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GaltMachine

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  • GDP Q3 (2nd estimate): +2.7% vs. +2.8% consensus, +2% previous estimate, 1.3% Q2. [View news story]
    Helps explain the improved job mkt for those of us that were cynical about the numbers. Interestingly this was one of the biggest revisions in a positive direction that we have had since the end of the recession - I was expecting the opposite.

    Buying an election?:

    "Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second. National defense increased 12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.0 percent."

    So much for govt restraint.
    Nov 29, 2012. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]
    Valley,

    Not sure where you are getting this information. The inaugural launch of the ISM NMI was Jan 2008.

    It says so on the historical data spreadsheet. Click for the spreadsheet.

    http://bit.ly/V1oJAd

    Also at Calculated Risk:

    "This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index."

    Read more at http://bit.ly/10YlSMK

    The NAPM and the NMI are different and not directly comparable based upon the differing methodology.
    Nov 28, 2012. 05:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volcker rule proves easier said than done. Needing to be signed off on by a handful of agencies and having grown to 300 pages, it won't be ready by year's end, say officials, who now hope to have it ready in Q1 next year. The core of the rule aims to ban banks from prop trading, but how do you separate that from, for instance, using derivatives as part of routine hedging for clients. There's going to be a bull market in compliance office jobs at the big banks. [View news story]
    bbro,

    Don't forget SarBox. Never has a piece of legislation lead to so much useless work for accountants and wasted money. It has done so much damage to privately held firms trying to go public that it basically killed the small IPO market.
    Nov 28, 2012. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]
    Tack,

    ISM Services is a new series with a limited track record - started in Jan 2008.

    People generally focus on ISM Manufacturing as that is more sensitive to cyclical changes in the economy and more of a leading indicator. Also a very long track record from which to draw inferences.

    It was below 50 for 3 mths recently so there were some concerns building about a slowdown. It has rebounded recently.

    http://bit.ly/quMVtJ
    Nov 28, 2012. 04:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New-Home Sales October 2012: A Slight Monthly Decline [View article]
    If demand for new homes were to rise sharply, perhaps due to an economy that grows faster than expectations, then that current supply would be woefully inadequate. If you are betting on a housing recovery then it does makes sense to buy the homebuilders.

    I am not invested in this area but it does make for an interesting thought experiment.
    Nov 28, 2012. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]
    Jason,

    John Mauldin has an excellent letter this week on the impact of tax increases on productivity and capital formation and ultimately long-term GDP growth.

    Well worth the read:

    http://bit.ly/Selghh
    Nov 28, 2012. 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised). [View news story]
    Playing,

    I always admire someone who puts their money behind their beliefs.
    Nov 28, 2012. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will U.S. Recession Be Confirmed Friday? [View article]
    bbro,

    Good link.
    Nov 28, 2012. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wind power generation topped 10K MW in the Midwest electrical grid on Friday, the first time it has surpassed the milestone. The amount represented 25% of the electricity being used at the time. Wind capacity has ballooned in the area, which is covered by the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, since 2006. [View news story]
    Drew,

    Meant to write "don't".

    Truth makes great policy - we have too many lies infiltrating the government at this point to have any hope of getting real answers to our pressing problems.

    A policy built upon a foundation of lies, like the global warming fraud, is like a termite ridden house - it will collapse eventually and perhaps dangerously.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised). [View news story]
    bbro,

    Not to disagree with you but this is a variant of that fallacy which begins with: "We have had a recession every time (blank) fell below 2X".

    You are just formulating it differently.

    As far as whether we can have a recession at these levels, well I guess we will find out within the next 6 months one way or another. With negative revisions to the prior month's data this does look really weak at this point.

    If we indeed the peak for new homes in this cycle that would be a shocker.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wind power generation topped 10K MW in the Midwest electrical grid on Friday, the first time it has surpassed the milestone. The amount represented 25% of the electricity being used at the time. Wind capacity has ballooned in the area, which is covered by the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, since 2006. [View news story]
    jmj,

    We will never "run out" of coal in this country while we need it - the US is the Saudi Arabia of coal. We have hundreds of years of supply and add in Natgas, shale oil, tar sands, etc. and we are completely energy independent if we want to be.

    http://1.usa.gov/Wv9H4W

    Cold fusion or something similar is the future of energy not wind driven propellers which was state of the art technology back in the 1700's.

    Good intentions doesn't make good policy - just the opposite in fact.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised). [View news story]
    At this level of sales is there really a material difference between "hitting and missing" the numbers?

    This is still an amazingly low number for this stage of the "expansion". For optimists, lots of room to grow.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wind power generation topped 10K MW in the Midwest electrical grid on Friday, the first time it has surpassed the milestone. The amount represented 25% of the electricity being used at the time. Wind capacity has ballooned in the area, which is covered by the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, since 2006. [View news story]
    What happens to all those windmills if wind patterns change because of global warming?

    Hard to run your computer when the wind stops blowing. Someday someone will figure out the storage issue but until then it can't work without backup generation so what's the point?
    Nov 28, 2012. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shanghai Composite slides 1.3% to close below 2,000 for the first time since the early days of 2009, and now off 42% from a mid-2009 peak. Volume remains anemic as well - by one measure the slowest since early 2008. Are things getting too cheap? Mainland-listed A-shares are trading at their biggest discout to their Hong Kong-listed peers since June 2011. [View news story]
    Does seem tempting but I know f-all about this index. Anybody have some links to stuff that is interesting?

    Doesn't seem like there would be much currency risk here assuming the US dollar peg applies here.
    Nov 27, 2012. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.56 vs. 0.00 prior (revised). The index's 3-month moving average decreased to -0.56%, from a level of -0.36% in Sep. [View news story]
    bbro,

    Calculated Risk always has a nice discussion of this indicator:

    http://bit.ly/QGmipd

    I keep reading that GDP for Q3 is going to be revised up to around 2.8% at this next reading. Clearly that seems inconsistent with a variety of leading and concurrent data that we have been saying lately.

    Seems its primarily due to housing and a bit of an inventory build.

    What do you think?
    Nov 26, 2012. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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