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  • How Will The No Taper Surprise Affect Stocks? [View article]

    The "cyclical" part makes sense and explains a lot.

    I can clearly see how it can be misused in the wrong hands.

    Last questions (I promise). Is there any connection between the dividend yield rate and the resulting valuation?

    Are stocks "worth more" with a higher dividend yield?

    6% & 7% yields during the 50's versus the 2% or so now as an example.

    Thank you.
    Sep 21 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The No Taper Surprise Affect Stocks? [View article]

    Thanks for the feedback.

    On point 4, my thought was S&P earnings were around $61/share in 2009 and in the current period it is likely to be closer to $110/share (Q4 2008 was -$24/share!).

    I don't calculate DDM's so maybe I am missing something in how it is done. Perhaps doing it for the the index rather than an individual stock means it won't make sense.

    Isn't there a connection between the EPS and the assumed dividend payout stream in a DDM model? Wouldn't starting with a higher EPS directly translate to a higher overall value?

    In 2009, DDM would have put a low value on the market and today it presumably puts a higher implicit value on that same market despite the fact that we are talking about the same companies - the only difference is the timing of the initial EPS in the stream of future flows.

    So it would give you two different values for the same stream of cashflows, how do you know which one is correct?

    That seems problematic. Would it make sense to use something like CAPE to adjust for that?

    Thanks. I appreciate the education!
    Sep 21 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will The No Taper Surprise Affect Stocks? [View article]

    Question I have always wondered about when using Dividend Discount Models to value stocks is:

    "How do you take into account the inevitability of earnings being reduced during recessionary periods and the resultant impact on the dividend stream?"

    It seems simplistic to assume that dividends are an uninterrupted stream of cashflows that stays the same or increases forever. Of course the higher the discount rate used in the model the less likely you are to introduce distortion. What is your assumption for the discount rate in your models?

    Also you will clearly get wildly different valuations for your analysis depending upon the starting point for the dividend stream in the business cycle - 2009 vs. 2013 as an example.

    Sep 21 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPA to set carbon limits on power plants [View news story]
    One other item to make you go hmm.

    "Obama Has Had The Fewest Hurricanes Of Any President
    Posted on May 8, 2013 by stevengoddard

    NOAA keeps hurricane records back to 1850. The average number of US hurricane strikes per presidency is almost eleven. Obama’s presidency has had only three hurricane strikes, matched only by Abraham Lincoln and Benjamin Harrison.

    Grover Cleveland and FDR both presided over 26 hurricanes, almost nine times as many as Obama."

    The accompanying chart is interesting:

    Grover Cleveland was President in 1885 by the way in which 26 hurricanes occurred at the temperature low based upon the NASA series. Also keep in mind they didn't have hurricane hunters and technology back then so it is very likely the numbers were even higher back then.

    The point is correlation is not causality. Pointing to hurricanes as evidence of "man-made" (emphasis on man) global warming is pure bunk as the recent record shows.
    Sep 21 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPA to set carbon limits on power plants [View news story]

    I know it's probably hopeless to try to offer you an opportunity to expand your thinking and consider alternatives but here goes:
    "Global warming slows - but scientists not reassured
    Associated Press
    Published 5:58 pm, Thursday, September 19, 2013
    Scientists working on a landmark U.N. report on climate change are struggling to explain why global warming appears to have slowed down in the past 15 years even though greenhouse gas emissions keep rising."

    Seems to me that people like you and the people who are making money from this hoax are the ones in denial.

    No one has ever been able to explain how taxing air will reduce the temperature of the planet. Since this is the preferred solution to the "problem" it is clear they are not serious about solving the problem.

    Good luck and rest well you have won the war on global warming as the above article attests :)
    Sep 21 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EPA to set carbon limits on power plants [View news story]

    Funny NASA eliminated the use of satellite data that showed the planet was cooling in the upper atmosphere from the dataset because it didn't fit the narrative.

    The argo sea buoys show no increase in water temperature or level so they also get ignored.

    I don't blame anyone for being uninformed on this issue because it is all about misleading by omission - ignoring truth and focusing on the narrative. The average person doesn't stand a chance.

    From NASA, they call this a crisis:
    "The average global temperature has risen about 1.4°F (0.8°C) since 1880, according to the new analysis."

    I call it natural variation even if you ignore all the flaws and lies that have perpetrated in the temperature record. 1880 was one of the coolest years in measured history so the whole premise is biased from the outset anyway. Everyone forgets in 1934 there was almost no ice in the arctic and it was the warmest summer on record and then temperatures fell despite the tremendous rise in CO2 levels (and then proceeded to cool for 40 years after that). Oh well. History will reveal this to be one of the most shameful episodes for the pursuit of science in history just like eugenics!

    It was warmer in the 1000's when Greenland was colonized by Eric The Red and it really was actually Green and there were no SUV's :)
    Sep 20 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPA to set carbon limits on power plants [View news story]
    "The IPCC found that “droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, in central North America.” A scientific overview published in June in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found that the severe drought of 2012, which at one point covered 39 percent of the United States, was still much less extreme than droughts in the 1930s (which covered 63 percent) and the 1950s (50 percent). And all those droughts pale next to the six-decade mega-drought in what is now the U.S. West in the 12th century.

    Damage from flooding in the United States has declined from 0.2 percent of gross domestic product in 1940 to less than 0.05 percent today. And U.S. hurricanes have not increased in frequency, intensity or normalized damage since at least 1900. It has been more than seven years since the United States was hit by a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. That is the longest such hurricane drought since 1900.

    A new paper in the journal Nature shows on a crucial measure that there is no increase in extremes. Looking at temperature variability as one kind of extreme weather, the authors document that extreme weather globally has been constant since 1960. Moreover, the researchers found that extreme weather as temperature variability will decline in the future with higher levels of carbon dioxide. They laconically conclude: “Our findings contradict the view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation.”

    It is understandable that a lot of well-meaning people, wanting stronger action on global warming, have tried to use the meme of extreme weather to draw attention. But alarmism and panic are rarely the best way to achieve good policies. The argument that global warming generally creates more extreme weather needs to be retired.

    Bjørn Lomborg, an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, directs the Copenhagen Consensus Center. He is the author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist” and, most recently, “How Much Have Global Problems Cost the World? A Scorecard From 1900 to 2050.”
    Sep 20 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EPA to set carbon limits on power plants [View news story]
    "fight what many see as global warming."

    This is progress. When even SA can start hedging on this phony science perhaps the general public will finally realize the scam that was very nearly pulled off - taxing the air we exhale!

    Too bad you can only get the truth about what's happening here and in the rest of the world in the foreign press.
    The report comes as climate change scientists working on a landmark UN report on climate change are struggling to explain why global warming appears to have slowed down in the past 15 years even though greenhouse gas emissions keep rising.

    Dr. Roy Spencer, a former NASA scientist and author of Climate Confusion, argues in his influential blog the UN report shows scientists are being forced to "recognise reality".

    He said: "We are now at the point in the age of global warming hysteria where the IPCC global warming theory has crashed into the hard reality of observations."
    Sep 20 08:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Won't Taper: Commercial Banks In Worse Shape Than Thought [View article]

    I am not sure you can compare those periods - one had mark to market, the current period doesn't. The numbers are at the discretion of the banks today versus the actual market value prior to the suspension of the FASB rules.

    The lifting of the suspension would have some interesting consequences I suspect.
    Sep 18 04:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refinances jump 18% amid lower rates; holiday adjustment [View news story]

    You are correct this is a really noisy series. The best place to view the trend is on Bill McBride's Calculated Risk blog:
    "The refinance index bounced around the last two weeks due to the holiday week.

    But the key is the refinance index is down 65% since early May, we will probably see the refinance index back to 2000 levels soon.

    Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

    The 4-week average of the purchase index was generally been trending up over the last year (but down over the last few months), and the 4-week average of the purchase index is up about 3% from a year ago. "

    The easy money from Refi's seems to have gone now that rates are rising.
    Sep 18 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Application Composite Index +11.2% [View news story]
    This was an interesting press release from their website:

    Title: Applications for New Home Sales Decreased in August 2013
    Source: MBA
    Date: 9/17/2013
    WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 12, 2013) — MBA’s Builder Application Survey data for August 2013 showed that mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased by 14 percent relative to the previous month. This change did not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.

    By product type, conventional loans composed 67.8 percent of loan applications, FHA loans composed 17.3 percent, RHS/USDA loans composed 1.0 percent and VA loans composed 13.9 percent. The average loan size of new homes decreased from $288,382 in July to $284,392 in August.

    Utilizing information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors, MBA estimates that sales of new single-family homes were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 424,000 in August 2013. On an unadjusted basis, the MBA estimates that there were 35,000 new home sales in August 2013.

    MBA’s Builder Application Survey tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country. Utilizing this data, as well as data from other sources, MBA is able to provide an early estimate of new home sales volumes at the national, state, and metro level. This data also provides information regarding the types of loans used by new home buyers. Official new home sales estimates are conducted by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis. In that data, new home sales are recorded at contract signing, which is typically coincident with the mortgage application.
    Sep 18 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage ETF Paying 15% Yield After Price Pullback [View article]
    This was a good discussion of REM from last year

    "The fund makes for an interesting exchange-traded fund in that it has one of the worst tracking errors in the business. The fund seeks to track the FTSE NAREIT All Mortgage Capped Index, but because the underlying index tends to be more concentrated than laws allow for exchange-traded funds, it should be viewed as an actively managed ETF. ETFs cannot hold more than 25% of their assets in a single security."

    Does REM actually own the underlying shares or trade the derivative of it?
    Sep 17 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock futures soar as Summers pulls out of running for Fed chief [View news story]
    Markets move on fundamentals!


    Seriously if this "the reason" why futures are up then it really has become a crapshoot driven by the response of the algos to the latest "news".
    Sep 15 10:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bernanke Change Course? [View article]

    Do you follow the MBA weekly report on mortgages?

    Just curious as to your impression of the economic impact resulting from the collapse in refi's since the beginning of the year. The ability to refi has probably been the most useful impact of QE & ZIRP in that people have been able to greatly reduce their fixed costs and free up disposable income as a result. The rise in rates has basically destroyed this market.

    From Calculated Risk on this week's report:
    "The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week. The Refinance Index has fallen 71 percent from its recent peak the week of May 3, 2013 and is at the lowest level since June 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier."

    The accompanying chart shows the "cliff-like drop" and that's no exaggeration.

    Truthfully I am clueless as to whether this is an important story or just one more bit of interesting but ultimately useless data.

    Is there a source for quantifying the impact of the refi's and how they have translated to consumption?

    Do you have an opinion?

    Sep 15 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The $64 Billion Question [View article]
    Exactly the level of intelligent and informed argument you would expect from someone named Gumby.

    Sep 12 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment