Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View imagtek's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Government defaults are "inevitable," a Morgan Stanley (MS) analysis says, given the burden of aging populations and the difficulty of securing more tax revenue. “The question is not whether [governments] will renege on their promises, but rather upon which of their promises they will renege, and what form this default will take.”  [View news story]
    This is total BS. If governments (Western democracies) default, it is because they have become so corrupt that they will default rather than rescend the huge tax breaks that the wealthy have enjoyed over the last decades. Compare tax rates of a generation ago with today. Unbelievable.

    For example; in the USA the social security system is predicted to be near default. Why? Because it is funded solely by a regressive 12% flat tax on the incomes of the poor and lower middle class that goes into the general tax fund. The wealthy have been able to totally opt-out of participating in this flat tax to the tune of trillions of dollars using bogus arguments about 'fairness' and 'return on investment' that apparantly do not apply to those less well off.

    The wealthy do not give a damn about the nations they live in and have been able to buy legislation that releases them from having meaningful stakes in the success of their nations of residence.

    The problem is government corruption, not absence of accessible resources to fund obligations. If governments pass legislation making the movement of large sums of money out of their jurisdiction extremely painful, and get tax rates back to where they were 50 years ago, problem is solved.
    Aug 25, 2010. 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'New Market Wizards': Lessons From Stanley Drukenmiller [View article]
    The streets are littered with the ruined people who were supremely confident, bet big and lost eveything. Funny, you don't read much about them in the financial blogs. I have been right over and over again, only go get whipsawed out of positions that, in the long term, proved correct. But I am still standing.

    Staying alive is job one.
    Aug 23, 2010. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Deficit Jumps to $49.9B in June: Bad News Indeed [View article]
    We can let the dollar weaken until we enjoy the standard of living of the rural poor in India, China, Philippines, etc.

    Then we can let it weaken even further, so we might have a chance of selling stuff for less than they can make it there. Problem is, then people begin to starve here by the millions and we have revolution and anarchy.

    But that is how globalization REALLY works. Funny no one told us that when they were ramping up the export of American jobs.

    The only way to protect the American standard of living is to aggressively manage trade balances via tarrifs and quotas. But time is running out.

    Screw the World Trade Organization.
    Aug 12, 2010. 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Manufacturing Myth [View article]
    Economics is war. Anyone who does not believe this has not visited Detroit or the urban American midwest recently. China, Japan, S Korea and all the other mercantalist economies that have prospered hollowing out the US economy have understood this fact from day one. Our insane trade policies served the sole purpose of allowing multinational corporations to profit enormously from the strip mining of American economic prosperity. Now that has run its course to its predictable end and the government must support the unemployed or let them starve. People do not starve quietly.
    Aug 5, 2010. 01:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2010 Economic Trends: Paths of Least Resistance [View article]
    We should look to Japan as a model for the future global economy. All sorts of negative adjectives are used to describe Japanese economic conditions, yet Japan is one of the most civilized and livable countries on earth with an intact environment, functional government/infrastruct... social cohesion, etc. Whatever happens, Japan will remain Japan. Europe and the USA, on the other hand, are redefining themselves into third world population overflow tanks in the pursuit of economic growth at any cost. Within a generation, Europe and the USA will be unrecognizable ethnically and culturally compared to what they were 50 years ago. This is not necessarily a good thing.

    Economic models that involve continuous growth in population and consumption of resources simply postpone inevitable apocalyptic social and environmental disaster. Mix this with ethnic/religious tensions that arise from massive immigration into stagnant economies and the scenarios in the event of a severe economic depression become truely nightmarish.

    Look to Japan. If humanity has a future worth living, the economic mechanism for achieving it will be found there.
    Jan 4, 2010. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan: Demographic Time Bomb Waiting to Explode [View article]
    Japan, as an island nation, realizes that populations cannot grow indefinitely, and that an economy dependent upon continuous population growth is unsustainable. At some point, growth must cease and an alternative economic model must come into play.

    For Japan to continue 'dynamic economic growth', it must become a multi-ethnic society via massive immigration. In short, the cost of continuing economic growth is Japan must cease to be Japan as it has existed for centuries.

    Japan has chosen to remain Japanese, at any economic cost. The alternative is growth, at any cost, sacrificing national identity to postponing near term economic difficulties. Such a fix is temporary. Inevitably, all societies and in time, humanity, will encounter an upper limit to economic growth.

    Japan is the model for a sustainable economic future, if there is one. It should be watched closely and its decision to remain true to its historical identity should be respected. Economic growth at any cost via multiculturalism and massive immigration is a recent elitist political ideology that has not yet played out. Twenty years from now, nations that have sacrificed their national identities to multiculturalism in order to provoke one last spurt of economic growth may very well envy the Japanese solution when an economic downturn inevitably occurs in their balkanized societies.
    Nov 5, 2009. 03:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CIT's Bankruptcy and the Trading Sardine [View article]
    Obama has rescinded the regulation that HIV (aids) positive individuals are barred from entering the USA. The floodgates are now open.An HIV positive foreigner in the USA can:a. infect more people with HIVb. become a permanent medical ward of the stateThe next step is for the courts to rule that HIV positive foreigner's in the USA illegally may not be deported because the absence of free HIV treatment in their nation of origin would be a 'death sentence'.It is over. This country is down the toilet. And I voted for this clown.
    Nov 2, 2009. 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar Is Now China's Problem [View article]
    There is more global wealth in the form of fiat currencies than there is physical resources to produce goods. Talk of China and India 'increasing consumption' is pathetic nonsense that can only lead to global eco-disaster. What is going to happen is global inflation of all currencies relative to food and commodities; i.e commodities are going to cost dramatically more in all currencies. It is physically impossible for India and China to achieve 1st world living standards except for tiny minorities. It is also economically impossible for the USA to maintain its existing living standards, except for tiny minorities. At some point, the world will share the same standard of living; probably akin to Cuba or Brazil. The age of opulence is over forever. Those who strive for what others cling to in a zero sum game can only resort to conflict. This is going to get ugly.
    Oct 13, 2009. 05:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be No Recovery and Markets Will Trend Lower [View article]
    Economics is war, and the USA unilaterally disarmed a generation ago.
    Sep 29, 2009. 11:51 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall [View article]
    There is more liquidity in the form of fiat currencies than there is planetary capacity to provide resources in response to liquidity flows without trashing the climate, etc. We have already exceeded any sustainable carrying capacity for this planet, and so-called 'economists' still talk of 'growth'. There is going to be an inevitable global collapse of all fiat currencies relative to commodities (global hyperinflation). None will escape. The global economy is the Titanic and we are short quite a few lifeboats. It is going to get nasty.
    Aug 4, 2009. 04:01 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on the RMB as a Reserve Currency [View article]
    All currencies must depreciate relative to the assets they can acquire.

    There is simply far too much 'wealth' in circulation in the form of currencies than there is real goods that a finite planetary system (the earth) can generate without rendering the environment uninhabitable.

    Economics is still mired in the 19th century.
    Jul 20, 2009. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Manipulation of Gold Prices [View article]
    The logic is impeccable, but nothing is ever simple. Gold soaks up the untold trillions in fiat currencies and avoids a global hyperinflationary disaster. The counter to that is if the precious metal spiral gets out of control, it could result in a deflationary debacle as precious metals become yet another disastrous bubble. A collapse in a precious metal bubble could very well be soaked up by equities (DOW 10,000). Eventually the system will stabilize, but it will be an incredible roller coaster ride and fortunes will be made/lost. We are probably seeing the early stages of that now with the wildly oscillating prices of precious metals relative to equities. The oscillations are simply going to get more extreme and more closely spaced in time. Where it will end, the state of the financial markets in their new 'steady state' five years hence? Who knows.
    Dec 12, 2008. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment