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GaltMachine

GaltMachine
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  • MBA Mortgage Application at -2.5% [View news story]
    AIP,

    The only proof we have that GDP is at this level is based upon the pronouncement of the BEA which is always subject to revision.

    Case in point Q1 2011 which was negative after revisions. Funny how no one remembers how massively they missed on that and that's recent history.

    Curious as to why no one picked up on and commented upon the revised 2011 Q1 GDP report. It went from 0.3% to negative 1.3%.

    http://1.usa.gov/tJ2WiY

    The original advance estimate came in at 1.8% on April 28th for a total swing of 3.1%. That truly is an epic miss in my opinion.

    If revisions can be this large, is it really wise to be sanguine about the risks when we are in such tepid growth at present?

    Revisions like that only serve to fuel the conspiracy kooks and in this case they would have been vindicated.

    The 3rd official estimate of Q1 2011 was 1.9%:

    http://1.usa.gov/1dq4lF0
    “Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2011 (Third Estimate); Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2011 (Revised Estimate)

    Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
    located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2011, (that
    is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau
    of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.”

    What’s actually astounding about this period is that Q4 2010 came in at 2.8% so the swing from Q4 to Q1 was negative 4.1%!!!

    Was there any real-time data at that time that even hinted at that magnitude of negative change?

    Truly fascinating from a data dump, geek point of view.

    PMI charts and the intermodal rail data were very strong (compared to today) for the period preceding and after the negative quarter and I have no idea how that data would have led you to think a strongly negative quarter was straight ahead.

    This is truly fascinating to me as I dig into it.

    I bet you could datamine Calculated Risk’s chart porn and find even more non-confirmatory signals.

    This was truly a bizarre economic period :)
    Aug 29 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNBC ratings slump gets worse [View news story]
    Funny I wonder how many of the remaining viewers do that as well?

    :)

    Me I just have it on and when I walk buy I check the scrolls which are pretty good in HD. Every once in a while they have a good guest.

    CNBC is the financial services advertising network not a how to investing channel.
    Aug 29 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic warning: Consumer Comfort Index falls out of recovery zone [View news story]
    bbro,

    I think this thing is like most of these consumer confidence measures - broken. Every single one of them is in the recession zone by historical measures and has been since the recession ended.

    They had more predictive value prior to 2008.

    The one that seems to matter more is the survey of small business confidence.
    Aug 29 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable goods sinks 7.3% [View news story]
    Wow. y/y NSA was flat. y/y SA also nearly flat.

    http://1.usa.gov/GYbi0M
    Aug 26 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bernanke Bull Market Ending Along With The Chairman's Departure? [View article]
    jt,

    Please consider using paragraphs in the future - it would make your comments much easier to read.
    Aug 23 10:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales at 394K [View news story]
    Wow. Now that's a miss!
    Aug 23 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' production forecast in focus again [View news story]
    Mark,

    I clicked on that link and it has this chart attached. So if there is a mistake it is CNBC's error.

    Tesla Production
    Projected:
    2013: 21,000
    2014: 40,000
    2016: 1000,000
    Source: Company Estimates

    The number quoted on the chart on the interview is 100k so clearly it is a transposition error on CNBC's end.
    Aug 22 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Respectfully Disagree, No 1987 Crash In U.S. Equities [View article]
    "A spike in credit spreads is an absolutely necessary indicator for a market crash to occur. We may be seeing it in emerging markets debt (even that's been relatively tame), but we're definitely not seeing it yet in the U.S"

    By the time you see that won't it be too late?

    Curious how that ends up being useful unless it actually gives you some real advance warning.

    I agree with this statement but not for the reasons mentioned:

    "Given current macroeconomic conditions, I think it's unlikely we see a stock market crash in 2013"

    Curious as to whether you could have used the same arguments in late 2007 as you are using today to support the thesis. I think this is just generic proof that applies at all times until it doesn't.

    Good read though.
    Aug 22 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' production forecast in focus again [View news story]
    How do they go from 40,000 to 1,000,000 vehicles in 2 years?

    Is that actually possible from a manufacturing, resources, factories, batteries, manpower, and facilities point of view?

    I am all for optimism but this would seem like a miracle from a purely objective point of view.

    Before I get excoriated, I will point out I have no equity position either way.
    Aug 22 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks reverse course to turn higher [View news story]
    Anybody else find this one hilarious now that the markets are closed?
    Aug 21 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bernanke Bull Market Ending Along With The Chairman's Departure? [View article]
    wmarkw,

    Paying attention to the magician's hands is why most people never see how the magic trick is actually done.
    Aug 21 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bernanke Bull Market Ending Along With The Chairman's Departure? [View article]
    Copa,

    Thanks. That is hilarious.
    Aug 21 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bernanke Bull Market Ending Along With The Chairman's Departure? [View article]
    is there a link to that?
    Aug 20 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bernanke Bull Market Ending Along With The Chairman's Departure? [View article]
    flash,

    I had no idea you could leverage treasuries so highly.

    Crazy risky though - turns a "risk-free" asset into a crash test dummy :)
    Aug 20 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: The Fed's Faustian Bargain For The U.S. Economy [View article]
    wmarkw,

    Exactly right. A continuing backdoor payoff to the banks in addition to the initial bailout. This is the real reason we still have ZIRP.

    It so complex and convoluted for a reason - so that the average person can't understand it.
    Aug 19 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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