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  • Initial Jobless Claims: +38K to 368K vs. 350K consensus, 330K prior (revised). Continuing claims +22K to 3.17M. [View news story]
    Here's a link to the seasonal factors that DOL uses to calculate weekly claims:

    Very helpful in understanding why you see wide differences between adjusted and unadjusted data.

    Surprisingly given the more aggressive seasonal factor used this week, I was expecting a higher number than this so to me "it was better than expected" :)
    Jan 31, 2013. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Fusion-io: The company expects FQ3 revenue $80M and an operating loss of $10M-$15, much worse than a consensus for sales of $137.2M and EPS of $0.09. Gross margin is expected to drop to 58%-60% from FQ2's 61.9%. FY13 revenue is expected to total $420M-$460M, below a $530.1M consensus. FY13 op. margin now pegged at 6%-8% vs. prior guidance of 12%. CFO Dennis Wolf says there has been a "two-quarter shift" in the timing of purchases from Facebook and Apple. FIO -19.4% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    All I can say is holy crap. These kinds of gyrations are mind numbing.
    Jan 30, 2013. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q4 : -0.1% vs. +1.0% consensus, +3.1% prior. [View news story]

    "Tax increases will have no meaningful impact on growth"

    How do you know that? What theory is that based upon?
    Jan 30, 2013. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q4 : -0.1% vs. +1.0% consensus, +3.1% prior. [View news story]

    " that are very important to follow in relation to GDP....they have improved..."

    Calculated Risk has a very good overview of that here:

    "Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 2.2% annualized rate, and residential investment increased 15.3%, equipment and software increased 12.4%. That is a solid increase in fixed investment."

    I get that. All I am saying is that we had a negative GDP number before the impact of the recently passed taxes has taken effect.

    So in theory this could be a negative quarter which would make two consecutive negative quarters, isn't that a recession?

    I must admit, I am bamboozled by this development and having followed you for years, I suspect you are as well.
    Jan 30, 2013. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q4 : -0.1% vs. +1.0% consensus, +3.1% prior. [View news story]

    While it's important to look for the positive, it is indeed a negative number so sometimes a cigar is just a cigar after-all.

    This is of course before the onset of the recent tax increases so in theory this quarter should be worse which means ....????
    Jan 30, 2013. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Black Swans That Could Jolt The Market In 2013 [View article]
    FYI It's a not a "Black Swan" if it can be forseen. The unforseen both positive and negative is what causes disproportionate/seismic reactions in the greater world.

    Think something like this:

    Modern History Sourcebook:
    The Tonkin Bay Resolution, 1964
    Jan 29, 2013. 03:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]

    I don't own AMZN and never will. I love the company as a place to buy from but like you I think this valuation is insane by any standard.

    I don't think of Amazon as a tech company - I think of them as a retailer that owns some tech businesses so to me Walmart is a more appropriate comparison.

    The PSR on WMT - one of the world's greatest companies - is 0.508. That means AMZN to me to is at least 4 times overvalued.
    Jan 29, 2013. 02:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No rocket science here: Nothing drops to the bottom line of consumer confidence numbers like smaller paychecks, and that's what Americans are seeing in 2013 thanks to higher payroll and income taxes. Today's 58.6 read missed expectations by a mile and the outlook for employment fell as well, with those anticipating more jobs declining to 14.3% from 17.9%. The XLY slides 0.8%, the XRT -0.7%[View news story]

    That's actually quite funny. You assume the average American actually has a clue when it comes to an obscure detail like this - this isn't Snooki's latest boyfriend we are discussing here.

    The Average Joe/Jane just woke up to the fact that we had a tax increase despite the fact that they were told endlessly that the "middle-class" tax cuts have been protected and taxes won't rise on them.

    Apparently the "middleclass" now refers to that group of people that don't work for a living :)
    Jan 29, 2013. 10:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]

    "So the Galt Machine endorses the price to sales justification of Amazon's price"

    I do no such thing. I merely point it out as a piece of data.
    Jan 29, 2013. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICSC Retail Store Sales: -1.0% W/W, vs. -1.5% last week. +2.0% Y/Y vs. +3.5% last week. Higher payroll taxes, post-holiday and cold temperature negatively impacted store sales. [View news story]
    Wasn't it "post holiday" last year as well?

    "2 people shot; fortunately only one was killed, the other permanently disabled"

    Jan 29, 2013. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]

    Atlas? Shrugged?

    Jan 27, 2013. 05:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackRock has offered to buy about $80M in Twitter stock from early employees that would value the company at more than $9B, reports the FT. This is above the $8.4B Twitter was valued at in its last major funding round in 2011, but below the $10B-$11B valuation in 2 smaller transactions late in 2012. [View news story]
    The investing gains from startups these days are clearly happening in the private arena. The path to IPO used to be a sub $1 billion company that needed to raise money to hit the next level hence the potential leverage of returns for IPO investors.

    When you eliminate all the upside before it hits the mkt, the only people that benefit are the ones selling the stock at the IPO date. Someday investors will wake up and hopefully get rid of SarBox for small cap companies. We have literally destroyed the small IPO market as a result of Congressional overreach but what else is new?

    The Fat Finger of Government is everywhere.
    Jan 27, 2013. 11:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]

    Just FYI, we have seen a "big" move in the 10 yr - now at 1.95% - compared to the 1.5% you are quoting.

    Doesn't seem like much but that's a lot of price change given the duration.

    Ironic given that the FED is supposedly trying to lower rates.
    Jan 26, 2013. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Common Sense And Logic To Forecast 2013 - Part 1 [View article]

    That was the write up that changed my viewpoint as well. I wish I had read it in 2009, I would have been a big buyer instead of huddling in a fetal position under my desk.
    Jan 26, 2013. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Is Reaching Escape Velocity [View article]
    "The U.S. Economy Is Reaching Escape Velocity"

    If I recall correctly this is probably the same or similar headline that has been bandied about by talking heads and the government in the January of years including 2008, 2010-13 - not to mention the period from 1930 to 1940.

    Personally I am little surprised by the amazing amount of giddiness that has suddenly sprung up given the fact that we actually got a pretty sizable tax increase in January and its effects are yet to be felt. After all those years of saying that tax increases would kill the economy we just got one of the largest increases ever and no one seems to care. So if tax increases don't cause growth drags we have definitely been lied to for a long period of time.

    Hopefully this time the headline is correct :)
    Jan 26, 2013. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment