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GaltMachine

GaltMachine
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  • Don't Ignore The Weakness In Commodities [View article]
    Tack,

    That was an exceptionally insightful comment - this is what happens when ZIRP lasts for 7 years - people get anchored in the present and forget that the past is not static.

    The type of instability that is arising from this stability could be incredibly deflationary if not handled well and frankly I don't think the FED knows what it is going to do either or what the consequences of their actions or inactions will be.

    We live in very interesting times.
    Jul 25, 2015. 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management: The CEO Is Out, But The External Management Problem Remains [View article]
    Well I bought 4,000 shares at $9.78 last week and I have wanted to own this company for a while. Sure glad I didn't pull the trigger on it when I first wanted it at $16 plus!

    I like the analysis even if I don't like the conclusion - better to understand the worst rather than focusing on confirmation bias. Heck I might not even have pulled the trigger if I had read this first.

    To be honest, I really bought in because of Gundlach's recommendation since I have great results with DBLTX & DBLFX over the years since 2010 when I first bought in.

    He generally makes only a few specific calls like this and he has done pretty well with them. I think there is a margin of safety here at the price I bought in at but who knows?

    Good luck longs.
    Jul 25, 2015. 12:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Need To Restructure [View article]
    Value,

    If you are indeed a value investor why would you ignore something as fundamental as a Quick Ratio for this stock?

    It's obvious that they will run out of or nearly out of money very soon which is an incredibly dangerous way to run such a large company.

    If I were in your shoes I would be demanding that they raise additional funding through an equity offering because despite the dilution it would likely secure the future of this company all while the company cashes in on a really nice valuation. Not doing so at this point and running on fumes may make for good drama and story writing but it is certainly no way to run a company of this size.

    I am guessing the available cash will be a big subject of discussion in the next earning's call.
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:50 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Free And Unlimited Supercharger Access Can Potentially Devastate Tesla [View article]
    I still can't believe he talks like this, like a weasel and a valley girl at the same time:

    Elon Musk - Chairman and CEO

    ".. For the Superchargers, as we've said in the initial press release, the Superchargers are free. It's basically free long distance for life, forever. So, free long distance forever is what the Superchargers are providing. There are few people who are like quite aggressively using it for local Supercharging and we also send them just a reminder note that it's cool to do this occasionally but it's meant to be a long-distance thing. But it is free long distance forever and it's basically built into the cost of the car. And based on what we're seeing in terms of the economics, it looks quite supportable."
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:43 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs lit up bright red as earnings bellwethers disappoint [View news story]
    I bought NLY last week, here's hoping the "Margin of Safety" was enough :)
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denahan out as Annaly Capital CEO [View news story]
    Tdune,

    Thanks. I opened a position last week with 4,000 shares at $9.78 so being caught unawares like this can be a bit disconcerting.

    I have been following this for years and was always interested in nibbling but never did and then this dropped like a rock. Hopefully there is a reasonable margin of safety here and it was the Gundlach (I own a lot of DBLTX & DBLFX) recommendation that got me in. I have a lot of respect for his calls.
    Jul 21, 2015. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IDI: Strong Sell On Fraud Lawsuits, Bankruptcy And Technology Failure, -92.4% Downside [View article]
    Why the hell would they even be allowed to be at the helm of a public company with this kind of track record? Why haven't they been banned?

    Unreal.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denahan out as Annaly Capital CEO [View news story]
    Is this good or bad for the stock?

    I own it.
    Jul 20, 2015. 05:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach sees margin of safety in Annaly Capital [View news story]
    Took a position of 4000 shares at $9.78 on Thursday. Been watching this one for a long time so glad I didn't buy when I wanted it the first time at $18 plus!
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Verdict Still Pending On Earnings [View article]
    Jeff,

    From the Factset article:

    http://bit.ly/1KeiMdw

    "Largest Decline in Revenue (-4.0%) Since Q3 2009 (-
    11.5%) The blended revenue decline for Q2 2015 is -4.0%. I
    f this is the final revenue decline for the quarter
    , it will mark the first time the index has seen two con
    secutive quarters of year-over-year revenue decline
    s since Q2 2009 and Q3 2009. It will also mark the la
    rgest year over-year decline in revenue since Q3 20
    09 (-11.5%). Six sectors are reporting or are projecte
    d to report year-over-year growth in revenue, led b
    y the Health Care sector. Four sectors are reporting
    or are predicted to report a year-over-year decline
    in revenue, led by the Energy sector. "

    I could be wrong but I always thought revenue growth was a decent indicator of the overall strength of the economy. Am I missing something?

    Meanwhile Market is at all times. Don't you find that bizarre?

    I actually took a position in NLY this week - sure glad I didn't pull the trigger back when it was in the $18 range and I wanted it :)
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla sends invites for July 17 event featuring Musk; shares higher [View news story]
    Whatever. Apparently a Musk sighting is as notable as a UFO sighting when it comes to financial news ;)
    Jul 16, 2015. 07:04 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iran nuclear talks drag on [View news story]
    We say we want to be friends with Iran

    The Parliament, the people and the Supreme Leader say "Death to America. Death to Israel."

    Might be a little difficult to find a middle ground here.
    Jul 12, 2015. 02:39 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Falling Earnings Sink The Stock Market? [View article]
    Looks like GDI was a more accurate representation of the economy in the last 9 months rather than GDP. It seems that in the long run GDI is more predictive of direction than GDP. This was the subject of an article about the 2007-08 crisis in FT Alphaville:

    Ignorance is not bliss: it can ruin your economy
    Cardiff Garcia

    | Oct 10 2011 20:42 | Share

    http://on.ft.com/1Shb7wL?
    Jul 12, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China scrambles to end stock market rout [View news story]
    Amazing when Greed turns to Fear everything changes in an instant. So much for fundamentals.
    Jul 5, 2015. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Afford To Hold Cash [View article]
    Cash has optionality - if the market declines the value of the cash increases directly in proportion to what can be purchased.

    The value of cash does not decline with a market decline.

    The opportunity cost of cash is really the argument for not holding it - what you could have earned!

    James Montier of GMO wrote an awesome whitepaper on this subject in 2011 and it is still relevant.

    http://tinyurl.com/qf5...

    A Value Investor’s Perspective on Tail Risk Protection:
    An Ode to the Joy of Cash
    James Montier
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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