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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: To Hike, Or Not To Hike? [View article]

    That's a very interesting datapoint. Put to call ratio is at a relative high which could be contrarian and increase a short squeeze.
    Sep 13, 2015. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: To Hike, Or Not To Hike? [View article]
    Too bad there isn't a Haiku version of this ;)
    Sep 13, 2015. 12:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple unveils 12.9" iPad Pro, new Watch finishes/accessories (updated) [View news story]
    97% satisfaction is eerily similar to the voting turnout in favor of Saddam Hussein in the bad old days of Iraq or the Republic of North Korea.

    Do they shoot dissenters?

    I meant that in a joking fashion PC police ;)
    Sep 9, 2015. 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shanghai down sharply; PBOC sees end to "correction" [View news story]
    "Correction" is an odd choice of words to describe the crash that has occurred in the last few months!

    I guess he doesn't want to go to jail for treason ;)
    Sep 7, 2015. 11:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Joins The Currency Wars [View article]

    "It seems a shame to sell oil for less than it is worth to produce."

    It all depends upon what the fixed costs are versus the variable costs - if your fixed costs are reduced more by producing then you will keep producing until you can't do it anymore. That's why it can be a vicious downward spiral at the end of which there will be fewer producers and prices will rise. That's the market mechanism in action - I have no doubt we will see a lot of bankruptcies, restructurings and cheap M&A coming out of this cycle in the years ahead.

    Of course a spike in the price of oil would change that but I am not sure what the catalyst for that would be right now.

    Good luck.
    Sep 7, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Default Risk For The Financial Sector [View article]
    On a practical real-world basis the CDS spreads give you zero real-time warning on when things are about to go really bad. Just look at those charts!

    The spikes were instantaneous. They seem to act more as a coincident or lagging indicator for trading or investing purposes. They spent most of 2008 in a range similar to now.

    What warning did they give?

    The flipside is that at their maximum peak that seemed to coincide with maximum fear and an awesome investment entry point so perhaps they are useful as a contrarian indicator.
    Sep 6, 2015. 11:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time To Revise The Year-End Market Targets? [View article]

    "Canada economy is mainly depending on export and its trade with China is much more than USA."

    If you are going to correct someone make sure you use the right facts!

    75% of Canada's exports go to the US with a minuscule number going to China (5%) by comparison:
    Sep 6, 2015. 11:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: The Bull Market Is At Its Most Critical Juncture Since It Began [View article]

    You are welcome. Updated every week. I find it very informative. Amazingly it seems to be free!
    Sep 6, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Bubble Is Bursting [View article]
    "All of this should come as no surprise to Tesla watchers. Musk tends to promise more than he can deliver and then attempts to make up for shortcoming later on. "

    How about that we won't need to raise cash because we will be cashflow positive schtick from earlier this year?

    All those bulls who called us crazy for stating the obvious - math is math.

    How can you trust anything he says on the financial state of the company?
    Sep 5, 2015. 01:18 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada Joins The Currency Wars [View article]
    Is the Canadian economy a leading or lagging indicator for the US economy?

    Has anyone done any correlation work on this?

    With Canada, the US's largest trading partner, in recession it does seem rather odd that US growth has picked up. Is Canadian weakness reflecting the US winter weakness on a lagging basis?

    Or is the simpler explanation that US growth is overstated?

    Inquiring minds want to know!
    Sep 5, 2015. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Crash 2015: The Dow Has Already Plummeted 2200 Points From The Peak [View article]
    "Fear and Greed" - nice succinct summary of where markets eventually go in the shorter to medium term regardless of fundamentals.
    Sep 5, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Automobile M&A: Place your bets [View news story]
    TSLA build vs. buy?

    Seems the cost of building a competitor or competitive offering is less than the current market cap and the opportunity to buy in the future at a lower price seems probable so I see no M&A interest for TSLA at this market cap.
    Sep 5, 2015. 12:32 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: The Bull Market Is At Its Most Critical Juncture Since It Began [View article]


    It seems like a broken record, but "bulls" are now at the lowest levels since the March 2009 lows."

    What made that a great buying moment was the record bearishness in the same survey - right now that condition is not the same but it is heading in that direction. The "neutrals" are still high and they are closet bulls.

    As you rightly point out the contrarian play is there, but maybe a little early based upon the lessons of past market psychology - more pain could create an even better buying opportunity.

    Add this to the mix and maybe the case is even stronger to wait:

    " Money flows back to stock funds as investors tiptoe in

    Published: Sept 4, 2015 7:38 a.m. ET
    Investors thrust a net $10.7 billion into stock funds in the past week, marking the first weekly inflow in three weeks, says a Bank of America Merrill Lynch note."

    Great write up by the way!
    Sep 5, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Suffers A Political Hit [View article]
    "Chipotle is mostly good calories"

    Can you prove that?

    Anyway, according to NYT average burrito at Chipotle is 1000 calories. Big Mac has about 560 calories.

    Most people have some form of drink with their meals so that's a wash.

    You will get fatter munching down on Chipotle burritos over time versus a Big Mac.

    I can't believe I let myself get caught up in this discussion!

    Sep 4, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Suffers A Political Hit [View article]
    A Chipolte burrito does have more calories than a Big Mac.

    Not sure which tastes better though :)
    Sep 4, 2015. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment