Jonas Elmerraji's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/318264/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/181517-h-t-love/37810-some-notes-about-observed-market-activity?source=feed#comment-798209 798209 seekingalpha.com/insta...]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:13:58 -0500 seekingalpha.com/insta...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171931-wholesale-power-a-smart-alternative-to-regulated-utilities?source=feed#comment-786576 786576 Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:11:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174572-why-the-market-s-set-to-move-lower-for-the-rest-of-the-month?source=feed#comment-769681 769681
In the longer term, the uptrend is still holding strong (see the chart above).]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:49:36 -0500
In the longer term, the uptrend is still holding strong (see the chart above).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171931-wholesale-power-a-smart-alternative-to-regulated-utilities?source=feed#comment-755695 755695
Yes, NRG is highly leveraged. That's par for the course in the power generation industry, and at present the company's debt service is relatively secure through 2010.

NRG's book value less intangibles and goodwill is around $17 per share, but that assumes that the company's power generation assets are only worth book. Like the article mentions, though, that's unlikely the case. I'd estimate that with a more realistic valuation on those properties, we're looking at $39.70 per share with those same intangibles discounted.

Morningstar's Travis Miller puts NRG's sum-of-the-parts valuation at closer to $50 per share.

Because the company is such a strong buyout candidate, that real-world valuation carries a lot more weight than it would otherwise.

Not sure about the ConocoPhilips reference...]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:14:04 -0500
Yes, NRG is highly leveraged. That's par for the course in the power generation industry, and at present the company's debt service is relatively secure through 2010.

NRG's book value less intangibles and goodwill is around $17 per share, but that assumes that the company's power generation assets are only worth book. Like the article mentions, though, that's unlikely the case. I'd estimate that with a more realistic valuation on those properties, we're looking at $39.70 per share with those same intangibles discounted.

Morningstar's Travis Miller puts NRG's sum-of-the-parts valuation at closer to $50 per share.

Because the company is such a strong buyout candidate, that real-world valuation carries a lot more weight than it would otherwise.

Not sure about the ConocoPhilips reference...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130068-those-calling-for-the-death-of-value-investing-are-wrong?source=feed#comment-456836 456836
The point is that value investing has been misapplied over the last decade; now some are saying that value investing is deal as a result. That's just not true.]]> Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:30:22 -0400
The point is that value investing has been misapplied over the last decade; now some are saying that value investing is deal as a result. That's just not true.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129835-staying-away-from-these-15-dividend-decreasers?source=feed#comment-455191 455191
David, I do agree with most of what you say, but the fact remains that whether or not attentive investors should have pared these positions, lots of people still own the stocks on this list (for a myriad of reasons). There are still lots of stocks out there that have decent payouts, but not these guys.

Oh, and thanks for the link to your article... it's a great read!

mdpath - Good catch. Thanks.
]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 14:34:33 -0400
David, I do agree with most of what you say, but the fact remains that whether or not attentive investors should have pared these positions, lots of people still own the stocks on this list (for a myriad of reasons). There are still lots of stocks out there that have decent payouts, but not these guys.

Oh, and thanks for the link to your article... it's a great read!

mdpath - Good catch. Thanks.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129366-has-the-market-actually-bottomed?source=feed#comment-452461 452461
You're entitled to your opinion but if you would deal with reality and and do some real research you would see that the future of the stock market over the next two decades is all but set in stone."

Fred, this is a technical piece; it takes a look at short-term trends (notice that we're looking at a 6 month chart) to take a look at where the market will be in weeks and months, not years.

If you think that it's out of the question to see a 20% swing in the next few months after the market jumped 23% in the last three weeks, that's your opinion, but it's one that I have some trouble resolving to.

The fact of the matter is that we're looking at a different kind of market; that's both scary and exciting. My subscribers - some of whom have been in the market since the 1960s - are saying the same thing. Still, it's an exciting market because there are myriad opportunities to make smart investments right now. Our track record is proof of that.

The fact is that the market has been irrationally exuberant for a long time doesn't mean that everything's ready to change now. To quote John Maynard Keynes, "...the market's ability to stay irrational often outlasts our ability to stay liquid."

Investor sentiment and economic fundamentals are changing on a daily basis, and right now, and that's going to dictate where the market goes much more directly than the P/E ratio of the S&P 500.

Maybe that'd be a good topic for a future article. Stay tuned.

]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:34:24 -0400
You're entitled to your opinion but if you would deal with reality and and do some real research you would see that the future of the stock market over the next two decades is all but set in stone."

Fred, this is a technical piece; it takes a look at short-term trends (notice that we're looking at a 6 month chart) to take a look at where the market will be in weeks and months, not years.

If you think that it's out of the question to see a 20% swing in the next few months after the market jumped 23% in the last three weeks, that's your opinion, but it's one that I have some trouble resolving to.

The fact of the matter is that we're looking at a different kind of market; that's both scary and exciting. My subscribers - some of whom have been in the market since the 1960s - are saying the same thing. Still, it's an exciting market because there are myriad opportunities to make smart investments right now. Our track record is proof of that.

The fact is that the market has been irrationally exuberant for a long time doesn't mean that everything's ready to change now. To quote John Maynard Keynes, "...the market's ability to stay irrational often outlasts our ability to stay liquid."

Investor sentiment and economic fundamentals are changing on a daily basis, and right now, and that's going to dictate where the market goes much more directly than the P/E ratio of the S&P 500.

Maybe that'd be a good topic for a future article. Stay tuned.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129366-has-the-market-actually-bottomed?source=feed#comment-451006 451006 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:10:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129366-has-the-market-actually-bottomed?source=feed#comment-450905 450905
If stocks break out above the trendline, we'll likely see the short-term uptrend continue in a sustained way, but from a technical perspective I think that the 200-day moving average (currently around 1000 for the S&P) is going to pose a serious ceiling for stock prices.
]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:35:55 -0400
If stocks break out above the trendline, we'll likely see the short-term uptrend continue in a sustained way, but from a technical perspective I think that the 200-day moving average (currently around 1000 for the S&P) is going to pose a serious ceiling for stock prices.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129118-14-dividend-increasers-that-deserve-a-second-look?source=feed#comment-450819 450819
"Surprised? Well, in the past month dividend-payers on the S&P have underperformed non-payers by 4.71%; they’ve underperformed by 12.76% since January."]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 10:52:36 -0400
"Surprised? Well, in the past month dividend-payers on the S&P have underperformed non-payers by 4.71%; they’ve underperformed by 12.76% since January."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119855-textron-s-selling-point-dividends?source=feed#comment-403503 403503
Overall, I think that the press release TXT put out today is favorable, especially when the market is fearing for the worst. The company may have cut dividends, but it didn't drop them. That's important. They also announced that their financial realignment of TFC is ahead of schedule.

Obviously I'd rather see them announce that they stuck gold underneath their corporate HQ, but if this is the earth-shattering news that the soothsayers have been proselytizing with, I'm fine with it.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 15:55:05 -0500
Overall, I think that the press release TXT put out today is favorable, especially when the market is fearing for the worst. The company may have cut dividends, but it didn't drop them. That's important. They also announced that their financial realignment of TFC is ahead of schedule.

Obviously I'd rather see them announce that they stuck gold underneath their corporate HQ, but if this is the earth-shattering news that the soothsayers have been proselytizing with, I'm fine with it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119855-textron-s-selling-point-dividends?source=feed#comment-391459 391459
I think that if you're looking at Textron as a going concern, dividends have to be included in the pot. TFC is the dark cloud that's lingering over the company right now, but if they can shed the division successfully in the next couple quarters they'll be in substantially better shape.

For now, liquidity is an issue for sure. Still, management has an aggressive liquidity plan in place that I'm betting will help the company hold out until they get their ducks in a row.

I'm sorry that you disagree with my rationale for holding Textron, but I do hope that the stock does well for you (for the obvious reasons).]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 23:50:58 -0500
I think that if you're looking at Textron as a going concern, dividends have to be included in the pot. TFC is the dark cloud that's lingering over the company right now, but if they can shed the division successfully in the next couple quarters they'll be in substantially better shape.

For now, liquidity is an issue for sure. Still, management has an aggressive liquidity plan in place that I'm betting will help the company hold out until they get their ducks in a row.

I'm sorry that you disagree with my rationale for holding Textron, but I do hope that the stock does well for you (for the obvious reasons).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119855-textron-s-selling-point-dividends?source=feed#comment-391274 391274 No. I guess I should have said don't judge an article by its title/a single paragraph/a single sentence. Before the word "dividend" is so much as mentioned there are around a thousand words breaking down why TXT is a bargain stock right now. This article came from a GARP investment letter, and the income was worth mentioning for subscribers who don't hear about it much.

Dividends ARE important for Textron, and they'll continue to be, but only in the context of value. It's the value that makes the yield that high, after all. The two are invariably connected.

To suggest that TXT is a buy based on dividends ALONE would be foolish, but I don't think it's accurate to say that's what's going on in the article. I also don't think it's reasonable to think that Textron will slash its dividends completely this year and never ever pay them again -- that's why dividends shouldn't be left out of the investment equation here.
]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:00:16 -0500 No. I guess I should have said don't judge an article by its title/a single paragraph/a single sentence. Before the word "dividend" is so much as mentioned there are around a thousand words breaking down why TXT is a bargain stock right now. This article came from a GARP investment letter, and the income was worth mentioning for subscribers who don't hear about it much.

Dividends ARE important for Textron, and they'll continue to be, but only in the context of value. It's the value that makes the yield that high, after all. The two are invariably connected.

To suggest that TXT is a buy based on dividends ALONE would be foolish, but I don't think it's accurate to say that's what's going on in the article. I also don't think it's reasonable to think that Textron will slash its dividends completely this year and never ever pay them again -- that's why dividends shouldn't be left out of the investment equation here.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119855-textron-s-selling-point-dividends?source=feed#comment-390974 390974
Yes, TFC has created a slew of problems for the company. Yes, those problems do threaten Textron's ability to deliver a dividend in the short term. But I don't think that what the company is going through now (which is purely thanks to the credit crunch) will be its undoing. It's my assertion that once that becomes clear to Wall Street, Textron's owners will be rewarded. We've certainly been rewarded since taking the position (you can see total returns at rhinostocks.com/member... )

Textron does have quite a bit of pressure to keep their dividends in place. That doesn't mean that they will when faced with the economic challenges the next couple of quarters will bring. That said, I think that over the long-term, the stock will recover.

Just as you shouldn't judge a book by its cover, please don't judge an article by its title - SA authors don't write them. Editors do.

]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:22:27 -0500
Yes, TFC has created a slew of problems for the company. Yes, those problems do threaten Textron's ability to deliver a dividend in the short term. But I don't think that what the company is going through now (which is purely thanks to the credit crunch) will be its undoing. It's my assertion that once that becomes clear to Wall Street, Textron's owners will be rewarded. We've certainly been rewarded since taking the position (you can see total returns at rhinostocks.com/member... )

Textron does have quite a bit of pressure to keep their dividends in place. That doesn't mean that they will when faced with the economic challenges the next couple of quarters will bring. That said, I think that over the long-term, the stock will recover.

Just as you shouldn't judge a book by its cover, please don't judge an article by its title - SA authors don't write them. Editors do.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120246-is-sds-a-way-around-market-volatility?source=feed#comment-389258 389258
Best in breed means that of all the ultrashort funds out there, SDS is the least volatile. While that may seem hard to fathom after losing 33% in such a short time, just take a look at some of the other ultrashort ETFs (like SKF). Their distortion is wildly greater than SDS.

Like I said in the article, SDS isn't a set it and forget it stock pick... you have to watch this one, or at the very least place a stop loss.

My subscribers are up around 3% right now on the position in about a month while the S&P has dropped just over 1.5%. ]]> Sun, 15 Feb 2009 11:26:01 -0500
Best in breed means that of all the ultrashort funds out there, SDS is the least volatile. While that may seem hard to fathom after losing 33% in such a short time, just take a look at some of the other ultrashort ETFs (like SKF). Their distortion is wildly greater than SDS.

Like I said in the article, SDS isn't a set it and forget it stock pick... you have to watch this one, or at the very least place a stop loss.

My subscribers are up around 3% right now on the position in about a month while the S&P has dropped just over 1.5%. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120246-is-sds-a-way-around-market-volatility?source=feed#comment-387272 387272 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 11:45:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120246-is-sds-a-way-around-market-volatility?source=feed#comment-386626 386626 ]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 23:10:04 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120246-is-sds-a-way-around-market-volatility?source=feed#comment-386437 386437 SDS has gained 21% since last February, so shorting it wouldn't have turned out very well. The only reason your portfolio would have made money is because SSO got creamed so badly (-68% over that period), not because they BOTH went down.

(note: it was ONLY 21% because of that volatility error we've been talking about)]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 18:42:38 -0500 SDS has gained 21% since last February, so shorting it wouldn't have turned out very well. The only reason your portfolio would have made money is because SSO got creamed so badly (-68% over that period), not because they BOTH went down.

(note: it was ONLY 21% because of that volatility error we've been talking about)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120246-is-sds-a-way-around-market-volatility?source=feed#comment-385880 385880
Also, like davboz says, the proportions you hold in your portfolio matter big time. It's a hedging tool. For us, SDS makes up only 13% of the Rhino Stock Report's portfolio and it's done a good job of achieving its objective thus far.]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 13:07:23 -0500
Also, like davboz says, the proportions you hold in your portfolio matter big time. It's a hedging tool. For us, SDS makes up only 13% of the Rhino Stock Report's portfolio and it's done a good job of achieving its objective thus far.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119855-textron-s-selling-point-dividends?source=feed#comment-383869 383869
TXT's Cessna business will also likely take a hit this year (as I mentioned in the article), but I think that order cancellations will be offset by the company's huge backlog.

Last quarter was dismal indeed, but if you remove TFC from the mix, Cessna and Bell actually performed pretty well. Given the company's value price, I think this bargain stock will fare well long-term. ]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 10:24:01 -0500
TXT's Cessna business will also likely take a hit this year (as I mentioned in the article), but I think that order cancellations will be offset by the company's huge backlog.

Last quarter was dismal indeed, but if you remove TFC from the mix, Cessna and Bell actually performed pretty well. Given the company's value price, I think this bargain stock will fare well long-term. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116432-the-cult-of-peter-schiff-is-it-deserved?source=feed#comment-366284 366284 2002 comes straight from the article that's referenced in that paragraph. I think that the ensuing comments do a good enough job of arguing timeline. This article is more about 2008 performance.

]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:37:53 -0500 2002 comes straight from the article that's referenced in that paragraph. I think that the ensuing comments do a good enough job of arguing timeline. This article is more about 2008 performance.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115419-spx-corporation-bring-on-the-boring-stocks?source=feed#comment-362539 362539 Wed, 21 Jan 2009 21:37:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114171-seagate-technology-hard-drives-are-easy-sell-for-2009?source=feed#comment-352743 352743
If I were just picking "good stocks" WDC would likely have made the cut... unfortunately, two HDD manufacturers didn't make sense for the Rhino Stock Report's model portfolio.

Watkins is pressured... margins got hit hard in the last quarter (per the article), but I think that Seagate will be able to tighten their belt in the next six months.

I wouldn't take the company's downgrade too seriously for a long term position... even if you do, you could look at their upgrade by Dinesh Moorjani as an offsetting rating.

The market does suggest the stock is cheap right now for a reason, but it doesn't have to be a good one... We'll get our first glimpse on January 21 when they report earnings.]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 18:20:30 -0500
If I were just picking "good stocks" WDC would likely have made the cut... unfortunately, two HDD manufacturers didn't make sense for the Rhino Stock Report's model portfolio.

Watkins is pressured... margins got hit hard in the last quarter (per the article), but I think that Seagate will be able to tighten their belt in the next six months.

I wouldn't take the company's downgrade too seriously for a long term position... even if you do, you could look at their upgrade by Dinesh Moorjani as an offsetting rating.

The market does suggest the stock is cheap right now for a reason, but it doesn't have to be a good one... We'll get our first glimpse on January 21 when they report earnings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112022-beware-the-recession-proof-stocks?source=feed#comment-336873 336873
If you're thinking about building positions in this market, my recipe for defensive plays consists of a strong balance sheet (i.e. the cash you mentioned and a manageable debt position), positive free cash flows, and a low price-to-book ratio.]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 14:21:04 -0500
If you're thinking about building positions in this market, my recipe for defensive plays consists of a strong balance sheet (i.e. the cash you mentioned and a manageable debt position), positive free cash flows, and a low price-to-book ratio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111163-why-is-u-s-transportation-a-losing-investment?source=feed#comment-331964 331964
But if you look at the companies I mentioned, you'll see that these guys make a profit and provide benefits to their employees at the same time (I know, a crazy concept these days). Having worked for one of the biggest pension fund managers in the world, I can tell you that profitability and employee benefits aren't mutually exclusive. Once a lot of companies realize that, the world will definitely be a better place.]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:28:45 -0500
But if you look at the companies I mentioned, you'll see that these guys make a profit and provide benefits to their employees at the same time (I know, a crazy concept these days). Having worked for one of the biggest pension fund managers in the world, I can tell you that profitability and employee benefits aren't mutually exclusive. Once a lot of companies realize that, the world will definitely be a better place.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110431-the-only-construction-stock-to-own?source=feed#comment-327446 327446 ]]> Fri, 12 Dec 2008 11:33:16 -0500 ]]>