Seeking Alpha

GaltMachine

GaltMachine
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View GaltMachine's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls: +96K vs. consensus +125K, prior +141K (revised from 163K). Unemployment rate 8.1% vs. consensus 8.3%, 8.3% previous. [View news story]
    Mick,

    Wow. I tell you it's weird that a falling desire to find work is the equivalent of hiring when it comes to the jobless rate.

    So in theory, we can drive this rate way down by killing/crushing the hopes of the currently unemployed.
    Sep 7, 2012. 08:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Nonfarm Payrolls: June's job gains are revised down as well, putting the 2-month negative revision to -41K. Labor force participation rate falls to 63.5% from 63.7% in July (there's your headline UE decline), and from 64.1% a year ago. Average workweek is unchanged at 34.4 hours. July's average workweek is revised down to 34.4 hours. [View news story]
    Wow. I tell you it's weird that a falling desire to find work is the equivalent of hiring when it comes to the jobless rate.

    So in theory, we can drive this rate way down by killing/crushing the hopes of the currently unemployed.
    Sep 7, 2012. 08:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August Nonfarm Payrolls: +96K vs. consensus +125K, prior +141K (revised from 163K). Unemployment rate 8.1% vs. consensus 8.3%, 8.3% previous. [View news story]
    or not!
    Sep 7, 2012. 08:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The stars continue to line up for contrarian bulls, as none other than USA Today pronounces this time as "The Age of Safety" for investors. The piece describes mountains of cash earning nothing in money funds and bank accounts, and equity fund outflows inexplicably growing as stocks move higher. Get me a big fat "buy" button, says Josh Brown. (see also[View news story]
    Joe,

    Based upon this week's action, I would be very surprised if we don't see that bull/bear spread rise substantially next week.
    Sep 6, 2012. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Caterpillar Is A Value Trap [View article]
    Ray,

    Just look at last year, no recession, and the stock sold off to $70.55 and even lower intraday on Oct 3rd of last year without a recession or actual earnings deterioration. That was down from its high of $115 - that's a pretty nasty sell-off for any that bought near the highs.

    The fact that it has this type of inherent volatility within what should be a staid stock is what makes it such a deceiving investment. There is a huge air pocket in the price support for this stock. If we actually do get a recession this would be become a terrific buying opportunity for this stock worthy of the value play appellation..
    Sep 5, 2012. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Caterpillar Is A Value Trap [View article]
    All depends upon an upswing in the world economy. If we get the rebound then this won't be a falling knife.

    A very tricky stock to buy given how weak the support is for it. Drops like a stone on any sign of weakness.

    Yet it is a great company regardless of the stock performance.
    Sep 5, 2012. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyrocketing domestic consumption - helped along by subsidies masking the true cost - is key to Saudi Arabia maybe becoming a net importer of oil by 2030, far sooner than previously thought. The country already consumes the entirety of its gas production and is likely to imminently need new sources for that. Might this concentrate the Saudi mind on nuclear and solar energy? (previous[View news story]
    Gary,

    That was indeed hilarious.

    http://bit.ly/NMQL3o
    "Dear Mr. President: The canal system of this country is being threatened by a new form of transportation known as 'railroads' ... As you may well know, Mr. President, 'railroad' carriages are pulled at the enormous speed of 15 miles per hour by 'engines' which, in addition to endangering life and limb of passengers, roar and snort their way through the countryside, setting fire to crops, scaring the livestock and frightening women and children. The Almighty certainly never intended that people should travel at such breakneck speed."


    -- Martin Van Buren, Governor of New York, 1865(?)
    Sep 5, 2012. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyrocketing domestic consumption - helped along by subsidies masking the true cost - is key to Saudi Arabia maybe becoming a net importer of oil by 2030, far sooner than previously thought. The country already consumes the entirety of its gas production and is likely to imminently need new sources for that. Might this concentrate the Saudi mind on nuclear and solar energy? (previous[View news story]
    Freddy,

    "Fear and Greed" - the two emotions that make people take action in financial markets.
    Sep 5, 2012. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China shows what happens to stocks in a true bear market, writes Doug Kass, as near-relentless selling since early this year has stocks trading at 7.8X forward earnings, and with a 3.9% dividend yield. "If China is the growth driver of the (world economy)," asks Kass, "doesn't this highlight how cheap stocks can get when growth is called into question?" [View news story]
    The Chinese had an inverted yield curve last year and that's generally a pretty reliable warning signal for a bout of substantial economic weakness.

    In the old days, pre-meltdown, the Shanghai was considered a bellwether for the S&P. Here's hoping it isn't!
    Sep 5, 2012. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The stars continue to line up for contrarian bulls, as none other than USA Today pronounces this time as "The Age of Safety" for investors. The piece describes mountains of cash earning nothing in money funds and bank accounts, and equity fund outflows inexplicably growing as stocks move higher. Get me a big fat "buy" button, says Josh Brown. (see also[View news story]
    Joe,

    "I wish the bears were a tad lower though"

    That's exactly the way I see it. The trend won't be broken completely until bears capitulate. Get this down to sub 20 or 18 or so and the bulls in the 55 range and it will be similar to the Oct 2007 top. A bull/bear ratio of 3:1 has been an awesomely reliable sell signal.

    Can't wait to see a record bears number like March 09 again, that would be another great buying opportunity.
    Sep 5, 2012. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The stars continue to line up for contrarian bulls, as none other than USA Today pronounces this time as "The Age of Safety" for investors. The piece describes mountains of cash earning nothing in money funds and bank accounts, and equity fund outflows inexplicably growing as stocks move higher. Get me a big fat "buy" button, says Josh Brown. (see also[View news story]
    Investor's Intelligence Survey this week:

    http://bit.ly/xQNJ14

    Bullishness has risen substantially since the end of June to over 50% for those who actually put money into the markets not the hypothetical money on the sidelines people. That low bullishness in June was indeed a good time to buy.

    So if you are contrarian this would be a warning.
    Sep 5, 2012. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx (FDX) slashes its FQ1 earnings forecast to $1.37-$1.43/share from an earlier estimate of $1.45-$1.60, and vs. Street consensus of $1.56. "Weakness in the global economy constrained revenue growth at FedEx Express more than expected in earlier guidance." Shares -4% AH. (PR[View news story]
    "So when is the world ending?"

    http://bit.ly/TiF3yq
    "The sun is about 4.5 billion years old and it is estimated to still possess a 5-billion year supply of hydrogen (hydrogen is the fuel that drives nuclear fusion on the sun). Therefore, it is predicted that our sun will die in approximately 5 billion years."
    Sep 5, 2012. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug ISM New York Report on Business: 51.4 down from 55.2 in July. [View news story]
    Holy crap. They even corrected my comment showing their original error. Or is it senility?

    This is a scary site.
    Sep 5, 2012. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug ISM New York Report on Business: 51.4 down from 55.2 in July. [View news story]
    "Wednesday, September 5, 9:46 AM Aug ISM New York Report on Business: 51.4 down from 55.2 in July."

    They always make you look silly when they correct it without acknowledging their original error.
    Sep 5, 2012. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx (FDX) slashes its FQ1 earnings forecast to $1.37-$1.43/share from an earlier estimate of $1.45-$1.60, and vs. Street consensus of $1.56. "Weakness in the global economy constrained revenue growth at FedEx Express more than expected in earlier guidance." Shares -4% AH. (PR[View news story]
    TP,

    Apparently "bad" is the new "good" so who knows how markets react to news anymore.
    Sep 4, 2012. 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,168 Comments
1,536 Likes