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GaltMachine

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  • Aug ISM New York Report on Business: 51.4 down from 55.2 in July. [View news story]
    "Wednesday, September 5, 9:46 AM Aug ISM New York Report on Business: 51.4 down from 55.2 in July."

    They always make you look silly when they correct it without acknowledging their original error.
    Sep 5, 2012. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx (FDX) slashes its FQ1 earnings forecast to $1.37-$1.43/share from an earlier estimate of $1.45-$1.60, and vs. Street consensus of $1.56. "Weakness in the global economy constrained revenue growth at FedEx Express more than expected in earlier guidance." Shares -4% AH. (PR[View news story]
    TP,

    Apparently "bad" is the new "good" so who knows how markets react to news anymore.
    Sep 4, 2012. 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Facebook's 8-K: Though Mark Zuckerberg won't be selling for a while, employees will get to sell a little sooner: the lockup expiration for 234M shares held by Facebook workers has been moved up to Oct. 29 from Nov. 14. 749M shares will still become eligible for sale on Nov. 14 (not including those held by Zuck), followed by 156M on Dec. 14 and 47M on May 18, 2013. [View news story]
    Price = the intersection of supply and demand.

    This could get really ugly, really quick. Or should I say uglier?

    :)
    Sep 4, 2012. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx (FDX) slashes its FQ1 earnings forecast to $1.37-$1.43/share from an earlier estimate of $1.45-$1.60, and vs. Street consensus of $1.56. "Weakness in the global economy constrained revenue growth at FedEx Express more than expected in earlier guidance." Shares -4% AH. (PR[View news story]
    That's a pretty big cut in forecast - 10%. Bellwether?
    Sep 4, 2012. 05:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks slipped after manufacturing contracted at its sharpest rate in at least three years, another signal the economy is losing momentum. But shares bounced off earlier lows after Apple sent out event invitations hinting the iPhone 5 is on its way. Crude oil fell 1.2%, tracking losses in broader markets; gold closed at five-month highs. NYSE advancers led decliners three to two. [View news story]
    bbro,

    "Actually SAAR is a leading indicator for me"

    Ok. The LEI from the Conference Board does not include car sales as a leading component.

    The ISM new orders has a huge weighting in this index. Second largest after "average weekly hours".
    Sep 4, 2012. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks slipped after manufacturing contracted at its sharpest rate in at least three years, another signal the economy is losing momentum. But shares bounced off earlier lows after Apple sent out event invitations hinting the iPhone 5 is on its way. Crude oil fell 1.2%, tracking losses in broader markets; gold closed at five-month highs. NYSE advancers led decliners three to two. [View news story]
    bbro,

    Link to car sales report from Calculated Risk complete with a great graph:

    http://bit.ly/R4gJiU
    Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 14.52 million SAAR in August. That is up 17% from August 2011, and up 3% from the sales rate last month.

    This was above the consensus forecast of 14.3 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
    Read more at http://bit.ly/NOLQJw
    Sep 4, 2012. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks slipped after manufacturing contracted at its sharpest rate in at least three years, another signal the economy is losing momentum. But shares bounced off earlier lows after Apple sent out event invitations hinting the iPhone 5 is on its way. Crude oil fell 1.2%, tracking losses in broader markets; gold closed at five-month highs. NYSE advancers led decliners three to two. [View news story]
    bbro,

    I think SAAR is considered a coincident indicator. ISM new orders should capture auto manufacturing in addition to everything else which today was another weak number.
    Sep 4, 2012. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After three "jobless recoveries" in the last twenty years, NYT's Hedrick Smith suggests it's time to take a lesson from Henry Ford. History has proven Ford's virtuous circle to be effective, and if business managers "give the middle class a better share of the nation’s economic gains... the economy will grow faster." [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/Tepbx0
    "Hill Poll: Voters say second term undeserved, country is worse off
    By Sheldon Alberts - 09/04/12 05:00 AM ET

    A majority of voters believe the country is worse off today than it was four years ago and that President Obama does not deserve reelection, according to a new poll for The Hill.

    Fifty-two percent of likely voters say the nation is in “worse condition” now than in September 2008, while 54 percent say Obama does not deserve reelection based solely on his job performance.

    Only 31 percent of voters believe the nation is in “better condition,” while 15 percent say it is “about the same,” the poll found. Just 40 percent of voters said Obama deserves reelection."
    Sep 4, 2012. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.6 vs. 50.0 consensus and 49.8 prior. Prices index 54.0 vs. 39.5 prior. Employment 51.6 vs. 52.0. Inventories 53.0 vs. 49.0. New orders 47.1 vs. 48.0. [View news story]
    Some really good charts on the ISM sub-components from Bespoke:

    http://bit.ly/UpBBjy
    Sep 4, 2012. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.6 vs. 50.0 consensus and 49.8 prior. Prices index 54.0 vs. 39.5 prior. Employment 51.6 vs. 52.0. Inventories 53.0 vs. 49.0. New orders 47.1 vs. 48.0. [View news story]
    jw/bbro,

    Hussman covered the moving average topic in last week's letter:

    http://bit.ly/TifThR
    "One of the questions we often receive is why we don’t simply lift our hedges when the market advances above some moving average or another, and replace them when the market breaks below those moving averages. Certainly, when one looks a chart, extended market advances always break above various moving averages, and extended market declines always break below various moving averages, so simple trend-following strategies seem utterly self-evident. Unfortunately, if you actually take that strategy to historical data, the results typically aren’t nearly as compelling. Moreover, once any amount of slippage or transaction costs are taken into account, the most widely-followed strategies generally underperform a passive buy-and-hold strategy over time, and often don’t even manage downside risk particularly well."
    Sep 4, 2012. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The bear case for stocks may make sense, but how do you square it with BAML's survey showing overwhelming bearishness (the highest since 1985) amongst professional managers? Such extremes in negative sentiment have been great buying opportunities in the past. (h/t tradefast[View news story]
    The chart is dumb without the S&P500 overlay.

    What it appears to show is that markets peak right at relative bullish peaks and then sell-off. Take a look at 2000 and Jan 2007.

    You could just as easily conclude that the recent bullish top for this index once again marked the top on the market.

    Although in theory this really could be a buy signal, then again so is any other piece of data - it all depends upon your mindset :)
    Sep 4, 2012. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.6 vs. 50.0 consensus and 49.8 prior. Prices index 54.0 vs. 39.5 prior. Employment 51.6 vs. 52.0. Inventories 53.0 vs. 49.0. New orders 47.1 vs. 48.0. [View news story]
    bbro,

    Have you ever graphed your "recession composite" versus the performance of the S&P 500?

    Does it give you enough warning to make changes to your portfolio if you feel it is warranted?

    Thanks.
    Sep 4, 2012. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After three "jobless recoveries" in the last twenty years, NYT's Hedrick Smith suggests it's time to take a lesson from Henry Ford. History has proven Ford's virtuous circle to be effective, and if business managers "give the middle class a better share of the nation’s economic gains... the economy will grow faster." [View news story]
    TA,

    "and do not bolster your argument."

    I made no such argument, I simply presented the price.

    I am amazed at how rabidly partisan you are exactly the opposite of what I expected.
    Sep 4, 2012. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After three "jobless recoveries" in the last twenty years, NYT's Hedrick Smith suggests it's time to take a lesson from Henry Ford. History has proven Ford's virtuous circle to be effective, and if business managers "give the middle class a better share of the nation’s economic gains... the economy will grow faster." [View news story]
    IDk,

    Not only are you rude, you should check your own facts before accusing someone else of being wrong on theirs.

    The day before inauguration:
    $1.85/gallon
    http://bit.ly/OULvYx
    Average gas prices--January 19, 2009
    Jan 21, 2009 4:29 PM
    Sep 4, 2012. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.6 vs. 50.0 consensus and 49.8 prior. Prices index 54.0 vs. 39.5 prior. Employment 51.6 vs. 52.0. Inventories 53.0 vs. 49.0. New orders 47.1 vs. 48.0. [View news story]
    "ISM's New Orders Index registered 47.1 percent in August, which is a decrease of 0.9 percentage point when compared to the July reading of 48 percent. This represents a contraction in new orders for the third time since April 2009, when the New Orders Index registered 46.8 percent. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars)."

    This is a relatively sharp slowdown from earlier in the year.
    Sep 4, 2012. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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