Seeking Alpha

GaltMachine

GaltMachine
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View GaltMachine's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Salesforce.com (CRM +2.2%) is trading higher after Piper reports the company has scored the largest deal in its history, one that surpasses a $140M contract with State Farm. The firm thinks other huge deals could be on the way. Salesforce, which talked up the size of its deal pipeline 3 months ago, delivers its FQ2 report on Aug. 23. [View news story]
    Big admirer of the company but I can't get over that price to sales ratio valuation.
    Aug 13 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Citic Securities - China's largest brokerage -  spokesperson takes to CNBC to deny rumors of a $460M loss on overseas trading as well as the arrest of the Chairman. Citic plunged 9.1% overnight, taking other brokerage firms along for the ride. [View news story]
    "takes to CNBC to deny rumors of a $460 loss on overseas trading"

    Something tells me that there is a dollar amount (millions perhaps) that is missing from this story :)
    Aug 13 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Catherine Rampell investigates whether the recovery really is the worst since the Great Depression and finds that on almost every measure she looked at, "there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse." However, improvements across different metrics are way below the average. [View news story]
    DV,

    Who is the top Presidential candidate in terms of fundraising from the Wallstreet elite that you are disparaging?

    Barack Obama by a country mile.

    http://bit.ly/nnhtuS

    Perhaps this explains why Wallstreet has done so well under this President and no one has gone to jail.

    How about that Jon Corzine guy?

    The fact that he is such a fundraising champion for the President might explain why he isn't in jail right now.

    Too bad you don't use the same standards on your own candidates.
    Aug 12 12:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Equity Quicksand Or A Bond Cliff? [View article]
    Paul,

    "you can't buy past performance"

    Well you can say the same thing about stocks.

    Assuming you bought bonds/bond funds systematically over the current cycle you are ahead and the decision is whether to sell or hold.

    I personally have significant gains on my holdings.

    Would I add new money at this point?

    Nope. I think I would rather stick it in cash and wait for an entry point in some other asset class.

    I also think ZIRP has made everything overvalued including stocks and that might be where we differ.
    Aug 12 12:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recession's Key Ingredient Added [View article]
    Freddy,

    "There hasn't even been a single monthly contraction since mid-2009."

    You might want to doublecheck that statement. In the latest GDP revisions, Q1 2011 was revised down to 0.08% GDP growth. I suspect that one of those months must have had negative growth but I am not sure how to check that.

    Now that revision is a laugher. How much do you want to bet it was actually negative and they decided to add that little bit to avoid the truth?
    Aug 12 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Equity Quicksand Or A Bond Cliff? [View article]
    "That's right, investors are paying to lose money by holding pieces of paper until maturity"

    Well that's both a big assumption and a narrow reading of the true state of affairs. Most bonds are held in bond funds which mark to market so currently anybody who has invested in just about any corporate bond fund has done exceedingly well over the past 5 years and the last year in particular has also been good.

    Now TBT has been the widowmaker once again - TLT return y/y pretty sick.

    I guess the premise of whether bonds are in for a disaster rests upon the assumption of the direction of inflation/deflation. Deflation is a good trade for bonds and I guess that must be the assumption going forward to make this trade work.

    I agree, however, that holding bonds at this point looks pretty scary and we can thank the FED for that.
    Aug 12 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Catherine Rampell investigates whether the recovery really is the worst since the Great Depression and finds that on almost every measure she looked at, "there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse." However, improvements across different metrics are way below the average. [View news story]
    It's almost like Terry is unaware of the fact that the President signed the extension of these "disastrous" tax cuts for the rich in 2010.
    Aug 12 11:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carbonite (CARB) CEO David Friend admits the decision to withdraw from sponsoring the Rush Limbaugh show after the radio host called a woman a "slut" on the air didn't pay off for shareholders. CARB's Q2 results missed growth targets and its stock price fell 15%. Friend says that while he stands by the decision, the move caused "a bigger hole in our revenue than we thought." [View news story]
    The CEO should be fired for his pompous decision.

    This is the same guy that supports another host who used the same word in connection to a woman but who just happens to be a lefty host. So clearly this man has no consistency when it comes to "values".

    This decision just shows how dumb this guy must be. Limbaugh has the largest radio audience in history (and probably any other media as well) and the most devoted listeners so even a simpleton would know that this would result in a loss of business.

    I doubt his shareholders want him to express his political opinions in the context of business operations and strategy.
    Aug 11 12:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No One Wants The iPhone? Think Again [View article]
    Ronin,

    I was trying to offer an explanation for the low P/E, if you don't like it ignore it.

    Your approach is simplistic - quality of earnings, their stability, growth potential, and margin expansion all matter in the price and the calculation of value which are all forward measures. It is art, not science.

    If there was no concern about these future values, the stock would not be trading where it is given its past performance.

    There has to be some explanation other than it is "undervalued"
    to explain why it has a lower relative valuation than a NTAP or MSFT for example especially in view of how much better a company it is.

    Good luck.
    Aug 10 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No One Wants The iPhone? Think Again [View article]
    Bret,

    Two ways to look at the P/E ratio - one is on the price the other on the earnings.

    If the presumption is that those earnings on a margin basis are way higher than is typical for an consumer electronic's manufacturer then there is always the risk of a reversion to the mean in those margins.

    So in effect, if earnings start to "normalize" because of intensifying competitive pressures, less differentiation, etc, you could still have strong sales growth but with a corresponding drop in overall profit as a percentage of sales.

    So perhaps, the valuation of AAPL reflects the "inflated" earnings and you are in fact paying a PE of 20-24.

    Otherwise the current valuation really doesn't make sense because it does seem quite cheap by most standards.
    Aug 10 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No One Wants The iPhone? Think Again [View article]
    "Cool" is a faddish positioning. It's no longer cool when it is widely owned.

    AAPL makes great products, however as an investor in the stock the key issue is whether those fabulous margins will be maintained along with the "cool" factor.

    Also, as a non-AAPL user I can't quite understand why they don't have a phone with 2 different sized screens to satisfy both sets of consumers. It just strikes me as a totally missed opportunity.

    Anybody who has held a Samsung 3 in their hand side by side with an Iphone will have a hard time letting the Samsung go if you like the extra visual real-estate. Right now to my eyes, the Iphone looks like last generation technology - thick, old, and heavy -compared to the S3 even with its elegant packaging.

    I fear I may have unleashed the ire of the AAPLbots :)
    Aug 9 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing permabears can no longer ignore the data: Home prices are up by the most in at least seven years. Among the many potential impacts: ~1M households regaining a positive equity position, and a meaningful decline in the number of newer mortgage delinquencies. The wealth effect from housing is 10x more than Bernanke's attempts to pump up the stock market, Josh Brown writes. [View news story]
    Most people still don't know that the low house prices they have all heard about also apply to them. We are still in the denial phase.
    Aug 8 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As the S&P 500 moves inexorably towards the 1400 mark, the climb has been more on a "wall of hate" rather than a "wall of worry." Slower profit growth, weak U.S. data, a faltering global economy, the U.S. fiscal cliff and more fallout from the European debt crisis have all combined to make this one of the most defensive rallies in quite some time, says equity strategist Sam Stovall. The index is up over 9% since June, Stovall notes, yet four of the five best performing sectors are defensive in nature. [View news story]
    The "Wall of Cliches."

    Ugh.
    Aug 8 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. June Consumer Credit rises $6.46B vs. $10B expected. It's the slowest pace of expansion in 8 months. [View news story]
    schatzl,

    Thanks. Always weird thinking about deflation and future value. What I meant and what I wrote indicate that :)
    Aug 8 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We're on the verge of the next great bull market," BMO's Brian Belski believes, undeterred by deteriorating earnings growth and weak investor confidence. "Stocks lead earnings, which lead the economy," he says. "We think the stock market revival we've seen in the last several weeks is foreshadowing what's going to happen in the economy again... a recovery in the second half." [View news story]
    Terry330,

    The Cheerleader for the 1%! Champion of the rich!

    Who would have thought it?

    ;)
    Aug 7 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,110 Comments
1,402 Likes