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GaltMachine

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    Jeff,

    Thanks for the reply. Sorry I value your judgment but I don't always read your commentary every week so I am sure that I missed that. I was not intending to cast aspersions. I am genuinely shocked by how rates are moving.

    I guess it's all relative as well in a world market. By the standards of German and Japanese interest rates we look down right heady at these levels. I guess this is an example of anchoring bias.

    With no inflation in sight what would be the catalyst for higher rates?

    Seems to me we will have low, low rates for quite a while which should surely be supportive to the business cycle.

    Thank you.
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Message From Fourth Quarter Earnings [View article]
    Jeff,

    What are your thoughts on the flattening of the yield curve?

    It seems like a very dramatic move from even the most recent highs which historically were already incredibly low.

    Doesn't the lowest rate ever on the 30 year merit a story or detailed comment?

    http://1.usa.gov/oLC2C9

    The spread between the 10 and 30 year has really closed dramatically over the past year so if we do get an interest rate hike this year, how large do you think it will be?

    The 2 and 5 year by comparison have been pretty stable during that period while the long end has compressed.

    Would that interest rate hike steepen the curve or flatten it even more?

    Thanks!
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada seen losing pace with U.S. on oil slump [View news story]
    I think crisis era lows were closer to the mid 70's to the USD in 2008/09. When I emigrated to the US in 2002 it was about 63 cent dollar so I suppose it has a long way to go. My friends were buying up everything in FL when the dollar hit $1.10 or so.

    Now that's volatility in a currency - the country trades like a stock. Seems like it really is a petro-dollar.
    Jan 6, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1yoozdt

    "Two major global media watchdogs - Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists - have criticised Beijing for its lack of progress in giving the press more freedom under the leadership of President Xi Jinping .

    In its 2014 press freedom index report, Reporters Without Borders ranked China 175th among 180 countries, saying the country was still censoring and jailing dissident writers and journalists and classifying it as an "enemy of the internet".

    The Committee to Protect Journalists said that China topped the list of countries who jailed media people last year, with 44 journalists imprisoned on the mainland out of 178 globally. The number - up from 32 in 2013 - was a record since the committee started its list in 1990.

    The committee said this reflected "the pressure that Xi has exerted on media, lawyers, dissidents, and academics to toe the government line".

    Xi - while credited for his anti-corruption campaign, people-oriented policies and free-market reforms - has been widely criticised for having revived many Maoist political tactics to further restrict personal, academic and press freedom."
    Jan 4, 2015. 01:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach: Bull market for Treasurys to continue [View news story]
    leopardtrader,

    If you are going to make a statement "Gundlach's views here is no contrarian by the way" please provide the proof.

    The consensus for the 10 yr this year as per the Barron's article is:

    In a new interview with Barron's, Gundlach is once again going contrarian and saying rates could go lower than we seen in a very long time:

    "Where the median economic forecast tabulated by Bloomberg for the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield for year-end 2015 currently stands at 3.24%, Gundlach thinks the 10-year that finished 2014 at 2.17% could potentially take out its modern-era low of 1.38% yield hit in 2012."

    Read more: http://read.bi/1w4MKaK

    The forecast for the 10 year to rise has been made every year since ZIRP started. This was the forecast from last year at this time:
    http://on.wsj.com/1w4MLeO

    "Interest Rates (10-Year U.S. Treasury yield)

    Projection for closing yield in December 2014: 3.52%
    Final close: 2.17%

    This one is a real doozy for one of the world’s most important interest rates. Every economist in the survey in January was far off the mark in expectations for interest rates in 2014."

    Then just look at the position of traders, short interest, etc,. I don't know anyone recommending treasuries at this price.

    Seems crazy and it is definitely contrarian.
    Jan 4, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP highest in 11 years [View news story]
    bbro,

    The deflator used was 1.4% approx - that seems really low. No inflation, strong growth, hmmm.

    http://1.usa.gov/vgZr0y

    Does the FED really have to think about tightening at this point?

    What stage of the business cycle do you think we are in?

    Thanks!
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP highest in 11 years [View news story]
    You have been so good with this stuff the last few years so you should be commended on your analysis - I know you get beat up a lot :)

    Can you explain what happened with durables?

    The numbers seem at odds with this type of growth - seems confusing.

    Thanks!
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors tests the water below $200 [View news story]
    That's hilarious I quote the "Science" and you quote your made up numbers and we are supposed to believe you.

    ;)
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Production numbers the talk on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    Dec 15, 4:05 PM EST
    http://apne.ws/1vWyj7q

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
    Study: Your all-electric car may not be so green
    By SETH BORENSTEIN
    AP Science Writer
    WASHINGTON (AP) -- People who own all-electric cars where coal generates the power may think they are helping the environment. But a new study finds their vehicles actually make the air dirtier, worsening global warming.
    Ethanol isn't so green, either.
    "It's kind of hard to beat gasoline" for public and environmental health, said study co-author Julian Marshall, an engineering professor at the University of Minnesota. "A lot of the technologies that we think of as being clean ... are not better than gasoline."


    Journal: http://www.pnas.org


    ;)
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors tests the water below $200 [View news story]
    Dec 15, 4:05 PM EST
    http://apne.ws/1vWyj7q\

    Study: Your all-electric car may not be so green
    By SETH BORENSTEIN
    AP Science Writer
    WASHINGTON (AP) -- People who own all-electric cars where coal generates the power may think they are helping the environment. But a new study finds their vehicles actually make the air dirtier, worsening global warming.
    Ethanol isn't so green, either.
    "It's kind of hard to beat gasoline" for public and environmental health, said study co-author Julian Marshall, an engineering professor at the University of Minnesota. "A lot of the technologies that we think of as being clean ... are not better than gasoline."

    Journal: http://www.pnas.org

    ;)
    Dec 16, 2014. 02:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The November Jobs Report May Have Been Too Good To Be True [View article]
    Eventus stultorum magister est
    In English: The outcome is the teacher of fools.
    http://bit.ly/13qJNue
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar worldwide dealer sales sink 10% in three-month rolling period [View news story]
    Weird that the stock is not getting killed by this relentless downward revenue trajectory. What am I missing here?

    Thanks!
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Stock Market Correction Over? [View article]
    Strike,

    You could have taken the contrarian position on bonds this year and bought TLT (the 20+yr bond ETF) and returned at this point just over 16% YTD.

    That's not too bad.
    Oct 19, 2014. 11:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama appoints Ebola czar [View news story]
    You really think this guy is the most qualified person for handling something of this incredible seriousness in the entire universe of available applicants?

    I don't.

    I bet there are at least 10,000 people that are more qualified than a politically oriented lawyer to handle what could ultimately become the most dangerous national security risk of our lifetime.

    Of course we as citizens have to speak up when the government has revealed itself to beyond incompetent and verging on dangerous.

    But I am glad it doesn't bother you.
    Oct 17, 2014. 01:52 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama appoints Ebola czar [View news story]
    This would be hilarious if it weren't so tragic :(
    Oct 17, 2014. 01:45 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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