopy?

    :)

    All I know is that I spend a lot more than I used to for what seems like the same thing which to me feels like inflation regardless of the technical definition of it.

    Oh well!
    Mar 19 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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