Petroleum Engineer. 30 years investing. All long. Mostly blue chip dividend paying old companies. 23% ROR for last 16 years before 2015. Down 10% in 2015. Mostly PM MSFT and Canadian Financial Cos.
carefully investing but more often investigating; have had 6 decades of remembered losses in both public markets and private placements. Still a board member of a nonprofit and still holding shares in companies seeded long ago but not yet having reached their investor exits. Trying to be thoughtful about investments and enjoying the experience. Becoming less current all the time, likely finding me to be a doddering old fuddy duddy for anyone reading what I post here.
Upon receiving my Masters degree in Music from Connecticut's Hartt School of Music, I took a job at a local Friendly's serving ice cream, where I perfected the disgruntled, comatose look, as seen in the photo at left. As a first-time participant in the American economy by way of fast-food, I noted the vileness and squalor into which our country was plummeting.
Now, as an SA commentator, I look forward to multiplying my earnings, once I get some, and settling down as a prime member of society, living out my remaining years in the luxury every red-blooded American deserves.
I currently live in a barn with my saxophones, watching America decline around me.
I am a small time trader in my IRA. I have mostly invested in the market and utilized market timing successfully several times. I am a civil engineer by training and have worked in design engineering and project management. I am currently engineering director for a large water and sewer utility in North Carolina. Basically I know nothing about trading and I am learning.
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I am a former sell-side analyst -- UBS 1996-2002, Needham 2002-2006 and ThinkEquity 2006-2008. These days I review automobiles and other technology products, as well as analyze the automotive and technology industries, and coming up with long/short ideas. I also continue to write (less frequently) on macroeconomics and politics.
Have been an investor for 60 years. Last 20 years have concentrated on biotechs. Have been senior exec with Shell and ITT before retiring 30+ years ago. My working areas were finance, informatics and international management. Taught MBA courses in management, informatics and communications. Speak French and Spanish plus some German.
I am a reformed MD, now with a finance MBA, and studying valuation independently by developing some conservative DCF models using FCF per share. You can make any investment work if you set a low enough discount rate.... that's one of the discouraging things about doing anything other than passive index investing. Forecasting isn't too accurate, those darn standard deviations are too wide. Margins of safety and alpha are rare and hard to separate from the noise.
I am projecting that the US govt is near insolvent and that we will be facing a new Bretton Woods currency agreement bringing gold back into the monetary system in combination with a sudden fiat currency devaluation (across the board-most currencies) against gold over a long weekend or an outright sovereign debt panic by 2020-2025. The least expected outcome double digit inflation is very likely sometime in the future. The Fed PRO-POVERTY policies are going to crush the poor, fixed pensioners and lower middle class since disposable income growth is limited. Beware middle class and retirees your purchasing power will drop dramatically when everyday necessities absorb a larger % of your income. To spread the word to the brainwashed American drones that this economy is one big illusion ponzi scheme and you are infact broke. Issuing more debt to solve a debt problem is crazy. I am accepting nominations for those that played a major positive and major negative impact on our economy. Inductees: The Hammer Hall of Fame Bill Black Brooksley Born David Walker Ron Paul Robert Rodriguez Peter Schiff David Stockman Janet Tavakoli John Bogle Elizabeth Warren Steve Wynn ============================== The Hammer Hall of Shame Ben MadMan Bernanke Lloyd Blankfein Bush II Jamie Diamond Shaun Donovan Barney Fwank Dick Fuld Alan "The Maestro" Greenspan Tim Geithner Paul king Krugman David Lereah Angelo Mozillo Obama The NAHB The NAR Henry Paulsen Nancy Pelosi Charles Prince Franklin Raines Robert Rubin David Stephens Larry Summers Bob Toll Maxine Waters Lawrence Yun
Conventional Wisdumb, www.conventionalwisdumb.com, lives in FL where he believes that Ignorance is the most expensive, deadly, and dangerous commodity in the world today. Formerly a VP with Bernstein's High Net Worth group he has his Series 7, 31, and 66 licenses which have fortunately all lapsed. One of life's lottery winners, he made enough money founding an internet business during the dotcom days (remember those?) to enjoy the good life and he is now a recovering entrepreneur who pesters those he loves with all kinds of crazy, outrageous, and contrary opinions, questions, and observations that are guaranteed to irritate. He also refers to himself in the 3rd party voice.