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  • Egypt swears in Sisi [View news story]
    When discussing religion and politics it is best to keep one's thoughts to oneself :)

    If I could delete this now I would.
    Jun 8, 2014. 04:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Egypt swears in Sisi [View news story]
    "Sisi is said to have won 97% of the vote in last month's election"

    I didn't know the President was on the ballot :)
    Jun 8, 2014. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • P&G keeping costs down during green transition [View news story]
    "To balance its green initiative, the company is cutting 3,000 office jobs"

    The "green movement" in a nutshell.
    Jun 1, 2014. 11:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 GDP revised to decline of 1% [View news story]

    I like what you write, however I suggest you break it into paragraphs. I am so trained to read by paragraph that it is more work to read when it is like this.

    I suspect I am not the only one with this opinion :)
    May 31, 2014. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 GDP revised to decline of 1% [View news story]

    While you are completely right about the definition, I was simply taking artistic license to make a point.

    Surely on your point about costs being well-known years ago, I think you must be joking. Only the so-called kooks, racists, and right-wingers (like me) were making this point, correctly as it turns out.

    In the mainstream media which is just about everything on TV the Act was sold as a cost-reducer as per the President 19 separate times in this video:

    "Obama Promises To Lower Health Insurance Premiums by $2,500 Per Year"

    I guess he meant to say increase. Ooopppss.

    I stand by my original idea even though it's more like a gray swan :)
    May 29, 2014. 12:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 GDP revised to decline of 1% [View news story]
    Can an act of legislation be a Black Swan?

    From the USA Today:

    "Many employees hit with higher health care premiums"

    More employees are getting hit with higher health insurance premiums and co-payments, and many don't have the money to cover unexpected medical expenses, a new report finds.

    More than half of companies (56%) increased employees' share of health care premiums or co-payments for doctors' visits in 2013, and 59% of employers say they intend to do the same in 2014, according to the annual Aflac WorkForces Report. It's based on a survey of 1,856 employers and 5,209 employees at small, medium and large-size companies.
    May 29, 2014. 10:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 GDP revised to decline of 1% [View news story]

    Seriously did anybody last year even consider the possibility that we would have such a negative print?

    Coming out of last year expectations were for 3% plus growth and we get a swing of 4% that's huge!

    Blaming weather on data that is already seasonally adjusted seems lame. What the heck went wrong with all the models?

    Did this surprise you?

    May 29, 2014. 09:19 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Home Sales Report: Time To Get Short The Homebuilders [View article]
    Just saw this on WSJ, seems obvious but apparently not to everyone:

    Higher Mortgage Rates Dragged Down U.S. Home Sales: San Francisco Fed The pronounced slowdown in U.S. home sales in the second half of 2013 was primarily caused by a rise in mortgage rates that made borrowing more expensive for potential home buyers, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    May 20, 2014. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Home Sales Report: Time To Get Short The Homebuilders [View article]

    I don't know anything about his prior comments but his comment does say "Europe" and Germany is a subset of Europe. Without Germany Europe would be in near negative growth - Italy just slipped back into contraction.

    Germany is the strongest part of a sick EuroZone.
    Eurozone slow growth continues, inflation mixed
    May 15 2014, 05:10 ET

    Eurozone GDP growth held steady at 0.2% in Q1 but missed consensus of 0.4%.
    On year, GDP rose 0.9% vs 0.5% in Q4 and fell short of expectations of +1.1%. (PR)
    CPI +0.2% on month in April vs +0.9% in March and forecasts of +0.2%.
    On year, CPI +0.7% vs +0.5% and +0.7%. Core CPI +1% vs +0.7% and +0.7%. (PR)
    See country GDP readings: Japan, Germany, France, Italy
    May 17, 2014. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 297K [View news story]
    Two points on this discussion:

    - doesn't take into account pensions/benefits which for teachers are substantial and on a cash-adjusted basis valuable.
    - $33k for a starting job that only requires about 3/4 of a year's work or less is pretty good in my book especially right out of college for someone in their early 20's.

    So I don't think they are underpaid nor overpaid but I do think competition in teaching would be a very good thing just like competition in everything else.
    May 16, 2014. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 297K [View news story]
    Maybe the answer lies in the fact that extended benefits discourage people from working. Perhaps they make more after tax income by not working which would be a horrible incentive if true.

    It certainly is a bizarre state of affairs.
    May 15, 2014. 10:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims at 297K [View news story]
    In 1984, George Orwell wrote, "Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past."
    May 15, 2014. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago PMI shoots 7.1 pts to 63.0 [View news story]
    "Consensus" appears to be having a bad day in the forecasting department.
    Apr 30, 2014. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Concerning To Think About [View article]

    Why use Feb 2010 as your starting point?

    Data is endpoint sensitive as you well know. People experience recovery as measured from peak to trough especially on jobs. On this measure we are stagnant or worse especially on the participation rate and population growth.

    You could easily argue that companies began to shed jobs in earnest once they knew the President was elected and they began to fear his political and economic policies especially on taxes.

    So many statistics depends upon your viewpoint and your political leanings when it comes to this issue. I believe it is best to use standardized measures like a peak to trough and go from there.
    Apr 29, 2014. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pending Home Sales rise 3.4%, [View news story]
    Interesting. I had no idea the y/y trend was so weak.
    Apr 28, 2014. 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment