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  • Stocks and oil give up gains  [View news story]
    Mfitz nailed this analysis this morning.
    Jan 19, 2016. 12:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Update For The S&P 500: Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip' Or 'Sell The Rally'?  [View article]

    I am not necessarily overtly bearish and I do feel like a rally is due. However, I am also humble enough to know that prognostication about the future tends to be difficult and generally ends up embarrassing the predictor.

    Case in point, August 2008 in the midst of the "Great Recession" (not sure what was so great about it) the FED raised estimates for GDP and GDP itself was revised upwards - 2.5% to 2.9%!

    It was only years later that that upward data was revised downward dramatically which was far too late for those of us looking for a recession indicator to trigger a change in their equity position.

    The FED has never forecasted a recession in its history prior to its onset because it is both a political vehicle and secretive about its motives.

    Wheres does it leave us as investors?

    Hopelessly confused and in my case prone to buy and hold with a nice allocation to cash and bonds at all times.
    Jan 18, 2016. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Provide A Floor For Stocks?  [View article]
    "High yield debt stress remains contained to energy issues. This is a focal point of current concerns, with some asking if this is a replay of 2008 and subprime lending."

    How can someone possibly make a statement like this by pointing to a few charts as proof?

    It is a likely side-effect that the banks have tightened lending standards and increased reserves in anticipation of write-offs that have yet to reveal themselves. Therefore the rate of lending for new loans will be curtailed and lending standards tightened which does have an impact upon the broader economy. It is not just energy loans that are not being given out, all junk bond issues are meeting resistance and funding is dropping.

    You don't need a "credit crisis" to have an impact on the economy. This idea of "containment" being applied to a multi-variate system as complex as our modern economy is simply ludicrous.
    Jan 18, 2016. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James A. Kostohryz Positions For 2016: An Upside Surprise For The Year?  [View article]

    "Google it.

    Massive short opportunities? I guess you know more than those companies. Good luck with that."

    So there is no proof statement for this. I am a BMW owner if they stopped selling Gas powered cars (ICE) they would lose me as a customer and I guarantee you that I am not the only one.

    Electric cars are not going to be cheaper than ICE vehicles for a very long time so the thesis is both obvious and clear from both a revenue and profit point of view.

    A combination of ICE, hybrids, and pure EV's is the way to go so I don't believe BMW is crazy enough to do this but dumber things have happened.
    Jan 16, 2016. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James A. Kostohryz Positions For 2016: An Upside Surprise For The Year?  [View article]

    " BMW and about two other major automakers have already announced that by 2020 ALL of their new models will be electric. ALL of them."

    Where's the proof statement for this? What is a "new model"?

    If true, then these companies will be massive short opportunities.
    Jan 16, 2016. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brace for ugly energy company earnings results, analysts say  [View news story]

    I agree. I think there is a very good chance it takes out the low from 2009 of around $41. Certainly looks like it could bottom out in the price range from 2000-2004 of the mid $20's given where oil prices are going to be for the next little while.

    I pity people that are long XLE but at some point it will be quite the buy for the rest of us.
    Jan 16, 2016. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brace for ugly energy company earnings results, analysts say  [View news story]
    Maybe XLE has a washout this quarter even after the carnage that has happened. The next 6 months could be an awesome time to open a long term position.
    Jan 16, 2016. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]

    Especially in comparison to "consensus".
    Jan 15, 2016. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #92  [View instapost]
    Sometimes down is down!

    Machines, Algos and Trend and Momo traders don't care about whether a market has a positive or a negative tick they just want a lot of ticks (volatility) going in a confirmed direction and then they just pour on the gasoline and burn it until the trend flames out.

    Real humans can't compete in a market like this and if you can't sleep at night with the allocation you currently have then you should never have had that allocation in the first place.

    Most people should have an advisor to talk them through periods like this - someone like FG perhaps? People become market timers when markets are bearish and buy and holders when markets are bullish that's human nature - Fear & Greed!

    I have always held a lot of high quality bonds as an insurance policy for times like this and that's the way we explained it to clients when I was an RIA for Bernstein Global.

    Most people want to buy their insurance after a fire has started.
    Jan 15, 2016. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • White House proposes committing $4B to self-driving cars  [View news story]
    Another government slush fund for connected people.

    Once again only Mad Max can save the world!
    Jan 14, 2016. 08:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's not 2015 anymore: Under Armour, Netflix, Tesla continue to slide  [View news story]
    Vicious circle commences for TSLA - needs capital - price falls - needs more capital - dilution will be immense!

    The lower the stock price the more expensive the offering becomes for existing shareholders but as they say "how much would you pay for a glass of water when you are dying of thirst in the desert?".
    Jan 14, 2016. 10:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #91  [View instapost]

    The idea I was trying to convey is that the algos don't care about "fundamentals and economic indicators" because they trade on directional momentum. Meaning they are only focused on the broad market direction and when that direction points downward definitively look out!

    The converse is true if the momo is upward and the fundamentals and economic indicators are good the "buy the dip" is the best way to go because the algos will support it.

    So if fundamentals and economic indicators are turning negative (I believe that - the selloff in railroad and airlines today was astonishing outside of a recession especially with energy prices so low!) and the directional momo points lower you will have algos and humans pointing in the same direction which we have not had for a very long time. Algos are emotionless and look for profit regardless of anything so down is the same as up.

    Humans on the other hand can be prone to panic!
    Jan 13, 2016. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #91  [View instapost]

    I am trying to remember the retracement level in the S&P that was going to be your warning event.

    Do I recall it being 12%?

    Something like 1880 or 1820?

    If the selloff continues and hits that level what would you advise?

    I was surprised by the reversal today, seems to me that the market trend has definitely turned momentum in the downward direction regardless of fundamentals and economic indicators. The algos and momentum trading strategies could make this very ugly, very fast.

    The action in the Transports today was astonishing! Record low fuel prices and the airlines & railroads sell off like the world is ending. WTF?
    Jan 13, 2016. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market jitters wallop transportation stocks  [View news story]
    Whoa! With record low fuel costs you would think this would be jet fuel to the sector. Something is clearly not right with the picture!
    Jan 13, 2016. 04:49 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks resume slide; consumer discretionary has worst day since August  [View news story]
    Nowhere to hide right now except high quality bonds and treasuries. mREITs taking a beating as well.
    Jan 13, 2016. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment