Douglas Hvistendahl

What Happens If Roubini Is Right?

I've been researching companies that mostly ignored the price drop in March. They might make a better place to park the cash than treasuries. There aren't many of them, though.

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

<i>Are the companies you mentioned public as I cannot find them on Bloomberg.</i>

The Accoya companies are not public. I suggest a search on the name. They sell in railroad car (or semi) size lots at present.

There is a new windmill variation that reduces the amount of material used in the blades for a given amount of wind capture by using multiple blade sets along a shaft. Look at www.selsam.com/. At present, it is only available in small sizes, but it should be scalable. The basic thing is that if you just increase blade sizes, volume goes up as a high power of size. By arranging multiple sets per shaft, you divide by the number of sets.

Here in North Dakota, the situation for wind is IMBY. Ranchers and farmers like having an extra income stream. The amount of actual space used is small, even including access roads, since the towers need to be a large distance from each other to prevent cutting off of the wind. The problem here is transmission capacity. There has been development in the hills west of us, since there is a high power transmission line from Garrison past Aberdeen, and wind quality is level 5. I'd like to see towers on my own quarter, but it is in a low area (one of the few areas in ND that is only level 3), so is unlikely to be wanted soon.

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

For the towers, look at Accoya. A dutch company (Accsys) has developed a method to treat wood for much greater strength and durability. In the US, Titan Wood is their subsidiary. Accoya wood competes with steel and concrete for large structures. The wood is bulkier than steel for the same strength, but a tower is hollow due to the need for stiffness. By just having the walls thicker, you can get the same basic results.

Also, a company named Sanderson Engine Development has an improved mechanism, allowing better hydraulic pumps, air motors, etc. This would allow the heavy generators to be at the bottom, with a lighter mechanism at the top. I believe it is in development stage for one wind turbine at present.

Not saying it would be easy, saying it is possible.

Tapping into Geothermal

Note that in addition to geothermal, there is geoexchange: the conditioning of buildings using heat pumped to and from the ground. Don't know investement opportunities, except the LXU mentioned above, but it works very well.

The Arithmetic of Gold: Why Its Price Has No Ceiling

> I'm thinking more along the lines of personal
> food, shelter and physical security.
>
> My grandmother who is a Hungarian immagrant (lived thru both >the
> Nazis and Communists) taught me only one thing has true >VALUE in
> the world: KNOWLEDGE. All else can be taken away at the >whim of
> a corrupt political environment.
>
> To that end, my advice to anyone who would listen is this: Learn
> to grow your own food, build your own shelter and defend >yourself(guns,
> knifes or fists.)

May I suggest a magazine named "The Mother Earth News?" They decided that oil would be short in a few decades - and started in 1970. Articles from them have helped me do much for myself. At present, we are living on my wife's Social security, and splitting mine 50-50 between investing and giving. Return from former investments are being split with a larger bias toward reinvestment. This is one source of good knowledge. They also sell CDs of the articles from their first 3 decades at one decade/CD. Psalm 126: 5-6 applies here, as in all investing.

The Arithmetic of Gold: Why Its Price Has No Ceiling

The remark was made that panning gold was one of the few ways to create true wealth. A backyard garden (to the limit of what we can eat) has worked very well also. An investment in better insulation, a better heating system, etc. may or may not work well depending on whether you do your homework first. There are many ways to create true wealth. However, we have been trained to stick to the system, rather than to think things through.

Dow’s Solar Shingles: A Solar Product People May Actually Buy

A variation now becoming available is PVT. This uses PV, but collects the waste heat and uses it. Resulting efficiency runs around 70%, and the average cost is lower. Remaining problem: how do you get a plumber?

Golden Rule: Easy Oil Production Means Cheap Oil, Difficult Production Means Expensive Oil

Supply & demand does keep on trumping all the hype, doesn't it!

Why It's Crucial to Reduce Leverage in Oil

A cautious investor can take advantage of volatility, while also acting against it. I'm not into commodities, but with stocks: once the quality of a company has been determined, my buy bid starts near the 52 week low. If no nibbles, it is raised by about 10% of the high-low difference next month. For companies owned who are at the bottom in quality, with the sales, the opposite pattern is used. Some buys and sells are missed, but it improves the odds of buying low and selling high. The effect of one small investor on volatility is small, but if many followed a like pattern, it would add up.

More Vehicles Take E85, But Will It Help?

I buy each type relative to the cost/benefit ratio. Note that an experimental turbocharged engine does as well on E85 as on straight gasoline: it changes the compression ratio to take advantage of the higher octane. Also SAAB has at least one vehicle that is as good mileage on E85 as on low-lead. However, electric storage (BEV, PHEV, and PHAV) are still the most efficient. Except where good mass transit systems exist, or in bicycling ranges.

The Obama Fast Track for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

I was able to invest in MDI a few years back when they were still in the development stage. I could only afford one share - a year's investment cash! Speculative, of course. Very occasionally I see something about someone wanting to sell some shares, but the company is not public and has no plans to become so. If you check into one of these sales, make sure they are really stockholders, you don't want to buy a scam.

On plug ins, it would be interesting to see economic calculations on the effect of the vehicle to grid technology. It has been pointed out that a major vehicle changeover to either plug ins or BEVs would supply more storage than the grid is likely to need. If utilities can "rent" their storage rather than buying it, it could be a win-win situation. However, some calculations would be advisable!!!!

Zenn to Put $2M to $5M More in EEStor, but Questions Linger

In investing, most needs to be placed on currently producing things, lest we go broke. However, for the future, we need to put a small percentage on "Black Swan" possibilities. Hi risk, hi payoff possibilities exist, but it is hard to divide the scams and failures from the successes. Note that venture capitalists expect only roughly one in ten to succeed, even though they work with the primary innovators to increase the chances of success. What keeps them going is the size of these "Black Swan" payoffs.

I don't know enough of the technology to estimate what EEStore or Zenn are. I do know that the cost of innovation is a willingness to fail! At the same time, we need to have a current income, so these things should be a small % of the portfolio.

As for the lottery, etc., there are no "Black Swan" chances there because all the unknowns can be calculated. The average loss probability is 50% per attempt - a rapid loser for most people. For casino gambling loss per attempt is only 5%, still a loser. Much better to speculate - AFTER gathering all the available information. But never forget "Black Swan" events can be negative as well as positive, so don't mortgage the house! ;-)

As for something possible, I'm looking at ("Zero Pollution Motors" AND MDI) and their CAES technology. It is risky, but not gambling. My thought is there has been too much solid engineering work for it to be a scam. There are two entries into the 100MPG X-prize competition - it will be interesting to see the results.

The Obama Fast Track for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs)

There is a lot of discussion as to whether MDI's compressed air energy storage is a scam or just difficult engineering & business. After several years of investigating this, my opinion goes to the latter. If so, it lowers the size required for effective CAES by orders of magnitude. Assuming this, even with the lower energy storage efficiency, it makes better economic sense than a battery powered PHEV. For hybrids using less storage than PHEVs, the battery scenario will likely make the most sense for the reasons you gave. For full storage, the PHAV using multiple compression and expansion may be the best way to go. The first cost is much lower.

I don't know the answer here for sure, but am looking forward to the results of the X-prize competition! Zero Pollution Motors with MDI have entered two different vehicles into it.

Toyota Far Surpasses GM When It Comes to EV

Take a look at MDIs Flow-Aire line. Due out soon, they avoid the battery issue for stored energy vehicles. Hope it works out well - they are taking a big chance on the technology. Search on ("zero pollution motors" AND MDI) and follow up for more data.

Renewable Energy Cost Curves: 1980-2020

One way to make a major improvement in solar is to use a PV/thermal combined system where it pays off. Search on (Solarwall AND Conserval) for one example. There are others. This boosts total efficiency to around 70% at a low increase in costs - provided there is an adequate use for the low temperature thermal heat. One example of that is a combination of domestic hot water preheat and annualized geo solar seasonal heat storage. I'm working on this for my house, doing the low skill & high labor preparation. By the time this is completed, costs on the rest should be down and availability higher.