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GaltMachine

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  • Tesla EPS Estimates Drop As Earnings Approach [View article]
    "Average estimate down 87% in past year."

    This is a truly amazing statistic. How wrong will the next round of forecasts be?
    May 4, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla EPS Estimates Drop As Earnings Approach [View article]
    Tales,

    "TSLA will likely remain a good customer for Wall Street...huge potential conflicts of interest"

    I think this changes the moment the Sell Side determines that more money can be made on the short side rather than the long side. The only loyalty is to profit :)
    May 4, 2015. 10:24 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Storage Battery Big Picture [View article]
    "It is public knowledge from the Tesla Gigafactory announcement that of the 50GWh of packs expected from the factory, 30% or about 15GWh are intended for storage applications."

    There is no Gigafactory yet so obviously these batteries are not being produced by Tesla which means they are buying them from someone else which therefore means they cannot have a cost advantage over the company they are buying them from currently.
    May 4, 2015. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Powerwall Battery Hype Justified? [View article]
    "While this may sound like really a big deal, in actuality, the market today for this application space is close to non-existent."

    That was in the middle somewhere. I think that would have made a better concluding statement for this article.
    May 4, 2015. 10:15 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 10kWh Back-Up Battery [View article]
    goldtean,

    "Or get five and you can do 5kw for 10 hours or 10kw for 5 hours."

    As you add a unit it costs you money for each unit which will reduce the ROI on the investment. You can add as many as you like if you are not trying to save money.
    May 3, 2015. 02:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Stock Market Crash Already Begun? [View article]
    Petrarch,

    "consumers have received a "tax cut" but they have not reacted - some of that was the winter but a lot of that is just due the calendar - not enough time has elapsed - consumers need to get used to the idea of having the extra cash"

    I live in SouthFL and our gas prices have climbed back significantly. We were seeing $2.12/gallon on regular in December which is now in the $2.70 range. Still cheaper than a year ago but the trend seems to be going in the other direction which might explain why people are not reacting to the "tax cut" - it fells like it might be transitory.

    I think we just continue to muddle along in a slow growth mode - which is probably exactly what the market would want. High growth is scary and negative growth is scary, current growth seems just right :)
    May 3, 2015. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Biggest issue for AAPL will be the y/y comps once we get closer to the anniversary of the Model 6 launch. Was that pent up demand satisfied or can they show serious growth?
    May 3, 2015. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 10kWh Back-Up Battery [View article]
    Jarbear,

    "Musk is a media darling"

    Which leads to his next business venture - Fragrances:

    Elon Musk - "That New Subsidy Smell"

    http://amzn.to/1AxTbpk

    Ahh, by the way, that was meant as humor for all my Vulcan/Tesla friends out there.
    May 3, 2015. 12:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Firing On All Cylinders Without Cylinders [View article]
    reds,

    Some of us think solar panels on a roof are hideously ugly as well so purely from an aesthetic point of view I wouldn't buy a house with them or install them on a home. I am sure there are people who feel the same way. It limits the appeal of a home to a smaller subset of buyers (perhaps more enthusiastic) which is not generally a good idea when you are selling a home.

    Kind of like lime green gremlin or a pink cadillac :)
    May 3, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FP: Keystone or not, Canada’s heavy oil will find its way to the Texas coast [View news story]
    Welsh,

    Thanks!
    May 3, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 10kWh Back-Up Battery [View article]
    From CNNMoney:

    http://cnnmon.ie/1ORbj9L

    "When will a Tesla home battery pay for itself?

    The answer depends on where you live -- and how you use it.

    If you live in the South and already own solar panels, it could take you just under three years to make up the cost of the $3,000 Tesla Powerwall battery.

    But if you live in the Pacific Northwest and don't have solar panels, it could take you at least 16 years to make up the cost of buying Tesla's new home battery.

    There are a lot of variables and some tricky math involved to figure out whether the Tesla Powerwall battery makes sense for you. For example, your power utility company might offer a subsidy. Then again, those savings might disappear when you hire an electrician to install it. "
    May 3, 2015. 11:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Firing On All Cylinders Without Cylinders [View article]
    fan of the,

    You clearly are not reading what has been posted with regard to Expected Value. They are independent bets on the same outcome - one will make you more money (Expected Value) then the other with the same amount at risk. The logical choice is to choose the bet with the higher payoff/payback which is the bet with Mike. You critiqued LT's "logic" and I rebutted. I am a very literal person. That's it!

    In order to make your bets equivalent you need to weight the outcomes differently and offer him more money to compensate. No different than the way football games have odds using +/- points on the over and under. Better teams versus weaker teams the spread is wider to win the same amount of money at risk.

    There is no reason why he can't do both but there is definitely a reason why he should take one over the other if he had to choose only one.

    I hope that helps. Good luck!

    I wish I could undo the "like" I gave you on your post ;)
    May 2, 2015. 03:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Firing On All Cylinders Without Cylinders [View article]
    fan of the underdog,

    "Your logic fails on the premise that it's the same amount of money at risk. The 2 bets aren't mutual exclusive.

    Granted my bet is riskier, and it's logical from the perspective of the gambler vs. the house"

    You contradict yourself in the two consecutive sentences. Now if Mike backs out (as I expect he will) then your bet is the only one available and then you would be correct.

    You need to read up on basic probability if you are going to engage in gambling especially poker.

    By the way would you like to join my game?

    ;)

    http://bit.ly/1QYLl2r
    "Summary

    Expected value is one of the fundamental concepts in probability, in a sense more general than probability itself. The expected value of a real-valued random variable gives a measure of the center of the distribution of the variable. More importantly, by taking the expected value of various functions of a general random variable, we can measure many interesting features of its distribution, including spread, skewness, kurtosis, and correlation. Generating functions are certain types of expected value that completely determine the distribution of the variable. Conditional expected value, which incorporates known information in the computation, is one of the fundamental concepts in probability.

    In the advanced topics, we define expected value as an integral with respect to the underlying probability measure. We also revisit conditional expected value from a measure-theoretic point of view. We study vector spaces of random variables with certain expected values as the norms of the spaces, which in turn leads to modes of convergence for random variables."
    May 2, 2015. 02:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Net Metering Leaves Tesla Home Battery Storing A Lot Of Hype [View article]
    Cparm,

    http://bit.ly/1Pcgc82

    "Technology
    Wall mounted, rechargeable lithium ion battery with liquid thermal control.
    Models
    10 kWh $3,500 For backup applications 7 kWh $3,000 For daily cycle applications
    Warranty
    10 years
    Efficiency
    92% round-trip DC efficiency
    Power
    2.0 kW continuous, 3.3 kW peak
    Voltage
    350 – 450 volts
    Current
    5.8 amp nominal, 8.6 amp peak output

    Compatibility
    Single phase and three phase utility grid compatible.
    Operating Temperature
    -4°F to 110°F / -20°C to 43°C
    Enclosure
    Rated for indoor and outdoor installation.
    Installation
    Requires installation by a trained electrician. DC-AC inverter not included.
    Weight
    220 lbs / 100 kg
    Dimensions
    51.2" x 33.9" x 7.1"
    1300 mm x 860 mm x 180 mm
    Certification
    NRTL listed to UL standards"


    Based upon the fact that this thing weighs 220 lbs and is to be mounted on a wall you have to assume that it is a two person job which is one more than I think has been assumed by most people.
    May 2, 2015. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Firing On All Cylinders Without Cylinders [View article]
    fanofthe,

    "By choosing mikestesla bet OVER my bet, you've indicated that you're not as confident about the 50k limit as you are about the 55k limit. "

    It's quite the opposite in fact. The logical person (especially a gambler) will always choose a higher probability bet given the same amount of money at risk because the expected value of the payoff is always higher.

    I call that rather logical.

    If you were as confident as you describe and you wanted to entice him into the bet you should be offering him better terms on the bet rather the even money you have offered. You should be giving $5k to his $4.5k ($10k to $9k) bet to approximate the odds he gets from Mike assuming Mike's offer is legit.

    I know that's what I would demand ;)

    PS you may want to donate the winning proceeds to the charity of your choice if you wish to avoid all appearances of gambling for gain.
    May 2, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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