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  • Tesla Motors tips cautious approach to South Korea [View news story]

    You may want to take a look at the Tesla Motor Club Model X thread to get an idea of how things are going with this launch:

    Everybody is still speculating on what it will cost almost 2 months after the official launch.

    Not one vehicle delivered! It's almost laughable but not for people long this stock.

    So yeah, if I were the CEO of this company I would certainly be kicking more butt to get things done. Leadership begins at the top and that includes top management.
    Nov 19, 2015. 02:31 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Tesla Order 2,500 Danish License Plates? [View article]
    Someday the long version of this Story Stock will be rewritten ala Reader's Digest into its condensed Short Story Version.

    Geez I hope that doesn't age me too much.
    Nov 19, 2015. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Square prices IPO at $9/share, below $11-$13 range [View news story]
    POS has multiple meanings and they all apply in the case of this company ;)
    Nov 18, 2015. 10:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: The S&P Sits At An Inflection Point [View article]

    Also to be doubly clear, which is often the bane of these communications, I was not referring to the total size of the market, rather the amount that was EXPECTED to default by the Alliance Bernstein research team. They expected it to be about $400 billion a fraction of the total mortgage market comprised of subprime, alt a, etc. and they reasonably concluded at the time time that it would be manageable as a result.

    No one foresaw the cascading effect of what the daily mark to market requirements would have on the balance sheets of those involved particularly Bear and Lehman so what should have been isolated and contained was not.

    I still remain a buy and holder hoping for the best but I do have cash to put to work if things go south as well. I am as confused as anyone but adhere to a negative outlook on the economy and deflation as my default paradigm at this point.

    I can email the docs to you that I still retain if you are curious about the historical nature of the projections made. It was cautious but sanguine, much like today.

    I didn't realize this was a controversial viewpoint as it has been covered in detail by a variety of sources.

    Good luck!
    Nov 17, 2015. 12:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: The S&P Sits At An Inflection Point [View article]

    It was private client research in one of the Bernstein client updates so I don't think it was ever publicly available.

    However, this report from the St. Louis Fed discusses it in detail charts and all.

    Alt-A: The Forgotten Segment of the
    Mortgage Market
    Rajdeep Sengupta
    This study presents a brief overview of the
    Alt-A mortgage market with the
    goal of outlining broad
    trends in the different borrower and mortgage characteristics of Alt-A market originations between
    2000 and 2006. The paper also documents the default patterns of Alt-A mortgages in terms of the
    various borrower and mortgage characteristics over this period. (JEL G1, G21)
    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    January/February 2010,
    (1), pp. 55-71.
    Nov 16, 2015. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: The S&P Sits At An Inflection Point [View article]

    Oiy. Arguing over the esoterics of what caused what statistically is pointless especially with someone of your obvious statistical expertise. You obviously can slice and dice it anyway you like to support a/your viewpoint.

    The quote above featuring Bernanke you use also shows he was just as clueless about the future as anyone else. Unlike me, he was the head of the FED and the creator of the monetary policy that led to the disaster so that makes it that much more egregious.

    You can argue differently as I expect you will but history is history.

    The so-called Alt-A MBS's that were rated Triple A by the rating and insurance agencies were widely held at the time (even by Money Market funds) were ground zero for the meltdown and they approximated $400 billion according to Alliance Bernstein, the firm I worked for at the time, in August 2007.

    I have no idea what point you are trying to discredit here nor am I making any specific argument other than contagion is contagion spread by Derivatives & CDS's which greatly magnify the impact. That is why they are cutely described as "Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction".

    Nov 16, 2015. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: The S&P Sits At An Inflection Point [View article]
    "In the years between 2000 and 2007, the US economy issued $18 TRILLION in new mortgage debt. In the years between 2008 and 2014, the US economy issued $1.6 trillion in new junk bonds. So, this debt bubble in junk bonds is substantially smaller than the mortgage debt crisis which led up to the Great Financial Crisis. The takeaway is that junk bonds finance a relatively small slice of the US economy, while mortgages finance the most important asset in the economy."

    Not trying to be argumentative but the meltdown in 2008 began with the Subprime market which was around $400 billion of the mortgage market at the time and led to Bernanke's famous "subprime will be contained" statement. The cascading effects from subprime took the whole market down.

    Will junk bonds do this?

    I don't know but "contagion" is the right lesson of history rather than the absolute size of the market. Derivatives magnify exponentially the basic risks that exist at first glance.
    Nov 15, 2015. 04:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slowdown at major U.S. ports [View news story]
    Excellent write up on the subject at Calculated Risk:
    Nov 15, 2015. 10:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Rotten With Tesla? Doubtful [View article]
    A list of facts that actually prove nothing regarding the conclusion which makes it a form of:
    "Reductio ad absurdum (Latin: "reduction to absurdity"; pl.: reductiones ad absurdum), also known as argumentum ad absurdum (Latin: argument to absurdity), is a common form of argument which seeks to demonstrate that a statement is true by showing that a false, untenable, or absurd result follows from its denial, or in turn to demonstrate that a statement is false by showing that a false, untenable, or absurd result follows from its acceptance.[1]"
    Nov 14, 2015. 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors underestimating Tesla cash burn, Barclays says [View news story]
    Dilution is coming!
    Nov 13, 2015. 06:01 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone killing adds to cloudy outlook for pipeline companies [View news story]
    “President Obama today demonstrated that he cares more about kowtowing to green-collar elitists than he does about creating desperately needed, family-supporting, blue-collar jobs,”said Terry O’Sullivan, the union’s president, in a release following Obama’s Friday announcement.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook
    Nov 7, 2015. 11:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millions of cars the talk from Tesla Motors [View news story]
    Styling on the S is already looking tired at some point they will have to refresh/redesign and that's not even factored in!

    Add that to the cash burn list.
    Nov 6, 2015. 04:29 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Shorting Tesla Now [View article]

    The Institutions that support the stock are smacking their lips at the prospect of all the commissions that will becoming from the equity secondaries necessary to keep this thing afloat in the near future.

    When you burn more than $600 million/qtr of cash the math is obvious, just as it was obvious before the last dilution event that was never going to happen and then it did!

    The dilution that will be coming should be breathtaking to the longs, however what it does to the stock price is anyone's guess.

    Ironically a larger share base means a LOWER loss per share. It's so bizarre.
    Nov 5, 2015. 01:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital among three income picks from Gundlach [View news story]
    Bought NLY at $9.78 and just received my first dividend of 0.30 cents/share so if you buy here, I think the margin of safety is still actually reasonable regardless of an interest increase especially given that some rate increases have been priced into this stock. Just look at that 5 year chart.
    Nov 4, 2015. 03:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to buckle up for Tesla Motors earnings day [View news story]
    Isn't "Earnings Report" an oxymoron when it comes to TSLA?

    Nov 3, 2015. 08:37 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment