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  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]

    You can focus on the past or look at it as two separate calls at this point. The first one was wrong or premature, this one looks wrong as well but who knows?

    If he was wrong last year on his timing but right this year does that make his pronouncement any less valid now?

    I would say not as far as the recession call is concerned but your point on the markets is bang on.
    Nov 29, 2012. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]

    I watched him on Bloomberg TV with Tom Keene and he was adamant. The article you linked to is pretty much the boilerplate he used for the interview.

    I have to admit I am stunned by his persistence on this recession call given that he clearly isn't an unintelligent man. I have been reading Doug Short's commentary on the NBER criteria recently and he in fact is also documenting a possible peak as well. He however, is not even remotely forecasting a recession.

    "As the average of the Big Four charted above illustrates, growth in recent months has essentially flat-lined, and we still face the near-term impact of Sandy on the economy and the impact of how congress deals with the various components of the Fiscal Cliff. At this point in time, I think it is possible that the NBER could eventually date a new recession from some point in the third or fourth quarter of 2012. But I remain of the view that ECRI's 2011 recession call was painfully premature. "

    If ECRI ends up being right that would be one hell of a humble pie moment for the detractors.
    Nov 29, 2012. 03:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Maintains $0.09 Dividend, But Likely Two-Thirds Is A Return Of Capital [View article]

    I don't follow this stock so I am taking this article at face value. Would you recommend buying it and why?

    Thank you.
    Nov 29, 2012. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Maintains $0.09 Dividend, But Likely Two-Thirds Is A Return Of Capital [View article]
    "The REIT did not file its 2011 annual report or any subsequent reports due to the reconsideration of how to appropriately treat its junk-rated non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities portfolio under accounting standards. Chimera's failure to provide adequate filings has generated a cloud of uncertainty around the company, as well as its management and bookkeepers. This fee reduction appears to be an acknowledgment of this seemingly irrefutable fact."

    Now that's a scary statement.
    Nov 29, 2012. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Windows 8 making a bad situation worse for the (non-Apple) PC industry? NPD believes U.S. retail sales of Windows gear is down 21% Y/Y since Oct. 26, the day Win. 8 launched. Notebooks -24% and desktops -9%. Also, thanks to inventory-clearing and perhaps also a cautious enterprise response, Win. 8 has only made up 58% of Windows device sales since launch time, compared with 83% for Windows 7 in its first 4 weeks. 6% of Win. 8 notebook sales involved touchscreens, and ASPs rose to $477 from $433 in the year-ago period. (40M licenses[View news story]
    Consumers like me, have figured out that buying any MS product at launch is a mistake. You wait for the inevitable onslaught of patches to be sent out before you commit. It could take 6 mths before you get anything resembling stability.

    I tried demoing the product at my local BJ's and I had to laugh. The opening screen says activation is required before you can launch it; so much for trying it out.

    I am still scarred by my Vista experience - what a piece of crap it is.
    Nov 29, 2012. 10:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -23K to 393K vs. 390K consensus, 416K prior (revised). Continuing claims -70K to 3.28M. [View news story]

    What is your 52 wk avg of NSA claims doing at this point?
    Nov 29, 2012. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q3 (2nd estimate): +2.7% vs. +2.8% consensus, +2% previous estimate, 1.3% Q2. [View news story]
    Helps explain the improved job mkt for those of us that were cynical about the numbers. Interestingly this was one of the biggest revisions in a positive direction that we have had since the end of the recession - I was expecting the opposite.

    Buying an election?:

    "Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second. National defense increased 12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.0 percent."

    So much for govt restraint.
    Nov 29, 2012. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]

    Not sure where you are getting this information. The inaugural launch of the ISM NMI was Jan 2008.

    It says so on the historical data spreadsheet. Click for the spreadsheet.

    Also at Calculated Risk:

    "This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index."


    The NAPM and the NMI are different and not directly comparable based upon the differing methodology.
    Nov 28, 2012. 05:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volcker rule proves easier said than done. Needing to be signed off on by a handful of agencies and having grown to 300 pages, it won't be ready by year's end, say officials, who now hope to have it ready in Q1 next year. The core of the rule aims to ban banks from prop trading, but how do you separate that from, for instance, using derivatives as part of routine hedging for clients. There's going to be a bull market in compliance office jobs at the big banks. [View news story]

    Don't forget SarBox. Never has a piece of legislation lead to so much useless work for accountants and wasted money. It has done so much damage to privately held firms trying to go public that it basically killed the small IPO market.
    Nov 28, 2012. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]

    ISM Services is a new series with a limited track record - started in Jan 2008.

    People generally focus on ISM Manufacturing as that is more sensitive to cyclical changes in the economy and more of a leading indicator. Also a very long track record from which to draw inferences.

    It was below 50 for 3 mths recently so there were some concerns building about a slowdown. It has rebounded recently.
    Nov 28, 2012. 04:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New-Home Sales October 2012: A Slight Monthly Decline [View article]
    If demand for new homes were to rise sharply, perhaps due to an economy that grows faster than expectations, then that current supply would be woefully inadequate. If you are betting on a housing recovery then it does makes sense to buy the homebuilders.

    I am not invested in this area but it does make for an interesting thought experiment.
    Nov 28, 2012. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]

    John Mauldin has an excellent letter this week on the impact of tax increases on productivity and capital formation and ultimately long-term GDP growth.

    Well worth the read:
    Nov 28, 2012. 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised). [View news story]

    I always admire someone who puts their money behind their beliefs.
    Nov 28, 2012. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]

    Good link.
    Nov 28, 2012. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wind power generation topped 10K MW in the Midwest electrical grid on Friday, the first time it has surpassed the milestone. The amount represented 25% of the electricity being used at the time. Wind capacity has ballooned in the area, which is covered by the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, since 2006. [View news story]

    Meant to write "don't".

    Truth makes great policy - we have too many lies infiltrating the government at this point to have any hope of getting real answers to our pressing problems.

    A policy built upon a foundation of lies, like the global warming fraud, is like a termite ridden house - it will collapse eventually and perhaps dangerously.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment