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GaltMachine

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  • The Market May Be Underestimating Tesla's Potential In Europe [View article]
    whosside,

    "You haven't been paying attention."

    Setting aside the rudeness of your remark, I have been paying attention and we still have record production in the US even with nearly half of those rigs taken down. The worldwide oil market is fungible.

    The laws of supply and demand for a product with highly inelastic demand (like oil) tell you that a reduction in demand will be followed by a steep drop in price http://bit.ly/1CQ3aXd

    which is exactly what has happened to the price of oil especially when combined with an increase in supply. We have just witnessed this exact thing over the past 8 months.

    That quote above says 15 years from now and it is not my supposition. My premise is that if this were replicated worldwide then you can readily assume that a 40% drop in the demand for oil would mean that the price of oil would remain rock-bottom in the decades ahead or would hover around the average price of production. Gasoline prices would follow the price of oil downward especially when combined with excess supply. Refiners have to refine to survive.

    I have no idea why you find this simple economic concept to be so controversial - its entirely predictable and a very positive net result for the increased use of electric vehicles. I am all in favor of the electric vehicle displacing demand for gasoline and oil because it would help everyone.
    Apr 13, 2015. 03:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market May Be Underestimating Tesla's Potential In Europe [View article]
    jj1937,

    " I tried to get my money back on the Model X. "

    May I ask why?

    Thanks
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market May Be Underestimating Tesla's Potential In Europe [View article]
    "A study by Cambridge Econometrics predicted that the U.K. would slash oil imports by 40% within 15 years, as the public moves towards electric cars. "

    If this got repeated everywhere in the world then the cost of gasoline and oil would plunge dramatically making a gas powered car that much more compelling.

    It is an interesting unintended consequence and would be a very large positive for the poorest people in the world - reduced gasoline/oil costs would free up a lot more money for basic necessities like food and water.

    Here's hoping it happens sooner rather than later.
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Silent On The Good ZEV News? [View article]
    So much corporate welfare - its nauseating. Picking and choosing winners based upon what government thinks is best for the public is a fool's errand at best and crony capitalism at worst. Without California's corporate welfare would this company even survive?

    Yes I think "xxx" oil company should not receive special treatment, etc.

    I don't believe in wars for oil either ;)

    As an investor in Tesla, you have to acknowledge the fear that the political climate will change so a company whose very survival depends upon this corporate welfare has a gigantic risk-factor in play that is not well understood.

    Relying upon the kindness of strangers is never a good business strategy :)
    Apr 13, 2015. 12:40 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    Energy,

    "I'm wondering if this new tweet by Musk could be a precursor to rationalizing an increase. ("We said $35K, but we really meant..... $45 minus $10.") Just a thought. "

    That's a brilliant insight because it allows the company to superficially keep the promise so hopefully this gets addressed soon.

    " Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    Follow

    We debated this, but there really is $10k gas saved by most owners over 5 yrs (avg ownership period). Since it's true, we are sticking w it."

    That would be an important fact to clear up!
    Apr 13, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    energy,

    That was a great find despite what "molli" says. Amazing that this is a new pricing approach that was pushed by Elon as his tweet says.

    I liked this section from the post:

    "In a discussion topic on the Tesla Motors Club forum about this recent tweet (tip of the hat to “Law&Disorder“), there were some other interesting points made. There were a lot of comments describing the advertising choice as “sleazy,” and, humorously, comparing it to that used by the car dealerships that Tesla has had so many legal battles with.

    Something else worth noting (tip of the hat to “Seesaw”): interestingly, Tesla doesn’t use this advertising approach in Australia — thanks to (relatively) strong consumer protection laws on the books in the country. Hmmm. Too bad we don’t have those over here.

    Personally, I think that Tesla would be better off advertising the actual price — rather than the manipulated one that includes “saved” fuel costs. It can still clearly indicate the “estimated” fuel savings somewhere on the webpage as well, without the risk of deceiving consumers.

    What do you think? Pro or nay on the current Tesla website pricing approach?"
    Apr 13, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Walking On Thin Ice Regarding Customer Trust [View article]
    Mark,

    "but the idea that deceptive sales practices are pervasive seems pretty far-fetched to me."

    To be clear, my feedback is purely based upon the pricing as presented on the Tesla website and I have no opinion on anything beyond that in the area of sales.

    It was a surprise to me that when I went to the website that the prices presented were so much lower than what was being discussed on this site that I thought they were having a sale or price cuts.

    Presenting gas savings as part of the lower price is just wrong in my opinion and creates a negative impression. I think you should trumpet the gas savings and do everything they do but make it transparent.

    When you buy a model 70 your starting price is not $57,500 and no matter what the gas savings are Tesla will not reduce the price of the car by that amount at the time of purchase (it would be nice if they did!).

    To me it just looks "cheesy" to use a technical term.
    Apr 13, 2015. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    winfield,

    Thanks for the link. Not sure why you think this was a positive story but it is publicity. I found it pretty balanced and not entirely complimentary.

    There was an interesting risk factor discussed in the article:

    "Steve Hill, who negotiated the deal for Sandoval, said that the state had protected itself in case Tesla’s workforce falls below agreed totals or it fails to invest the $3.5 billion it has committed. Every quarter, an audit of the jobs will be performed, Hill said, and if at least half the hires aren’t from Nevada, all the subsidies come off the table and Tesla would need to repay any benefits it received, with interest. In its first audit, Tesla said it had hired 455 people for construction jobs, 80 percent of whom were from Nevada.

    “The $3.5 billion of investment and the 50 percentage of Nevadans are light switches,” Hill said. “They either go on or they go off. And if they ever go off, it’s over.”

    Personally I can't stand these "pay to play" government deals that subsidize companies but I get why they are done.
    Apr 12, 2015. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FOMC's Cacophony [View article]
    One of the most fascinating charts I have ever seen:

    "Here's a chart of interest rates since 3000 BC"
    Myles Udland
    Read more: http://read.bi/1D9uz9H"

    This is the first time in the history of financial markets that the world has ever had a negative short-term interest rate!

    This time really is different.
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of An 'Earnings Recession'? [View article]
    "For the first time since the Great Recession, it is possible that corporate earnings will contract for two consecutive quarters."

    It's interesting that an event like this could be met with so little investor concern. Paying more for less earnings and a negative trend at a time when historical valuations are already considered high demonstrates how bullish the trend is or how oblivious the money managers are to measures of risk.
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    Sidd,

    "Author’s reply » I dont know about Ford at the time of Henry Ford but Ford of now owes us (the govt) more money than any other car maker. "

    What are you talking about with this statement? Do you ever think to check something as basic as this before making a statement like this? Where is the debt to the government on the Ford balance sheet?

    Aren't you concerned about your credibility as an author?
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    jfscal,

    "I predict the first one will be in...2008. I'm not so good with predictions that involve the future though. "

    And everyone else. I don't care about what they did as a private company. The analogy to AAPL is as a public company. Being a public company is much different, more demanding and more challenging which is why this company will face big challenges just as AAPL did in the 90's once they hit the growth cliff.

    The competition won't be sitting still and the cash burn will only accelerate as this company grows "negative scale" - the potential dilution to fund this growth could be astonishing.

    If I am wrong, I can live with it. :)
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    sidd,

    Well I am not the one who is using the AAPL analogy for Tesla but I don't think it is a bad one and I do expect Tesla to run into the same issues that bedeviled Apple in its growth phase - it will nearly die before it resurrects.

    The world is not a static place where the only variable that changes positively is the one you like.

    Good luck!
    Apr 11, 2015. 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Walking On Thin Ice Regarding Customer Trust [View article]
    doubleE,

    "There is nothing fraudulent about the stated price."

    Really? Are you saying the price of the car is reduced at purchase time by the amount of the gas savings?

    Come on! You can at least admit that the price is what you pay at the time you buy without having to be a bull or a bear. The price of the car shown above is not the price you pay at the point of purchase.

    CParm's point is accurate to my eyes and I don't know how this doesn't qualify as false advertising especially since gas prices are no where near the $3.90/gallon price used to calculate savings.

    I don't think its even necessary to do this because anyone spending this much on a car doesn't care much about the price of gas.
    Apr 11, 2015. 03:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Walking On Thin Ice Regarding Customer Trust [View article]
    cparm,

    Copied this from the site. They raised the "starting price" by $2500 as compared to the graphic above which must be because of lower gas price assumptions or higher electricity rates. The assumptions are interesting.

    http://bit.ly/1AEOj3l

    "Gasoline Savings
    Electric vehicles are less expensive to fuel than gasoline powered vehicles. The average person drives between 10,000 and 15,000 miles and spends between $2,000 and $3,000 on gasoline per year. In comparison, the cost of electricity to power Model S over the same distance is five times lower. Over the five year average length of car ownership, that’s between $8,000 and $12,000 in gasoline savings.

    We've assumed a fuel economy of 20 miles per gallon for a comparable gasoline powered sedan. We’ve also assumed the national average of $0.12 per kilowatt hour for electricity, 10% charging on Tesla’s Supercharger network enabling free long distance travel and $3.90 per gallon for premium gasoline over the next five years."
    Apr 11, 2015. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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