Joshua Morgan Brown's Comments

Major Changes Coming to India's Gold Market

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:12:06 -0400

Hey Carlos,
Thanks for reading...I don't come across in this piece with a strong opinion on what the effects will be, my goal here was simply to frame the debate.

That said, I would imagine that cultural signifcance or not, someone who needs to feed their family in Inida or elsewhere would probably melt and sell...

what are your thoughts?

On Jul 07 11:39 AM Carlos Lam wrote:

> The author's article reveals an inconsistency that I call on him
> to answer: is gold ownership in India primarily for wealth storage
> or primarily "of cultural significance?" If the former, then there
> may indeed be a dampening of import demand. However, in the long-term
> may even such a dampening be "dampened" itself by India's rising
> middle class?
>
> If the latter, then I fail to see how a large portion of Indians'
> gold jewelry will be monetized; will a prized ornament, for example,
> be thoughtlessly melted down and converted to gold bars? That sounds
> strange. I am unfamiliar, however, with Indian customs vis-a-vis
> heirlooms; their view of prized ornaments may differ from ours.

Smart Balance: A Smart Investment

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:17:06 -0400

For the record, the title of this article is the editor's, not mine, I simply believe that SMBL is an interesting company worth watching, nowhere in my writing do I call it "a smart investment".

Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap - A New ETF for Exposure to Brazil

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:50:53 -0400

yeah, you want to get exposure to the new middle classes in these countries, the materials and mining exposure is easy to do via large cap adr's and existing etf's

good pickup Mark, I usually let these things trade for a little bit before jumping in

for RiskReturnOptimizer...... at VSS, international small cap...I doubt it has a lot of mexico, but its a starting point i suppose.

great article!

Does Anyone Else Miss Stock Picking?

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 08:42:02 -0400

lol!

u got me

thx for reading

On May 29 02:27 PM Bunse wrote:

> Look at how happy the adorable little girl in Joshua Morgan Brown's
> picture looks. She looks like she thinks she's taking a picture with
> "Goose" from the movie "Top Gun".
>
> *ZING*

Does Anyone Else Miss Stock Picking?

Thu, 28 May 2009 12:00:04 -0400

Freya, I completely agree, and PE ratios based on trough earnings (maybe) are very far down on my list of indicators.

The fun part is doing what you said, finding where the "E" is getting bigger

On May 28 09:43 AM Freya wrote:

> You can treat ETF/ETNs as individual stocks from a charting aspect,
> I know I do.
>
> Wait until this this quarters results are factored into your current
> 40 PE. You should really do some historical research into the PEs
> during prolonged Earning downcycles.
>
> I've seen a PE of a 100 on the Dow, even Negative earnings for a
> quarter. PE's are not some sort of "sacred cow" to bow before.

>
> What you should be doing is taking a look at what the "write offs"
> will do for sheltering future earnings of otherwise Solid Companies.

Does Anyone Else Miss Stock Picking?

Thu, 28 May 2009 08:58:13 -0400

see also: Shakespearean Lesson for Market Commentators:

thereformedbroker.com/.../

Why Ackman's Got Beef with Target

Tue, 26 May 2009 08:17:25 -0400

My follow up after Ackman's CNBC interview:

thereformedbroker.com/.../

The Rise of the Silver Surfer

Mon, 25 May 2009 23:07:49 -0400

Thanks for your comments SOCPHD

Allow me to substantiate some of my "nonsense", I'm in a good mood so what the hell...

The Slingshot Effect is a very real phenomenon. Silver maven Ted Butler has written a great deal on the subject, as have many other metals watchers who are infinitely more educated on the subject than you or I. Here is another example of the Slingshot Effect being quoted, so you don't just chalk up this possibility to "my imagination":
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Silver has been a form of currency dating back at least to Ancient Sumeria, as I mention in the article. This is one of the oldest major civilizations on record. Is that a long enough time back for you?

Gresham's law is multi-faceted, and does indeed have important ramifications for the gold to silver price in currencies and commodities

I do not recall indicating anywhere in the article that I have a degree in geology, yet 10 minutes worth of research or 10 days worth of research will likely lead you to the conclusion that my 15 to 1 ratio of silver to gold is widely-accepted and fairly accurate. If you want to refute that, take it up with the Natural History or Minerals and Metals scholars, that's not my debate.

Lastly, I don't need to push anything on my clients, but I appreciate your attempt to get nasty and personal with me...very nice. I am sorry for the frustration this world must cause you, but trust me, you do not have to worry about ever being one of my clients.

Thanks for reading.

On May 24 05:41 PM socphd71 wrote:

> 1. Low commodity prices are a danger for SLW. The miners from
> whom they are buying will reduce their output in response to low
> prices for their base metals. Thus, they have less silver to sell
> to SLW.
>
> 2. The author (J.M. Brown) mixes good sense with nonsense. There
> is more of the former, but watch out for the latter. (a) What is
> the history of the gold: silver 15:1 ratio? Gold has been used for
> millenia. Silver for how long? I don't know. So this statement
> is completely unsubstantiated. (b) How long have people known that
> the ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 15:1? vs. How
> long have people been buying, selling, and minting silver and gold?
> (c) Gresham's law is: "Bad money drives out good." (d) The "slingshot
> effect" is ridiculous. It shows that Mr. Brown has an excellent
> imagination. If he uses ideas like this to sell to his clients,
> I'm glad I'm not one.
>
> 3. One can find lots of junior miners on the Agora.com website.
> Then you can do your own homework.
>
> Disclosure: long Energold Drilling (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> FNX Mining (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), ECU silver mining
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). These all trade under different
> symbols on Canadian exchanges.

The Rise of the Silver Surfer

Fri, 22 May 2009 10:46:42 -0400

ok, I appreciate your insights, as I stated at the bottom of the article, I was not writing as "the foremost authority" and I was actually looking for informational feedback.

But please do tell, if silver is not currently trading slightly above 14, then where is it? Am I looking at prices from an alternate universe or something?

I didnt discuss manipulation or the attempt to corner by the Hunts in my piece but your commentary of such was a welcome addition to the discussion here.

On May 22 10:38 AM one eye wrote:

> I do not have a clue as to what the ACTUAL price of silver would
> have been Had the Hunts not made their bid to Corner the Market.
> You don't either.
>
> Using a Historic, Manipulated price adjusted for Inflation is not
> justifiable.
>
> Apparently you do not keep up with the markets either. Silver is
> not "slightly" above $14.
>
> Gold was at $1,000 and silver at $20 last year, thats a 50 to 1 ratio
> just like the CEF ratio which has been maintained for DECADES also.
>
>
> If gold were adjusted for Inflation, some have pegged a fair current
> Value somewhere North of $2,000. This correlation should apply to
> Silver as well. Working Backwards, The $850 Gold price of acheived
> in the Last go around gives Silver "An all time" 1980 price of $17
> and correlates quite well with what occurred in 2008.
>
> To me, that Translates into a minimal current Price Of $19/oz. given
> that stupidity reigns in the Silver Markets and the decline in production
> has been A Known since last year, Silver should have the capability
> to Overshadow the price of Gold on a percentage basis by at least
> 2 to 1.
>
> That Manipulated All time High of $50 may actually be reached on
> a self-fulfilling basis.

Credit Cards, Guns and Ammo: Thanks, Washington

Thu, 21 May 2009 22:35:15 -0400

trust me, Im no friend to the credit card industry or their usurious ways, but I also don't feel as though putting additional pressure on these already damaged lenders is going to help the consumer get access to credit.

and for the gun guys...im not anti-second amendment and I've been in some of the most incredible public land we have available in this country, I just don't understand what the f%$# this provision needed to be shoveled into a consumer protection act. This is the kind of BS politics that should sicken every last one of you.

On May 21 05:17 PM Third Party Guy wrote:

> "banks and card companies would be required to give 45 days’ notice
> before a change in interest rates…"
>
> Wow, you mean a signed contract with a Credit Card company will actually
> be held within the standards of contract law?? Say it ain't so!
>
>
> Dear Mr. Brown,
> Your outrage is missed placed. You should have been outraged when
> the bank lobby got the law passed through Congress that allowed them
> to flatly ignore contract agreements.

Credit Cards, Guns and Ammo: Thanks, Washington

Thu, 21 May 2009 11:30:31 -0400

i guess you and i have a different view of recreation....i have no problem with hunting or defense against animals, but c'mon...should we have a blanket law allowing loaded guns in every park, where kids are playing no less?

What could the benefit possibly be other than to satiate the "slippery slope" crowd, and what in Crom's name does it have to do with credit cards?

On May 21 11:24 AM 2houndz wrote:

> You mean that I can now defend myself against grizzly bears when
> I visit Glacier National Park? You are right - no American should
> be able to do that.

Reinstate the Uptick Rule?

Thu, 14 May 2009 10:55:00 -0400

pity you stopped reading the article....cause if you did, maybe you would've commented on what I actually wrote, instead of what you thought would be written.

I don't recall defending naked shorting or endorsing 3x leveraged ETFs.

Maybe you're referring to someone else's article.

On May 14 10:27 AM irieblue wrote:

> I stopped reading this crap article at the point where you said "trader’s
> right to short". What I think you meant to say was Short and Distort.
> Re-instating the uptick rule is not about sticking it to legitimate
> short sellers, it is about the abusive Naked Short Selling and Failing
> to Deliver shares past the T+3 settlement period. It is about 3X
> Leveraged ETF's that circumvent the Margin requirements as set out
> by Reg T, a Federal Reserve Mandate. WTF don't you get . With a meaningful
> uptick rule these ETF's cant' exist because may buy put options in
> the individual securities, and there is no way they will work if
> there needs to be an uptick in all the underlying securities.

U.S. Bank Shares: Pump Almost Over, Get Ready for the Dump

Tue, 12 May 2009 07:04:02 -0400

this is borderline reckless

"Since when is slashing dividends and diluting shareholder stock in the best interests of shareholders"

The smartest thing the banks can do right now TO BENEFIT SHAREHOLDERS is to raise capital. the preferred coupon to the TARP is in the way of ever being able to increase buybacks or dividends as things improve. They need to clean that up and pay back the gov so they can get back to business. Smart managers sell stock when they can, and right now, these banks are able to sell stock easily. The secondaries are being placed so quickly that the roadshows to promote the offerings are being cancelled. It would be scary if the banks didnt use this window that they didn't have just 7 weeks ago.

Kindle's Here - Close the Book on Barnes & Noble

Wed, 06 May 2009 10:38:39 -0400

i completely agree GetMe...i note in my piece that it won't exactly be smooth sailing for amazon with other competition

thanks for reading

Josh

On May 06 09:08 AM GetMeOnTop wrote:

> OK, agree with most of what you say, but need to really throw one
> thing into the mix - The new but yet unannounced Apple tablet/netbook/newton
> gizmo/gadget/computer/...
>
> The implications are huge for the Kindle (most number show sales
> of iphone/ipod touch to be 60 times greater) as a device, and for
> the presumption of the demise of Barnes & Noble and your corner
> newsstand.
>
> I don't think one needs to be a soothsayer to predict that in 5 or
> maybe 10 years most physical (aka paper) reading will be a thing
> of the past!

A who's who of financial bloggers. (Great resource, but why oh why no hyperlinks?)

Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:49:22 -0400

no hyperlinks cause daddy's a traffic hog

lol

A Ford Turnaround?

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 09:17:45 -0400

the difference being, Toyota doesn't lose money in perpetuity

On Apr 25 03:21 PM Mister Jimmy wrote:

> "Only in Detroit", states the author? Get your facts straight. Virtually
> every auto maker in the world is losing money right now, with Toyota
> in particular suffering huge losses due to aggressive over-expansion.

A Ford Turnaround?

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 09:16:59 -0400

hey, my clients own GM common incidentally...i dont recommend every stock that gets transferred in to my firm from another brokerage...i have to make those disclosures if I have an account under my wing that is long or short, whether or not I advised the position.

thanks for reading.

JB

On Apr 25 02:25 PM DonFurio wrote:

> They still have a lot of fixed costs, and I have to question why
> you or your clients hold GM common, however you are dead on about
> Alan M. and the debt conversion.

Vikram vs. Kenny: Which CEO Will Be Ousted First?

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 08:23:43 -0400

yeah thats basically my assessment...Vikram showed up in the 8th inning

thx for reading
JB

On Apr 22 05:40 AM Roscat wrote:

> Kenny only. Give Vikram some time.

Stress Test: How Can It Be Capitalism Without Competition?

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:20:32 -0400

hey fellas, i think the real point, which i did not make, is that the stress test were a bad idea, at the least the public mention of them.

either all the banks pass, in which the tests are BS, or there are seriously bad results that scare the hell out of investors and may fiorce a bank into BK

not a good choice

thx for reading

First Publicly Traded Marijuana Company

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 20:38:14 -0400

buy low, SELL HIGH

thx for reading!

On Apr 15 08:15 PM rudya wrote:

> Once our government realizes that prohibition does not work, it will
> be able to regulate and tax marijuana just as it does alcohol and
> tobacco.
>
> Instead we spend $billions on a "war on drugs" that has been going
> on for decades that we are losing and looks like it will never end.
> Surprise.....surprise, you make something illegal and the criminal
> element moves in and our streets become war zones because there is
> so much profit to be made.
>
> As free marketers well understand, the more people we arrest, the
> more the supply goes down. This has the effect of raising prices
> and inducing even more people to enter the "business".
>
> In one legal move, we can put the criminal gangs out of business,
> end the corruption asociated with this trade, earn tax money, and
> turn law enforcement resources into protecting citizens from violent
> crime. And we can make money through investments such as those in
> the article.

5 Perverse Bailout Consequences

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 08:53:11 -0400

great article, rick...the law of unintended consequences indeed

JB

Goldman Sachs Backlash Is Picking Up Steam

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:55:30 -0400

thx to all for reading, much of the credit for the content belongs to the articles I linked to and I haven't come out on either side forcefully myself...just think people should hear all sides as this issue may get bigger shortly

The Modified Uptick Rule Debate

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:03:50 -0400

thats actually exceptionally witty...i like that!

and must I balance all negative articles with positive ones in-between?

lol

thx for reading

On Apr 06 08:21 PM 123dawson wrote:

> Do I have to wait for another positive comment so I can make a negative
> one?

The Modified Uptick Rule Debate

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 19:45:11 -0400

Neil, its not that gov't officials were on the take...in fact, its much worse...its that gov't officials were FAMILY

the madoff family compliance department were literally INTERMARRIED with the SEC staff

thx for reading

"In this environment, when you own a company (JAVA) that barely has a reason to exist, outside of a programming language (Javascript), you probably shouldn’t f&%@ around when you have a bid from IBM (IBM) on the table." - the reformed broker

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:01:45 -0400

what is the debate about exactly?

did sun management do the right thing for shareholders or not?

i cant imagine that many stockholders like how things went down, unless there is a competing offer out there that no one knows about yet...

On Apr 06 01:50 PM Quasar71 wrote:

> ... the debate is heating up now...

Interesting comment from Quasar71, who thinks Sun Microsystems (JAVA) has a lot more going for it than just "Javascript."

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 13:55:43 -0400

omigod, so clever

not really what the post was about, but congrats on your superior knowledge of Sun Micro's tech offerings...i couldn't care less about that aspect of the story, simply the management decision

"In this environment, when you own a company (JAVA) that barely has a reason to exist, outside of a programming language (Javascript), you probably shouldn’t f&%@ around when you have a bid from IBM (IBM) on the table." - the reformed broker

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 13:41:27 -0400

oh really, William H Jones?

the point of my post IS about the technology offering of the company?

OK. Maybe re-read it, I dont remember having any opinion on that whatsoever.

On Apr 06 01:36 PM William H Jones wrote:

> "... but we can all agree that as far as the nomenclature of Sun's
> Java offerings, its a moot point..."
>
> No.
>

"In this environment, when you own a company (JAVA) that barely has a reason to exist, outside of a programming language (Javascript), you probably shouldn’t f&%@ around when you have a bid from IBM (IBM) on the table." - the reformed broker

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 13:31:54 -0400

apologies for my lack of tech due diligence, but we can all agree that as far as the nomenclature of Sun's Java offerings, its a moot point. The story is that shareholder were done wrong...and longs, dont blame me, i just report the news...i have no horse in this race

While few hedge fund classes outdid the S&P 500's astounding 13.8% gain in March, every single category of hedge fund has outpeformed the broader index YTD - most by a substantial margin. (source)

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 12:56:39 -0400

thereformedbroker.com/.../

still lost 20%

The Modified Uptick Rule Debate

Mon, 06 Apr 2009 12:19:01 -0400

agreed, thx for reading....