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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Economic Recovery Stalling Out?  [View article]

    Sorry I should have been clearer by what I took away from the article which was that inflation is the biggest driver of real interest rates.

    Add inflation to real rates of about 1.9% on average and you get expected long bond rates - I thought that was very useful.

    So inflation at its current level suggests that the recent fall in rates is actually what should happen.
    Feb 3, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Economic Recovery Stalling Out?  [View article]
    For anyone concerned about their bond funds and bond allocations relative to interest rates, this review of the subject by Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Wealth courtesy of John Mauldin was excellent:

    Feb 2, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone XL report reignites battle over pipeline's impact  [View news story]
    Just Say Yes!
    Feb 1, 2014. 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Good Models Go Bad  [View article]

    Do you have an update on your 52 week rolling NSA jobless claims metric?

    Curious as to whether it is telling you anything. Noticed that since about August when we hit a real low the numbers have been creeping up.

    Jan 31, 2014. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Decline: Get A Grip!  [View article]

    While I may not agree with your forecast, I am puzzled by the investors who are ignoring recent history - S&P sold off from about 1550 to 666 in 2009 which is about a 57% decline not far off your current forecast.

    I guess it is recency bias at work.

    Of course it has rebounded and beyond since then so if you went to sleep from 2007 till now you would be smiling.
    Jan 29, 2014. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • December Existing Home Sales: The Housing Bear Market Is Back  [View article]

    People confuse the difference between the median home price of existing versus new homes.

    Although in theory rising home prices are good, it's a double-edged sword since it makes housing less affordable based upon the 20% down-payment and the financing cost.

    Until we get no-money down again the drag from rising prices could be a real problem for affordability. Best-case scenario, I think is one in which housing is back to a utility rather than an investment and maintains a stable value.
    Jan 26, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Sunday reads  [View news story]
    Shouldn't France be more concerned about changing its attitude toward success?
    Jan 26, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Munis the best value in fixed income  [View news story]

    Thanks for the clarification - I suspected as much. That's one of those adjectives with investment connotations :)
    Jan 13, 2014. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Munis the best value in fixed income  [View news story]

    How do you define "top"?

    Are you recommending these?

    Jan 11, 2014. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brutal week for retail sales  [View news story]
    "Sales fell over 5% on the year-over-year comparison."

    I believe that is an error - the reference is to week to week. Y/y was positive according to the other post.
    Jan 7, 2014. 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uncertainty abounds as healthcare deadline looms  [View news story]
    Blame Bush?

    Dec 22, 2013. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar releases dealer stats for November  [View news story]
    This seems so bizarre. CAT was sometimes called a "bellwether" stock.

    Is it just mining that is the problem for them?
    Dec 19, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless claims jumps 68K to 368K  [View news story]

    You might find it interesting that David Rosenberg has come around to your point of view on the economy:

    "David Rosenberg: U.S. economy in 2014 has more upside than many think"
    Dec 12, 2013. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare Web site improving but problems still remain  [View news story]
    Only in the field of government would a 10% error rate be considered an "improvement".

    Sadly for those victims of the error they have no clue that they actually don't have the insurance they thought they purchased.

    Dec 8, 2013. 12:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Light quality helps LED bulb sales grow in spite of high prices  [View news story]
    Add the fact that fluorescents are mercury bombs and toxic for the environment and you have to wonder how stupid this whole banning of Edison's greatest invention has turned out to be.

    Wacko environmentalists run wild, run free and cause destruction to you and me!

    Straight from the EPA:
    "Before Cleanup

    Have people and pets leave the room.
    Air out the room for 5-10 minutes by opening a window or door to the outdoor environment.
    Shut off the central forced air heating/air-conditioning system, if you have one.
    Collect materials needed to clean up broken bulb:
    stiff paper or cardboard;
    sticky tape;
    damp paper towels or disposable wet wipes (for hard surfaces); and
    a glass jar with a metal lid or a sealable plastic bag.

    During Cleanup

    DO NOT VACUUM. Vacuuming is not recommended unless broken glass remains after all other cleanup steps have been taken. Vacuuming could spread mercury-containing powder or mercury vapor.
    Be thorough in collecting broken glass and visible powder. Scoop up glass fragments and powder using stiff paper or cardboard. Use sticky tape, such as duct tape, to pick up any remaining small glass fragments and powder. Place the used tape in the glass jar or plastic bag. See the detailed cleanup instructions for more information, and for differences in cleaning up hard surfaces versus carpeting or rugs.
    Place cleanup materials in a sealable container.

    After Cleanup

    Promptly place all bulb debris and cleanup materials, including vacuum cleaner bags, outdoors in a trash container or protected area until materials can be disposed of. Avoid leaving any bulb fragments or cleanup materials indoors.
    Next, check with your local government about disposal requirements in your area, because some localities require fluorescent bulbs (broken or unbroken) be taken to a local recycling center. If there is no such requirement in your area, you can dispose of the materials with your household trash.
    If practical, continue to air out the room where the bulb was broken and leave the heating/air conditioning system shut off for several hours."

    The last instruction is so hilarious it makes you wonder if this was written by the Onion.
    Nov 2, 2013. 11:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment