Chris Shenfield

Why We're Not Buying This Market

Once we really see much more fundamental improvement in the US, the rally will be over. As for emerging markets, the fundamentals have already started improving. By the time you start buying, I'll start selling.

On Jun 01 12:51 AM Shareholders Unite wrote:

> Squares, we agree to a certain extent. The rally so far was justified,
> at 6500, a severe depression was priced in (we're not THAT pessimistic),
> but much more upside is not justified. Unless we really see much
> more fundamental improvement, we can't really see the rally get past
> 1000 on the S&P anytime soon. We do not think it's likely that
> we'll see that much fundamental improvement, for the reasons stated
> in the article. But we have no crystal ball..

Why We're Not Buying This Market

It was John Keynes, the influential British economist, who once said "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
What this means is regardless of whether you characterize the present market as "irrational" based on a dire economic prediction (as this article seems to do) or as a strong rally based on real prospects of improving fundamentals (see www.minyanville.com/ar...), Mr. Market is the final arbiter of stock prices. I go with the latter and have been buying this rally aggressively based on my view that prices move first, then fundamentals.