Big K's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/318895/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/158638-where-are-the-bears?source=feed#comment-648898 648898 Thu, 27 Aug 2009 10:57:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143508-china-s-investing-in-a-new-currency-and-it-ain-t-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-549700 549700
If the Chinese are stupid enough to keep their money with Tim "Madoff" Geithner and Ben "Ponzi" Bernanke, we are happy to take them to the cleaners too. Afterall, it is the American way. ]]> Tue, 16 Jun 2009 23:37:36 -0400
If the Chinese are stupid enough to keep their money with Tim "Madoff" Geithner and Ben "Ponzi" Bernanke, we are happy to take them to the cleaners too. Afterall, it is the American way. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140965-cramer-s-lightning-round-the-hottest-market-in-the-world-6-9-09?source=feed#comment-544835 544835 will not have trouble refinancing in 4 years, when their earliest note
is due. Realty Income also has been paying down some debt. Cramer has been right about many companies, but here I think there is much less risk than he is giving them credit for. Many REITS have an unbelievable amount of debt, with little chance of repaying it. Not the case for Realty Income who has a debt of only $1.3 billion (about $13/share). Consider, for example, similarly sized Weingarten Realty, a company that up until the last several years, had been well managed and conservative. Their debt has suddenly ballooned to $3.2 billion in the last several years (about $26/share after they issued more shares). Unlike irresponsible Weingarten and many other REITS, Realty Income has been much more prudent and conservative in their use of debt to expand, so I believe much less risk than most. ]]> Fri, 12 Jun 2009 22:56:33 -0400 will not have trouble refinancing in 4 years, when their earliest note
is due. Realty Income also has been paying down some debt. Cramer has been right about many companies, but here I think there is much less risk than he is giving them credit for. Many REITS have an unbelievable amount of debt, with little chance of repaying it. Not the case for Realty Income who has a debt of only $1.3 billion (about $13/share). Consider, for example, similarly sized Weingarten Realty, a company that up until the last several years, had been well managed and conservative. Their debt has suddenly ballooned to $3.2 billion in the last several years (about $26/share after they issued more shares). Unlike irresponsible Weingarten and many other REITS, Realty Income has been much more prudent and conservative in their use of debt to expand, so I believe much less risk than most. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141799-a-year-and-a-half-later-the-mainstream-press-gets-underemployment?source=feed#comment-536061 536061 Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:17:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140146-pequot-capital-closes-expect-downward-pressure-on-top-holdings?source=feed#comment-524169 524169
BTW, the piddly holdings of this hedge fund are insignificant, especially compared with Madoff's caper, and will be a drop in the ocean when they are liquidated. ]]> Sat, 30 May 2009 12:19:46 -0400
BTW, the piddly holdings of this hedge fund are insignificant, especially compared with Madoff's caper, and will be a drop in the ocean when they are liquidated. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140357-how-todays-2-46-dividend-yield-could-destroy-your-wealth?source=feed#comment-524033 524033 Sat, 30 May 2009 09:54:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139417-current-rally-are-we-in-may-2003-or-may-2008?source=feed#comment-517116 517116
While the economy is still sputtering, it is far from dead. The recovery of the averages recently is not yet a bull market, but a correction of an oversold condition. For stocks to fall again another 50 or 60% from here(because this is where the author might like to "revalue" them), the country's economy would have to regress back to a point where there is 30% unemployment, and we all should grow our own vegetables and hunt buffalo. It ain't gonna happen.]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 17:36:05 -0400
While the economy is still sputtering, it is far from dead. The recovery of the averages recently is not yet a bull market, but a correction of an oversold condition. For stocks to fall again another 50 or 60% from here(because this is where the author might like to "revalue" them), the country's economy would have to regress back to a point where there is 30% unemployment, and we all should grow our own vegetables and hunt buffalo. It ain't gonna happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138871-realty-income-prudent-management-justified-premium?source=feed#comment-516900 516900
In the REIT world, so many have cut or eliminated dividends that it is scary to hold them anymore. The benefit to shareholders is the dividend, and without it, there is little reason to hold a REIT. So far, O has continued to pay theirs, and has managed their considerable debt well. How long will this continue is anyone's guess. The debacle with REITS in the last 24 months has chased me back to the dividend aristocrats such as SYY, KO, JNJ, PG, PAYX and ABT. The dividend pay rates are lower, but they are much less likely to be eliminated or cut. In fact, these companies are raising their dividends every year. So, if you hold these stocks a few years, they will pay a dividend yield comparable to a REIT, based on your original investment, with much less risk.

The rag is off the bush with REITS. Many of us thought they were safe, boring investments which paid a decent income and would be appropriate for conservative investors. I've been trying them for 6 or 7 years now, and I've discovered that nothing could be further from the truth. They are anything but safe and solid, as it's been one heck of a rocky road. I have had some spectacular rises, only to be followed by armaggedon style crashes. Some have gone belly up (i.e. Mills Corp, GGP), some have plummeted to nothing (i.e. HPT, DDR), and many are just plain old disappointing (i.e. WRI, AHT, SPG). REITS actually represent high risk, leveraged-to-the-hilt, life-on-the-edge, white knuckle type investing. The right way for a conservative growth & income investor is to look at the better managed companies with solid business models that have much lower debt, pay 2-4% dividends, with increasing revenue and earnings annually. With the regular dividend increases, dividend aristrocrats will beat REITS, and the companies will unlikely suddenly stop the dividends or get into serious financial trouble like REITS do (seemingly routinely, nowadays). ]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 13:25:57 -0400
In the REIT world, so many have cut or eliminated dividends that it is scary to hold them anymore. The benefit to shareholders is the dividend, and without it, there is little reason to hold a REIT. So far, O has continued to pay theirs, and has managed their considerable debt well. How long will this continue is anyone's guess. The debacle with REITS in the last 24 months has chased me back to the dividend aristocrats such as SYY, KO, JNJ, PG, PAYX and ABT. The dividend pay rates are lower, but they are much less likely to be eliminated or cut. In fact, these companies are raising their dividends every year. So, if you hold these stocks a few years, they will pay a dividend yield comparable to a REIT, based on your original investment, with much less risk.

The rag is off the bush with REITS. Many of us thought they were safe, boring investments which paid a decent income and would be appropriate for conservative investors. I've been trying them for 6 or 7 years now, and I've discovered that nothing could be further from the truth. They are anything but safe and solid, as it's been one heck of a rocky road. I have had some spectacular rises, only to be followed by armaggedon style crashes. Some have gone belly up (i.e. Mills Corp, GGP), some have plummeted to nothing (i.e. HPT, DDR), and many are just plain old disappointing (i.e. WRI, AHT, SPG). REITS actually represent high risk, leveraged-to-the-hilt, life-on-the-edge, white knuckle type investing. The right way for a conservative growth & income investor is to look at the better managed companies with solid business models that have much lower debt, pay 2-4% dividends, with increasing revenue and earnings annually. With the regular dividend increases, dividend aristrocrats will beat REITS, and the companies will unlikely suddenly stop the dividends or get into serious financial trouble like REITS do (seemingly routinely, nowadays). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138976-jnj-don-t-get-fooled-by-dividend-plays?source=feed#comment-516837 516837 Mon, 25 May 2009 12:21:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71976-weingarten-realty-reit-strong-yield-safe-property-portfolio?source=feed#comment-516198 516198 Sun, 24 May 2009 13:46:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134599-mack-cali-late-to-the-follow-on-party?source=feed#comment-516175 516175 shocking to see how this once very successful business has been run
into the ground. While WRI's properties are performing adequately,
unfortunately, the management has trashed the business over the last
decade. They allowed the debt to balloon to $36/share. How does a
fairly small company like this allow their debt to grow to $3.2
billion? The good news is that they have solved the problem by adding
more shares, reducing the debt to somewhere between $20- $26/share.
The bad news is the debt is now $20-$26/share. If they kept all the
dividends to pay off the debt, at the now lofty new dividend rate of
$1/year, it would take 20 years to pay off this debt.

This is what killed the REIT industry. Borrow, borrow and borrow some
more, and don't pay down any debt, just roll it over. Oops, credit is
cut off to the debt junkies. The drinking party is over.
Accordingly, WRI will stagger in a stuporous hangover for years, and
that is if the retail situation doesn't get any worse. Now that
rolling the debt over may no longer be an option, WRI is a potential
bankruptcy candidate, despite a fairly robust business. It's time to
remove the fools in the executive suite and replace with people who
know how to balance a checkbook. ]]> Sun, 24 May 2009 13:16:04 -0400 shocking to see how this once very successful business has been run
into the ground. While WRI's properties are performing adequately,
unfortunately, the management has trashed the business over the last
decade. They allowed the debt to balloon to $36/share. How does a
fairly small company like this allow their debt to grow to $3.2
billion? The good news is that they have solved the problem by adding
more shares, reducing the debt to somewhere between $20- $26/share.
The bad news is the debt is now $20-$26/share. If they kept all the
dividends to pay off the debt, at the now lofty new dividend rate of
$1/year, it would take 20 years to pay off this debt.

This is what killed the REIT industry. Borrow, borrow and borrow some
more, and don't pay down any debt, just roll it over. Oops, credit is
cut off to the debt junkies. The drinking party is over.
Accordingly, WRI will stagger in a stuporous hangover for years, and
that is if the retail situation doesn't get any worse. Now that
rolling the debt over may no longer be an option, WRI is a potential
bankruptcy candidate, despite a fairly robust business. It's time to
remove the fools in the executive suite and replace with people who
know how to balance a checkbook. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137794-cramer-s-mad-money-unhealthy-interest-in-aig-5-14-09?source=feed#comment-506254 506254 Sat, 16 May 2009 03:57:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137756-general-mills-what-the-fdas-warning-means-for-the-market?source=feed#comment-506251 506251 Sat, 16 May 2009 03:48:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137730-short-selling-hedge-funds-started-the-fire?source=feed#comment-504705 504705 Fri, 15 May 2009 00:03:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137736-modest-dividends-point-to-delayed-recovery?source=feed#comment-504704 504704
The author missed an important point when he says "CEOs ploughed cash back into buybacks at the expense of dividend hikes for the most part.". Actually, CEOs plowed the money back into their own pockets with unethical pay raises, undeserved bonuses, and sham backdated stock options. That's the reason to avoid most companies on the market today. I stick with companies that have a fair dividend (3% or greater) with a long history of increasing dividends. Afterall, many of the wealthy in this country did so by holding high quality dividend aristrocrats for decades and are now receiving dividends equal to 100% or more annually based on their original investments. Such companies that could have brought you wealth had you bought them decades ago, especially if you re-invested dividends, include KO, PG, CL, CLX, KMP and ABT. These managements, and others, reward their shareholders rather than steal from them. ]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 23:55:33 -0400
The author missed an important point when he says "CEOs ploughed cash back into buybacks at the expense of dividend hikes for the most part.". Actually, CEOs plowed the money back into their own pockets with unethical pay raises, undeserved bonuses, and sham backdated stock options. That's the reason to avoid most companies on the market today. I stick with companies that have a fair dividend (3% or greater) with a long history of increasing dividends. Afterall, many of the wealthy in this country did so by holding high quality dividend aristrocrats for decades and are now receiving dividends equal to 100% or more annually based on their original investments. Such companies that could have brought you wealth had you bought them decades ago, especially if you re-invested dividends, include KO, PG, CL, CLX, KMP and ABT. These managements, and others, reward their shareholders rather than steal from them. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135881-martin-weiss-a-depression-is-unavoidable?source=feed#comment-492925 492925 Wed, 06 May 2009 19:12:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133983-pharmaceutical-stocks-remain-a-buy?source=feed#comment-486619 486619 Sat, 02 May 2009 11:45:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133176-healthcare-stocks-have-a-serious-drug-problem?source=feed#comment-478503 478503 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:21:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133130-looking-forward-to-more-dividend-increases-like-johnson-johnson-s?source=feed#comment-478498 478498 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:10:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133202-equities-are-likely-heading-lower-resist-the-temptation-to-short-them?source=feed#comment-478492 478492
The author is also clueless about Pfizer (PFE). The reason they cut their dividend was to stockpile cash for the Wyeth buyout. Had nothing to do with the economy or going back in time to 1929. Bears romanticize about 1929 in this forum and wax fawningly over their overly pessimistic leaders. In this case, comparing the PFE dividend with the depression of the 1930s is not only inappropriate, but dead wrong.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:04:24 -0400
The author is also clueless about Pfizer (PFE). The reason they cut their dividend was to stockpile cash for the Wyeth buyout. Had nothing to do with the economy or going back in time to 1929. Bears romanticize about 1929 in this forum and wax fawningly over their overly pessimistic leaders. In this case, comparing the PFE dividend with the depression of the 1930s is not only inappropriate, but dead wrong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133193-sentiment-overview-optimism-decreases-for-first-time-in-this-rally?source=feed#comment-478485 478485 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:51:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131680-be-bop-sudden-stop-of-capital-flows-into-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-470638 470638 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 01:15:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131319-this-market-is-ridiculous?source=feed#comment-466096 466096 Fri, 17 Apr 2009 00:26:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131040-procter-and-gamble-shatters-dividend-myths-in-current-economy?source=feed#comment-464681 464681 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 02:17:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131093-don-t-forget-sell-the-news?source=feed#comment-464667 464667 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 01:56:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130993-john-hussman-revulsion-should-precede-true-market-bottom?source=feed#comment-464432 464432 Wed, 15 Apr 2009 21:01:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129729-leaving-the-dow-jones-alone-would-ve-been-the-best-thing?source=feed#comment-454236 454236 Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:20:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129461-dividend-stocks-review-march-2009?source=feed#comment-452873 452873 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 22:51:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128614-the-great-reit-unravelling-begins-simon-property-group-defaults-on-loan?source=feed#comment-447402 447402 Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:36:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128229-mcdonalds-dividend-stock-analysis?source=feed#comment-443285 443285 Sat, 28 Mar 2009 09:06:45 -0400