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GaltMachine

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  • What Elon Musk Is Really Selling [View article]
    "So why believe? Because to believe otherwise is to give in to despair. We desperately want to believe that the climate crisis can be averted and Elon Musk comes on like a hero on a white horse to say, yes, it can be, with fast cars and big batteries."

    That has to be the single worst rationale for buying a stock that I have ever read.
    May 7, 2015. 11:11 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    antigua,

    I agree with the life-cycle pollution argument for these vehicles - they are not green.

    Having said that there are better and more direct ways to "save the world" then building $100k (toy) cars for the rich.
    May 7, 2015. 08:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    Why would q/q revenue fall for a "production but not demand constrained" company?

    How does that make sense?

    What was the explanation?

    Also their Quick Ratio got materially worse this quarter because of the $400 million dollar cash burn. The longer they wait, the more difficult and costly it will be to raise debt.

    They will burn $1.5 billion in additional capex so that means they have exactly that amount of cash on the balance sheet. That is seriously scary for a company this size with this level of fixed cost.
    May 6, 2015. 09:55 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla affirms 2015 delivery guidance; margin growth boosts EPS [View news story]
    MJ,

    "Tesla is a technology company."

    Well if that were true then it is a pretty horrible one with gross margins that low. A good tech company like a SaaS company has gross margins in the 80% range not 25%.

    Heck even AAPL has about twice the gross margin and it is a manufacturer of relatively low-cost items by comparison.

    You better hope it doesn't get comped on this basis ;)
    May 6, 2015. 09:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    http://on.mktw.net/1H2...

    Quotes from the conference call (I actually have a hard time believing he talks like this so I think I will listen to an archived call myself):

    ZEV credits are really not material, Musk says, questioning the point of the question.

    The entire gigafactory capacity could go to stationary storage, Musk says. Cars would still get the priority over the batteries, though.

    “It really feels like the stationary storage demand, man, is just nutty,” Musk says.

    And Tesla is hiring: Net personnel growth is seen around 20-30%.

    Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley gets to ask his question, and it is about the Model X. Is he right that he’s seeing a slight launch delay to late Q3?

    Musk doesn’t address specifics, but repeats that Tesla wants to make sure it is delivering a product that is “thoroughly” checked and rechecked.

    “We don’t want to be talking door issues with the X,” Musk says, reminding people that Tesla did have hiccups with the Model S’s door handles.

    Musk says Tesla is doing quite a bit of advance work on the Model 3 but it doesn’t translate into a lot of capex. Capex comes at later stages.

    And on Model 3 timing, Musk has this to say: Tesla is hoping to showing it off around March of 2016 “but don’t super hold me to that month,” Musk says. Sales likely in 2017.
    May 6, 2015. 09:38 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Productivity Is Less Than 25% Of Its Peers [View article]
    rennatus,

    It should be pointed out that he used the phrase: "Musk predicted that Tesla should be capable of delivering more than 100,000 cars per year by the end of 2015."

    "Should" is what is classically known as a weasel word. That's not a prediction that's an aspiration (and hence not accountable)!
    May 6, 2015. 09:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla affirms 2015 delivery guidance; margin growth boosts EPS [View news story]
    There are better ways to save the world then building $100k cars for the rich.

    Just saying.

    ;)
    May 6, 2015. 09:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full Simulation Of The Tesla Battery: Insights For Investors [View article]
    Ivan,

    "Adding more batteries doesn't change the economics on the return on your investment, which is negative."

    Actually I think it makes the ROI worse ;)
    May 6, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Full Simulation Of The Tesla Battery: Insights For Investors [View article]
    proberge,

    Interesting thought but there is no need for analogies when you can focus on the subject at hand: batteries.

    Batteries are not coffee.

    Panasonic is selling head to head against TSLA in France and yet they are TSLA's supplier hence my comment. So knowing the end price and the input costs (must be higher for TSLA on the battery component) we can figure out who is or isn't making money on this. In the end it would seem that the big beneficiary in both scenarios is Panasonic as Tales concludes.
    May 6, 2015. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full Simulation Of The Tesla Battery: Insights For Investors [View article]
    Tales,

    How is it possible for the buyer (Tesla) to have better margins than the seller/manufacturer (Panasonic) on the batteries?

    Is Panasonic selling them at a loss so that TSLA can make a profit?
    May 6, 2015. 01:16 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Trigger For Reducing Exposure - Its All About Bonds [View article]
    Tack,

    "that would make U.S rates fall,"

    I assume you mean govt bonds but under the scenario discussed what would happen to corporates and high yield?

    Would they spike even as treasury rates fall?

    Thoughts?
    May 6, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full Simulation Of The Tesla Battery: Insights For Investors [View article]
    GreenTech,

    I fully expect that your squiggly lines will be the source of derision from those that don't appreciate your efforts :)

    The key takeaway for me was:

    "A 30-50% drop in price would correspond to a massive broadening of their addressable market and investors should treat such an announcement as a play for an aggressive expansion of their battery business."

    Curious as to whether this is possible using Li-On. Thoughts?

    Thanks!
    May 6, 2015. 01:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Productivity Is Less Than 25% Of Its Peers [View article]
    SoFLA,

    "In late 4Q 2014, it was reported that Tesla Motors had "the highest revenue per employee (RPE) in the automobile manufacturers industry" -- Tesla came in with the highest ranking with an RPE of $2.7 million"

    Even the source is dubious for this article. A blog post from a Tesla site without sourcing?

    You can do better than that. The 10-K is the 10-K and it has all the metrics as quoted above. If you are going to dispute the article do it with the right facts and/or arguments some of which have been raised above.

    Comment on the blog article:
    http://bit.ly/1byaa4m
    Mark B. Spiegel says:
    November 11, 2014 at 7:03 am

    This is completely false. In the most recent 10-K it says “As of December 31, 2013, we had 5,859 full-time employees.” By now they probably have around 7000. Meanwhile, the current annualized revenue run-rate (non-GAAP) is $3.4 billion. $3.4 billion divided by 7000 = $486,000 per employee.
    May 6, 2015. 12:46 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Productivity Is Less Than 25% Of Its Peers [View article]
    Nice one!
    May 6, 2015. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors earnings on tap; can it drive to 55K? [View news story]
    "So they see the IPAD useless. And was coming just a coupled of months later, is just an history everybody knows."

    Last time I checked a Powerwall won't play video, take pictures, live chat, do email, play music, etc.

    Maybe in the next version or tweet it will.

    The Powerwall is the equivalent of buying insurance and most people hate buying insurance.
    May 6, 2015. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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