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GaltMachine

GaltMachine
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  • Model S P85D road test gets off to shaky start [View news story]
    Whoa!

    "A new car shouldn't have problems when you’ve owned it for less than a month. Yet Consumer Reports' brand-new $127,000 Tesla Model S P85 D, with the fancy retractable door handles refused to let us in, effectively rendering the car undriveable. (Read "Why We Bought a Tesla Model S.")

    After we’d owned the P85 D for a mere 27 days, with just over 2,300 miles on the odometer, the driver-side door handle failed. The door handles in the Model S retract electrically so they rest flush with the sides of the car when they’re not in use. Walk up to the car with the key fob in your pocket, and the handles move out to allow you to grip them.

    Except this time the one on the driver’s door of our P85D didn’t pop out, leaving us no way to open the door from the outside. And significantly, with the car sensing a problem, wouldn’t drive. We were able to move the car a short distance, thanks to the smartphone app that allows us to unlock the car and authorize two minutes of keyless driving, requiring a spry staffer to crawl behind the steering wheel from the passenger seat."
    May 18, 2015. 09:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S P85D road test gets off to shaky start [View news story]
    Why can't it be opened remotely?
    May 18, 2015. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    Jeff,

    Good to know!

    Thanks.
    May 18, 2015. 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    Jeff,

    "We do not know how many are in this trade, but the leverage ratios and systemic risk do not rate to be like 1998. "

    I don't think we know this to be true. As far as I know there is zero disclosure on derivative trades to this day.

    What was intriguing about 1998 is that it all happened in the midst of US "prosperity" and if it had been allowed to runs its course perhaps we would have had a much more stable financial system in the long term by reintroducing Moral Hazard. We'll never know for sure because the person who prevents a fire is not as celebrated as the person who puts one out ;)
    May 17, 2015. 09:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    "Why the spike in rates?"

    I am in the process of re-reading "When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management"
    http://amzn.to/1HaIeww

    So this question is very timely. In a ZIRP world where people are chasing yield, derivative contracts become the de-facto way of trading this risk and this volatility. It is very likely that there are positions out there that have been levered up 50 times or more that are bleeding to death as they try to sell at all costs. Whether this leads to contagion or not is not clear. It happened in 1998 and outside of a few connected individuals no one in the real world knew about how close the financial system came to ceasing its normal function.

    Scary read and the key elements back then were low volatility, incredible leverage that went unmeasured by the FED, historically low interest rates (by the standards in place then), sovereign debt risks and currency devaluations ("Asian Crisis", Russian default), and the ability to carry at near zero cost of interest combined with what was considered a strong economy - all those ingredients exist today once again.

    Something to think about - history rhymes but it doesn't repeat.
    May 17, 2015. 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hilsenrath: Growth hiccups vex Fed yet again [View news story]
    "finds "no firm evidence" of such a problem."

    Fits the man-made global warming theory as well but just like this situation they won't admit it ;)
    May 16, 2015. 11:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride Continues [View article]
    Surfer,

    "And for people who say the guy is an egoist? He was pretty low key going into a Subway Sandwich shop in Midtown Houston that was empty save him and me."

    That's because like most narcissists he doesn't waste time talking to people that can't do anything for him.

    In cowboy boots you can be a couple of inches taller even in your average dress shoe it adds some height. I myself gain about 2 inches when I wear boots or dress shoes.

    I am not saying you didn't see him but the height is up for debate - having said that I can't believe I am actually writing this gaaag!
    May 14, 2015. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride Continues [View article]
    "by the time the model 3 is released, this stock will be trading at at least $500."

    You are being way to conservative here. More like $10,000/share!

    Of course that "by the time" thing assumes that the model 3 will be released ;)
    May 14, 2015. 03:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride Continues [View article]
    Randy,

    "Comparing employee numbers to legacy carmakers is not meaningful unless the head count at dealers and gas stations is included."

    Only to you is this not relevant. There is no way to fudge the number of employees which makes it a completely relevant way of comparing companies in similar industries to each especially cars.

    If TSLA chooses to vertically integrate on the assumption that that is a better way to go then so be it but you can't ignore the labor costs mandated by following this approach. In fact, you can commend the other car companies for running a far more efficient business model because they outsource so much overhead as reflected by the metric of revenue/employee.
    May 14, 2015. 03:17 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride Continues [View article]
    surfer,

    Dr. Google says he is 5ft 11 inchs. Maybe you spoke with someone else or he was wearing heels.

    http://bit.ly/1IDBnQq
    May 14, 2015. 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turns Out A Tesla Supercharger Costs 2 Or 3 Times What Elon Musk Said [View article]
    That's a great read!

    "Tesla is not the only high-volume lithium-ion player in the market; in fact, they’re somewhat late to the game. Samsung and BYD are Asia’s largest battery manufacturers and currently represent the low-cost suppliers of the industry. While there are some questions around battery quality and reliability and certainly issues with razor thin (if not negative) margins on the manufacturing of these batteries, one only has to look to the solar industry to see the formidable impact of the Chinese and Asia’s networked supply chain and production powerhouse and what that can do to world prices overnight. So Tesla’s $5 billion Gigafactory, for all of its cost savings and economies of scale, could be put out of business before it ever opens its doors."

    "It’s difficult to predict who will win the grid-storage war at this point. In the beginning, we’ll probably see a great number of companies take to the battlefield, each armed with a different technology. But while Tesla may win some of the early battles, thanks to its flashy marketing, it won’t win the war armed with lithium-ion batteries. Real innovation is needed to take battery storage to the next level and for that investors would be wise to bet on the smaller and more innovative companies on the battlefield, like Alevo and Eos."
    May 14, 2015. 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride Continues [View article]
    Give credit to Dana for a taking a fair-minded approach on this article - something for bulls and bears to mull over here. I appreciate the balanced commentary and the reasonable skepticsim being expressed over CAPEX - the math of cash burn is not complicated.

    There is no doubt that the company needs to raise cash to avoid having a "Going Concern" note from the auditors. Either debt or equity or both at some point shortly. With the recent strength in the stock the time is ripe to make this happen.
    May 14, 2015. 12:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Pressure Increases For Big Second Half [View article]
    RSI has broken passed 70 which puts it on the way overbought area and very likely for a substantial pullback after this huge runup.
    May 13, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlanta Fed Q2 GDP forecast dips [View news story]
    Interesting. If we have two quarters of negative growth most people think that that would be called a recession but not necessarily as the NBER has a unique way of defining recessions.

    It would be intriguing if we had two negative quarters and the market still took it all in stride. That would be noteworthy.
    May 13, 2015. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond ETFs prep in case of meltdown [View news story]
    Tack,

    Kind of what I was thinking. "Perceived" illiquidity plus panic plus interest rate fears would lead to irrational selling and large discounts to book.

    Do you see any evidence of this happening during the recent interest rate action?

    Thanks!
    May 13, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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