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  • Treasury sells three-year notes at 0.631% [View news story]
    The 3 year was at 0.30 on May 2nd, 2013.

    That is a pretty significant move. The question is will the long-end up keep moving up or do we start to get a flattening of the curve?

    Inquiring minds want to know :)
    Aug 6, 2013. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Improving - Isn't It? [View article]

    Very few people get that point. The best work I have seen on this subject is done by Cullen Roche at

    I also agree that the correlation between deficts, the FED, and the Treasury is a direct one.
    Aug 6, 2013. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Trade deficit narrows down to $34.02B [View news story]
    Imports showed a big drop which in theory should be positive for economic growth but certainly suggests that domestic demand is weakening.

    This is a positive for GDP in the short-run as the upward revisions to Q2 indicate.
    Aug 6, 2013. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Improving - Isn't It? [View article]

    FYI 7 of the Top 10 richest Members of Congress are Dems assuming that has any relevance, here's a link:

    Both parties are filled with corrupt politicians so I wouldn't be too focused on party ID"s when it comes to this issue.
    Aug 5, 2013. 02:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bubble Continues To Form In The Stock Market [View article]

    What happens to junk bonds in the bubble scenario you are describing?

    Do they act like equities?

    What are your thoughts on the Stock Mkt/GNP ratio (a form of price to sales favored by Buffett)?

    here's a link to the metric as of today:
    "What returns can we expect from the stock market?
    As of today, the Total Market Index is at $ 18154.7 billion, which is about 113.4% of the last reported GDP. The US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of 2%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. This includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 2%.

    As pointed by Warren Buffett, the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment"
    Aug 3, 2013. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Nonfarm Payrolls +162K, unemployment rate 7.4% [View news story]
    The U-6 (Table A15) number is still pretty damn stunning actually at 14%.

    Jobs are all being created in the part-time market and there is no distinction in terms of quality of job. Clearly a full-time job is way better but it is counted the same.
    Aug 2, 2013. 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims [View news story]
    I do agree with you - a return to more aggressive seasonal factors with this result is a good sign.

    Almost the identical reporting period and seasonal factor last year as well so almost a perfect comp.

    NSA was 312k last year & 279.6k this year that's a decent improvement.
    Aug 1, 2013. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Obama's NYT interview: Obama played down claims TransCanada's (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline would generate large numbers of jobs. "The most realistic estimates are this might create maybe 2,000 jobs during the construction of the pipeline...and then after that we're talking about somewhere between 50 and 100 jobs." Obama also disputed that the line would cause gasoline prices to fall, saying it could do the opposite because it would lead to increased exports. Obama will decide whether to approve Keystone based on how much carbon would be added to the atmosphere because of it, but he isn't certain Canada is doing enough to resolve concerns about pollution. (Interview transcript[View news story]
    Is the final payoff for Warren Buffett's support?

    Are we to believe that transporting oil by rail is safer, cheaper, and less carbon intensive than a pipeline?

    Is it any wonder that those of us who can actually think find this President's statements so obviously wrong yet he still utters them time and time again. I can only conclude that it is purposeful.
    Jul 28, 2013. 11:27 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global business confidence has dropped to the levels seen during the financial crisis, says Markit, with the net balance of companies expecting a rise in activity over the next year falling to 30 percentage points from 39 percentage points in February. The fall in confidence was most notable in the U.S. and China, with optimism low in Germany and France as well, although the U.K. was very bullish. [View news story]
    Interesting. Wonder if this is contrarian?
    Jul 15, 2013. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rupert Murdoch could face criminal charges in the U.S. over a secret recording in which he indicated that payments to public officials for information was part of the culture of U.K. journalism, says New York lawyer Bradley Simon. The tape raises two issues: firstly, Murdoch implied he may have known about bribery at News Corp.'s (NWS) U.K. operations; secondly, the recording may undermine his testimony to regulators, with lying to law enforcers a crime under Title 18, Section 1001. [View news story]
    Is there a politician alive today in our government that isn't a liar?
    Jul 14, 2013. 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China June imports and exports fall 0.7% and 3.1% Y/Y respectively. [View news story]
    The miss vs. consensus is actually quite epic!

    How useless is this economics forecasting profession?
    Jul 9, 2013. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]

    That is certainly a very interesting observation.

    In retrospect it would seem that when rates bottomed on the 10 year it was time to hedge. I always "know" what to do I just never seem to do it :)

    TBT would have been a great way to protect against the risk.
    Jul 5, 2013. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panicky selling grips the mortgage REITs (REM -3.5%) as Treasury yields soar following the payroll report. American Capital (AGNC -6.9%), (MTGE -5%), Annaly (NLY -6.9%) Chimera (CIM -4.9%), Armour (ARR -3.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -3%). CYS' Kevin Grant was public a month ago about being a happy buyer as yields rose - a bit early on that call. [View news story]
    With you on this as well. Amazingly I was close to pulling the trigger a couple of years ago at $17.

    The theory was that the dividend was large enough to ensure that you could hold it in the event of price fluctuations!

    Well clearly that theory was debunked. Perhaps it is best to ignore the price changes but personally I couldn't stomach a drop of this magnitude.
    Jul 5, 2013. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Josh Brown's take on the downdraft in gold miner stocks (GDX, GDXJ): "They still suck... Management [messed up by] issuing tons of stock and hedging wrongly on the way up, removing hedges at the top and then getting entangled in all sorts of uneconomical projects in harsh geographies to add insult to injury. And as equities, by the way, if the stock market crashes, trust me, they do too." [View news story]
    GDX & GDXJ have already crashed! Y/Y charts are terrifying.

    They are barely above their 2008 lows. Seriously a little late to the program with this advice.
    Jun 27, 2013. 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications: -3.0% vs. -3.3% last week. [View news story]

    I think actual sales are a lagging indicator relative to this index - this index is designed to predict what sales will look like in the future. This index was getting pretty strong late last year and early this year and sales followed.

    So the question this raises is what will happen to sales on a go-forward basis. I think basically where we are right now continues but doesn't accelerate.
    Jun 26, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment