Seeking Alpha

GaltMachine

GaltMachine
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View GaltMachine's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The U.S. will overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest oil producer this year, thanks to the boom in tight oil, rising production of biofuels and expected cuts in OPEC supply, BP says in its latest energy outlook. Other potential shale operators, such as China, lack the unique combination of factors that have helped launch the U.S. shale revolution. [View news story]
    charlie,

    The phrase "proven reserves" is the exact sort of misleading statistic that I am describing. Complete BS when it comes to accurately measuring our potential energy production.

    I have no doubt that as long as the enviro whackos can be set aside that we will achieve incredible leaps forward in our energy production. We have hundreds of years worth of traditional fossil fuels left in this country and that 1.9% figure is just purposely misleading for someone with a tendentious agenda. It is used precisely to further a particular political agenda and viewpoint and is misleading at best and downright dishonest at its worst.

    http://1.usa.gov/VmF2cI
    "For oil and natural gas, a major distinction in measuring quantities of energy commodities is made between proved reserves and undiscovered resources. Proved reserves are those amounts of
    oil, natural gas, or coal that have been discovered and defined, typically by drilling wells or other exploratory measures, and which can be economically recovered. In the United States, proved
    reserves are typically measured by private companies, who report their findings to the Securities and Exchange Commission because they are considered capital assets. In addition to the volumes of proved reserves are deposits of oil and gas that have not yet been discovered, which are called undiscovered resources. The term has a specific meaning: undiscovered resources are amounts of oil and gas estimated to exist in unexplored areas. If they are considered to be recoverable using
    existing production technologies, they are referred to as undiscovered technically recoverable resources (UTRR). In-place resources are intended to represent all of the oil, natural gas, or coal contained in a formation or basin without regard to technical or economic recoverability. "
    Jan 16, 2013. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European new-car registrations slumped 16.3% Y/Y to 799,407 vehicles in December, the sharpest decline since October 2010, as high unemployment and an unwillingness by banks to finance consumer purchases took their toll. For 2012, EU sales -8.2% to 12.05M, the steepest annual drop since 1993. GM (GM) and Ford (F) sales in Europe cratered 27% each in December, although Korean brands Hyundai and Kia, with their affordable cars and long warranties, climbed 10.5% and 6.8% respectively. [View news story]
    tdot,

    Thank you.

    I think your total was meant to be millions rather than billions :)
    Jan 16, 2013. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. will overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest oil producer this year, thanks to the boom in tight oil, rising production of biofuels and expected cuts in OPEC supply, BP says in its latest energy outlook. Other potential shale operators, such as China, lack the unique combination of factors that have helped launch the U.S. shale revolution. [View news story]
    Weird considering the President says we only have 2.5% of the world's oil reserves.

    Lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Consumer Price Index: 0.0% in-line with expectations, -0.3% prior. Core CPI +0.1% in-line with expectations, +0.1% prior. [View news story]
    Amusing how CPI is calculated - everything important is up big from 3 years ago - food, energy, and rents - yet CPI has barely budged.

    That's a head scratcher.

    Well at least the price of a tablet on a hedonics basis has come down dramatically :)
    Jan 16, 2013. 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European new-car registrations slumped 16.3% Y/Y to 799,407 vehicles in December, the sharpest decline since October 2010, as high unemployment and an unwillingness by banks to finance consumer purchases took their toll. For 2012, EU sales -8.2% to 12.05M, the steepest annual drop since 1993. GM (GM) and Ford (F) sales in Europe cratered 27% each in December, although Korean brands Hyundai and Kia, with their affordable cars and long warranties, climbed 10.5% and 6.8% respectively. [View news story]
    What percentage of F and GM's sales come from Europe?
    Jan 16, 2013. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doubling The Return Of The S&P 500 Over 20 Years [View article]
    Ploutos,

    Is the low volatility stock index a proxy for Grantham's "high quality" stocks description?

    I not the yield on SPLV is higher than the S&P which likely explains in large part the longer term outperformance. I suspect it will always be higher yielding than the broader market.

    Thank you for the very interesting article.
    Jan 15, 2013. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. home prices rose 7.4% Y/Y in November, according to CoreLogic, the fastest pace since 2006. The company's pending index suggests the December read will tick up to 7.9%. Home prices are now off 26.8% from the peak, but up 9.6% from what looks to be the post-collapse low in February 2012. [View news story]
    Big bright spot for the economy. Get this fixed and balance sheets start to look a lot better.
    Jan 15, 2013. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • December Retail Sales+0.5% vs. +0.2% expected, 0.4% prior. Ex-auto +0.3% vs -0.1% expected. [View news story]
    regarded,

    Doug Short covers this in depth:

    http://bit.ly/W8bAFk
    "Now let's dig a bit deeper into the "real" data, adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population.

    The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data. I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes."
    Jan 15, 2013. 09:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unsurprisingly, iPhone chip suppliers are joining Apple in getting hit by the WSJ and Nikkei's order cut reports. CRUS -5%. QCOM -1.4%. BRCM -1.3%. SWKS -3.7%. TQNT -1.2%. AVGO -1.9%. Can Samsung (SSNLF.PK - +1.2% in Seoul), which just announced 100M cumulative Galaxy S phone sales, pick up the apparent slack for some of these companies? [View news story]
    This stock is down nearly 30% from its top or has to climb 40% to regain its peak and yet it appears to me that the owners of the stock are still in love with it. I find that amazing. From a market cap loss point of view it is literally quite incredible - as big as the entire GDP of New Zealand.

    The most amazing thing about this selloff is that it hasn't led to weakness overall. That was the great fear previously if it ever did happen.

    I suspect this stock could takeoff big in either direction depending upon its next two earning's reports.
    Jan 14, 2013. 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Overbought: It's Time To Raise Cash And Wait For A Pullback [View article]
    Joseph,

    Two interesting stories from FT Alphaville in addition to the above:

    http://on.ft.com/ZLRAth
    http://on.ft.com/10s38rw

    http://on.ft.com/ZLRD8g
    Jan 13, 2013. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Under-The-Radar Stock Picks From Billionaire Ken Fisher [View article]
    Does Fisher still use Price to Sales Ratios in his stock picking?

    It would be nice to see the PSR's for the above stocks.
    Jan 13, 2013. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Overbought: It's Time To Raise Cash And Wait For A Pullback [View article]
    JS,

    Interesting. I have similar feelings. Whenever I get bullish it is usually a short-term top.

    Sentiment surveys recently as well as fund flows are showing a very high level of bullishness.

    Here's Investor's Intelligence and OEX:

    http://bit.ly/xQNJ14

    All the other major surveys show a similar situation. Rare that we get this type of alignment in sentiment on the bullish side but the caveat is it can go on a long time which is what sucks in the last remaining bears.
    Jan 13, 2013. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
    Jeff,

    Thanks for taking this project on. I didn't realize it was such a huge undertaking until I started really digging in on this article.

    " This is not just a mechanical application of arithmetic, but that is a starting point."

    For me this is a really key point and I look forward to expanding my understanding of your thinking on the subject. I have been looking at it quite literally the way you have described, as I assumed that was the point.

    Once again kudos for the effort and the content especially in consideration of the price we have paid to get it :)
    Jan 13, 2013. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
    DD,

    Great observations. The beauty of this model is its simplicity which allows you to ask all kinds of what if's.

    I have similar thoughts to yours which basically boils down to the question of spread.

    With this model, is it ever possible to forecast a recession with Mr. Model while ZIRP is in place?

    Inflation at 6% and Unemployment at 6% with the current spread would get it close. I suspect the spread would be huge if this ever happened so I am not sure this scenario can occur.

    Seems to me the most important variable in this equation is the inflation rate that the FED uses. If inflation rises substantially then we must assume the FED will act on the short end. Will the long bond cooperate and rise?

    Can we get higher inflation without really strong growth?
    Jan 13, 2013. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Cycle Forecasting: The Superlative Results Of Robert F. Dieli [View article]
    Jeff,

    I thought the "I" in the quote was referring to you.

    " In the next installment I'll say more about how to use this information -- it is not just forecasting recessions."

    That would be great. I personally am very interested in hearing what you would do with this info from an actionable strategy point of view.

    I just listened to that video on the 2007/08 recession and frankly it was a weak explanation as to why the model was warning years early. Not saying it wasn't useful to know this but from an investor's point of view it's not exactly clear what clients were being advised to do for those that were paying attention at that time.

    Freddy makes a good point was the model saying the recession was over in early 2008?

    I look forward to it.

    Thank you.
    Jan 12, 2013. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,491 Comments
2,726 Likes