More on jobless claims: At 350K, it's the lowest level since March 2008, but the number is likely skewed by seasonal adjustment issues (last week included July 4). Look for a makeup bounce in the print next week. S&P futures are showing no reaction, remaining -0.7%. [View news story]
bbro,
I posted this question on the other thread:
Apparently there were a bunch of factors which caused the skewing and the conclusion is that not much has change.
I note the NSA numbers were up 70,000 w/w to 440k which seems like a nasty number but I don't know how to interpret it.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Season Disappoint? [View article]
JP,
I recall when the bellwether CAT came out with a strong forecast for the world economy in December of last year. I also recall them saying something similar in 2008.
It definitely can fall hard and fast - just look at last year and we didn't even come close to recession.
Next time I get lucky enough to get an entry point in the 20's I will be loading up the truck :)
MBA Mortgage Applications:-2.1% vs. -6.7% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.79% from 3.86%. [View news story]
I mean that is some awful data assuming the housing market is recovering.
Pandora (P -3.4%) releases its June audience metrics. Listener hours totaled 1.08B, +77% Y/Y but -2% from May, which had one extra day. The company's share of U.S. radio listening is pegged at 5.98%, compared with 5.8% in May and 3.37% in the year-ago period. Active listeners came in at 54.5M vs. 53.3M in May and 36.1M in June '11. Pandora is selling off, but so are other volatile Internet names. YELP -7.4%. GRPN -5.6%. ZNGA -3.6%. (May metrics) [View news story]
Funny,
If we do get to a recession I wouldn't be surprised if all of these stocks end up at sub $2 prices.
GRPN I could see falling to zero and joining last decades dotbombs.
More on Alcoa (AA): Revenue is essentially flat sequentially with a 4% decline in realized aluminum prices, -10% Y/Y with an 18% annual decline in realized prices. The company maintains its view of a global aluminum supply deficit of 7% in 2012. Earnings "beat" analyst forecasts that have come in sharply over just the past week. Shares +0.2% AH. [View news story]
"Earnings "beat" analyst forecasts that have come in sharply over just the past weak"
May Consumer Credit:+$17.1B vs. +$8.5B expected and $10.0B prior (revised). The month saw the biggest jump in consumer credit since December. Non-revolving debt (student loans, car and personal loans) up $9.1B, while revolving debt (credit cards) increased $8.0B. [View news story]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Season Disappoint? [View article]
Tack,
The ECB is not the FED. They can't do that yet. So I surmise it will only be possible for the necessary fiscal/legal changes to occur only after the near collapse not before.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Season Disappoint? [View article]
Dibber,
Funny not that long ago Dexia was considered the strongest bank in Europe based upon stress tests and Tier 1 capital. Yet it didn't take more than about 3 months before it was taken over by the Belgian government because it was insolvent.
On this point, I would have to agree with you wholeheartedly. The market is saying the banks are insolvent from a shareholder's perspective which means the commons will be wiped out once they have to raise the capital to meet Basel 3 requirements. The issue is where are they going to get the money to do this with the sovereigns borrowing crowding out all the private requirements?
June Employment Trends Index: +5.6% Y/Y to 107.47, vs. 108.23 in May. (revised). The report cites slow employment growth is likely to continue through the summer. [View news story]
bbro,
I haven't really followed this one all that much but that month to month drop seems unusually large unless it was skewed a bit by the earlier part of the year's warm weather impact. Does suggest though that the current rate of job growth is going to be status quo or less for the upcoming summer unless I am reading this wrong.
"The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) dipped to 107.47 in June, down from the revised figure of 108.23 in May. The June figure is 5.6 percent higher than a year ago.
“The Employment Trends Index has been flat since February, suggesting that slow employment growth is likely to continue through the summer,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Since there is little hope of acceleration in the pace of economic activity any time soon, these weak labor market conditions are likely to persist for the coming months.”
June’s drop in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from four of the eight components. The declining indicators – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get.”
Chinese inflation slows to a 29-month low of 2.2% in June vs. 3% in May and expectations of 2.3%. Even more striking, the CPI fell0.6% during June - the 3rd consecutive monthly negative print. Beijing certainly has more room to ease policy further, should it wish to. Shanghai -0.5% and Hong Kong -0.4% on the back of declines in the West on Friday. [View news story]
The inverted Chinese curve last year really was signalling bad news for their economy.
The reason for the worsening jobs picture, writes Floyd Norris in the NYT, is because everybody looks at seasonally adjusted figures. "But those adjustments most likely overstate reality." Pre-adjustment, the private sector added 800K jobs/month in the last 3 months, while in June, the number of jobs rose by 1.8M Y/Y. Expect a poor July and August, a pick-up in September and an impressive October. [View news story]
I found this interesting nugget from a Jan 1980 Harris Poll:
http://bit.ly/ON4sgo President Carter so dominates the American political scene now that his margin over Ronald Reagan in a post-Iowa trial heat has risen to an overwhelming 65-31 percent. And against George Bush, the GOP candidate who finished first in the recent Iowa caucuses, Carter leads by only a slightly lower 62-32 percent. These latest ABC News - Harris Survey results, taken among a cross section of 1,195 likely voters on January 22nd, dramatically illustrate the incredible political comeback of President Carter. Only four months ago, Reagan held a 50-45 percent lead over Carter. This means that a 5 point deficit has been turned into a 34 point lead over this short span of time. This is the largest lead President Carter has held over any Republican since July 1976, when he was 39 points ahead of President Gerald Ford. "
Also in late October 1980, Carter had an 8 point lead with Registered voters according to Gallup before losing by 10 points on election day. http://bit.ly/NcZesI
The reason for the worsening jobs picture, writes Floyd Norris in the NYT, is because everybody looks at seasonally adjusted figures. "But those adjustments most likely overstate reality." Pre-adjustment, the private sector added 800K jobs/month in the last 3 months, while in June, the number of jobs rose by 1.8M Y/Y. Expect a poor July and August, a pick-up in September and an impressive October. [View news story]
Tack,
"As investors, it's rather simple: invest as if you were, henceforth, going to be living in a socialistic country, because you are."
Well if I believed that I would sell everything because that would surely be the death of our economy and its productive class.
Most people in this country think the economy is sick and going in the wrong direction which is why I think it will be a landslide for Romney. We have a slow patch now and it is just a question of whether we started going in the positive direction again which the recent data suggests is not the case, otherwise the trajectory is moving pretty quick to the zero percent growth line. In any event, I don't think the economy is going to be a positive for the President at this point.
The reason for the worsening jobs picture, writes Floyd Norris in the NYT, is because everybody looks at seasonally adjusted figures. "But those adjustments most likely overstate reality." Pre-adjustment, the private sector added 800K jobs/month in the last 3 months, while in June, the number of jobs rose by 1.8M Y/Y. Expect a poor July and August, a pick-up in September and an impressive October. [View news story]
bbro,
You confirm what is more or less the case in every election. Most people vote along party lines regardless of the performance of the incumbent assuming there is one. Voter turnout is going to be the defining factor in this election.
I don't think there are many real "undecided" voters. Everyone knows who the President is and what he has accomplished to this point, fairly or unfairly, and therefore they are really only undecided about Romney.
Which to me means with about 10% of the electorate in this category, it could be a wipeout for Romney if he can be seen as a good enough choice. Dick Morris, Clinton's former pollster, has analyzed all elections in the post-1964 period and found that undecideds break for the new guy most of the time which is why he is predicting a wipeout as happened to Carter who was well ahead in most polls as late as Sept. Morris evokes a visceral reaction but he tends to know his stuff.
Which is why "hope and change" has morphed into destroy, diminish, and eviscerate Romney before he can tell his story.
This will definitely be a very divisive, nasty and interesting election campaign.
This a link to the Morris article if you are interested:
More on jobless claims: At 350K, it's the lowest level since March 2008, but the number is likely skewed by seasonal adjustment issues (last week included July 4). Look for a makeup bounce in the print next week. S&P futures are showing no reaction, remaining -0.7%. [View news story]
I posted this question on the other thread:
Apparently there were a bunch of factors which caused the skewing and the conclusion is that not much has change.
I note the NSA numbers were up 70,000 w/w to 440k which seems like a nasty number but I don't know how to interpret it.
Does that seem meaningful to you?
Initial Jobless Claims: 350K vs. 375K consensus (prior week revised to 376K from 374K). Continuing claims -14K at 3.31M. [View news story]
Apparently there were a bunch of factors which caused the skewing and the conclusion is that not much has change.
I note the NSA numbers were up 70,000 w/w to 440k which seems like a nasty number but I don't know how to interpret it.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Season Disappoint? [View article]
I recall when the bellwether CAT came out with a strong forecast for the world economy in December of last year. I also recall them saying something similar in 2008.
It definitely can fall hard and fast - just look at last year and we didn't even come close to recession.
Next time I get lucky enough to get an entry point in the 20's I will be loading up the truck :)
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.1% vs. -6.7% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.79% from 3.86%. [View news story]
Pandora (P -3.4%) releases its June audience metrics. Listener hours totaled 1.08B, +77% Y/Y but -2% from May, which had one extra day. The company's share of U.S. radio listening is pegged at 5.98%, compared with 5.8% in May and 3.37% in the year-ago period. Active listeners came in at 54.5M vs. 53.3M in May and 36.1M in June '11. Pandora is selling off, but so are other volatile Internet names. YELP -7.4%. GRPN -5.6%. ZNGA -3.6%. (May metrics) [View news story]
If we do get to a recession I wouldn't be surprised if all of these stocks end up at sub $2 prices.
GRPN I could see falling to zero and joining last decades dotbombs.
Redbook Chain Store Sales: +2.2% Y/Y vs. +2.2% prior week. [View news story]
Just curious. Do you sort of do a mental calculation to adjust for real numbers?
This sort of looks negative on y/y basis factoring in inflation but I have no idea if you can apply the discounting mechanism this way.
More on Alcoa (AA): Revenue is essentially flat sequentially with a 4% decline in realized aluminum prices, -10% Y/Y with an 18% annual decline in realized prices. The company maintains its view of a global aluminum supply deficit of 7% in 2012. Earnings "beat" analyst forecasts that have come in sharply over just the past week. Shares +0.2% AH. [View news story]
Interesting Freudian slip :)
May Consumer Credit: +$17.1B vs. +$8.5B expected and $10.0B prior (revised). The month saw the biggest jump in consumer credit since December. Non-revolving debt (student loans, car and personal loans) up $9.1B, while revolving debt (credit cards) increased $8.0B. [View news story]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Season Disappoint? [View article]
The ECB is not the FED. They can't do that yet. So I surmise it will only be possible for the necessary fiscal/legal changes to occur only after the near collapse not before.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Earnings Season Disappoint? [View article]
Funny not that long ago Dexia was considered the strongest bank in
Europe based upon stress tests and Tier 1 capital. Yet it didn't take more than about 3 months before it was taken over by the Belgian government because it was insolvent.
On this point, I would have to agree with you wholeheartedly. The market is saying the banks are insolvent from a shareholder's perspective which means the commons will be wiped out once they have to raise the capital to meet Basel 3 requirements. The issue is where are they going to get the money to do this with the sovereigns borrowing crowding out all the private requirements?
June Employment Trends Index: +5.6% Y/Y to 107.47, vs. 108.23 in May. (revised). The report cites slow employment growth is likely to continue through the summer. [View news story]
I haven't really followed this one all that much but that month to month drop seems unusually large unless it was skewed a bit by the earlier part of the year's warm weather impact. Does suggest though that the current rate of job growth is going to be status quo or less for the upcoming summer unless I am reading this wrong.
"The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) dipped to 107.47 in June, down from the revised figure of 108.23 in May. The June figure is 5.6 percent higher than a year ago.
“The Employment Trends Index has been flat since February, suggesting that slow employment growth is likely to continue through the summer,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Since there is little hope of acceleration in the pace of economic activity any time soon, these weak labor market conditions are likely to persist for the coming months.”
June’s drop in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from four of the eight components. The declining indicators – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get.”
Chinese inflation slows to a 29-month low of 2.2% in June vs. 3% in May and expectations of 2.3%. Even more striking, the CPI fell 0.6% during June - the 3rd consecutive monthly negative print. Beijing certainly has more room to ease policy further, should it wish to. Shanghai -0.5% and Hong Kong -0.4% on the back of declines in the West on Friday. [View news story]
The reason for the worsening jobs picture, writes Floyd Norris in the NYT, is because everybody looks at seasonally adjusted figures. "But those adjustments most likely overstate reality." Pre-adjustment, the private sector added 800K jobs/month in the last 3 months, while in June, the number of jobs rose by 1.8M Y/Y. Expect a poor July and August, a pick-up in September and an impressive October. [View news story]
http://bit.ly/ON4sgo
President Carter so dominates the American political scene now that his margin over Ronald Reagan in a post-Iowa trial heat has risen to an overwhelming 65-31 percent.
And against George Bush, the GOP candidate who finished first in the recent Iowa caucuses, Carter leads by only a slightly lower 62-32 percent. These latest ABC News - Harris Survey results, taken among a cross section of
1,195 likely voters on January 22nd, dramatically illustrate the incredible political comeback of President Carter. Only four months ago, Reagan held a 50-45 percent lead
over Carter. This means that a 5 point deficit has been turned into a 34 point lead over this short span of time. This is the largest lead President Carter has held over
any Republican since July 1976, when he was 39 points ahead of President Gerald Ford. "
Also in late October 1980, Carter had an 8 point lead with Registered voters according to Gallup before losing by 10 points on election day.
http://bit.ly/NcZesI
The reason for the worsening jobs picture, writes Floyd Norris in the NYT, is because everybody looks at seasonally adjusted figures. "But those adjustments most likely overstate reality." Pre-adjustment, the private sector added 800K jobs/month in the last 3 months, while in June, the number of jobs rose by 1.8M Y/Y. Expect a poor July and August, a pick-up in September and an impressive October. [View news story]
"As investors, it's rather simple: invest as if you were, henceforth, going to be living in a socialistic country, because you are."
Well if I believed that I would sell everything because that would surely be the death of our economy and its productive class.
Most people in this country think the economy is sick and going in the wrong direction which is why I think it will be a landslide for Romney. We have a slow patch now and it is just a question of whether we started going in the positive direction again which the recent data suggests is not the case, otherwise the trajectory is moving pretty quick to the zero percent growth line. In any event, I don't think the economy is going to be a positive for the President at this point.
The reason for the worsening jobs picture, writes Floyd Norris in the NYT, is because everybody looks at seasonally adjusted figures. "But those adjustments most likely overstate reality." Pre-adjustment, the private sector added 800K jobs/month in the last 3 months, while in June, the number of jobs rose by 1.8M Y/Y. Expect a poor July and August, a pick-up in September and an impressive October. [View news story]
You confirm what is more or less the case in every election. Most people vote along party lines regardless of the performance of the incumbent assuming there is one. Voter turnout is going to be the defining factor in this election.
I don't think there are many real "undecided" voters. Everyone knows who the President is and what he has accomplished to this point, fairly or unfairly, and therefore they are really only undecided about Romney.
Which to me means with about 10% of the electorate in this category, it could be a wipeout for Romney if he can be seen as a good enough choice. Dick Morris, Clinton's former pollster, has analyzed all elections in the post-1964 period and found that undecideds break for the new guy most of the time which is why he is predicting a wipeout as happened to Carter who was well ahead in most polls as late as Sept. Morris evokes a visceral reaction but he tends to know his stuff.
Which is why "hope and change" has morphed into destroy, diminish, and eviscerate Romney before he can tell his story.
This will definitely be a very divisive, nasty and interesting election campaign.
This a link to the Morris article if you are interested:
http://bit.ly/N7InsG