javnnf

Better Days in Store for 2009

You get only one life to live-- not long enough to optimize over all the outcomes.
Those who are left with any wisdom should read Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. Here are some quotes:
[The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (April 2007)]
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Please, don’t drive a school bus blindfolded.

Owing to [...] misunderstanding of the causal chains between policy and actions, we can easily trigger Black Swans thanks to aggressive ignorance—like a child playing with a chemistry kit.

Banks hire dull people and train them to be even more dull. If they look conservative, it's only because their loans go bust on rare, very rare occasions. But (...)bankers are not conservative at all. They are just phenomenally skilled at self-deception by burying the possibility of a large, devastating loss under the rug.
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