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GaltMachine

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  • U.S. Debt At 104% Of GDP Hits Another Record. Stocks, Gold Should Do Well On Slow Rate Hikes [View article]
    When Dick Cheney said "Deficits don't matter", I think he was on to something.
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrial Production slumps 0.6% [View news story]
    bbro,

    How do you strip out energy and its components from industrial production?

    Isn't it an important component of industrial production?

    I mean it was a huge part of the rise of industrial production since the last recession ended. I have no idea if this is recessionary data or not but it is one of the 4 measures that NBER uses for calling the business cycle.

    I understand there are other positives but should we be ignoring this? There are negative multiplier effects that come from a reduction in investment in the oil and gas areas which until this point were a real bright spot for the economy.

    Thanks!
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrial Production slumps 0.6% [View news story]
    Interesting. It peaked in Nov 2014 at 106.3. 4 straight months of decline.
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley lowers estimates on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    Even using a rudimentary tool like a "Quick Ratio" tells you that a capital intensive business like this is in the danger zone - currently less than 1.

    I am not sure how this improves over the year without raising some cash.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The CAPE Graph Really Shows: No, It's Not A Bubble [View article]
    Wallstreet,

    Great comment. To me it is really simple - there will be a recession at some point over the next 10 years and recessions usually slice the value of the market by about 30-40%. CAPE, Tobin's Q, Mkt Cap/GDP take this into account whereas forward operating PE's do nothing of the sort.

    CAPE is not a timing tool (I've made that mistake), it is a measurement that helps someone to assess where we are in the earning's business cycle and what we are paying for those earnings. Things always look the best, feel the best, and act most favorable at the peak!

    One of the all time great Farside cartoons:
    http://bit.ly/1IJf6lp

    I enjoy reading your comments.
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley lowers estimates on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    fiwiki,

    Took a quick look at the simple income statement on Yahoo for Tesla which showed a loss of just under $108 million dollars in Q4 last year. The annual loss was $294 million. Last 6 months losses were $185 million so losses have grown with sales. Not that unusual with a new product introduction but obviously the breakeven point for sales has to be multiples higher than it currently is which is why it will take a lost of cash-flow to further scale the business.

    http://yhoo.it/14JziO2
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales bounce less than expected in March [View news story]
    bbro,

    Understood I wasn't sure why you were breaking out gas sales separately in this thread.

    I prefer stuff cheese crackers myself.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley lowers estimates on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    "estimates don't matter. Short term stock price doesn't matter."

    Gravity doesn't matter either! Go SpaceX.

    ;)
    Apr 14, 2015. 10:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail sales bounce less than expected in March [View news story]
    bbro,

    Gasoline sales were a component in the RISE of retail sales previously.

    It's okay to choose subsets of data but it should be consistently applied in my opinion.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Silent On The Good ZEV News? [View article]
    cecil,

    Do you actually read anything that contradicts your viewpoint?

    This article was linked by Winfield yesterday in the Washington Post:

    "Tesla’s agreement to a $1.3 billion incentive package to build its factory set off a frenzy to prepare Nevadans for the jobs their taxes are now subsidizing at a rate of $190,000 per position.
    Steve Hill, who negotiated the deal for Sandoval, said that the state had protected itself in case Tesla’s workforce falls below agreed totals or it fails to invest the $3.5 billion it has committed. Every quarter, an audit of the jobs will be performed, Hill said, and if at least half the hires aren’t from Nevada, all the subsidies come off the table and Tesla would need to repay any benefits it received, with interest. In its first audit, Tesla said it had hired 455 people for construction jobs, 80 percent of whom were from Nevada.

    “The $3.5 billion of investment and the 50 percentage of Nevadans are light switches,” Hill said. “They either go on or they go off. And if they ever go off, it’s over.”"
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Silent On The Good ZEV News? [View article]
    manfredthree,

    "Where do you think Verizon and ATT would be if all spectrum use were wide-open rather than restricted to those to whom it is doled out by FCC ?"

    These companies paid money for this right which is not corporate welfare or do I have to spell that out? I am not saying I agree with the practice but this wasn't giving away money by any stretch. The focus is Tesla since the article is about Tesla but heck I agree any company receiving subsidies especially Ford,Nissan, GM, etc. should not get it.

    Is that clear enough?

    "FCC Raises $44.9 Billion in U.S. Wireless Spectrum Sale
    Winning Bidders in Record Spectrum Auction Will Be Revealed Friday"

    "http://on.wsj.com/1CR0hFp
    The Federal Communications Commission’s biggest ever auction of wireless spectrum closed Thursday and drew a record $44.9 billion in bids, a boon for taxpayers and a sign of the growing cost of supporting Americans’ smartphone habit.

    The haul is more than twice as much as the government notched in its last major sale of spectrum in 2008, back when Apple Inc.’s iPhone was only about a year old. Winners will be disclosed Friday, FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler said."
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market May Be Underestimating Tesla's Potential In Europe [View article]
    geo-eng,

    The price of gas in Canada is not the price of gas in the US. It would seem your prices are much higher because of taxes or the lack of competition.

    In the US gas prices have fallen y/y tracking the oil price fairly closely which means they have dropped about 40%. I am not saying this applies to the rest of the world right now but that's mainly because of much higher taxes. Lower prices are good for the poorest people amongst us and I am not sure why anyone would be against that. Cheap transportation and cheap operating costs make a huge difference to a low income person.

    "Falling oil prices pull gasoline prices again
    Gary Strauss, USA TODAY 6:07 p.m. EDT March 16, 2015"

    "The low price of oil will not stop me from buying an EV as soon as I can afford a Tesla."

    Awesome! I hope you do - it would be good for everyone hence my premise.
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    Here's the link to Elon's tweet on the pricing referenced in that article. It's amazing that he made this statement two days ago:

    http://bit.ly/1CQ7jKI

    I give kudos/hat-tip to EnergyTech's idea about Elon using this strategy as a way of having the actual starting price of the Model 3 be $10k higher and allow Elon to still be "true" to his word.

    This would clear up a lot of the impossibility of meeting an actual $35k price point if the real price is $45k or more before "gas savings".

    Energy Tech deserves a Pulitzer if this indeed happens :)
    Apr 13, 2015. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market May Be Underestimating Tesla's Potential In Europe [View article]
    whosside,

    "You haven't been paying attention."

    Setting aside the rudeness of your remark, I have been paying attention and we still have record production in the US even with nearly half of those rigs taken down. The worldwide oil market is fungible.

    The laws of supply and demand for a product with highly inelastic demand (like oil) tell you that a reduction in demand will be followed by a steep drop in price http://bit.ly/1CQ3aXd

    which is exactly what has happened to the price of oil especially when combined with an increase in supply. We have just witnessed this exact thing over the past 8 months.

    That quote above says 15 years from now and it is not my supposition. My premise is that if this were replicated worldwide then you can readily assume that a 40% drop in the demand for oil would mean that the price of oil would remain rock-bottom in the decades ahead or would hover around the average price of production. Gasoline prices would follow the price of oil downward especially when combined with excess supply. Refiners have to refine to survive.

    I have no idea why you find this simple economic concept to be so controversial - its entirely predictable and a very positive net result for the increased use of electric vehicles. I am all in favor of the electric vehicle displacing demand for gasoline and oil because it would help everyone.
    Apr 13, 2015. 03:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market May Be Underestimating Tesla's Potential In Europe [View article]
    jj1937,

    " I tried to get my money back on the Model X. "

    May I ask why?

    Thanks
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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