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GaltMachine

GaltMachine
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  • The CBO Bombshell [View article]
    I suspect that if this policy were called Bushcare, you would be using this information to argue exactly the opposite point.

    :)

    So we go from not enough work and a job crisis to being overworked and experiencing "job lock" in less than a month. Seriously?

    To quote Sigmund Freud: "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

    "Job Lock" - that's funny & pathetic - a rare combination.
    Feb 10 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The CBO Bombshell [View article]
    They just need to craft a good marketing campaign to get the message out there:

    "Obamacare - work less so you can mooch even more!"

    ;)
    Feb 10 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Juds,
    Of all of the most widely cited and useless of indicators, forward PE's are near the top:
    http://bit.ly/LCp24E
    "Forward P/E Ratio for S&P 500 was also below long-term averages on October 9, 2007
    However, it is interesting to note that on the date (October 9, 2007) of the record high close for the S&P 500, the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the index was also well below both the 5-year and 10-year averages at that point in time. Although the P/E ratio was below the recent averages on that date, the value of the S&P 500 declined by more than 50% over the following 17 months."
    I noted the back and forth above with F&G and the negative comments regarding CAPE so I thought I would pipe in on the subject. The forward PE argument is a faith based argument.
    The one sure way to succeed as an investor in the long-term would be to have bought lots of stock when P/E's are in the sub 10 range. Unfortunately those times tend to be rare and require great courage to act!

    Good luck.

    By the way, I hope your forecast and Eric's is wrong. We can't afford another round of that kind of economic pain.
    Feb 6 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Economic Recovery Stalling Out? [View article]
    Galt,

    Sorry I should have been clearer by what I took away from the article which was that inflation is the biggest driver of real interest rates.

    Add inflation to real rates of about 1.9% on average and you get expected long bond rates - I thought that was very useful.

    So inflation at its current level suggests that the recent fall in rates is actually what should happen.
    Feb 3 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Economic Recovery Stalling Out? [View article]
    For anyone concerned about their bond funds and bond allocations relative to interest rates, this review of the subject by Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Wealth courtesy of John Mauldin was excellent:

    http://bit.ly/1afrKcf

    Provocative.
    Feb 2 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone XL report reignites battle over pipeline's impact [View news story]
    Just Say Yes!
    Feb 1 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Good Models Go Bad [View article]
    bbro,

    Do you have an update on your 52 week rolling NSA jobless claims metric?

    Curious as to whether it is telling you anything. Noticed that since about August when we hit a real low the numbers have been creeping up.

    Thanks!
    Jan 31 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Decline: Get A Grip! [View article]
    Contrarian,

    While I may not agree with your forecast, I am puzzled by the investors who are ignoring recent history - S&P sold off from about 1550 to 666 in 2009 which is about a 57% decline not far off your current forecast.

    http://bit.ly/1exwqpQ

    I guess it is recency bias at work.

    Of course it has rebounded and beyond since then so if you went to sleep from 2007 till now you would be smiling.
    Jan 29 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • December Existing Home Sales: The Housing Bear Market Is Back [View article]
    bbro,

    People confuse the difference between the median home price of existing versus new homes.

    Although in theory rising home prices are good, it's a double-edged sword since it makes housing less affordable based upon the 20% down-payment and the financing cost.

    Until we get no-money down again the drag from rising prices could be a real problem for affordability. Best-case scenario, I think is one in which housing is back to a utility rather than an investment and maintains a stable value.
    Jan 26 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Sunday reads [View news story]
    Shouldn't France be more concerned about changing its attitude toward success?
    Jan 26 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Munis the best value in fixed income [View news story]
    Tack,

    Thanks for the clarification - I suspected as much. That's one of those adjectives with investment connotations :)
    Jan 13 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Munis the best value in fixed income [View news story]
    Tack,

    How do you define "top"?

    Are you recommending these?

    thanks.
    Jan 11 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brutal week for retail sales [View news story]
    "Sales fell over 5% on the year-over-year comparison."

    I believe that is an error - the reference is to week to week. Y/y was positive according to the other post.

    http://bit.ly/1dcuCan
    Jan 7 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uncertainty abounds as healthcare deadline looms [View news story]
    Blame Bush?

    :)
    Dec 22 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar releases dealer stats for November [View news story]
    This seems so bizarre. CAT was sometimes called a "bellwether" stock.

    Is it just mining that is the problem for them?
    Dec 19 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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